Full Transcript

·YouTLDR

Google Is Fooling Everyone

35:376,767 words · ~34 min readEnglishTranscribed Jun 4, 2026
AI Summary

Google's unprecedented $80 billion equity raise is a brilliant strategic preemptive strike to secure critical AI compute capacity and suck dry market liquidity before competitors like OpenAI and SpaceX can launch their own massive IPOs. This structural capital barrier ensures Google's long-term dominance in the vertically integrated AI value chain despite immediate market skepticism.

It explains the structural and macroeconomic dynamics of the AI hardware war, detailing why capital-expenditure scaling and market liquidity preemptions dictate which hyperscalers win the enterprise computing monopoly.

Section summaries

0:00-1:36

Introduction & Episode Roadmap

optional

Provides a high-level overview of the topics discussed, but does not contain the deep structural analysis.

1:37-2:39

Sponsor Segment: Qualrum.com

skip

Self-promotion of the host's proprietary stock analysis software.

2:41-26:07

Google's Strategic Preemptive Equity Raise Analysis

watch

The core thesis of the video. Highly detailed breakdown of AI CapEx scaling, liquidity dynamics, and vertical integration vs. competitors.

26:07-28:58

Tom Lee Market Outlook Analysis

optional

Discusses macroeconomic indicators like GDP growth, millennials inheriting wealth, and AI exports, which is interesting but tangential to the core Google thesis.

28:59-32:27

Creator Economy & Hollywood Disruption

watch

Excellent case study on micro-budget versus legacy CapEx business models in the media landscape.

32:27-35:34

Fail of the Week: Andrew Left Market Manipulation Case

watch

A critical look at the mechanics of market manipulation and the realities of regulatory enforcement on retail-facing short sellers.

Key points

  • Unprecedented Capital Demand Defeating Organic Cash Flow — Even with $170 billion in trailing 12-month operating cash flow, Google cannot organically fund its scaling requirements. CapEx is projected to exceed $180-190 billion in 2026 and rise significantly in 2027, forcing Google to tap both debt and equity markets to build physical compute capacity.
  • Preemptive Liquidity Strike on Frontier Competitors — By executing an $80 billion equity raise now, Google is intentionally sucking dry the finite pool of public institutional and retail capital allocated for AI prior to impending IPOs/raises from SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic.
  • The Infinite Reinvestment Compounding Loop — AI represents a paradigm shift where Google has transitioned from a mature business returning excess cash to shareholders via buybacks to Buffett's 'ideal business'—one capable of reinvesting massive amounts of incremental capital at highly attractive rates of return.
  • The Decoupling of Creative Budgets in Hollywood — Low-budget horror movies produced by YouTubers (e.g., 'The Backrooms' and 'Obsession') are drastically outperforming $165+ million legacy studio IP like Disney's 'The Mandalorian & Grogu' at the box office.
  • Citron Research and the Mechanistic Reality of Market Manipulation — The criminal conviction of short-seller Andrew Left exposes how influential media personalities exploit retail liquidity by taking short-term derivative positions and immediately trading in the opposite direction of their public pronouncements.
Alphabet announces a proposed $80 billion equity capital raise to expand AI infrastructure and compute. Joseph Carlson (quoting Alphabet)
The top question is definitely around capacity. Sundar Pichai

AI-generated from the transcript. May contain errors.

0:00

Today on the Joseph Carlson show, this

0:01

is not something you see every day.

0:03

Google is seeking $80 billion for an AI

0:07

buildout. They're actually raising

0:08

capital through selling shares delution.

0:11

This is incredible. This is one of the

0:13

biggest equity raises I've ever seen

0:15

from a publicly traded company. In fact,

0:16

it may be the biggest ever. And we're

0:18

going to be going over all of it. A lot

0:20

of people have this news wrong. There

0:22

are tons of tweets that are giving

0:24

analysis and takes on it and hot takes

0:27

on what Google's doing. Many people say

0:29

that this is a time to be bearish, that

0:31

what we should be doing is being scared

0:32

of what Google's doing now. And I don't

0:34

believe that's the case. In fact, this

0:36

is one of the most strategic moves that

0:38

Google has ever done. And we'll be going

0:40

into all of it this episode. Now, of

0:42

course, we have a lot of other news to

0:43

get into. For example, Tom Lee recently

0:45

went on to CNBC and he upped the ante.

0:47

He said that the stock market may go on

0:49

to the biggest run that we've ever seen

0:51

over the next couple of years. We also

0:53

have news that two YouTubers are turning

0:55

the box office upside down. We have two

0:58

YouTubers that just made the movie The

1:00

Back Rooms and Obsession, and both of

1:02

them are massive hits at the box office.

1:04

In fact, there's now Variety and

1:06

different magazines saying that

1:07

YouTubers are taking over Hollywood.

1:10

What does this mean? We'll be looking at

1:11

this as well. And then finally, we get

1:13

to the fail of the week, which in this

1:14

case is Andrew Left, the infamous

1:17

shortseller. He's taken contrarian

1:19

positions on many companies. He was

1:21

found guilty of scheming to manipulate

1:23

stock market via media campaigns. This

1:25

short seller, Andrew left, will very

1:27

likely face jail time and a lot of it up

1:29

to 25 years based on this conviction.

