中國迎來新牛市？還是一波新災難？

Hello everyone, I'm Terry. Today's video is about whether you can buy Chinese stocks. If you've been following the global economy, Chinese stock market, and Chinese news, you should know that Chinese stock market, A-share, has gone crazy. Chinese companies' stocks are also called Chinese stock market and A-share.

中概股指的是那些在海外市場上市的中國公司。 比如說像是在香港的證券交易所或是美國的納斯達克。 那A股指的是在中國內地交易所上市的公司。 也就是在上海深圳交易所掛牌用人民幣去交易的那些公司。 那在影片開始之前如果你人在美國還沒有用過MUUMU的話

Don't miss the last 8.1% cash interest before the year-end. Take this chance to get cash interest And now if you buy $1,000 in cash, they will also give you 15 stocks Basically, it's free to send you money to use their app I personally think this is a good chance to send money If you have SSN in the United States, don't miss it And if you are in Canada or Australia There will also be local credit card discounts Specific activity methods and discounts I will put in the information column below the video

Before we see if we can buy it, we need to understand what caused the recent rise in Chinese stock market violence. First of all, the Chinese People's Bank announced on the 20th of last month that it will provide 1 trillion RMB liquidity for the market. This 1 trillion RMB liquidity will be used by banks to lend money to enterprises and ordinary people to promote this low-end economy. I have mentioned in the video before

China has been experiencing a complete opposite of the US after the end of the pandemic. The meaning of "complete opposite" is that no one is willing to consume. Without consumption, there will be no economic activity. So the liquidity of RMB is like a big fish in the water of a dry land.

In addition, they have lowered the return on interest rate by 0.2% in the last 7 days. This 7-day return on interest rate drop means that the cost of borrowing money from banks and central banks has dropped significantly. This means that these commercial banks have more funds and liquidity to use to put in loans. And another policy will reduce the current loan rate by 0.5%.

Although this 0.5% sounds like not much, but you have to think that this is the loan that all Chinese people have. And this is not over yet. In addition, they also provide a 5 trillion RMB exchange convenience tool that can allow securities, funds and insurance companies to put their funds into the stock market through asset suppression. In addition, a low interest rate loan of 3 trillion RMB is also being promoted, so that companies can start to buy back their own stocks.

What does this series of financial policies mean? Basically, it means that it's time for China to rise. Since the U.S. could rely on printing money and banknotes at that time, we can do it too. After the news came out last month, the market rose in a few days.

Let's take a look at the Hengsheng index of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. It rose by 35% in just a few days. The SSE index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange rose by 22%. The Chenfeng index of Shenzhen rose by 25% in just a few days. For investors, does this violent rebound mean that the stock market is going back to normal? Or is it just another short-term rebound?

China suddenly began to control and sanction Chinese tech companies.

especially those financial-related tech companies, various anti-contradictory investigations. The most famous one at that time was the IPO of Ant Financial. The IPO was stopped directly. Then Ali was punished by China for more than 1.8 billion yuan, and Ma Yun disappeared. And not only Ali, but also Tencent, the head of the Chinese tech industry, was also investigated by anti-contradictory. At that time, Tencent's stock was nearly $100 at its highest. After that dark period, it fell to $25 at the lowest.

This is actually not that scary because Meta has also fallen from 380 to 90 and finally rose back up.

But the middle-sized stocks are not the same as US stocks. Let's take a look at the S&P500 and Hengsheng index of US stocks. From 1987 to the current trend, US stocks have been going up straight after the 2008 financial tsunami. And there is no soft trend at all. Even if there are some big bids later, such as COVID and the increase in the week, they are all just short bids. Then continue to create new highs.

while the HSI in HK is very unstable. The HSI has been rising for the past few days at 35%. If we look at the timeline, the last time there was a similar rise was in 2022. That time was when COVID was almost over. Everyone thought the market was going to turn better, so there was a wave of a 50% increase.

The last time was in September 2020. At that time, the Chinese government also provided some liquidity to the market, and then lowered interest rates and the ratio of bank deposits. But it just went up and then went down and caused a deeper downfall. Let's take a look at the P/E of Hong Kong's Hengsheng Index. P/E is used to measure the stock price of a company.

The current P/E market share is around 13.2% According to the history, the highest P/E in 2021 was 17.6% and the highest in 2018 was around this figure. The highest P/E in the past few times was around 20%. So today's P/E is not too high or too low. It should be a normal P/E.

Let's take a look at the P/E of Shanghai Stock Exchange The P/E of Shanghai Stock Exchange is now around 14.24 It's actually a new high in the past two years If we look back, it was 18 when it was the highest at the end of 2021

And in 2018, it was the highest at around $19.20. So according to these two P1s, in fact, the middle-sized stocks, A stocks, are not expensive, but not cheap. The current price is probably a more reasonable valuation. Then let's take a look at the comparison between CSI 300 index and EPS. What is CSI 300? CSI 300 refers to the top 300 companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen. It's actually a bit like the US S&P 500.

The CSI 300 can represent the entire A-currency market. The other line of this chart is the estimated APS. The market is expected to fall by 11.69%. That means the analysts are not optimistic about the growth of the A-currency in the next year.

