Full Transcript

·YouTLDR

Google Is Fooling Everyone

35:37EnglishTranscribed Jun 4, 2026
0:00

Today on the Joseph Carlson show, this

0:01

is not something you see every day.

0:03

Google is seeking $80 billion for an AI

0:07

buildout. They're actually raising

0:08

capital through selling shares delution.

0:11

This is incredible. This is one of the

0:13

biggest equity raises I've ever seen

0:15

from a publicly traded company. In fact,

0:16

it may be the biggest ever. And we're

0:18

going to be going over all of it. A lot

0:20

of people have this news wrong. There

0:22

are tons of tweets that are giving

0:24

analysis and takes on it and hot takes

0:27

on what Google's doing. Many people say

0:29

that this is a time to be bearish, that

0:31

what we should be doing is being scared

0:32

of what Google's doing now. And I don't

0:34

believe that's the case. In fact, this

0:36

is one of the most strategic moves that

0:38

Google has ever done. And we'll be going

0:40

into all of it this episode. Now, of

0:42

course, we have a lot of other news to

0:43

get into. For example, Tom Lee recently

0:45

went on to CNBC and he upped the ante.

0:47

He said that the stock market may go on

0:49

to the biggest run that we've ever seen

0:51

over the next couple of years. We also

0:53

have news that two YouTubers are turning

0:55

the box office upside down. We have two

0:58

YouTubers that just made the movie The

1:00

Back Rooms and Obsession, and both of

1:02

them are massive hits at the box office.

1:04

In fact, there's now Variety and

1:06

different magazines saying that

1:07

YouTubers are taking over Hollywood.

1:10

What does this mean? We'll be looking at

1:11

this as well. And then finally, we get

1:13

to the fail of the week, which in this

1:14

case is Andrew Left, the infamous

1:17

shortseller. He's taken contrarian

1:19

positions on many companies. He was

1:21

found guilty of scheming to manipulate

1:23

stock market via media campaigns. This

1:25

short seller, Andrew left, will very

1:27

likely face jail time and a lot of it up

1:29

to 25 years based on this conviction.

1:32

But what did he do? Was it so bad? We'll

1:34

be going over the whole case in this

1:36

fail of the week. Now, just a quick

1:37

mention. If you haven't tried out

1:38

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adding new things. Qualrum, of course,

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that we do analysis on. Uh we have a

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people thought this one was so good that

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it out now risk-f free at qual.com. Now,

2:41

to kick things off, we have to jump into

2:43

what I believe is some of the biggest

2:44

news that we've seen all year. This is

2:47

massive and it's actually unprecedented.

2:49

We have a company the size of Google,

2:52

the balance sheet of Google, the

2:54

financial strength of Google that

2:56

doesn't have enough money. And in fact,

2:58

they don't have enough money to the

2:59

extent that they're going to the equity

3:02

markets. They're going to delution to be

3:03

able to raise money. The Wall Street

3:05

Journal says that Google's seeking $80

3:07

billion for an AI buildout. From the

3:09

Google press release themselves, this is

3:11

from Google themselves. They say

3:13

Alphabet announces a proposed $80

3:16

billion equity capital raise to expand

3:19

AI infrastructure and compute. Now to

3:22

put this in simple terms, this means

3:24

that Google is willing to dilute the

3:26

shareholder to issue more shares worth

3:29

$80 billion so that they can transfer

3:31

those shares into cash and to be able to

3:32

use that $80 billion for compute and

3:35

infrastructure and whatever they want.

3:37

They have to dilute the shareholder to

3:39

be able to get this cash. And

3:41

immediately this raises a lot of

3:42

questions. For example, Google is one of

3:45

the most profitable and largest

3:47

companies in the world. Typically when

3:49

we see companies that are diluting

3:51

shareholders, you think of a much

3:53

smaller, less profitable company, one

3:55

that hasn't reached its operating

3:56

leverage and its scale and its profits.

3:58

Those are typically the ones that are

4:00

diluting shareholders. But Google is

4:02

neither small nor unprofitable. Google

4:05

is massive and highly profitable. In

4:07

fact, Google is one of the most

4:08

profitable companies on planet Earth. To

4:11

illustrate this, we can take a look at

4:12

Google's net income. This really shows

4:15

off how much money this company produces

4:17

every single quarter and every single

4:19

year. If we look at the net income on a

4:21

trailing 12-month basis, this is what it

4:22

looks like. It's up to 160 billion. Now,

4:26

part of this is because of a one-time

4:29

investment recognition. If we even

4:31

normalize from that, Google still makes

4:33

on a normalized basis over 130 billion

4:37

per year.

4:39

130 billion every year in net income.