1:32

But what did he do? Was it so bad? We'll

1:34

be going over the whole case in this

1:36

fail of the week. Now, just a quick

1:37

mention. If you haven't tried out

1:38

qualum.com, give it a try. We're always

1:41

adding new things. Qualrum, of course,

1:43

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1:45

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1:47

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1:52

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2:01

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2:04

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2:10

research on different companies. This is

2:12

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is an hour-ong deep dive on this company

2:20

as well as other ones like my top stock

2:23

picks. This goes over 10 different ones

2:24

that we do analysis on. Uh we have a

2:26

recent video here about saving. A lot of

2:28

people thought this one was so good that

2:30

I should make it a public episode. So,

2:31

I've been considering that. There's

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the single membership. So, you can try

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it out now risk-f free at qual.com. Now,

2:41

to kick things off, we have to jump into

2:43

what I believe is some of the biggest

2:44

news that we've seen all year. This is

2:47

massive and it's actually unprecedented.

2:49

We have a company the size of Google,

2:52

the balance sheet of Google, the

2:54

financial strength of Google that

2:56

doesn't have enough money. And in fact,

2:58

they don't have enough money to the

2:59

extent that they're going to the equity

3:02

markets. They're going to delution to be

3:03

able to raise money. The Wall Street

3:05

Journal says that Google's seeking $80

3:07

billion for an AI buildout. From the

3:09

Google press release themselves, this is

3:11

from Google themselves. They say

3:13

Alphabet announces a proposed $80

3:16

billion equity capital raise to expand

3:19

AI infrastructure and compute. Now to

3:22

put this in simple terms, this means

3:24

that Google is willing to dilute the

3:26

shareholder to issue more shares worth

3:29

$80 billion so that they can transfer

3:31

those shares into cash and to be able to

3:32

use that $80 billion for compute and

3:35

infrastructure and whatever they want.

3:37

They have to dilute the shareholder to

3:39

be able to get this cash. And

3:41

immediately this raises a lot of

3:42

questions. For example, Google is one of

3:45

the most profitable and largest

3:47

companies in the world. Typically when

3:49

we see companies that are diluting

3:51

shareholders, you think of a much

3:53

smaller, less profitable company, one

3:55

that hasn't reached its operating

3:56

leverage and its scale and its profits.

3:58

Those are typically the ones that are

4:00

diluting shareholders. But Google is

4:02

neither small nor unprofitable. Google

4:05

is massive and highly profitable. In

4:07

fact, Google is one of the most

4:08

profitable companies on planet Earth. To

4:11

illustrate this, we can take a look at

4:12

Google's net income. This really shows

4:15

off how much money this company produces

4:17

every single quarter and every single

4:19

year. If we look at the net income on a

4:21

trailing 12-month basis, this is what it

4:22

looks like. It's up to 160 billion. Now,

4:26

part of this is because of a one-time

4:29

investment recognition. If we even

4:31

normalize from that, Google still makes

4:33

on a normalized basis over 130 billion

4:37

per year.

4:39

130 billion every year in net income.

4:42

Google's operating cash flow was 174

4:46

billion in the trailing 12 months. That

4:48

puts them as one of, if not the most

4:51

profitable company in the world. They'll

4:52

probably be beat by only Nvidia this

4:54

year. So Google is massively, massively

4:58

profitable. Like this is a company that

5:00

makes the money that nations do. It it

5:02

is an insane level of profitability yet

5:05

they don't have enough money and that

5:07

again is a headscratcher. Why does

5:09

Google need to raise money? Now the

5:11

reactions to this were equally perplexed

5:13

and in many cases a lot of people were

5:15

concerned about Google. We have people

5:17

like this Gary Marcus on X saying why

5:19

things will eventually fall apart.

5:21

Everybody, even Google, seems to be

5:22

treating AI as if it were some kind of

5:24

winner take all competition like web

5:27

search was in which Google can take over

5:29

95%. But everybody is building

5:31

essentially the same technological

5:33

solutions and essentially the same data.

5:35

So there is no mode. He continues on

5:37

showing how Google is overspending and

5:40

they're not going to have good returns.

5:42

We have other people on Twitter sharing

5:45

these tweets of of skepticism and shock.

5:47

We have liquidity here saying that

5:48

Google is raising $80 billion in equity

5:51

a week before SpaceX is trying to raise

5:53

75 billion a few months before Anthropic

5:56

and OpenAI are trying to raise 100

5:57

billion from investors. And you're

5:59

laughing. This is a cataclysmic exit

6:02

liquidity avalanche. And then he has the

6:05

meme of the big short of him Michael

6:07

Bomb in this saying that it's a bubble.

6:10

Jerry Capital saying Google equity raise

6:12

summarized and it's a a meme of the

6:14

joker burning cash. And there's more and

6:16

more of that. Twitter and X are full of

6:19

people that are completely shocked at

6:21

this. People that are saying that this

6:23

is the end of Google. It's the beginning

6:24

of the end. It's a bubble and everything

6:26

is going to come crumbling down. But as

6:28

I've done many times in the past, and it

6:30

will come as no surprise to you, I am

6:32

once again going to defend Google. No, I

6:35

do not believe that Google is lighting

6:37

money on fire. No, I do not believe that

6:40

this is the beginning of some big bubble

6:41

that's going to burst. And no, I do not

6:44

believe that Google's spending hundreds

6:46

of billions of dollars to build an

6:47

undiversified nomote business. All of

6:50

that is wrong. What's going on here

6:53

actually makes Google a much better

6:55

investment. And I'll be going over why.

