ThE fOur YeAr cyCle iS dEAd

Hello followers of the 4-year journey.

Bob Lucas here. June 4th, 2026. Hope

you're doing well. Of course, this is

another update of the uh the 4-year

journey and where we stand in the

current Bitcoin cycle. The agenda for

today, four topics. The retest here that

we're seeing in Bitcoin that was always

coming. If you remember the last video,

we talked a lot about that. Uh the

bottle portfolio makes its first buy

action in 3.5 years. Um not because I

believe the cycle low is in, but it's an

advantageous time to begin

reaccumulation.

Talk briefly about why it's never

different even no matter what all the

bullards will want to tell you online.

Um it's never different and then what's

next, which I believe is the final stage

of this cycle. So with with that, let's

get into it. If you go back and watch

the last video and the video before that

as well, uh pretty clear in what I

thought would the outcome would be. And

just just just to let you know in in

general, a cycle very very rarely and I

mean less than 10%, probably more like

5% will ever end very early and also on

the first significant decline from the

high. There's always a retest. There's

generally always a lower low, at least

one lower low, if not a second lower

low. And we had the peak up here on in

October, which occurred, of course, not

coincidentally, this time, uh, exactly

where the last two cycle peaks occurred.

We broke below the 10-month moving

average. We confirmed that the cycle had

peaked, and then we went into this

capitulation into the February lows

around the $60,000 mark. From there,

after a five month decline and sentiment

really at a negative level, we were well

overdue a bounce and we got that bounce.

And if you recall in the last video and

the video before that, the expectation

uh was that it would follow the script

of how all asset classes generally in a

decline in a bare market would respond,

especially after a significant 50%

decline of that nature into the February

lows. The expectation was a gap fill, a

counter trend move, one that gets the

bulls who failed to give up to failed to

to acknowledge that the market was in a

bare market trend and started coming up

with narratives that this was the start

of the next bull market. So that move

back towards the 10-month moving average

was a natural counter trending move.

took a couple of months, maybe even

little bit longer than than maybe many

expected, but that was also a function

of the fact that we went down sharply

over a long period of time. So that

lengthened duration of that decline

warranted a little bit of a longer

counter trend move, but back to roughly

where I expected that trend, that

counter trend move to end around that

85,000 level. I think it hit just almost

shy of 83,000.

At that point, the bulls, many of the

bulls at least, hadn't given up. They

flipped their narratives from one to the

next. And I'll talk about that a little

bit later on. And of course, they got

trapped. They convinced people to

leverage up at that point because

Bitcoin is going to follow every other

asset class and and hit that 125,000

all-time high level very rapidly and

leave everybody behind. Uh, of course

this time is now proving that it's not

different and we've now since reversed

that, dropped another 25% or so and in

the last few few days have basically

retested the February lows. Now, we

haven't made technically a lower low at

this point, but it's irrelevant from a

cycle perspective because cycles don't

measure price or the absolute price

level. It measures the cycle over time

and this move especially with the

separation of the first decline into the

February lows. This move to the May high

and subsequent retest pushes the cycle

low now towards or the current cycle

count to month 43 of the cycle. So here

we stand right now on month 43 retesting

the February lows and the cycle

continues.

Now, I'm going to present the the kind

of the bullcase

uh that people may be looking for,

searching for. And this move down to

retest those lows

here the last few days

represents the first possibility of a a

of a slightly shorter 4year cycle low

and a double bottom that then results in

a move up or a basing pattern into say

late summer eventually a push above the

May highs and then the next fouryear

cycle becomes clear. Um there is

precedent for that type of action in

very bullish assets or very bullish

environments.

Um and therefore the reason for

beginning to add some to the model

portfolio right at that level was

primarily for that potential outcome. I

give that potential outcome pretty low

weight from a sort of a probability

perspective maybe around the 25% level.