4:42

Google's operating cash flow was 174

4:46

billion in the trailing 12 months. That

4:48

puts them as one of, if not the most

4:51

profitable company in the world. They'll

4:52

probably be beat by only Nvidia this

4:54

year. So Google is massively, massively

4:58

profitable. Like this is a company that

5:00

makes the money that nations do. It it

5:02

is an insane level of profitability yet

5:05

they don't have enough money and that

5:07

again is a headscratcher. Why does

5:09

Google need to raise money? Now the

5:11

reactions to this were equally perplexed

5:13

and in many cases a lot of people were

5:15

concerned about Google. We have people

5:17

like this Gary Marcus on X saying why

5:19

things will eventually fall apart.

5:21

Everybody, even Google, seems to be

5:22

treating AI as if it were some kind of

5:24

winner take all competition like web

5:27

search was in which Google can take over

5:29

95%. But everybody is building

5:31

essentially the same technological

5:33

solutions and essentially the same data.

5:35

So there is no mode. He continues on

5:37

showing how Google is overspending and

5:40

they're not going to have good returns.

5:42

We have other people on Twitter sharing

5:45

these tweets of of skepticism and shock.

5:47

We have liquidity here saying that

5:48

Google is raising $80 billion in equity

5:51

a week before SpaceX is trying to raise

5:53

75 billion a few months before Anthropic

5:56

and OpenAI are trying to raise 100

5:57

billion from investors. And you're

5:59

laughing. This is a cataclysmic exit

6:02

liquidity avalanche. And then he has the

6:05

meme of the big short of him Michael

6:07

Bomb in this saying that it's a bubble.

6:10

Jerry Capital saying Google equity raise

6:12

summarized and it's a a meme of the

6:14

joker burning cash. And there's more and

6:16

more of that. Twitter and X are full of

6:19

people that are completely shocked at

6:21

this. People that are saying that this

6:23

is the end of Google. It's the beginning

6:24

of the end. It's a bubble and everything

6:26

is going to come crumbling down. But as

6:28

I've done many times in the past, and it

6:30

will come as no surprise to you, I am

6:32

once again going to defend Google. No, I

6:35

do not believe that Google is lighting

6:37

money on fire. No, I do not believe that

6:40

this is the beginning of some big bubble

6:41

that's going to burst. And no, I do not

6:44

believe that Google's spending hundreds

6:46

of billions of dollars to build an

6:47

undiversified nomote business. All of

6:50

that is wrong. What's going on here

6:53

actually makes Google a much better

6:55

investment. And I'll be going over why.

6:57

Now, first of all, to look at my

6:59

position with Google, I think is

7:00

important. I have here in the passive

7:02

income portfolio, which I made it so you

7:05

can just see all the holdings here. So,

7:06

this is the passive income portfolio,

7:08

and I have a position in Google here.

7:11

It's a $130,000 position with 65,000 of

7:14

that being in the green. So, this one's

7:17

up over 136%. So, Google in just that

7:20

one portfolio is already a fairly large

7:22

position, but that's not the only place

7:24

that I hold it. I also have the story

7:26

fund and I have another large position

7:27

in Google here. $85,000 worth and 57,000

7:32

of that is gains. This one's up 382%.

7:35

So, when I look at this combined,

7:37

Google's around a 16% position. It is

7:39

fairly large. It's around a4 million

7:41

dollar position with over half of it

7:43

being gains. And I've held this company

7:45

for years and I've consistently defended

7:47

Google over and over again. And I

7:49

believe this is another case worthy of

7:51

defending Google for a few different

7:52

reasons. First of all, we can actually

7:54

look at what Google's doing here. They

7:56

are raising $80 billion in equity

7:58

capital to expand AI infrastructure. So,

8:01

they're basically diluting shareholders

8:02

to make it so that they have more cash

8:04

to invest in AI. And right off the bat,

8:07

that tells me a couple things. One of

8:09

them is that Google's belief in AI is

8:13

absolute. It is without question. They

8:16

don't just simply have a suspicion. They

8:19

don't simply have some speculation that

8:21

AI is a real thing. No, they believe it

8:23

100%. They're 100% convinced. So, if you

8:27

have any type of speculation or any type

8:29

of question that AI is going to have

8:31

attractive returns and it's going to

8:32

have demand, Google's already a bit

8:34

ahead of you. It's no longer a question

8:36

in their mind. They have a million data

8:38

points at their business, maybe a

8:39

billion data points. Of course, they

8:41

have search, they have Gemini, and then

8:42

they have their massive cloud business

8:44

that they have tons of enterprise

8:46

clients. And every single data point

8:48

they have, their entire business is

8:51

telling them they need more capacity.

8:53

They need more compute. They cannot

8:55

fulfill on all of the projects they're

8:57

trying to do across their vast empire

9:00

without the capacity. So, to them, this

9:03

is not a speculative bet. It's not

9:05

something that they're rolling the dice

9:07

on. Sundar Pachai did not wake up and

9:09

say, "You know what? It seems kind of

9:11

risky, but I think I'm just going to

9:12

roll the dice, invest $80 billion into

9:15

AI, and hope things turn out well."

