Full Transcript

Nvidia earnings shows 'unrelenting demand', says Fundstrat's Tom Lee

5:471,071 words · ~5 min readEnglishTranscribed May 22, 2026

AI Summary

The US stock market remains highly resilient with significant year-end upside driven by AI fundamentals and energy independence, though a rolling bear market could target overvalued, non-tech sectors later this year.

Understanding this macroeconomic trajectory helps investors position portfolios ahead of impending late-year headwinds like petroleum product shortages and IPO lockup expirations.

Section summaries

0:06-0:40

Introduction & Market Context

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Sets up the post-Nvidia earnings landscape and introduces the segment's guest, Tom Lee.

0:40-2:23

US Economic Drivers & Consumer Health

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Explains the structural advantages of the US market and explores the K-shaped consumer dynamic.

2:23-3:40

The Private Equity Wealth Effect & AI Gains

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Details how massive private valuations in the AI space will monetize and provide consumer stimulus.

3:40-5:45

Late-Year Market Pullbacks & Sector Outlook

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Breaks down specific risks like petroleum shortages, IPO lockups, and where the rolling bear market will strike.

Key points

US Structural Economic Advantages — The US economy is uniquely positioned compared to global peers due to its dual status as the primary producer of AI innovation and its relative energy independence, which insulates the domestic market from Middle Eastern geopolitical shocks.
The Late-Year Wealth Effect Stimulus — A massive wealth effect is anticipated from high-profile AI-related liquidity events like SpaceX and OpenAI, which have scaled from modest seed rounds to massive private valuations. This monetization acts as a multi-trillion-dollar stimulus for limited partners.
Selective Late-Year Rolling Bear Market — A rolling bear market is anticipated later this year, but it will likely spare key Mag-7 and software names. Instead, it will impact overextended sectors vulnerable to petroleum product shortages and companies diluted by upcoming IPO supply.

“Not only is the US the producer of AI, but we are also relatively energy independent.” — Tom Lee

“Those who are starting to use AI are actually noticing a gain of function on productivity.” — Tom Lee

AI-generated from the transcript. May contain errors.

0:06

>> WELCOME BACK. WE ARE MIXED

0:07

WELL NOW WE'RE HIGHER AS WE

0:09

HEAD TOWARDS THE CLOSE. NOW

0:10

THAT NVIDIA EARNINGS ARE OUT OF

0:12

THE WAY, IS THE AI TRADE ABOUT

0:14

TO TAKE ITS NEXT LEG HIGHER?

0:16

LET'S ASK TOM LEE. HE'S

0:18

FUNDSTRAT'S HEAD OF RESEARCH.

0:19

WELCOME BACK. SO SO HOW DO YOU

0:20

ASSESS THIS NOW. WE'VE WE'VE

0:22

CLEARED THE WAY RIGHT. ALL THE

0:24

AI STUFF IS NOW OUT OF THE WAY.

0:26

WE'RE LOOKING AT YIELDS. WE'RE

0:27

LOOKING AT OIL. WE'RE LOOKING

0:28

AT THE MIDDLE EAST. BUT HOW DO

0:30

YOU FEEL ABOUT THIS MARKET WHEN

0:31

YOU JUST HEARD CHRIS HARVEY AT

0:33

THE TOP OF OUR SHOW SAYING,

0:35

WE'RE GOING TO HAVE AN

0:36

EVERYTHING RALLY THAT'S GOING

0:37

TO TAKE US PAST 8000 BY THE END

0:39

OF THE YEAR?

0:40

>> YEAH. SCOTT.

0:42

>> I THINK THE MARKET IS PRETTY

0:44

HEALTHY.

0:45

>> IT SHOWED.

0:47

>> RESILIENCE IN THE FACE OF

0:48

HIGHER OIL, HIGHER YIELDS. BUT

0:50

I ALSO THINK THE US IS PRETTY

0:52

UNIQUE BECAUSE WE DO HAVE A

0:54

STRUCTURAL DRIVER FOR THE

0:55

ECONOMY, WHICH IS NOT ONLY IS

0:56

THE US THE PRODUCER OF AI, BUT

0:58

WE ARE ALSO RELATIVELY ENERGY

1:01

INDEPENDENT. AND THAT'S BEEN

1:02

EXPOSED BY THIS WAR. AND THE

1:05

CONSUMER IS IN PRETTY GOOD

1:06

SHAPE. SO, I MEAN, I THINK

1:08

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD RUNWAY.

