Faut-il remplacer son ETF Monde ?
You may have a global ETF in your
portfolio, whether in a PEA, a
securities account or a
life insurance policy. And it's true that on
social media, it's by far the
most recommended stock market investment. And that's
normal in the end, since with this
ETF you have a single fund but in that
fund you have access to 1300 companies
in 23 developed countries. So it
really is the epitome of simplicity for
investing in the stock market. In addition, you
are super diverse. So there you have it, you just need to
invest the
amount you want every month in a
global ETF type ETF and then we won't talk about it anymore. But
if you have this famous global ETF, I
'm sure you've already asked yourself the
question, is it really the
best solution? Because when you
look at its composition, you quickly
realize that ultimately this global ETF
is mostly made up of US stocks. We have 73%
American shares, about 15
% European, a little over 5% Japanese
and then it spreads out a bit with some
Canada, some Australia and so on
and then no emerging markets.
So naturally, we avoid trying to
say to ourselves, "Hey, couldn't I
make my own little recipe, my own little
homemade mix, always using
ETFs, for example, very simply with
an SP500 ETF for the United States and a
Europe ETF for Europe." It could
be stock, MSI Europe, it doesn't matter. And
then, as an option, I can also include
a small emerging market ETF. It's true
that on paper, it's quite clever;
firstly, it's more flexible, it's
potentially a little cheaper in
terms of costs, and above all, we have
the impression of regaining control.
But you'll see that when we do
the math, it's not just "Oh look,
I ended up rebuilding pretty much
the same thing, even with lower fees
, because sometimes we think we're
optimizing our portfolio, but in
reality we're completely changing its
composition." Okay now, to
make this a little bit concrete, I'm going to say to myself,
here's how to do it if I have
€1000 to invest in a PEA to invest
worldwide. The first option, as we've already
discussed, is that famous global ETF.
For the example, I used the TF Amundi
PEA world. The ticker is DCAM and at the
time I am preparing this video, the
share is worth €6. So with €1000 I can
buy 166 shares. 166 shares at €6 each
makes €996 invested. So I have
about €4 in cash left. But given that the
price of this ETF is quite low,
it's convenient, right? Almost everything is
invested. And in concrete terms today
with the current weights of this MSI
world index, but at €996 they will look roughly like
this. €724 from
US shares, €154 from Europe in the
broadest sense, €56 from Japan, €34 from Canada,
€16 from Australia and then it's
really sprinkled out in Hong Kong,
Singapore, Israel, New Zealand and
then other developed
but much smaller countries. So
when you buy a Mond ETF, as I've
already said, you are mainly buying
United States. I think it's not a
surprise to you, we hear about it
regularly, it doesn't just make people
talk, it makes people scared and so on.
But what may
surprise you a little more is that
this American dominance hasn't
always been so strong. And even going back a long way
, if I go back to 2000, we
had about 53% American shares
in the MSI world. And if I go back to
1988, it was more like 32%.
You see the evolution, it's
quite remarkable, isn't it? 32%, 53%, 73%,
it really makes you wonder where
it's going to stop. So buying
developed markets today means
accepting a large weighting on the
United States. We've already talked about it, it's
not necessarily a problem but you need to
know about it, you need to be aware of it. And
since there is no emerging market in
a global ETF, we quickly tend to
summarize that the
simplest composition to summarize is United
States plus Europe. But that's a
bit too simplistic because in the end
you also buy lots of
tiny bricks that are often forgotten.
So, there's Japan, there's Canada, there's
Australia, uh, there's Switzerland
and the United Kingdom, I want to get out
of the Eurozone a little bit. And these
little bricks, they are ultimately
not insignificant. So yes, the amount
isn't huge, it's not something that
will completely change your
portfolio, but ultimately it's still
good for you to diversify.
Now, if I move away from the countries a bit
to get down to the level of
companies, but 996 € they are
invested in roughly 57 € of Nvidia,
51 € of Apple, 41 € of Alphabet, 34 € of
Microsoft, 27 € of Amazon. So
unsurprisingly, we mostly buy
American champions. But we must also not
forget that we have this long
international network of more than 1000
companies. Now, the second option is that
instead of
buying a global ETF, I'll
rebuild it myself. So I'm going to
use an SP500 ETF as an example in
the video. I'm going to take the PSP5 ticker
and then for Europe, I'm going to take
an MSI Europe ETF and the ticker for
the example is PCEU. With
current prices, I can buy 12 shares of
SP500 which will cost me approximately €686. I
can buy h shares of the TF MSI
Europe, which makes €307 invested in
the ob. So in total, I invested €993.