6:57

Now, first of all, to look at my

6:59

position with Google, I think is

7:00

important. I have here in the passive

7:02

income portfolio, which I made it so you

7:05

can just see all the holdings here. So,

7:06

this is the passive income portfolio,

7:08

and I have a position in Google here.

7:11

It's a $130,000 position with 65,000 of

7:14

that being in the green. So, this one's

7:17

up over 136%. So, Google in just that

7:20

one portfolio is already a fairly large

7:22

position, but that's not the only place

7:24

that I hold it. I also have the story

7:26

fund and I have another large position

7:27

in Google here. $85,000 worth and 57,000

7:32

of that is gains. This one's up 382%.

7:35

So, when I look at this combined,

7:37

Google's around a 16% position. It is

7:39

fairly large. It's around a4 million

7:41

dollar position with over half of it

7:43

being gains. And I've held this company

7:45

for years and I've consistently defended

7:47

Google over and over again. And I

7:49

believe this is another case worthy of

7:51

defending Google for a few different

7:52

reasons. First of all, we can actually

7:54

look at what Google's doing here. They

7:56

are raising $80 billion in equity

7:58

capital to expand AI infrastructure. So,

8:01

they're basically diluting shareholders

8:02

to make it so that they have more cash

8:04

to invest in AI. And right off the bat,

8:07

that tells me a couple things. One of

8:09

them is that Google's belief in AI is

8:13

absolute. It is without question. They

8:16

don't just simply have a suspicion. They

8:19

don't simply have some speculation that

8:21

AI is a real thing. No, they believe it

8:23

100%. They're 100% convinced. So, if you

8:27

have any type of speculation or any type

8:29

of question that AI is going to have

8:31

attractive returns and it's going to

8:32

have demand, Google's already a bit

8:34

ahead of you. It's no longer a question

8:36

in their mind. They have a million data

8:38

points at their business, maybe a

8:39

billion data points. Of course, they

8:41

have search, they have Gemini, and then

8:42

they have their massive cloud business

8:44

that they have tons of enterprise

8:46

clients. And every single data point

8:48

they have, their entire business is

8:51

telling them they need more capacity.

8:53

They need more compute. They cannot

8:55

fulfill on all of the projects they're

8:57

trying to do across their vast empire

9:00

without the capacity. So, to them, this

9:03

is not a speculative bet. It's not

9:05

something that they're rolling the dice

9:07

on. Sundar Pachai did not wake up and

9:09

say, "You know what? It seems kind of

9:11

risky, but I think I'm just going to

9:12

roll the dice, invest $80 billion into

9:15

AI, and hope things turn out well."

9:17

That's not what's going on here. They

9:19

already know. They already have the

9:21

answer. What they're signaling to

9:23

investors here is that Google is

9:25

absolutely certain of AI demand without

9:28

any question. There is no way Google

9:30

would be putting this much capital at

9:32

this scale and this size without that

9:35

absolute certainty. And this isn't

9:36

something that was decided overnight

9:38

either. Google has for a long time

9:40

period their management has said and

9:42

signaled over and over again that right

9:44

now their biggest concern by far is the

9:47

unprecedented demand for compute

9:49

capacity. And the biggest concern for

9:52

Sundar Pachchai is not being able to

9:54

fulfill that compute capacity. He's

9:56

repeatedly mentioned this. In fact,

9:57

Sunder Pachai said just in February of

9:59

this year, quote, "What keeps us up at

10:01

night, we've been at this AI first

10:04

trajectory for over a decade." Pchai

10:06

said, pointing to years of investment in

10:09

custom chips like tensor processing

10:10

units, the TPUs. He went on to mention

10:13

that this current momentum in this

10:16

demand presents a unique challenge.

10:18

Quote, "The top question is definitely

10:20

around capacity." Pachai said all

10:23

constraints bet on power, land, supply

10:26

chain constraints. How do you ramp up to

10:28

meet this extraordinary demand for this

10:30

moment? He says that we got our

10:32

investments right for a long time and

10:34

we've done it all in a way of driving

10:36

efficiencies and doing it in a world in

10:38

a worldclass way. Google has been in the

10:40

right place at the right time over and

10:42

over again. Look at their investments

10:43

that they did in Whimo. Were those

10:45

poorly illustrated investments? No, they

10:47

did quite well. Look at their

10:49

investments that they did in artificial

10:51

intelligence and models. Chachbt got the

10:53

release first, but Google had been

10:54

working at that for a long period of

10:56

time and now Gemini is one of the top

10:58

used models. Look at their investments

10:59

in TPUs. Google is decades ahead of that

11:02

and comparison to companies like

11:04

Microsoft. Another present investment

11:06

for Google. Sundar Pachai has been on

11:08

top of this for a long period of time.

11:10

And right now he feels like the

11:12

unprecedented demand in AI is their

11:14

single biggest constraint. It is the

11:17

single biggest thing preventing them

11:19

from winning this entire race, from

11:20

consolidating an enormous amount of AI

11:23

demand under Google. Now, you may

11:25

question whether or not Sundar Pachai is

11:27

right. What if this is just a bet that

11:28

they're getting wrong? But in Google's

11:30

mind, what they're seeing right now as

11:33

they're running their business is that

11:34

they have all of the tools, they have

11:36

the TPUs, they have the best models,

11:37

they have the cyber security, they have

11:39

all the infrastructure, they have all

11:40

the distribution, but they do not have

11:42

the compute capacity. And Google's in a

11:44

situation where they're turning away

11:46

great customers, saying, "You know what?