1:09

SO I'D AGREE WITH THE IDEA THAT

1:11

STOCKS COMPARED TO THE START OF

1:12

THIS YEAR HAVE MORE UPSIDE INTO

1:15

YEAR END. WE'VE GOT A FEW

1:17

THINGS WE HAVE TO WORK THROUGH

1:18

AS WE GET LATER THROUGH THE

1:20

YEAR. BUT I THINK FOR NOW THE

1:21

FUNDAMENTALS ARE HEALTHY AND

1:22

THAT'S SUPPORTED BY EARNINGS.

1:23

>> I DON'T KNOW. I DON'T KNOW

1:25

WHAT SHAPE THE CONSUMER IS IN

1:27

TO BE HONEST WITH YOU. I MEAN I

1:29

UNDERSTAND THE K-SHAPED ECONOMY

1:30

OBVIOUSLY TOP OF THE CASE

1:31

BETTER THAN THE BOTTOM OF THE K

1:33

IN TERMS OF THE DURABILITY TO

1:34

KEEP SPENDING. BUT YOU LISTEN

1:35

TO WALMART, WHICH WAS PRETTY

1:37

CAUTIOUS AND YOU'RE LIKE, WHAT

1:38

IS THE REAL STATE OF THE

1:39

CONSUMER? AND IF OIL PRICES

1:41

REMAIN ELEVATED FOR TOO LONG,

1:42

IS THAT THE THING THAT WRECKS

1:44

THE STORY?

1:47

>> SCOTT. YEAH, IN A WAY, IT IS

1:49

CASE SHAPED BECAUSE IF I HAD TO

1:51

SAY, OKAY, WHAT ARE THE THINGS

1:52

THAT ARE SORT OF BALLAST AND

1:54

THINGS MOVING THE CONSUMER, OF

1:55

COURSE, WE KNOW THAT IT'S

1:56

HIGHER GASOLINE, HIGHER FOOD.

1:58

AND OF COURSE, THERE'S GOING TO

2:00

BE A SHORTAGE OF SOME PETROLEUM

2:02

PRODUCTS. BUT ON THE OTHER END

2:04

OF THAT SPECTRUM IS, YOU KNOW,

2:05

THE WEALTH THAT'S GOING TO BE

2:07

CREATED BY THE IPO SPACE, OPEN

2:09

AI, ETC. I MEAN, THAT'S SEVERAL

2:11

TRILLION DOLLARS WORTH. AND AS

2:13

WE KNOW, THERE'S LIKE A

2:14

MARGINAL PROPENSITY TO CONSUME

2:15

FROM THE WEALTH EFFECT. SO I

2:16

THINK THE CONSUMER IS GETTING A

2:18

TAILWIND LATER THIS YEAR. BUT A

2:19

LOT OF IT IS IF FOR THOSE WHO

2:21

OWN EQUITY.

2:23

>> I MEAN, A TAILWIND FROM THE

2:25

FROM OWNING THE IPOS.

2:27

>> WELL, IT'S ACTUALLY THE

2:29

PRIVATE INVESTORS, AS WE KNOW,

2:32

SPACE WAS PROBABLY SEATED AT,

2:34

YOU KNOW, $50 MILLION. IT

2:36

PROBABLY RAISED, YOU KNOW, TENS

2:37

OF BILLIONS OVER THE LAST

2:40

DECADE, BUT NOW IT'S GOING TO

2:41

HAVE A NET WORTH VALUATION OF

2:43

AROUND 1.7 TRILLION. SO THAT

2:46

THAT'S ACTUALLY NOW GOING TO BE

2:48

MONETIZED FOR THE LPS OF THE

2:50

FUNDS THAT INVESTED IN SPACE.

2:52

SO THEY'RE, YOU KNOW, SEVERAL

2:53

TRILLION DOLLARS IS QUITE A LOT

2:55

OF STIMULUS TO THE ECONOMY.

2:56

>> WOW. OKAY. HAMPTONS REAL

2:58

ESTATE MARKET. WATCH OUT, AI

3:00

TRADE. HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT IT

3:03

AFTER NVIDIA?

3:06

>> I MEAN, A COMPANY WITH THE

3:10

SIZE OF REVENUES NVIDIA GROWING

3:11

AT. I THINK SHOWS THAT THERE IS

3:15

STILL, YOU KNOW, UNRELENTING

3:18

DEMAND FOR FOR THE PRODUCT

3:19

NVIDIA SELLS. AND THEN WE KNOW

3:22

THAT THOSE WHO ARE STARTING TO

3:24

USE AI ARE ACTUALLY NOTICING A

3:27

GAIN OF FUNCTION ON

3:28

PRODUCTIVITY. YOU KNOW, KEN

3:29

GRIFFIN REALLY STATED IT WELL

3:30

WHEN HE SAYS HE COULD SEE THIS

3:32

REPLACING A LOT OF ANALYSTS. SO

3:33

TO ME, I THINK NOT ONLY ARE THE

3:35

USERS OF AI BENEFITING, BUT

3:37

THERE'S STILL A SHORTAGE OF

3:38

THOSE WHO ARE SUPPLYING THE

3:39

EQUIPMENT.