But it is a possibility. Okay. Um and

therefore accumulating or starting to

add some back to the model portfolio at

that level to me makes some sense

because the downside from 65,000 or

60,000 to the four year to the eventual

fouryear cycle low is now far less. So

from a riskreward perspective or just

positioning for the long term, beginning

to starting to nibble and add at these

levels makes sense to me.

So now with this retest of this level,

adding some back in um has been

accomplished at the 65,000 level. The

model portfolio is always available on

uh the Bitcoin Live website. There's a

link to that in the description below on

the video. That hasn't changed. But as

an update right here, the model

portfolio here has added 10 BTC at

65,000 level, leaving still a

considerable amount of cash overall, but

moving the BTC weight of the portfolio.

Again, this is a model for illustration

purposes at 58% versus 41% cash.

Currently, what I'm thinking is the best

strategy, and this is always subject to

change, is that at the 53,000 level, all

cash that remains to buy the remaining

Bitcoin and get back to a 100%

allocation. At the 53,000 level, we're

tagging the midpoint of the entire

4-year cycle. So as you can see right

here, we had a first uh sort of quarter

of the cycle to a peak. Then we

consolidated. Here is roughly the

midpoint of the cycle around month 2122

before the second leg. And often you'll

get a retest

of those levels in any bare market

decline. Now 53,000 may seem extreme.

However, that's what barely 15 or so

percent lower from this level. And

within just the last two to three weeks,

Bitcoin has come down um $20,000. So, it

did that in two to three weeks, it

declined 26%.

So if you believe that Bitcoin is not

capable of that, then I think you're

really ignoring the historical

volatility of Bitcoin and what it does

in bare market declines. Uh in prior

bare markets, of course, the 202122

decline was a 77% from peak to trough

decline. The prior cycle was 86 or 87%

and the one before more than 90%

decline. Currently this decline from the

highs

sits at only around 51 52%. So again uh

yes I do expect over these cycles as

this asset class or as as Bitcoin

matures gets wider adoption and the

market cap overall significantly

increases that those drawdowns in the

bare market decline won't be as extreme.

But currently compared to the last cycle

just you know three to four years ago at

this point of a 77% decline seeing

Bitcoin decline by around 65% to 70% for

this cycle here should is not an

expectation is not a prediction but hell

it shouldn't become a surprise to

anybody if Bitcoin is capable of doing

that and right now even just tagging the

53,000 level right here is a 57 7%

decline from the top. Given that the

last one was was 77, I don't think

that's um uh sort of an unusual position

to take, especially given the sentiment

out there and and the overall uh kind of

the mechanics of where we stand right

now. The equity markets, tech, the

NASDAQ, typical assets that typically

Bitcoin would be well correlated with

are pushing all-time highs. And Bitcoin

has completely decoupled from that. You

had the biggest buyer in the market

basically being crowded out right now

and Michael Sailor. ETF outflows are

horrible. There's a quantum uh narrative

out there that that's creating some FUD

in the space, but you know that they

they're real considerations for large

capital allocators and retail just

wasn't around this cycle. There is no

new blood in this cycle and let's be

honest about that. There have been scams

after scams and just vaporware. And I

know that's not Bitcoin itself, but that

is the ecosystem that Bitcoin is part of

that is negative negatively weighing in

weighing on Bitcoin here. So, um yes,

you know, you may be asking, well, if

you believe that and you believe the

cycle hasn't ended just yet, why would

you buy at 65? And again, that is

because the 4-year cycle portfolio is

not intended to be a complete timing

thing. I would have gone 100% cash or

close to it on the breakdown and look to

buy at lower levels. We would have done

it the cycle before, but the the model

portfolio is essentially, and I've said

this in the beginning, it's a huddle

strategy. It's designed to always have

Bitcoin allocated to be

exposed and positioned for surprise. uh

kind of a super cycle move for example

if that ever were to happen. Um those

types of environments. It's designed for

people who were huddling but wants to

wanted to then take advantage of the

extremes and the volatility that you see

in Bitcoin. So it's intended to just

trim a little bit near the top peak, add

it back at the bottom and rinse and

repeat. And over time the goal being to

steadily increase the stack of Bitcoin

that we have. And so far that's worked.