11:48

We can't take your money because we

11:50

don't have enough capacity to fulfill

11:52

your demand. They are turning away

11:54

enterprise clients because they can't

11:57

provide enough capacity." Can you

11:59

imagine how frustrating it is as a

12:01

business to sit there with all all this

12:04

planning that you've done, all this

12:05

research, owning the best models, having

12:07

the TPUs, having everything already

12:10

baked to this point. It is ready to go.

12:12

But then you don't have the physical

12:14

infrastructure to be able to back up the

12:16

unprecedented demand. That must be

12:18

incredibly frustrating. It is giving

12:21

away a massive advantage that you've

12:23

built for decades. Senator Pachai does

12:25

not want to do that. He believes it's

12:27

critical not to do that. So they are

12:30

building and they're building fast.

12:32

Google is wanting to build faster than

12:33

Meta. They're wanting to build as fast

12:35

as Amazon in this AI demand. And to do

12:39

this, they need to raise a lot of cash.

12:41

And that brings us to the next big

12:42

question. A lot of people are looking at

12:44

this saying, "Well, if Google makes so

12:46

much money, $170 billion in operating

12:48

income, over $130 billion in net income,

12:52

why can't they just afford to do this

12:53

themselves?" And there's a couple

12:55

reasons why. First of all, they outline

12:57

this in this segment here called

12:58

investing in a balanced way. AI is

13:01

driving an expansionary moment for

13:03

Alphabet. The company is experiencing

13:05

strong demand for its AI solutions and

13:07

services from enterprises and consumers

13:09

at levels that are exceeding the

13:11

company's available supply. By scaling

13:13

its investment, the company seeks to

13:15

expand its foundational infrastructure

13:17

infrastructure to support the

13:19

significant growth opportunity ahead.

13:21

During its Q1206 earnings call, Alphabet

13:25

announced that its 2026 capital

13:27

expenditures are expected to exceed 180

13:31

to 190 billion and that it expects in

13:34

2027 capital expenditures to

13:36

significantly increase from 2026.

13:40

Now, let's just look at these numbers

13:42

here. Yes, Google makes like $170

13:44

billion in operating income. It's a lot

13:47

of money, but the number that they said

13:49

they're going to spend this year is 180

13:52

to 190 billion. That's more than what

13:55

Google makes. They're spending that in

13:57

2026 alone. Then they mention in 2027

14:00

they expect this number to go up

14:02

significantly. They literally say

14:05

significantly. We don't know what that

14:07

is, but it's going to be a lot higher.

14:09

These numbers, by the way, in and of

14:11

themselves are already way higher than

14:13

analysts expected. Analysts were

14:15

expecting numbers that were in the range

14:17

of 130 billion and they're already at

14:20

180 to 190. And they're saying that this

14:23

number is going to go way higher in

14:24

2027. Google makes a lot of money, $170

14:28

billion, but they don't make 200 billion

14:30

per year. They don't make $250 billion.

14:33

So Google quite literally cannot afford

14:36

upfront to pay for all of these

14:38

investments. They have to get money in

14:40

other places. And when a big company

14:42

like Google's raising money, there's two

14:44

ways to raise it. You have the debt

14:45

markets and you have the equity markets.

14:47

And we can look at what Google has done.

14:49

Google has already tapped the debt

14:52

markets. They've already tapped it dry.

14:54

In terms of debt issuance over the last

14:56

year, Alphabet has raised $85 billion of

15:00

debt across six major currencies and

15:02

markets, bringing its total debt balance

15:04

to over hundred billion. So the people

15:07

saying, why doesn't Google just raise

15:09

more debt? Why are they diluting

15:10

shareholders? They already have. They've

15:13

raised $85 billion of debt in just the

15:15

past 12 months. If they went ahead and

15:17

raised another $80 billion, they would

15:20

have $180 billion of debt, which is a

15:22

lot of debt, even for a company the size

15:24

of Google. That's a lot of debt. And

15:27

unfortunately, when you do that, it

15:29

makes your balance sheet, your debt

15:31

rating go down. They don't want to raise

15:32

that much debt. They don't want to pay

15:34

that much interest. Furthermore, there's

15:36

a lot of analysts looking at this and

15:38

banking analysts saying that the debt

15:40

markets in general are somewhat tapped.

15:42

Like it's a lot harder to get debt right

15:44

now than it was previously cuz lenders

15:47

are being a lot more strict with their

15:48

terms. So Google got debt already. They

15:51

got $80 billion of it. While the debt

15:53

markets were good, now that the debt

15:54

markets are sour, they're turning to the

15:56

equity markets. And this is another

15:58

thing that Google's doing in an

16:00

incredibly intelligent way. They're

16:02

getting ahead of the equity markets. And

16:04

by that I mean that Google is now

16:06

raising $80 billion of equity with

16:09

Delilution right before SpaceX goes for

16:12

their IPO. And wouldn't you know SpaceX

16:15

IPO, the 5% that they're wanting to

16:17

raise from the public is around $75

16:20

billion. So Google's saying, "Hey

16:23

SpaceX, before you get to market and get

16:25

all that juicy money from all the public

16:27

investors, we're going to get there

16:28

first. We're going to dry up that

16:30

liquidity before you have access to it.

16:32

We're also going to get there before the

16:34

anthropic IPO and before the OpenAI IPO.