So, I end up with approximately 69%
American stocks and 31%
European stocks. So, on paper, it's
quite clean. But do I
really have the same thing as my Mond ETF
? Well, I think you guessed it,
not at all, because in my
home portfolio I have roughly the
same proportion of US and I aimed
like that, but I have much more
Europe. Why do I have so much more
of Europe? because I ultimately have
zero on Japan, I have zero on
Canada, zero on Australia, zero on
Hong Kong and so on and €0 on
emerging markets. But that's already the
case for the global ETF. So we see him
having an SP500 ETF plus a European ETF, that's
not at all the same as having a global ETF.
That's really just an approximation. And
this approximation is not neutral
because what it says is "I keep
the United States but I
ultimately replace Japan, Canada, Australia and
then the rest of the developed world with
more Europe." So it might be a
good choice, but in any case, it's a
choice. Now, if I look at
the biggest companies, in reality
it doesn't change the
portfolio much, or rather the top of the
portfolio, since I end up
with roughly €57 from Nvidia, €49
from Apple, and so on. So, for the
largest American stocks, I am
ultimately very close to the global ETF. That
's not the real difference. The
real difference, as I was saying, is that I have
much more of Europe. So if
I go down a little bit in the
ranking, I find myself, for example,
with €15 in ASML versus €7 in the OTF
world. I end up with €7 from HSBC
compared to €4 in the rest of the world and so on.
So I pre-decline but basically I
double almost all my
European positions and above all, this is my
important point, I tend
to forget certain areas of the MSI world,
notably, as I said, Japan, Canada,
Australia, so obviously we can be
very comfortable with this approximation,
saying that the big
American and European companies sell
all over the world. Yes Apple sells in
Japan, yes LVMH sells in China, Microsoft
sells everywhere and so on, but despite all that, I no longer have
Toyota, I no longer have Sony, I no longer have
Shopify, I no longer have Royal Bank of
Canada. So individually, these are
tiny lines, but
collectively, they represent about
10% of our world, and especially this 10%
which helps to diversify because
Canada is not the United States even
if it is very close, and then Japan
remains an economy that is really
apart. So, a quick aside since
this video is sponsored by my
partner Saxobank. You know that at
Saxo, you can open or transfer
a PEA, but also a securities account or
even a company account. You have access
to more than 50 markets, that is to say 23000
shares, 7000 ETFs, more than 5000
bonds. So whether you wanted to keep it
very simple with a global ETF or
you wanted to build a
slightly more personalized portfolio,
you have access to a very
wide universe. Another point I like is that Saxo
offers two platforms. You have Saxo
Investor, which is a very
intuitive and simple platform, and then you have
Saxo Trader Go, which is much more
complete if you want to go further.
And right now, with my link in the
description, Saxo is offering €500 in
brokerage fees waived for 3 months for
opening or transferring an account.
So let's get back to our TF portfolio.
An interesting point is that neither of the
two current portfolios has an
emerging market component. And yet we are still in a
world where South Korea, Taiwan and
obviously China are still classified
as emerging markets. What does that mean
? That means we don't have Samsung,
we don't have TSMC. So the foundry that
makes most of the semiconductors
in the world, we obviously don't have
Tencent, Alibaba and no big
Indian companies. And that's
probably the biggest advantage of the
home TF. That is to say, from the
moment we say to ourselves, well, I'm going to make
my own portfolio and I don't want to stick
to a global ETF, I
can choose to have a little more or
less of the United States, more or less
of Europe, and obviously that famous
emerging market pocket. But before we get to
that, we're going to try to better replicate the
TF world because we've seen that the
SP500 and Europe version is simple
but it forgets quite a few countries and in
particular the very country or rather
geographical area which is Japan. And
Japan is a good
diversification option. This is very
different from previous economies. So what we
can do is keep an
SP500 ETF, keep an MSI world ETF and
then add a Japanese ETF. So for
today's example, I took an
Amundi PEA Japan Top ETF. The ticker
is PTPE. And seeing the number of
parks I can buy, I end up
with €971 invested, which is
roughly 76% from the United States, 16%
from Europe and 8% from Japan. So here we
are already a little closer to
TF worldwide, but we can see that it's not
perfect. We got Japan back but we
still don't have Canada, Australia,
Hong Kong and so on. And then we see
that, inevitably, depending on the
ETF prices, we cannot replicate
exactly, for example, 72% of the
United States. Now we can
expand further and make a version 3. This
time, we will add an Amundi
PEA Asia Pacific ex Japan ETF. The ticker
is PEJ. We end up with €988
invested. We are at 69% United States, 16%
Europe, 4% Japan and 11%
Asia-Pacific excluding Japan. Here, we
begin to see that we are diversifying quite a bit
. So, we're not really replicating the
MSI world anymore. For what ? Because the
brick we have just added at the moment
, that is to say Asia-Pacific,
excluding Japan, also includes
emerging countries. So, we end up with
Taiwan, Korea, China, India, and so on.
