比亞迪真的遙遙領先特斯拉？

Hello everyone, I'm Cherry. I haven't talked to you about Tesla for a while. Today I'm going to talk to you about Tesla's biggest competitor BYD BRD The dragon head of Chinese new energy vehicles

The top of the industry. Although I personally don't think that BRD is the biggest competitor of Tesla. Because the positioning of these two companies is very different. There are also many differences in culture. In my opinion, Tesla is more like a technology company. And BRD is more like a car manufacturer. But because Tesla is the largest, the most profitable business is still selling electric vehicles. So most people will still compare BYD with Tesla.

I also saw some comments on my video saying that BYD is a big company. Indeed, BYD's electric cars are the world's top selling cars. This is really indescribable. But recently, many people have been reporting that BYD is facing a financial crisis. Even many YouTubers on the Internet now use BYD to compare with HENDA.

They said BYD is like the big group that was bombed in the past. They built a lot of buildings with bars and bars, but no one bought them. The capital chain was cut off and the big group was closed. I think it's a bit exaggerated. But we can still get these numbers out and calculate them for everyone. Let's see what happened to BYD. Is it really the so-called "fucking Tesla"?

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Before we go into the depth of the topic, we need to compare the financial situation of BYD and Tesla in the first quarter of this year. The revenue of BYD in the first quarter of this year is about $234 billion, and Tesla is only about $193 billion. The profit of BYD is $47 billion, and Tesla is about $310 billion.

So in comparison, BYD's net profit is 20% and Tesla's net profit is only 16%. In other words, if we look at the figures for the first quarter of this year, BYD is more profitable than Tesla in terms of revenue and net profit. Let's look at the delivery figures of electric vehicles.

In the first quarter of this year, BYD's stock electric vehicles have delivered 410,000 units of stock electric vehicles. Tesla has delivered 330,000 units. This is just the stock electric vehicle part, because BYD has a large part of the business of oil and gas mixed vehicles. OK, let's look at the other most important part, which is the cash flow.

According to these numbers, we can get information that even though BYD sells more cars than Tesla,

The revenue and the profit are higher than Tesla But the cash flow is worse than Tesla Why do we care so much about the free cash flow of a company? Because many institutions and analysts are actually using free cash to evaluate the company's valuation This is also why there is a part of the reason The current market value of BYD is only 14.8 billion

while Tesla's market value is over $1 trillion. Of course, there are also some reasons why Tesla's current valuation has partially priced in the future development of FSD and Robotaxi. But more importantly, maybe it's because of the financial situation of BRD is not as healthy as Tesla. Let's look at this picture. It's the picture of Tesla and BYD since the third quarter of 2010.

to the total amount of free cash flow. According to the company's public financial report, it tells investors how much cash flow they have in each quarter. Tesla's total amount of free cash flow has been accumulated so far. It is 161 billion dollars. BYD is 139 billion dollars.

It seems to be no different But there is a secret inside DPO DPO means how many days does a company pay their suppliers? Simply put, you go to the supplier to order How many days after that you pay the order? BYD DPO is 166 days Tesla is 73 days

The 166 days has actually exceeded a quarter. That is to say, you sell a compass, you sell a backlink to BYD. Then you have to wait for nearly half a year after the delivery to get the money. Then you may think that this has any effect? Anyway, you can get the money in the end. That's right. But doing this has two benefits for BYD. The first is that you can make the cash flow on the account look very beautiful. Let's go back to this picture.

you can see the cash flow on the BYD surface is very close to the Tesla. The reason for this is that they will always owe the supplier a price of nearly 6 months. Let's take a very simple example. Suppose BYD fixed the supply of about 100 yuan per month to a supplier. Because their DPO is 166 days, let's count 6 months.

I simply used Google Sheet to make a model of the loan money. We can see that after the first month of purchase, we owe the supplier 100 yuan. Because we don't need to pay back the money now. This 100 yuan is to be paid back after six months. That is, it will only be paid back in about July. We are in the second month. At this time, we owe another 100 yuan.

The same 100 yuan is also to be paid back after six months So the money we owe each month in advance has been added up It has been accumulated until the seventh month At this time, they finally have to pay off the 100 yuan of the first month So they owe 700 yuan in July, and then subtract 100 yuan and leave 600 yuan

Then we come to the eighth month, the same is to owe more than 100 yuan Then we have to pay the second month's payment So the eighth month also owes 600 yuan Through this method, you can see that the money owed to the supplier can be kept at 600 yuan. Next, it will always be like this

In other words, BYD owes the supplier about 6 months of debt. And the most amazing thing is that the debt is completely without interest. This god operation is the so-called supply side finance. By extending the payment deadline for the supplier, it can make the cash flow on the account look better.