9:17

That's not what's going on here. They

9:19

already know. They already have the

9:21

answer. What they're signaling to

9:23

investors here is that Google is

9:25

absolutely certain of AI demand without

9:28

any question. There is no way Google

9:30

would be putting this much capital at

9:32

this scale and this size without that

9:35

absolute certainty. And this isn't

9:36

something that was decided overnight

9:38

either. Google has for a long time

9:40

period their management has said and

9:42

signaled over and over again that right

9:44

now their biggest concern by far is the

9:47

unprecedented demand for compute

9:49

capacity. And the biggest concern for

9:52

Sundar Pachchai is not being able to

9:54

fulfill that compute capacity. He's

9:56

repeatedly mentioned this. In fact,

9:57

Sunder Pachai said just in February of

9:59

this year, quote, "What keeps us up at

10:01

night, we've been at this AI first

10:04

trajectory for over a decade." Pchai

10:06

said, pointing to years of investment in

10:09

custom chips like tensor processing

10:10

units, the TPUs. He went on to mention

10:13

that this current momentum in this

10:16

demand presents a unique challenge.

10:18

Quote, "The top question is definitely

10:20

around capacity." Pachai said all

10:23

constraints bet on power, land, supply

10:26

chain constraints. How do you ramp up to

10:28

meet this extraordinary demand for this

10:30

moment? He says that we got our

10:32

investments right for a long time and

10:34

we've done it all in a way of driving

10:36

efficiencies and doing it in a world in

10:38

a worldclass way. Google has been in the

10:40

right place at the right time over and

10:42

over again. Look at their investments

10:43

that they did in Whimo. Were those

10:45

poorly illustrated investments? No, they

10:47

did quite well. Look at their

10:49

investments that they did in artificial

10:51

intelligence and models. Chachbt got the

10:53

release first, but Google had been

10:54

working at that for a long period of

10:56

time and now Gemini is one of the top

10:58

used models. Look at their investments

10:59

in TPUs. Google is decades ahead of that

11:02

and comparison to companies like

11:04

Microsoft. Another present investment

11:06

for Google. Sundar Pachai has been on

11:08

top of this for a long period of time.

11:10

And right now he feels like the

11:12

unprecedented demand in AI is their

11:14

single biggest constraint. It is the

11:17

single biggest thing preventing them

11:19

from winning this entire race, from

11:20

consolidating an enormous amount of AI

11:23

demand under Google. Now, you may

11:25

question whether or not Sundar Pachai is

11:27

right. What if this is just a bet that

11:28

they're getting wrong? But in Google's

11:30

mind, what they're seeing right now as

11:33

they're running their business is that

11:34

they have all of the tools, they have

11:36

the TPUs, they have the best models,

11:37

they have the cyber security, they have

11:39

all the infrastructure, they have all

11:40

the distribution, but they do not have

11:42

the compute capacity. And Google's in a

11:44

situation where they're turning away

11:46

great customers, saying, "You know what?

11:48

We can't take your money because we

11:50

don't have enough capacity to fulfill

11:52

your demand. They are turning away

11:54

enterprise clients because they can't

11:57

provide enough capacity." Can you

11:59

imagine how frustrating it is as a

12:01

business to sit there with all all this

12:04

planning that you've done, all this

12:05

research, owning the best models, having

12:07

the TPUs, having everything already

12:10

baked to this point. It is ready to go.

12:12

But then you don't have the physical

12:14

infrastructure to be able to back up the

12:16

unprecedented demand. That must be

12:18

incredibly frustrating. It is giving

12:21

away a massive advantage that you've

12:23

built for decades. Senator Pachai does

12:25

not want to do that. He believes it's

12:27

critical not to do that. So they are

12:30

building and they're building fast.

12:32

Google is wanting to build faster than

12:33

Meta. They're wanting to build as fast

12:35

as Amazon in this AI demand. And to do

12:39

this, they need to raise a lot of cash.

12:41

And that brings us to the next big

12:42

question. A lot of people are looking at

12:44

this saying, "Well, if Google makes so

12:46

much money, $170 billion in operating

12:48

income, over $130 billion in net income,

12:52

why can't they just afford to do this

12:53

themselves?" And there's a couple

12:55

reasons why. First of all, they outline

12:57

this in this segment here called

12:58

investing in a balanced way. AI is

13:01

driving an expansionary moment for

13:03

Alphabet. The company is experiencing

13:05

strong demand for its AI solutions and

13:07

services from enterprises and consumers

13:09

at levels that are exceeding the

13:11

company's available supply. By scaling

13:13

its investment, the company seeks to

13:15

expand its foundational infrastructure

13:17

infrastructure to support the

13:19

significant growth opportunity ahead.

13:21

During its Q1206 earnings call, Alphabet

13:25

announced that its 2026 capital

13:27

expenditures are expected to exceed 180

13:31

to 190 billion and that it expects in

13:34

2027 capital expenditures to

13:36

significantly increase from 2026.