They think that the EPS will be a negative growth. Instead, the index is now pointing up straight because of the big water signal. So this is also a risk hint. Here I tell you that the basic face of the market is not looked at in the next 12 months.

but the price of the stock market is constantly rising. So if you want to bet on the trend of violence to continue to rise, it's not that you can't. But you have to measure the risk yourself. China's stock market has been in a very low trend for the past three years. Because it has broken the trend of the overall rise in the past 30 years. Usually this happens, it means that a country's economy is falling.

China's economy and stock market have been maintained and adjusted by the central government for a long time.

I'm not saying that's not good. China has 1.4 billion people. Maybe these controls are necessary. But as an investor, if you want to invest in Chinese stocks, the biggest risk is that there are these uncontrollable factors that you can't predict. Although China's current policy is to promote economic development and open up this liquidity, no one knows how long this policy can last. Unlike the US Fed, their behavior is relatively simpler, easier to understand and predict.

In fact, the function of the United Nations is very simple. It is to promote economic development through this monetary policy. Or to step on a brake in a hot situation But the administrative orders of China are a bit like a decree. It may be because a company is too powerful or threatens some political interests. Or for some reason offended some people After this decree is made, it is possible to directly sentence this company to death. No matter how big you are, whether you are Tencent or Ali, you have to die if you want to die.

Of course, I'm exaggerating, but I'm saying it in a way that you can understand. Unlike the US economy and policy, companies are in charge of it. Unlike China, the US is actually influenced by the government. The US politicians are the ones who donate money to these companies. Finally, make these decisions that are beneficial to the business. In the US, the influence of companies like Google, Microsoft, and Meta are the ones that really lead the US to progress.

而不是政府在帶著他們走 你覺得拜登一個失智的老人 為什麼可以把美國的經濟帶得這麼好 其實說白了就是錢說了算 那中國的政治呢 說白了就是黨說了算 所以說當我在2021年的時候 意識到這一點之後呢 我就把我說的阿里啊 騰訊這些中概股給清空了 但是呢也不代表說 這次的漲幅呢就沒有意義

It is likely to open the next big bull market in Chinese stock market. It is likely that this year's Chinese stock market has reached its lowest point. I think this will depend on the next policy. If China's currency policy is still in a stable and water-free mode, and the state of the open and continuous economic growth continues for a few years, it is likely that we will see the Hengsheng index and the Shenzhen index return to their previous high points. Even continue to create new highs, open a big bull market and knock out S&P500.

As an investor, you have to decide whether you want to take the risk of political interference If you think it's OK, you can take the risk and you are optimistic about the future of China's economic development And we just saw the PE ratio is OK If you want to hold for a long time or do some short-term operations, you can do it after the PE is up. In fact, companies like Ali and Tencent are very good and make a lot of money The company itself has no big problem

问题就在政治风险上面的不确定性 那如果你想要有一个平台 可以同时让你投资 中概股 A股 港股 美股的话 我会建议你可以去用用看MUUMU 尤其是假如你人在美国 加拿大或是澳洲 那MUUMU呢 其实不是一家小公司

The parent company behind it is listed on the US NASDAQ with a value of $1.8 billion. And the US account has SIPC and FDIC federal insurance. The Canadian user has CIPF. Anyway, the insurance should be the same as other local exchanges. I think Moomoo did a good job. In addition to being able to trade with stocks from all over the world, the information UI provided by its chart is really good.

In the mobile app, for example, we look at this Tencent stock You can see the movement of the institution, the distribution of funds, the flow of funds, the number of empty tanks, the rating of analysts In addition, it is here in the company that you can also see the main business scope, financial predictions and some indicators And the new customer benefits in the United States should be the only one of all the stockholders to give 8.1% cash interest And if you have a $1,000 deposit, they will give you 15 shares of the stock

I got 15 shares from my friends and they all costed me $100 I think I can get a high interest rate before the fall It's like free money, why not? For Canadian users, it's a little different They are getting $2000 cash and $200 stock For Australian users, they are getting 10 shares and 6.8% interest rate and $4000 cash

I will put the link in the description box below. If you are interested, you can check it out. Of course, if you are in Taiwan, I would recommend using IB to win a certificate. Because IB, in addition to the 4.3% cash interest, the transaction fee is basically low and can be ignored. I will also put my IB exclusive link in the description box below. Okay, finally, let me share my own opinion. Because my own investment philosophy is not to gamble.

I don't want to bet on the future that I can't see or the uncertainty that I can't grasp. So I don't have any middle-sized or A-sized stocks at the moment. Most of my investments are still in US stocks. Because I need to sleep well at night. Although I know that US stocks will also have a lot of fluctuations. But according to the data from the past 90 years, the annual return rate per year is 10%.

So I know that as long as I continue to hold DCA, long-term holding high-quality companies' stocks, I will not lose money. Of course, there is nothing in this world that is certain. Okay, that's it for today's video. If you think it's helpful to you, remember to give me a thumbs up. You are also welcome to leave a comment below the video and share your thoughts with everyone. Do you think Chinese stocks are at the bottom? Do you think it's time to start the layout? See you next time.