We can see that the choice quickly becomes
endless. We start thinking, "Well,
S&P 500 plus Europe, yes, but
Japan is missing. Yes, but part
of Asia is missing. Oh, well, I've added
emerging markets. Then, I
added only
Asian emerging markets, but why not
emerging markets in a broader sense?"
And so, when we try to rebuild
like that with a global ETF, very quickly, the more
layers we add, the more complexity we add,
and ultimately we lose
the main initial advantage of global ETFs,
which was that it's simple: you have
a single line item, and that's it, you don't have to
bother with anything. So, for me, when
we start asking ourselves the question, "Do
I keep it simple with
a global ETF, or do I create my
own ETF portfolio?" For me, there are
three things to consider. The
first question is really this
question of simplicity. Do I
just want to invest all the Months of
automatic adjustments, just one line? Well,
the TFON, it's true, it has a
huge advantage. We place our
regular order, there's no rebalancing, and
so on. It's really the solution. There you have it
, it's
absolute simplicity. We also don't have to
wonder, "Are the US
too expensive? Will Europe
catch up? Should I
allocate that famous 5% to Japan in my portfolio, or should
I stay at 0%?" Now,
it's true that a global TF is less
intellectually stimulating, especially if
you're interested in the stock market. And since
you watch my videos, I know
you're interested in the stock market. So, there's
always that slightly
frustrating aspect of having a global ETF. But you
have to keep one thing in mind:
having a simple stock market strategy
that you stick to for 20 years without
questioning it is much better than a
strategy that's supposedly more optimized on paper.
You'll make changes every
6 months and then you
might give up because it's
too complicated. Maybe you'll
lose confidence in what you're
doing. You'll doubt yourself at some point;
for example, you've added juice to the
bridge, and you'll say, "Did I do the right thing
or not?" Did I miss the
emerging market positions or not? So
, the first question is
simplicity. The second question is, do I have
a problem with the
weightings? Am I comfortable
with 73% of the
US, 73% of the dollars?
Because ultimately, the best
question to avoid settling for just one
global TF is this: whether we
think there's too much or too little US
, too much or too little
Europe, Japan, Asia, and so on. And
naturally, if you have a problem with
the weightings of your global TF
today, that can be a good
reason to have your own
TF portfolio. But let's be clear, you're
voluntarily deciding to deviate
from the market. It's not a
neutral optimization; it's truly a
geographical choice, a strategic choice.
You shouldn't have regrets. You shouldn't
reduce the US to 50% and then
turn around two years later and say, well,
I missed the boat, and so on. And then the
third question, an obvious one,
is: do I want
emerging markets? And here you have to be careful
because this notion of an emerging market has
changed a lot in the minds of
investors. When I
started investing, you know, I
'm an old-timer, so I was in the late
90s, early 2000s,
emerging markets were really just a collection of
small developing economies.
That's it, it was risky, it was unstable,
it was a bit of an exception, but China
was small, everything was small in fact, it was
Vietnam, Brazil, and
so on. Whereas today, it's
much more complicated because not
having emerging markets is a real
choice. It's not just that I'm depriving myself of a
few small, exotic markets; we're
also depriving ourselves of some of the
biggest economies on the planet. We're
depriving ourselves of China, we're depriving ourselves From India, and what
I find even worse,
in quotes, is Taiwan and
South Korea. We're depriving ourselves of huge companies. I was
talking about TSMC, which is, after all,
the leading foundry in the
semiconductor world, a sector that's
booming right now. We're depriving ourselves of
companies like Samsung. So it's
really a choice. And what you have to
understand is that this "developed"
or "emerging" category is solely the choice
of an index issuer—well, not an
issuer, sorry, an index creator
like MSI. They don't consider whether it's
a rich country or not.