13:40

Now, let's just look at these numbers

13:42

here. Yes, Google makes like $170

13:44

billion in operating income. It's a lot

13:47

of money, but the number that they said

13:49

they're going to spend this year is 180

13:52

to 190 billion. That's more than what

13:55

Google makes. They're spending that in

13:57

2026 alone. Then they mention in 2027

14:00

they expect this number to go up

14:02

significantly. They literally say

14:05

significantly. We don't know what that

14:07

is, but it's going to be a lot higher.

14:09

These numbers, by the way, in and of

14:11

themselves are already way higher than

14:13

analysts expected. Analysts were

14:15

expecting numbers that were in the range

14:17

of 130 billion and they're already at

14:20

180 to 190. And they're saying that this

14:23

number is going to go way higher in

14:24

2027. Google makes a lot of money, $170

14:28

billion, but they don't make 200 billion

14:30

per year. They don't make $250 billion.

14:33

So Google quite literally cannot afford

14:36

upfront to pay for all of these

14:38

investments. They have to get money in

14:40

other places. And when a big company

14:42

like Google's raising money, there's two

14:44

ways to raise it. You have the debt

14:45

markets and you have the equity markets.

14:47

And we can look at what Google has done.

14:49

Google has already tapped the debt

14:52

markets. They've already tapped it dry.

14:54

In terms of debt issuance over the last

14:56

year, Alphabet has raised $85 billion of

15:00

debt across six major currencies and

15:02

markets, bringing its total debt balance

15:04

to over hundred billion. So the people

15:07

saying, why doesn't Google just raise

15:09

more debt? Why are they diluting

15:10

shareholders? They already have. They've

15:13

raised $85 billion of debt in just the

15:15

past 12 months. If they went ahead and

15:17

raised another $80 billion, they would

15:20

have $180 billion of debt, which is a

15:22

lot of debt, even for a company the size

15:24

of Google. That's a lot of debt. And

15:27

unfortunately, when you do that, it

15:29

makes your balance sheet, your debt

15:31

rating go down. They don't want to raise

15:32

that much debt. They don't want to pay

15:34

that much interest. Furthermore, there's

15:36

a lot of analysts looking at this and

15:38

banking analysts saying that the debt

15:40

markets in general are somewhat tapped.

15:42

Like it's a lot harder to get debt right

15:44

now than it was previously cuz lenders

15:47

are being a lot more strict with their

15:48

terms. So Google got debt already. They

15:51

got $80 billion of it. While the debt

15:53

markets were good, now that the debt

15:54

markets are sour, they're turning to the

15:56

equity markets. And this is another

15:58

thing that Google's doing in an

16:00

incredibly intelligent way. They're

16:02

getting ahead of the equity markets. And

16:04

by that I mean that Google is now

16:06

raising $80 billion of equity with

16:09

Delilution right before SpaceX goes for

16:12

their IPO. And wouldn't you know SpaceX

16:15

IPO, the 5% that they're wanting to

16:17

raise from the public is around $75

16:20

billion. So Google's saying, "Hey

16:23

SpaceX, before you get to market and get

16:25

all that juicy money from all the public

16:27

investors, we're going to get there

16:28

first. We're going to dry up that

16:30

liquidity before you have access to it.

16:32

We're also going to get there before the

16:34

anthropic IPO and before the OpenAI IPO.

16:38

Google's going to be first to the equity

16:40

markets, not last. This means that

16:41

Google has the advantage. They're

16:43

beating all these massive companies

16:45

looking for public money before they get

16:47

there. And Google will likely be able to

16:49

raise this money easily again because

16:51

investors aren't already putting money

16:53

into SpaceX, into OpenAI, and into

16:55

Anthropic. What Google's actually doing

16:57

here is more of a preemptive strike.