3:40

>> BUT AREN'T YOU STILL CALLING

3:41

FOR A PULLBACK IN STOCKS AND

3:43

SOMETHING MEANINGFUL LIKE THE

3:45

ONE WE HAD ALREADY DIDN'T

3:46

REALLY QUALIFY, IF YOU WILL,

3:49

UNDER WHAT YOU WERE THINKING

3:50

COULD HAPPEN, RIGHT?

3:53

>> THAT'S RIGHT. SCOTT. I THINK

3:54

WE HAD LIKE WHAT YOU WOULD CALL

3:56

A ROLLING BEAR MARKET AND

3:58

THINGS LIKE MAG-7 AND OF COURSE

4:01

LAST YEAR IN ENERGY, BUT IN

4:03

SOFTWARE, ETC. BUT I THINK

4:05

LATER THIS YEAR THE MARKET IS

4:06

GOING TO CONFRONT A FEW THINGS.

4:07

YOU KNOW, ONE, OF COURSE, IS

4:09

JUST YOUR TYPICAL MIDTERM

4:11

SEASONALITY, YOU KNOW, THE

4:12

UNCERTAINTY INTO THAT. THE

4:13

SECOND IS THAT THERE IS A A DAY

4:15

OF RECKONING COMING BECAUSE THE

4:17

INVENTORY OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS

4:18

IS SHORT AND NOT BEING

4:20

ALLEVIATED ANYTIME SOON. AND

4:23

THE THIRD IS WE PROBABLY HAVE

4:25

SOME CONCERNS LATER AS THE AS

4:27

THESE IPOS COME, SPACE OPEN AI,

4:30

ETC. THAT THERE'S A LOCKUP

4:31

EXPIRATION LATER. SO I THINK

4:33

THAT'S A SUPPLY OVERHANG. SO I

4:34

THINK THAT DYNAMIC COMES TO

4:36

PLAY LATER THIS YEAR. BUT IN

4:38

THE MEANTIME, I THINK INVESTORS

4:39

ARE FOCUSING ON AI FUNDAMENTALS.

4:42

AND YOU KNOW, THERE'S REAL

4:43

SHORTAGE. AND STOCKS THAT ARE

4:45

WORKING ARE THE ONES THAT ARE

4:46

SELLING SOMETHING THAT'S SCARCE.

4:47

>> TOM I WANT TO MAKE SURE I

4:49

HEARD YOU RIGHT. ARE YOU

4:50

CALLING FOR A ROLLING BEAR

4:51

MARKET IN MAG-7 NAMES BECAUSE

4:54

IS THAT WHAT YOU'RE LOOKING FOR.

4:56

YOU LOOK FOR THESE STOCKS TO

4:57

BECOME WEAKER AT SOME POINT AND

5:00

DRAMATICALLY SO AT SOME POINT

5:02

THIS YEAR. IS THAT IS THAT WHAT

5:04

I HEARD YOU SAY?

5:05

>> NO. TO CLARIFY, I THINK THAT

5:06

I THINK WE'VE ALREADY HAD A

5:08

BEAR MARKET IN MAG-7 AND

5:09

SOFTWARE. I THINK THERE'S GOING

5:11

TO BE A BEAR MARKET IN OTHER

5:13

STOCKS LATER THIS YEAR. YES,

5:15

BUT I THINK IT'S GOING TO SPARE

5:17

THE MAG-7 AND SOFTWARE. SO IT'S

5:19

GOING TO BE NAMES THAT EITHER

5:21

GOT LOFTY OR ARE GOING TO BE

5:24

AFFECTED BY THE FACT THAT THERE

5:26

IS A LOT OF SUPPLY OF NEW STOCK

5:28

LATER THIS YEAR, OR THE

5:29

COMPANIES THAT ARE GOING TO GET

5:30

HIT BY THIS SHORTAGE IN

5:32

PETROLEUM PRODUCTS. SO I THINK

5:33

THERE'S REASONS THAT WE COULD

5:34

HAVE HEADWINDS LATER THIS YEAR.

5:35

>> ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT LIKE

5:37

SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS?

5:41

>> YEAH. SEMIS MAY BECOME A

5:42

BUBBLE THERE. THEY TO ME THEY

5:44

DON'T SEEM LIKE A BUBBLE YET.

5:45

YOU KNOW WHEN NV

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