And the way this is working out right

now, um, I'm hoping that that will be

again the result by the end of this

cycle. The good news is that with this

counter trim move that we saw into the

May highs around the 83,000 level,

Bitcoin really should not now trade

above that level in the next 3 to four

months without a new cycle being formed.

Uh typically when you get that downtrend

move and the 10-month also is a is a

very good indicator for trend. Very rare

to see it go up and close back above

that 10-month moving average or even

breach that average comfortably

or get back above the prior recent high

intermediate cycle high. And in this

case it was last month's high of around

83. So the good news is that even if

this becomes a double bottom and we have

a shorter 43month 4year cycle low um

that

reallocating back above 83 84 85 or in

that sort of area with the remainder of

the of the model portfolio would still

leave the portfolio in a situation where

the it would accumulate more Bitcoin

over that cycle and that's also with a

very diffic that would also be a very

difficult kind of ending to to to the

bare market or the fouryear cycle and

still be able to come out ahead is a

good thing. The goal of course is to get

as much Bitcoin as we can, not to profit

from a dollar or fear perspective. I've

always maintained that position that you

can be a hodler. can be a long-term

believer and still be okay with selling

some Bitcoin

to add or the goal to to obtain more

Bitcoin in a in a in a fashion that is

uh I wouldn't say relatively safe but

uses the long-term changes in trends to

be able to identify when is a good time

to release some or when it's a good time

to buy some. It's interesting because

that concept uh over the eight years of

publishing these reports, you know, some

of the dieards are like, you never sell

your Bitcoin, never sell your Bitcoin.

Those same people follow Michael Sailor.

And of course, now, you know, after he

said, "Never sell your Bitcoin," he's

selling some Bitcoin. So, it's funny how

that works out. But um our goal is if we

can get a more traditional end to this

cycle which means around the October

time frame where the timing is in the

heart of the cycle then and down to a

sort of level that sort of mirrors prior

cycles with some diminishing aspect to

it. around that 53,000 level would

result in a good addition to the

portfolio. So, this model portfolio

would then in that scenario be able to

get up to around 55 BTC from the

beginning 25 uh where it started at 25.

Of course, Bitcoin can hit the 40,000

level and below, but this portfolio does

not intend to be greedy like that. does

not try and pick absolute bottoms and

tops, although it's been very good at

picking bottoms.

53,000 I would be more than content to

go into 100% allocation because I know

over time as a believer in Bitcoin that

regardless of what it does here

or whether it goes much deeper,

nobody knows. I believe that by 2028 or

so that it would be back above the

all-time high levels and moving forward

and then accumulating at that 53,000

level is going to be beneficial. Now, if

you're looking for far more aggressive

spot allocation, positioning, no

leverage, but spot, and more of a an

active trading perspective, that content

I publish twice a week on Bitcoin Live.

I have a link in the uh description as

well if you're interested

um on that service. You can sign up for

that uh on the on the website. So going

forward, yeah, this you know, everyone

keeps saying it's different. This time

is different. I heard every every excuse

out there possible and we did in the

last cycle as well.

But this here is as normal a fouryear

cycle as they come. People started

saying, "We didn't get a big blowoff."

We didn't get a big blowoff in the last

cycle either. And a blowoff is not a

requirement for a 4-year cycle. There

are fourear cycles or other cycles in

every other asset class that sometimes

end up going sideways for the entire

period down into the cycle low and then

move higher again. So, there's no

requirement that that happens. Um,

currently, yeah, on month 43 again, a

new low here. We're now in the window.