16:38

Google's going to be first to the equity

16:40

markets, not last. This means that

16:41

Google has the advantage. They're

16:43

beating all these massive companies

16:45

looking for public money before they get

16:47

there. And Google will likely be able to

16:49

raise this money easily again because

16:51

investors aren't already putting money

16:53

into SpaceX, into OpenAI, and into

16:55

Anthropic. What Google's actually doing

16:57

here is more of a preemptive strike.

16:59

They are going for the equity markets

17:01

before they have been tapped by all

17:03

these other major AI companies like the

17:05

SpaceX, like the OpenAI, like the

17:07

Anthropic. We know that these companies

17:08

are going to be doing staggering level

17:10

of IPOs, raising hundreds of billions of

17:13

dollars in aggregate. There is a finite

17:15

amount of capital available to invest in

17:17

AI companies. Google knows this. They

17:20

know that if they wait too long, they'll

17:22

be the last in line trying to raise

17:24

capital from a market that doesn't have

17:26

a lot more capital to give. They will be

17:28

sucking all the oxygen out of the room

17:30

for these other IPOs. Not only helping

17:33

Google, but damaging their competition

17:34

and their ability to fund these

17:36

competitive threats in the process. See,

17:39

what Google's doing is not only

17:40

advantaging themselves, but they're

17:42

disadvantaging these other companies

17:44

hoping to raise capital as well. They're

17:46

making it more difficult by sucking away

17:48

all the available capital before they

17:50

even have a chance. This is a double

17:52

whammy. It is a preemptive strategic

17:55

strike at their competitors. Google is

17:57

saying that we are going to invest

17:58

endlessly in AI. We are going to make it

18:01

so that open AI and anthropic struggle

18:03

to gain any level of profitability and

18:05

pricing power. We're going to build out

18:07

a massive moat because Google has

18:09

something that these other companies do

18:10

not have. See, Google is not just a

18:13

commodity reseller of AI. They're not a

18:15

company that just spun up some servers

18:16

and created a server farm and is

18:18

reselling AI. Google is a vertically

18:21

integrated enterprise of AI features

18:23

from the security to the distribution to

18:26

the TPUs to every part of this. They

18:28

have the entire layer as well as Google

18:30

has many ways to benefit from this

18:32

personally. So Google can soak up all

18:35

this capital build out this massive moat

18:38

with artificial intelligence

18:40

distribution. They can infuse it in all

18:42

the features throughout all of their

18:43

business at the same time making it so

18:45

that they have a highly differentiated

18:47

product. At the same time, they are

18:49

sucking up both institutional and retail

18:52

money in the process. This is both a

18:54

defensive and offensive move by Sunundar

18:56

Pachai. When you really think about what

18:58

they're doing here, it is strategically

19:01

brilliant. It's something that you would

19:03

have to plan for, but Google seems to

19:05

have already done this and they're

19:06

executing it well. Google already knows

19:08

that they have a massive lead in this

19:11

category. They know that all they have

19:13

to do to protect their lead and protect

19:15

their moat is keep momentum going. Keep

19:17

the ball rolling. Keep this snowball

19:19

getting bigger and bigger and definitely

19:21

don't let it crumble to pieces because

19:23

you don't have capacity. That'd be a

19:25

very stupid reason to give up the lead.

19:28

And Google knows this. They say that

19:29

their AI momentum is picking up pace.

19:32

Alphabet's planned investment will

19:33

support its business momentum, including

19:36

Alphabet's revenue growing 22%

19:38

year-over-year to $ 110 billion in Q1.

19:42

That's over 110 billion in a single

19:45

3-month period. Google search and other

19:47

revenue grew by 19%. Cloud revenue grew

19:50

63% year-over-year in Q1 with backlogs

19:53

nearly doubling quarter over-arter to

19:55

more than 460 billion with approximately

19:58

50% expected to be recognized as revenue

20:01

over the next 24 months. Google's

20:03

subscriptions Google reached 350 million

20:06

paid subscriptions with Q1 2026

20:09

representing the company's strongest

20:10

quarter ever for consumer AI plans.

20:13

Google now has over 8.5 million

20:15

developers building new experiences with

20:17

its models monthly and its first-party

20:19

model API are processing 19 billion

20:21

tokens per minute. A six time increase

20:24

year-over-year. The metrics are

20:26

staggering. And these aren't the only

20:28

ones. When you actually look at what's

20:30

going on with Google, like when you

20:31

literally just visually look at it, it

20:34

literally looks fake how much demand

20:35

they have. Their demand is outscaling

20:38

their revenue growth. it's outscaling

20:40

what they're able to provide at an

20:42

unprecedented pace. And that's why they

20:45

need more cash today. I think it's good

20:47

to just take a minute and simply think

20:49

about what's going on. Instead of

20:51

looking at the headlines and becoming

20:53

concerned that they're selling shares

20:54

and it's a lot of money, I really want

20:56

to just take a step back and consider

20:58

for a minute simply what's going on.