But the principle behind it is to suppress their downstream suppliers. Basically, it's like borrowing money from them for no reason. Another advantage is that supply chain finance can lend BYD free money to invest in expanding factories, which is CapEx. The automotive industry is a very capital-intensive industry. If you don't have factories,

You have no materials, no machines, you can't make money at all. Its early investment is very, very expensive. The Chinese electric car market is so twisted. All electric cars are on sale. So the way to survive in such an environment is to win and lose. First, all your competitors are all dead.

and then let you grab the market share and then say So Biadi will use this method to finance to constantly invest more factories to buy more machines and production equipment to let the cost of production continue to decline Then you say this 166 days of DPO What is the difference between the DPO of Tesla 70 days? If we put Biadi's DPO from 166 days to normalize to adjust to Tesla's same 73 days What will happen? This picture has been calculated for you

their real cash flow will become -5.2 billion US dollars. That means if Biadi loses this free financing to export oil to the market, Biadi's accumulated cash flow will become -5.2 billion US dollars. So just looking at the financial statements, it's hard to judge whether a company is really healthy.

Another obvious one is the asset tax table. We all know that if we take assets and subtract the tax, we can get the company's common equity. This is called Common Equity. Tesla's Common Equity is $7.5 billion in the first quarter of this year.

while BRD only has 3.2 billion US dollars. So, on the surface, BRD is a very profitable company, and they sell very well. But in fact, the balance of assets is not as perfect as we thought. BRD has a very high balance of assets, which is 8.2 billion US dollars.

The asset is NT$11.5 billion. So if you divide these two, their asset liability rate is up to 70%. Tesla's asset liability rate is less than 40%. The supply chain of finance is not a new thing. Many companies are using it, but the risk of excessive use is still high.

If a company's asset debt ratio is too high, it will be easier to have this stormy time Especially as long as the electric car market in China begins to become weak, the demand begins to slow down This may cause this energy surplus When electric cars start to sell out

These big companies will start to lose money and sell Then this DPO may be longer The worst case scenario is that the capital chain is broken Can't afford this kind of money, eventually bankrupt This is why many people take the Henda that broke out in the past To compare with the current BRD Because the Henda of the year also used a similar method to finance Then crazy buying a house, expanding Finally covered a pile of useless things, things that no one wants to buy Then the capital chain was broken, and finally the bankruptcy was closed

Maybe this is why Buffett's company started to cut down on BYD. Maybe they also started to see that this company has a high risk of debt. Today I'm going to share with you the purpose of this. It's not to say that BYD is the next HENDA. I think in comparison, BYD and HENDA's finance is completely incomparable. Their financial situation is very, very healthy.

BYD is still far from this I don't think BYD has any risk of a mine explosion at the moment It's just that if we put BRD and Tesla in front of the comparison Just look at the revenue on the surface, their profit margin, how many cars they sell, their market share It's harder to see why Tesla's financial situation is healthier than BRD Although their money doesn't make as much as BRD, the cars don't sell as well as BRD

but the debt ratio is much lower than that of BRD and the cash flow is much better than that of BRD I think this is the culture of these two companies Tesla is a company that has experienced bankruptcy For Iran, it cares more about the security of the company

They want to invest their resources in higher-margin product development, such as AI, services, and software. For BRD, they are a traditional car manufacturing company. They want to use this more aggressive cash flow management strategy to kill all their competitors and expose them. Take the share of the market and the share of the market.

BYD is the world's largest car manufacturer, so their suppliers basically rely on them to eat. So BYD can continue to expand from their side to continue to expand, and no one will have any opinions. Then through this supply chain finance, it seems that the cash flow part looks good. But it doesn't look so good on the surface.

Also, Tesla will start its unmanned car service in a few days. I think this is the time when the real cash flow begins to explode. I will make a video to share with you the cash flow of Tesla and their stock. If we count the development of the robot taxi business So if you don't want to miss it, remember to subscribe to my channel. Okay, that's about it for today's video. If you like it, remember to give me a thumbs up. Don't miss the Summer Sales of Seeking Alpha I will put the link in the information column below the video. See you next time.