So a window for a cycle low is typically

the the the majority of cycle lows will

fall within 10% of the average. The

average being 4748 in this case. 10% on

either side. So like month 43 to month

40 or month 50 51 that window from that

low is roughly where you can kind of

expect a cycle low to hit. So, if you

kind of draw a window like this, of

course, we don't know where the price

forms, but as you can see from a 10% uh

deviation from either side of the

window, Bitcoin is now heading into

that, which is why I said the beginning

of the video, there is a chance, a small

chance, but there is a chance in a very

bullish

outcome that it forms a low here or

maybe bounces sharply and comes back and

kind of retests it one more time, maybe

a a higher low once more around that

October time frame and begins to base

out and start to make the run higher. Uh

so that would become then the

traditional fouryear cycle low. Even if

it's a higher low, it doesn't matter if

it's within that same structure

via time, then that would qualify. Um so

the window has been hit. The four-year

cycle now is getting close or getting

towards an end. But as I mentioned

before, this is not any different to

prior cycles. I mean, we've heard from,

again, I call them bullards because they

really are so biased and have an agenda,

but you know, stock to flow, you know,

plan B, I've been hearing about a plan

C, some nonsense about that. power laws.

You know, we've been talking about I

remember 2024 25 it was all about global

liquidity uh in M2 and the correlations

were so convincing that everybody really

believed all those. Now it's business

cycle and ISM. I I don't know why people

would correlate Bitcoin with the manu a

manufacturing based sort of index but

they're doing that. They convinced

themselves as they did with the M2

liquidity cycle. Of course, we had the

whole ETF narrative, institutional

narrative, the uh the Treasury comp

treasury, Bitcoin Treasury adoption of

Michael Sailor, infinite bid, money

glitches, and all these things. We've

heard about them. Supply shocks, fiat

fiat debasement, the Trump trade, the

the new administration, the SEC change.

I mean, it's just endless institutional

adoption, pensions, it's just been an

endless stream of narratives.

Ultimately, we're down 50 odd percent.

The equity markets, tech is bursting

through all-time highs. And here is

Bitcoin just showing us what a typical

four-year cycle is doing. We also heard

the death of the four-year cycle by

pretty much the majority of pundits out

there. And they were pretty vocal about

it, tagging me on pretty much every

tweet and every post out there.

Uh, of course, that hasn't worked. Now,

you may say, well, why is the four-year

cycle kind of different in that respect?

You know, isn't it just another

indicator? No, it's not because it's not

tethered to these indicators or these

narratives. these cycles simply

they're simply an expression of

collective human sentiment is what they

are and asset class as it's as it's

adopted participants you know they they

kind of move through these predictable

phases you know of optimism greed

speculation disappointment fear

eventually sort of you know apathy and

it's it's a it's a cyclical process that

happens and as people adopt an asset

class they they mimic the existing sort

of culture so so to speak of that asset

class. But what makes Bitcoin a little

more predictable in that sense versus

say stocks and everything else is that

and this is the same goes for gold. Both

of these are really faith-based assets,

right? They're not, you know, they don't

produce cash flows. They don't pay

yields. There's no intrinsic value that

you can anchor price to with all these.

The the the value is determined entirely

by what the next buyer is willing to to

basically pay for it. And that really

does set up well for a more predictable

sort of cycle picture and cycle pattern.

So the you know what ends up happening

is these these major bull markets and

bare markets are driven they're not

really driven by fundamentals like

people want to believe but it's more

about shifts in collective psychology.

You know periods of greed and

speculation push prices far beyond what

seem reasonable and that's where you get

those sort of blowoff moves. But then

periods of you know fear,

disillusionment

uh push them you know really down and

extremely lower. Uh what does change in

a cycle though is not where the peak

occurs. And I I've been trying to be

very deliberate in talking about this in

all the videos because you're not going

to probably see and I would almost bet

in the next four years cycle. It's not

going to peak on month 35 or you're in

around that area. may come later,

probably come earlier in my opinion, but

where it peaks, uh, the duration of the

greed and positive sentiment speculation

will not be the same. What will be very

similar in my opinion will be the

eventual 4-year level, the 4year cycle

low out here in the 2030 time frame

with, of course, some type of window.