16:59

They are going for the equity markets

17:01

before they have been tapped by all

17:03

these other major AI companies like the

17:05

SpaceX, like the OpenAI, like the

17:07

Anthropic. We know that these companies

17:08

are going to be doing staggering level

17:10

of IPOs, raising hundreds of billions of

17:13

dollars in aggregate. There is a finite

17:15

amount of capital available to invest in

17:17

AI companies. Google knows this. They

17:20

know that if they wait too long, they'll

17:22

be the last in line trying to raise

17:24

capital from a market that doesn't have

17:26

a lot more capital to give. They will be

17:28

sucking all the oxygen out of the room

17:30

for these other IPOs. Not only helping

17:33

Google, but damaging their competition

17:34

and their ability to fund these

17:36

competitive threats in the process. See,

17:39

what Google's doing is not only

17:40

advantaging themselves, but they're

17:42

disadvantaging these other companies

17:44

hoping to raise capital as well. They're

17:46

making it more difficult by sucking away

17:48

all the available capital before they

17:50

even have a chance. This is a double

17:52

whammy. It is a preemptive strategic

17:55

strike at their competitors. Google is

17:57

saying that we are going to invest

17:58

endlessly in AI. We are going to make it

18:01

so that open AI and anthropic struggle

18:03

to gain any level of profitability and

18:05

pricing power. We're going to build out

18:07

a massive moat because Google has

18:09

something that these other companies do

18:10

not have. See, Google is not just a

18:13

commodity reseller of AI. They're not a

18:15

company that just spun up some servers

18:16

and created a server farm and is

18:18

reselling AI. Google is a vertically

18:21

integrated enterprise of AI features

18:23

from the security to the distribution to

18:26

the TPUs to every part of this. They

18:28

have the entire layer as well as Google

18:30

has many ways to benefit from this

18:32

personally. So Google can soak up all

18:35

this capital build out this massive moat

18:38

with artificial intelligence

18:40

distribution. They can infuse it in all

18:42

the features throughout all of their

18:43

business at the same time making it so

18:45

that they have a highly differentiated

18:47

product. At the same time, they are

18:49

sucking up both institutional and retail

18:52

money in the process. This is both a

18:54

defensive and offensive move by Sunundar

18:56

Pachai. When you really think about what

18:58

they're doing here, it is strategically

19:01

brilliant. It's something that you would

19:03

have to plan for, but Google seems to

19:05

have already done this and they're

19:06

executing it well. Google already knows

19:08

that they have a massive lead in this

19:11

category. They know that all they have

19:13

to do to protect their lead and protect

19:15

their moat is keep momentum going. Keep

19:17

the ball rolling. Keep this snowball

19:19

getting bigger and bigger and definitely

19:21

don't let it crumble to pieces because

19:23

you don't have capacity. That'd be a

19:25

very stupid reason to give up the lead.

19:28

And Google knows this. They say that

19:29

their AI momentum is picking up pace.

19:32

Alphabet's planned investment will

19:33

support its business momentum, including

19:36

Alphabet's revenue growing 22%

19:38

year-over-year to $ 110 billion in Q1.

19:42

That's over 110 billion in a single

19:45

3-month period. Google search and other

19:47

revenue grew by 19%. Cloud revenue grew

19:50

63% year-over-year in Q1 with backlogs

19:53

nearly doubling quarter over-arter to

19:55

more than 460 billion with approximately

19:58

50% expected to be recognized as revenue

20:01

over the next 24 months. Google's

20:03

subscriptions Google reached 350 million

20:06

paid subscriptions with Q1 2026

20:09

representing the company's strongest

20:10

quarter ever for consumer AI plans.

20:13

Google now has over 8.5 million

20:15

developers building new experiences with

20:17

its models monthly and its first-party

20:19

model API are processing 19 billion

20:21

tokens per minute. A six time increase

20:24

year-over-year. The metrics are

20:26

staggering. And these aren't the only

20:28

ones. When you actually look at what's

20:30

going on with Google, like when you

20:31

literally just visually look at it, it

20:34

literally looks fake how much demand

20:35

they have. Their demand is outscaling

20:38

their revenue growth. it's outscaling

20:40

what they're able to provide at an

20:42

unprecedented pace. And that's why they

20:45

need more cash today. I think it's good

20:47

to just take a minute and simply think

20:49

about what's going on. Instead of

20:51

looking at the headlines and becoming

20:53

concerned that they're selling shares

20:54

and it's a lot of money, I really want

20:56

to just take a step back and consider

20:58

for a minute simply what's going on.

21:01

Google believes that there is an

21:03

investment they can make that is so

21:05

good, it's so good that they need to

21:08

literally dilute shares of their own

21:10

company to raise equity to make this

21:12

investment. That's how good it is. And

21:15

that's an investment that's so good that

21:16

they've already raised $80 billion by

21:19

going to the debt markets. And that's an

21:21

investment that's so good that they've

21:23

already spent all of their operating

21:25

cash flow and their net income. All

21:27

their discretionary money is being spent

21:29

on this investment. That's what Google's

21:31

doing here. So, in terms of whether or

21:34

not they believe this investment is

21:36

worthwhile, that shows you where they

21:37

stand. They're willing to do whatever it

21:40

takes to make this investment and make

21:41

sure they continue to lead in AI. And I

21:44

have full reason to believe them. Like

21:46

we highlighted, every metric for Google

21:48

is already showing that this is paying

21:50

off. Buffett once talked about the ideal

21:52

business. He described what he believed

21:54

was the perfect business. And this is

21:57

what he described. This is a

21:58

hypothetical of Buffett's ideal

22:00

business.

22:01

>> Sure, it's a good question. The the

22:03

ideal business

22:06

is one that earns very high returns on

22:08

capital and can keep using lots of

22:10

capital at those high returns. I mean,

22:12

that becomes a compounding machine.