21:01

Google believes that there is an

21:03

investment they can make that is so

21:05

good, it's so good that they need to

21:08

literally dilute shares of their own

21:10

company to raise equity to make this

21:12

investment. That's how good it is. And

21:15

that's an investment that's so good that

21:16

they've already raised $80 billion by

21:19

going to the debt markets. And that's an

21:21

investment that's so good that they've

21:23

already spent all of their operating

21:25

cash flow and their net income. All

21:27

their discretionary money is being spent

21:29

on this investment. That's what Google's

21:31

doing here. So, in terms of whether or

21:34

not they believe this investment is

21:36

worthwhile, that shows you where they

21:37

stand. They're willing to do whatever it

21:40

takes to make this investment and make

21:41

sure they continue to lead in AI. And I

21:44

have full reason to believe them. Like

21:46

we highlighted, every metric for Google

21:48

is already showing that this is paying

21:50

off. Buffett once talked about the ideal

21:52

business. He described what he believed

21:54

was the perfect business. And this is

21:57

what he described. This is a

21:58

hypothetical of Buffett's ideal

22:00

business.

22:01

>> Sure, it's a good question. The the

22:03

ideal business

22:06

is one that earns very high returns on

22:08

capital and can keep using lots of

22:10

capital at those high returns. I mean,

22:12

that becomes a compounding machine.

22:14

>> So, those are both important

22:15

ingredients. It's not enough just to

22:17

have high returns, but you have to have

22:19

high returns with a lot of capital

22:21

invested. And that's where you get the

22:22

compounding machine. So if you have your

22:24

choice, if you could put a $100 million

22:27

into a business that earns 20% on that

22:30

capital, say 20 million, ideally it

22:34

would be able to earn 20% on 120 million

22:37

the following year and 144 million the

22:39

following year and so on that you could

22:42

keep redeploying capital at these same

22:44

returns over time. But there are very

22:47

very very few businesses like that. the

22:49

really unfortunately the good businesses

22:52

you know take a Coca-Cola or seas candy

22:55

they don't require much capital and

22:57

incremental capital doesn't produce

22:59

anything like the returns that this

23:00

fundamental return that's produced by

23:03

some great intangible Google

23:05

historically was one of these companies

23:07

that earned so much more money than they

23:09

could adequately reinvest. So what did

23:11

Google do during that time period? Well,

23:13

they just bought back shares. They just

23:15

returned it back to the shareholder.

23:16

They said, "Hey, look, we have these

23:18

profitable businesses. We generate way

23:20

more cash than we need to adequately

23:21

reinvest back in our business. So, we're

23:23

going to just return all this extra back

23:25

to you, the shareholder." And they did

23:27

that for a long period of time. Google

23:29

was a cash flow generative, highly

23:31

profitable, cash returning business for

23:33

years and years and years. But then

23:36

something happened which made the

23:37

equation flip. Google has a unique

23:40

opportunity to invest enormous amounts

23:42

of capital today at what they believe

23:45

with high conviction will be very

23:47

attractive returns for their

23:48

shareholders. Now again, Google's not

23:51

just racing out looking for investments.

23:53

They're not just racing out throwing

23:54

money left and right willy-nilly hoping

23:57

that it turns out well. This is

23:59

something that just happened. It was

24:01

fate. It was fortune. It was a lot of

24:03

preparation and building out the TPUs

24:05

and building out the AI models. But

24:07

having this massive influx of AI demand

24:10

was also just a part of fate and Google

24:12

is wellprepared to take advantage of it.

24:15

They're now saying once we finally found

24:18

something that's in our wheelhouse that

24:20

we know very well that we don't have to

24:22

look outside of our business to earn

24:23

high returns. We're not just doing

24:25

acquisitions. We're not buying some

24:27

random company with very low prospects.

24:30

This is something that happened that's a

24:32

one-time thing. The AI influx is a

24:34

dynamic change in the market. We have a

24:37

huge advantage here and a huge

24:38

opportunity to invest increasing amounts

24:40

of capital and get very attractive

24:42

returns. This is the ideal business that

24:45

Bergkshire is looking at. And funny

24:47

enough, even though Warren Buffett said

24:49

that years ago, now they're investing

24:52

$10 billion in this ideal business.

24:54

Bergkshire obviously believes that the

24:56

money that they're investing today will

24:58

have attractive returns. And I believe

25:00

that Google's intuition here and the

25:02

management conviction is correct. They

25:05

are likely to have incredibly high

25:06

barriers to entry for their AI

25:08

solutions. Although companies can spin

25:10

up server racks, there's very few that

25:12

have the entire stack like Google. They

25:14

have the TPUs, that have the security,

25:16

that have the distribution. Google's

25:17

also a very uniquely positioned company

25:20

to have the billions of users in

25:22

distribution natively to integrate all

25:24

of this computational power within their

25:26

services. They're already giving you

25:28

previews of what they can do already

25:30

just with their basic applications like

25:31

how AI's integrated into YouTube. It's

25:34

integrated into your documents, into

25:35

Drive, into PDF viewing, all of this

25:37

type of stuff. But there's far more that

25:39

they can go. There's far more runway. So

25:42

Google is in a position to have a

25:44

massive capital barrier mode. They're in

25:47

a position to get all this capital

25:49

before their competitors with XAI,

25:51

before their competitors with Anthropic

25:53

or with OpenAI have access to this

25:55

capital. They're in a position to build

25:57

out an incredibly powerful full stack AI

26:00

solution. Google is a very uniquely

26:03

positioned company to benefit from this.

26:05

So, as far as I'm concerned, I'm staying

26:07

in Google. Now, moving on, let's get to

26:09

some news. Here we have Tom Lee recently

26:10

going on to CNBC and explaining why he

26:12

believes that the next three years will

26:15

be the best years for investors in the

26:17

stock market. Let's go ahead and listen

26:18

to his reasoning.