What they look at is the
size of the stock market, its
liquidity, the currency, and how
accessible the market is. Then there are
very technical things like
settlement, delivery of securities, and
so on. If you want a
truly broader index that will
include emerging countries, that exists.
It exists. We no longer talk about global ETFs, we
often talk about ACWI ETFs, which stands for All
Countries World Index. These are
indices that
combine developed and
emerging countries. They include all
the issuers, all the major ones. So
you'll find them at Vanguard and
Amundi. And it changes things quite a bit
. For example, if I look at
the top holdings of this
ACWI index, we find
TSMC, the famous
semiconductor foundry, in the 7th position in the
portfolio. And globally, the
United States is down 63%. So we
realize that there's a real
advantage to this
global ETF. The problem is that, to
my knowledge at least, it doesn't exist
in PEA accounts and it's even quite rare to
find it in life insurance policies. So that's why we're somewhat
forced to either accept the The drawbacks of a
global ETF are,
for example, having to create your own by adding a
separate component. You could take
an emerging market ETFPA, for instance. But you
see, with all the questions
we've been asking ourselves since the beginning, we
realize that every time we
delve a little deeper into the concept
of passive management, it becomes more
nuanced. In fact, we're always making
choices. Even a global ETF is
a choice in itself. It's a choice of market
capitalization weighting. It's the
choice to have a large US portfolio, and
as I said, it's primarily the
choice to exclude emerging markets.
Incidentally, I don't know if you've seen,
but a few days ago, Amundi
launched a GDP-weighted ETF, and that
completely changes the weightings.
The US drops
to 31%, China rises to 17%,
Germany and Japan, for example, are
next at around 4%, and after that...
would have been spread much more widely
among the other economies, and we even have
a total of 4,200 companies. But be
careful, it's not a solution to everything.
And besides, I'm very wary
of this notion of
GDP weighting because the philosophy
is completely different. But, uh, that's
not really the purpose of this video.
Maybe I'll make a video dedicated
to this GDP-weighted ETF. When
you invest in ETFs, you have to be
aware that absolute passive management doesn't
really exist. There's
always an initial decision. A
global ETF is an initial decision
with biases towards emerging markets, with whether
or not to hedge against currency fluctuations, and so on. But you have to admit
that if what you're looking for is
simplicity, if you want to do your
little monthly trading on a single stock,
then the global ETF is extremely
difficult to beat, not in terms of
performance, although yes, it's
difficult to beat in terms of
performance, but especially in terms of
simplicity. And It's not that it's
perfect, but above all it prevents you from asking yourself a
lot of questions every
month. It prevents you from saying every month or every
two months or every day,
"Do I have too much
Europe? Don't I have too much
of the United States? Is it a
problem not to be focused on emerging markets?
Do I have too much or not? Assz Japan
and so on." And in the end, it all
depends on your philosophy. Either you
say to yourself, "I take the market as it
is with its flaws, with its
American domination, with its lack
of emerging markets and so on, and I prioritize
simplicity." Or you say to yourself, "
I want to adapt this market to my vision."
I want to lose some weight, I want to
gain some. I want to add
missing areas and so on. sometimes even
live actions saying well,
what interests me is not the
emerging trends and especially TSMC for example,
but there are really two
different philosophies. One philosophy is truly a
follower approach, and another is where you start
to inject a little conviction because
ultimately the real question is
really whether you want to buy
the market or whether you want to
choose your market? So now
tell me in the comments which
team you're on. Are you
more into global ETFs or do I prefer to create my own
strategy? I admit that I have both
approaches. That is to say, in certain
life insurance policies that I do not want to
touch. I'm going to have global ETFs and that's all
.
[grunt]
And uh in other portfolios, I
'll have a mix of TF SP500 Europe
emerging and so on, plus obviously
direct shares, but that's
another story. That's all for
today. Don't forget that if you
listen to me on podcast, I'm always
very open to notes on Apple
Podcasts, Spotify and so on, on
YouTube, you know, it's my
historical platform, so you know that I really like
likes, comments
too and then don't hesitate to
subscribe, it doesn't make you receive
all the videos. For that, you have to
activate the little bell, but you
know the story of knowing how to
see all this feedback from
my audience, that's what motivates me to
try to keep up the pace which is not
always easy, I won't hide it from you,
knowing that I do everything myself, I
am really all alone from the writing,
the script, to the thumbnail, to the editing and
everything. So it's still quite a lot of
work, but it continues to
fascinate me. So, getting your
feedback, especially in the comments,
is always really great for me. Okay
, see you soon.
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