22:14

>> So, those are both important

22:15

ingredients. It's not enough just to

22:17

have high returns, but you have to have

22:19

high returns with a lot of capital

22:21

invested. And that's where you get the

22:22

compounding machine. So if you have your

22:24

choice, if you could put a $100 million

22:27

into a business that earns 20% on that

22:30

capital, say 20 million, ideally it

22:34

would be able to earn 20% on 120 million

22:37

the following year and 144 million the

22:39

following year and so on that you could

22:42

keep redeploying capital at these same

22:44

returns over time. But there are very

22:47

very very few businesses like that. the

22:49

really unfortunately the good businesses

22:52

you know take a Coca-Cola or seas candy

22:55

they don't require much capital and

22:57

incremental capital doesn't produce

22:59

anything like the returns that this

23:00

fundamental return that's produced by

23:03

some great intangible Google

23:05

historically was one of these companies

23:07

that earned so much more money than they

23:09

could adequately reinvest. So what did

23:11

Google do during that time period? Well,

23:13

they just bought back shares. They just

23:15

returned it back to the shareholder.

23:16

They said, "Hey, look, we have these

23:18

profitable businesses. We generate way

23:20

more cash than we need to adequately

23:21

reinvest back in our business. So, we're

23:23

going to just return all this extra back

23:25

to you, the shareholder." And they did

23:27

that for a long period of time. Google

23:29

was a cash flow generative, highly

23:31

profitable, cash returning business for

23:33

years and years and years. But then

23:36

something happened which made the

23:37

equation flip. Google has a unique

23:40

opportunity to invest enormous amounts

23:42

of capital today at what they believe

23:45

with high conviction will be very

23:47

attractive returns for their

23:48

shareholders. Now again, Google's not

23:51

just racing out looking for investments.

23:53

They're not just racing out throwing

23:54

money left and right willy-nilly hoping

23:57

that it turns out well. This is

23:59

something that just happened. It was

24:01

fate. It was fortune. It was a lot of

24:03

preparation and building out the TPUs

24:05

and building out the AI models. But

24:07

having this massive influx of AI demand

24:10

was also just a part of fate and Google

24:12

is wellprepared to take advantage of it.

24:15

They're now saying once we finally found

24:18

something that's in our wheelhouse that

24:20

we know very well that we don't have to

24:22

look outside of our business to earn

24:23

high returns. We're not just doing

24:25

acquisitions. We're not buying some

24:27

random company with very low prospects.

24:30

This is something that happened that's a

24:32

one-time thing. The AI influx is a

24:34

dynamic change in the market. We have a

24:37

huge advantage here and a huge

24:38

opportunity to invest increasing amounts

24:40

of capital and get very attractive

24:42

returns. This is the ideal business that

24:45

Bergkshire is looking at. And funny

24:47

enough, even though Warren Buffett said

24:49

that years ago, now they're investing

24:52

$10 billion in this ideal business.

24:54

Bergkshire obviously believes that the

24:56

money that they're investing today will

24:58

have attractive returns. And I believe

25:00

that Google's intuition here and the

25:02

management conviction is correct. They

25:05

are likely to have incredibly high

25:06

barriers to entry for their AI

25:08

solutions. Although companies can spin

25:10

up server racks, there's very few that

25:12

have the entire stack like Google. They

25:14

have the TPUs, that have the security,

25:16

that have the distribution. Google's

25:17

also a very uniquely positioned company

25:20

to have the billions of users in

25:22

distribution natively to integrate all

25:24

of this computational power within their

25:26

services. They're already giving you

25:28

previews of what they can do already

25:30

just with their basic applications like

25:31

how AI's integrated into YouTube. It's

25:34

integrated into your documents, into

25:35

Drive, into PDF viewing, all of this

25:37

type of stuff. But there's far more that

25:39

they can go. There's far more runway. So

25:42

Google is in a position to have a

25:44

massive capital barrier mode. They're in

25:47

a position to get all this capital

25:49

before their competitors with XAI,

25:51

before their competitors with Anthropic

25:53

or with OpenAI have access to this

25:55

capital. They're in a position to build

25:57

out an incredibly powerful full stack AI

26:00

solution. Google is a very uniquely

26:03

positioned company to benefit from this.

26:05

So, as far as I'm concerned, I'm staying

26:07

in Google. Now, moving on, let's get to

26:09

some news. Here we have Tom Lee recently

26:10

going on to CNBC and explaining why he

26:12

believes that the next three years will

26:15

be the best years for investors in the

26:17

stock market. Let's go ahead and listen

26:18

to his reasoning.

26:20

>> Well, I think a couple things are coming

26:23

together, Joe, um that are going to

26:25

really support a few things that may

26:28

only happen like once in our lifetime.

26:30

One is I think this the US economic

26:33

growth rate is actually starting to step

26:34

up. Um you know in other words we could

26:37

grow at 4%. And for a you know a mature

26:41

largest economy in the world to start to

26:42

accelerate growth that that's pretty um

26:45

astounding. Um the second is the US is

26:48

one of the biggest exporters of the most

26:50

important tool in the next 10-15 years

26:53

which is AI products and that means we

26:56

are a net essentially exporter of a

26:59

highv value product and there's so much

27:02

capital I think misallocated today

27:04

because so much of it is held in private

27:06

alternatives but it's going to move into

27:08

the public market. So I do think that

27:11

plus the demographic tailwind of

27:12

millennials and Gen Z uh adding to the

27:15

workforce but then also beginning to

27:17

inherit generational wealth. I think

27:20

that is going to set up for after 2026

27:23

perhaps you know like you know over the

27:26

next 2 years some of the biggest gains

27:28

of the stock market in our lifetime.