26:20

>> Well, I think a couple things are coming

26:23

together, Joe, um that are going to

26:25

really support a few things that may

26:28

only happen like once in our lifetime.

26:30

One is I think this the US economic

26:33

growth rate is actually starting to step

26:34

up. Um you know in other words we could

26:37

grow at 4%. And for a you know a mature

26:41

largest economy in the world to start to

26:42

accelerate growth that that's pretty um

26:45

astounding. Um the second is the US is

26:48

one of the biggest exporters of the most

26:50

important tool in the next 10-15 years

26:53

which is AI products and that means we

26:56

are a net essentially exporter of a

26:59

highv value product and there's so much

27:02

capital I think misallocated today

27:04

because so much of it is held in private

27:06

alternatives but it's going to move into

27:08

the public market. So I do think that

27:11

plus the demographic tailwind of

27:12

millennials and Gen Z uh adding to the

27:15

workforce but then also beginning to

27:17

inherit generational wealth. I think

27:20

that is going to set up for after 2026

27:23

perhaps you know like you know over the

27:26

next 2 years some of the biggest gains

27:28

of the stock market in our lifetime.

27:30

>> So Tom Lee points out a couple important

27:32

things here. One of which I completely

27:33

agree with which is the United States

27:35

has become a massive exporter of AI

27:39

which if you look at historically why

27:41

the US has done so well if you just look

27:43

at the US economy and the stock market

27:45

and why it's really thrived a lot of it

27:47

has been software the United States has

27:49

been a massive exporter of software

27:51

services which are high margin very

27:53

profitable consistently build services

27:56

now we have the SAS apocalypse software

27:59

stocks are going down software is the

28:01

old news. But then we have the new

28:03

thing. The new shiny thing, of course,

28:04

is AI. In this case, AI is a very real

28:07

product offering enormous amounts of

28:09

value. It's so powerful that it's

28:11

literally disrupting many software

28:13

companies. And which country is

28:14

investing by far the most into

28:16

artificial intelligence? Well, the

28:18

United States is. It's not even close.

28:19

And then the last thing that he points

28:21

out, which I again agree with, is there

28:22

is going to be a lot of generational

28:24

wealth, a lot of pass down wealth that

28:26

should spur economic growth. I believe

28:28

that younger demographics spend money in

28:31

different ways. They spend on different

28:32

services than older demographics. So,

28:34

you're going to see a lot of boom. And I

28:36

believe a lot of stock market companies

28:38

do well as a result of that. So, even

28:40

though this seems a little bit

28:42

far-fetched to have the best years of

28:43

our life ahead, it also doesn't seem

28:46

impossible. With what's going on with AI

28:48

today, the massive influx investment in

28:50

capital, I believe that there is a

28:53

chance we'll have incredibly good gains

28:54

in the stock market over the next three

28:56

years. and I think it's a great time to

28:58

stay invested. Now, next we get to news

28:59

of what's going on in Hollywood. This is

29:02

something that I I think a lot of people

29:03

are overlooking. This is a dynamic

29:06

change happening to movie making and it

29:08

specifically has to do with YouTube.

29:10

YouTubers seem to be taking over the box

29:12

office, especially over the past week.

29:14

AMC had its best month ever, the most

29:17

traffic ever had in history. Cinemark

29:19

also did exceptionally well. These movie

29:21

theaters are pulling in the mass amounts

29:23

of people to see movies. But it's not

29:25

for the new Mandalorian movie. It's for

29:27

movies that YouTubers are making.

29:29

Backroom is a horror film. $10 million

29:31

is what they spent to produce this film.

29:33

Open to an extraordinary 81 million.

29:36

Smashing records for distributor A24.

29:39

And Obsession, a horror film made on a

29:41

budget of 750,000,

29:43

gross 26.4 million in its third week

29:46

after release, a 10% jump from the

29:49

previous weekend, and crossed $100

29:51

million domestically. So again, this

29:54

movie Obsession, it cost $750,000

29:58

to make and they're now grossing well

30:00

over $und00 million. Now, I saw

30:03

Obsession the first weekend that it came

30:04

out. I was looking at movies to watch.

30:07

I'm not a huge horror fan, but I'll I'll

30:09

watch them if they look interesting

30:10

enough. And this one had an intriguing

30:12

premise. I saw a couple of the

30:13

commercials and I'm like looking at this

30:15

Wish Gone Bad. And then I looked at the

30:17

ratings on it. And notice right here,

30:20

this is Rotten Tomatoes. Now, I get it.

30:22

The critics can be wrong sometimes. The

30:24

users can be wrong sometimes as well.

30:26

But when you have a 96% critic and a 94%

30:29

user, that's a pretty good consensus

30:31

that this is likely a a very well done

30:34

movie. And it was. Obsession was one of

30:37

the best horror movies I've seen in a

30:38

long time. It was original. And even

30:41

though it was created for $750,000,

30:44

there's no way that I thought this movie

30:46

would be made for that cheap. It looked

30:48

good. It looked very good. In fact, I

30:51

would say that this movie looked better

30:53

aesthetically than many movies shot for

30:55

like a hundred million dollars. I don't

30:57

know how they did it. The lighting, the

30:59

ambiance, the acting, just everything

31:01

looked really upclass for a movie made

31:03

for less than a million dollars. Now,

31:05

the incredible part of this is that this

31:07

movie that again costs less than a

31:09

million dollars to film, is actually

31:11

doing better than The Mandalorian and

31:13

Grou, a Star Wars spin-off with a $165

31:17

million price tag. That one came in

31:19

third after the two YouTubers films. It

31:23

tumbled 70% in its second week and its

31:25

opening weekend it was the lowest ever

31:27

for a Star Wars film under Disney. So

31:30

look what's going on right now. The

31:31

company that has Star Wars, one of the

31:34

biggest pieces of IP ever. Like it seems

31:36

like bulletproof IP just came out with

31:39

their new movie, which is a new one in a

31:41

long time, The Mandalorian and Grou.