And I'm just going to move that out

with a wide kind of window and a wide

price movement. What happens in terms of

the peak? Again, I think people will,

you know, a lot of people think the

four-year cycle is three years up, one

down, three. It's not. It's not. It has

so far played out that way, but that's

not what cycles represent. Cycles

measure the end and the birth of a new

cycle over that 4-year period.

So, I want to get that out there

because, you know, I, you know, I have a

version of this that's not really about

Bitcoin. It's about cycles and the study

of cycles in financial markets versus

sort of that narrative that's centered

around h havinging for example. And my,

you know, I've been very clear also my

belief that the hing has zero impact on

price. maybe had some earlier on, but

the the the the emission schedule, the

inflation rate has always been known and

priced in. It's not a surprise. It's not

like the FOMC where you're kind of

waiting for the announcement of whether

rates will be cut or not or whether the

government's going to print more money

or increase the supply and so on. It's a

predictable schedule. We know when it's

going to happen. We've factored in.

That's why everyone talks about 21

million Bitcoin. They've they've always

talked about 21 million Bitcoin since

the beginning because they know that's

what's going to come and that's where

it's going to end. So, uh it's been

priced at a 21 million um uh supply from

from the very beginning. So,

what comes next? I guess I've I've sort

of touched a lot upon what comes next,

but let's close with that and say, as I

like to say a lot, we don't know

exactly, right? We don't know ultimately

all the price squiggles. What we know is

historically what assets do, how they

trade in similar environments, how

Bitcoin is traded, and how they trade in

in in cycles in general. And as I

mentioned the window where it's just

entering or just have entered that early

phase of the window but we always have

to respect as our primary view a more

traditional cycle in terms of length and

the 48month the 4-year period is

scheduled to end around the October or

November time frame and right now this

has given me zero reason not to expect

that this cycle will and around that

area. And given that we're just

retesting this area here, we're

extremely oversold

in the short and intermediate term that

and also we had a lower here in February

that there's probably going to be a

natural level of support and a bounce

from this point. Of course, that's no

guarantee because we are in the heart of

the bare market, the capitulation phase,

but it's likely that maybe and this is

an early monthly candle. It's only the

fourth of the month. So, this red this

candle may end up exceeding pushing

below the 60,000 level before it ends.

But I would think in the meantime, if

you look at the month uh the weekly

right here, in the meantime, it's

possible that we get a bounce back up

towards that 10 week moving average,

maybe 73 or so, and then resume the

trend lower towards what it's called a

weekly cycle low, and possibly if it's

July or maybe August, possibly the

actual price low of the four-year cycle.

again many variables when it comes into

this which is why from a positioning

standpoint I'm trying to kind of

eliminate all that noise and and where

the best sort of position is and

accumulate at more advantageous levels

which I think this is and anything below

65 certainly anything below 60 I would

encourage people to be adding I also

encourage people to have a huddle

account that's not timed that at all

that is just you accumulate over time.

And if you have one of those, hopefully

you do,

I think anything below 65 or certainly

anything below 60 is a natural add and

buy and hold uh at at these levels. But

to sort of close this out, my view here

is that we still have probably around

about 4 months to go somewhere around

the October, November, December time

frame. could be a little bit earlier.

Again, um that is something we'll have

to wait and see. And something probably

around that sort of 53,000 level makes

sense. Below that point, personally, I

don't think we're going to get there,

although I would not be surprised in the

least. But, uh again, we're at that

point in the final phase of the cycle.

We just want to add the rest of our

position and then we go away for a

couple of years again, right? And that's

I think the beauty and the one of the

reasons why I wanted to start this

journey from the beginning was I didn't

want to make it about trading about

indicators about sentiment about

narratives and so on. It was more about

just you see the cyclical nature of this

market and you're releasing some you're

adding some. You're releasing some and

you're adding some. And that's been the

goal and that will remain the goal. And

we're now at that final stage here as we

enter the second half of 2026. Thanks

for being here. Wishing you all the very

well, all the all the very best. And

check out the links below if you're

interested in more active and more

frequent content. All the best,

everybody.