27:30

>> So Tom Lee points out a couple important

27:32

things here. One of which I completely

27:33

agree with which is the United States

27:35

has become a massive exporter of AI

27:39

which if you look at historically why

27:41

the US has done so well if you just look

27:43

at the US economy and the stock market

27:45

and why it's really thrived a lot of it

27:47

has been software the United States has

27:49

been a massive exporter of software

27:51

services which are high margin very

27:53

profitable consistently build services

27:56

now we have the SAS apocalypse software

27:59

stocks are going down software is the

28:01

old news. But then we have the new

28:03

thing. The new shiny thing, of course,

28:04

is AI. In this case, AI is a very real

28:07

product offering enormous amounts of

28:09

value. It's so powerful that it's

28:11

literally disrupting many software

28:13

companies. And which country is

28:14

investing by far the most into

28:16

artificial intelligence? Well, the

28:18

United States is. It's not even close.

28:19

And then the last thing that he points

28:21

out, which I again agree with, is there

28:22

is going to be a lot of generational

28:24

wealth, a lot of pass down wealth that

28:26

should spur economic growth. I believe

28:28

that younger demographics spend money in

28:31

different ways. They spend on different

28:32

services than older demographics. So,

28:34

you're going to see a lot of boom. And I

28:36

believe a lot of stock market companies

28:38

do well as a result of that. So, even

28:40

though this seems a little bit

28:42

far-fetched to have the best years of

28:43

our life ahead, it also doesn't seem

28:46

impossible. With what's going on with AI

28:48

today, the massive influx investment in

28:50

capital, I believe that there is a

28:53

chance we'll have incredibly good gains

28:54

in the stock market over the next three

28:56

years. and I think it's a great time to

28:58

stay invested. Now, next we get to news

28:59

of what's going on in Hollywood. This is

29:02

something that I I think a lot of people

29:03

are overlooking. This is a dynamic

29:06

change happening to movie making and it

29:08

specifically has to do with YouTube.

29:10

YouTubers seem to be taking over the box

29:12

office, especially over the past week.

29:14

AMC had its best month ever, the most

29:17

traffic ever had in history. Cinemark

29:19

also did exceptionally well. These movie

29:21

theaters are pulling in the mass amounts

29:23

of people to see movies. But it's not

29:25

for the new Mandalorian movie. It's for

29:27

movies that YouTubers are making.

29:29

Backroom is a horror film. $10 million

29:31

is what they spent to produce this film.

29:33

Open to an extraordinary 81 million.

29:36

Smashing records for distributor A24.

29:39

And Obsession, a horror film made on a

29:41

budget of 750,000,

29:43

gross 26.4 million in its third week

29:46

after release, a 10% jump from the

29:49

previous weekend, and crossed $100

29:51

million domestically. So again, this

29:54

movie Obsession, it cost $750,000

29:58

to make and they're now grossing well

30:00

over $und00 million. Now, I saw

30:03

Obsession the first weekend that it came

30:04

out. I was looking at movies to watch.

30:07

I'm not a huge horror fan, but I'll I'll

30:09

watch them if they look interesting

30:10

enough. And this one had an intriguing

30:12

premise. I saw a couple of the

30:13

commercials and I'm like looking at this

30:15

Wish Gone Bad. And then I looked at the

30:17

ratings on it. And notice right here,

30:20

this is Rotten Tomatoes. Now, I get it.

30:22

The critics can be wrong sometimes. The

30:24

users can be wrong sometimes as well.

30:26

But when you have a 96% critic and a 94%

30:29

user, that's a pretty good consensus

30:31

that this is likely a a very well done

30:34

movie. And it was. Obsession was one of

30:37

the best horror movies I've seen in a

30:38

long time. It was original. And even

30:41

though it was created for $750,000,

30:44

there's no way that I thought this movie

30:46

would be made for that cheap. It looked

30:48

good. It looked very good. In fact, I

30:51

would say that this movie looked better

30:53

aesthetically than many movies shot for

30:55

like a hundred million dollars. I don't

30:57

know how they did it. The lighting, the

30:59

ambiance, the acting, just everything

31:01

looked really upclass for a movie made

31:03

for less than a million dollars. Now,

31:05

the incredible part of this is that this

31:07

movie that again costs less than a

31:09

million dollars to film, is actually

31:11

doing better than The Mandalorian and

31:13

Grou, a Star Wars spin-off with a $165

31:17

million price tag. That one came in

31:19

third after the two YouTubers films. It

31:23

tumbled 70% in its second week and its

31:25

opening weekend it was the lowest ever

31:27

for a Star Wars film under Disney. So

31:30

look what's going on right now. The

31:31

company that has Star Wars, one of the

31:34

biggest pieces of IP ever. Like it seems

31:36

like bulletproof IP just came out with

31:39

their new movie, which is a new one in a

31:41

long time, The Mandalorian and Grou.