31:43

They spent hundreds of millions of

31:45

dollars to make it and they're being

31:47

outplayed and outmatched. They're being

31:48

beat in the box office by two YouTubers

31:51

movies that are both created for less

31:53

than $10 million. One of them created

31:55

for less than 1 million. That is an

31:57

insane underdog story. So I believe this

31:59

is the time that Hollywood will wake up.

32:01

They will use this as a shocking way of

32:03

now turning to YouTubers original

32:05

stories, lowerbudget films that feel

32:08

very good because they're led by

32:09

storytelling, acting, and character

32:12

development. They're not led by CGI and

32:14

AI explosions. These movies were

32:17

entertaining because of the story they

32:18

told, because of the pacing, because of

32:20

how they were directed. So, I believe

32:22

we're going to see a lot more of this.

32:24

Hollywood is going to be turning to

32:25

YouTubers to make more of these movies,

32:27

and I'm all for it. Now, moving on, we

32:29

get to the fail of the week. In this

32:30

case, it is Andrew Left of Citron

32:33

Research. He has been found guilty from

32:35

scheming for scheming to manipulate the

32:37

stock market via media campaigns. Andrew

32:40

Left used his TV appearances to disguise

32:42

his intentions, manipulate the stock

32:44

market, and pat his pockets, said First

32:47

Assistant United States Attorney. So,

32:48

the government goes after Andrew Left.

32:50

They catch him and they say that you've

32:51

been really bad at manipulating the

32:53

stock market. That's illegal. So, we're

32:55

going to throw you in jail. And at first

32:57

glance, you may just look at this and

32:58

think, "What did he do that was so bad?

33:00

Did he just pump his stocks? Was he just

33:02

bearish on different companies and

33:04

that's why they're throwing him in

33:05

jail?" That's not really what's going

33:07

on. What Andrew actually did was much

33:09

worse. One of these examples is very

33:11

damning. In 2018, Andrew Left wrote a

33:14

portfolio manager about Nvidia Corp. He

33:16

said, quote, "Do you want to make some

33:18

fast money? Put together a thesis of why

33:21

Nvidia is oversold. We can destroy it.

33:23

Just read the analyst note from this

33:25

past quarter and assemble your best

33:27

ideas." Later that morning, Left took

33:29

financial positions in Nvidia, including

33:31

a short-dated call options that expired

33:33

3 days later. left them promoted Nvidia

33:36

as a favorable investment to Citron's

33:38

Twitter account, stating, "Cit buys

33:40

Nvidia. This is the first time in two

33:42

years the stock has an appealing

33:44

riskreward to investors. We see 165

33:47

before we see 120." Despite his

33:49

representation that he expected Nvidia

33:51

share price to rise to 165, less than 2

33:54

hours after announcing Citron buys

33:57

Nvidia, left sold all his pre-weeted

34:00

positions. Nvidia was trading within a

34:02

range of 150 to 151 and he sold for a

34:05

profit of $960,000.

34:08

So Andrew left says Citron's buying

34:10

Nvidia and I have a price target that's

34:12

like $20 higher and I'm very bullish on

34:15

it. It's not going to go down. And then

34:16

within 2 hours of that announcement, he

34:18

cashes in on short-term options for a

34:21

million dollar gain and it's completely

34:23

out of the position. That is textbook

34:26

market manipulation. He had no intention

34:28

of keeping Nvidia and riding it up to

34:29

his price target. He was just trying to

34:31

bump the stock up so he could

34:32

immediately exit and sell into the

34:35

liquidity that the market was providing.

34:37

And Andrew Left repeatedly did stuff

34:39

like this. He would take short positions

34:41

and he would say that the stock is going

34:43

to go down, but then immediately after

34:45

releasing that news that he believes the

34:47

stock was going to go down, he would

34:48

immediately close those positions for a

34:49

quick gain. And he wouldn't tell people

34:51

that he had exited those positions. This

34:53

is exactly the type of behavior that is

34:55

short-term manipulation. Andrew Left was

34:57

fine making money from his followers at

35:00

their expense. He was fine trading

35:02

against them, having them buy into the

35:03

liquidity of a position he was selling.

35:05

So, he'd make money for himself at the

35:07

expense of his followers. So, this is an

35:09

unfortunate case for Andrew Left. It

35:11

shows that even when you can make a lot

35:12

of money in the short term, the $20

35:14

million or so that Andrew Left has made

35:16

is just not worth it. Manipulating the

35:18

stock market, trading against your

35:20

followers is just not worth it. It's a

35:22

bad game to play. It's completely

35:24

dishonest. And even though the

35:26

government isn't perfect at applying

35:28

these rules equally, they are going

35:30

after these people doing this. And I

35:31

think that overall that's a good thing.

35:33

That's it for this episode. See you in

35:34

the next one.

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