31:43

They spent hundreds of millions of

31:45

dollars to make it and they're being

31:47

outplayed and outmatched. They're being

31:48

beat in the box office by two YouTubers

31:51

movies that are both created for less

31:53

than $10 million. One of them created

31:55

for less than 1 million. That is an

31:57

insane underdog story. So I believe this

31:59

is the time that Hollywood will wake up.

32:01

They will use this as a shocking way of

32:03

now turning to YouTubers original

32:05

stories, lowerbudget films that feel

32:08

very good because they're led by

32:09

storytelling, acting, and character

32:12

development. They're not led by CGI and

32:14

AI explosions. These movies were

32:17

entertaining because of the story they

32:18

told, because of the pacing, because of

32:20

how they were directed. So, I believe

32:22

we're going to see a lot more of this.

32:24

Hollywood is going to be turning to

32:25

YouTubers to make more of these movies,

32:27

and I'm all for it. Now, moving on, we

32:29

get to the fail of the week. In this

32:30

case, it is Andrew Left of Citron

32:33

Research. He has been found guilty from

32:35

scheming for scheming to manipulate the

32:37

stock market via media campaigns. Andrew

32:40

Left used his TV appearances to disguise

32:42

his intentions, manipulate the stock

32:44

market, and pat his pockets, said First

32:47

Assistant United States Attorney. So,

32:48

the government goes after Andrew Left.

32:50

They catch him and they say that you've

32:51

been really bad at manipulating the

32:53

stock market. That's illegal. So, we're

32:55

going to throw you in jail. And at first

32:57

glance, you may just look at this and

32:58

think, "What did he do that was so bad?

33:00

Did he just pump his stocks? Was he just

33:02

bearish on different companies and

33:04

that's why they're throwing him in

33:05

jail?" That's not really what's going

33:07

on. What Andrew actually did was much

33:09

worse. One of these examples is very

33:11

damning. In 2018, Andrew Left wrote a

33:14

portfolio manager about Nvidia Corp. He

33:16

said, quote, "Do you want to make some

33:18

fast money? Put together a thesis of why

33:21

Nvidia is oversold. We can destroy it.

33:23

Just read the analyst note from this

33:25

past quarter and assemble your best

33:27

ideas." Later that morning, Left took

33:29

financial positions in Nvidia, including

33:31

a short-dated call options that expired

33:33

3 days later. left them promoted Nvidia

33:36

as a favorable investment to Citron's

33:38

Twitter account, stating, "Cit buys

33:40

Nvidia. This is the first time in two

33:42

years the stock has an appealing

33:44

riskreward to investors. We see 165

33:47

before we see 120." Despite his

33:49

representation that he expected Nvidia

33:51

share price to rise to 165, less than 2

33:54

hours after announcing Citron buys

33:57

Nvidia, left sold all his pre-weeted

34:00

positions. Nvidia was trading within a

34:02

range of 150 to 151 and he sold for a

34:05

profit of $960,000.

34:08

So Andrew left says Citron's buying

34:10

Nvidia and I have a price target that's

34:12

like $20 higher and I'm very bullish on

34:15

it. It's not going to go down. And then

34:16

within 2 hours of that announcement, he

34:18

cashes in on short-term options for a

34:21

million dollar gain and it's completely

34:23

out of the position. That is textbook

34:26

market manipulation. He had no intention

34:28

of keeping Nvidia and riding it up to

34:29

his price target. He was just trying to

34:31

bump the stock up so he could

34:32

immediately exit and sell into the

34:35

liquidity that the market was providing.

34:37

And Andrew Left repeatedly did stuff

34:39

like this. He would take short positions

34:41

and he would say that the stock is going

34:43

to go down, but then immediately after

34:45

releasing that news that he believes the

34:47

stock was going to go down, he would

34:48

immediately close those positions for a

34:49

quick gain. And he wouldn't tell people

34:51

that he had exited those positions. This

34:53

is exactly the type of behavior that is

34:55

short-term manipulation. Andrew Left was

34:57

fine making money from his followers at

35:00

their expense. He was fine trading

35:02

against them, having them buy into the

35:03

liquidity of a position he was selling.

35:05

So, he'd make money for himself at the

35:07

expense of his followers. So, this is an

35:09

unfortunate case for Andrew Left. It

35:11

shows that even when you can make a lot

35:12

of money in the short term, the $20

35:14

million or so that Andrew Left has made

35:16

is just not worth it. Manipulating the

35:18

stock market, trading against your

35:20

followers is just not worth it. It's a

35:22

bad game to play. It's completely

35:24

dishonest. And even though the

35:26

government isn't perfect at applying

35:28

these rules equally, they are going

35:30

after these people doing this. And I

35:31

think that overall that's a good thing.

35:33

That's it for this episode. See you in

35:34

the next one.

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