當個有錢的工程師｜掌握未來趨勢

Hello everyone, I'm Terry. I haven't talked about TAG for a while. The channel HackBitTerry is definitely not an investment channel, nor a crypto channel, nor a love channel. I've been reading the comments, and some netizens don't understand why I, as a software engineer, talk about investment and financial topics. In fact, the entire technology industry has a very big relationship with the economic cycle and trend. If you still think that software engineers in 2022 only need coding or how to design system design systems, then you are too backward.

Why is the relationship between software engineers and the big economy? The main reason is that we have experienced a rapid growth in the technology industry in the past 20 years. Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, these companies have grown rapidly like a drug in the past 20 years.

It's directly beyond the tech companies that were slowly falling after the dotcoms and internet were blown up like Cisco, HP, Yahoo and IBM. These fan companies have driven the development of web 2.0 and cloud technology. It has reached its peak in the past 20 years.

Because of these companies, we have these unique beasts today, such as Netflix, Uber, and Airbnb. In the past, if you want to start a business as a developer, you may need to build a server and database yourself. You also need to know how to manage and maintain these servers. There are also various security firewalls that you may need your development team to complete yourself. Now, as long as there is an AWS or Azure account, you can get everything done. If I want to develop a new software today, basically all the settings can be completed on the cloud.

As long as I have a computer and a network, I can basically open a technology company. The future is the same. Cloud services will only become cheaper and cheaper. There will be no companies that will need to build their own servers in the future. Unless it's a very large institution, they need to ensure the safety of the highest data. This is an exception. Under such circumstances, these technology giants are in the past 20 years. Basically, as long as you join FAN without thinking, you will basically double in age in three or five years. Because usually FAN offers four years of service.

These four years of stock will usually be determined by the current stock price when it is invested. How many stocks can you get every year? So generally, stocks like Google, in the past 20 years, the average annual growth rate of the company is 25-30%. Basically, after you enter the company for three years, your RSU will double. This is not included in the annual refresh. The company will give you more RSU and the part of the high-end development.

You go from L3 to L4, the company will give you more RSU every year in the next four years. So everyone has been very happy in the past 20 years. We used to say at school that as long as you go to Google, your life will be set. You won't be too bad in your life. Maybe you can't make tens of millions, but you can retire early and have two houses in California. It's still a pretty normal basic life configuration.

Until today, our dreams are shattered. If you look at Fendt's stock market, Google fell from almost 150 from the highest point to 100 in a short period of time. Amazon also fell from 180 to only half now. Facebook really doesn't want to say that it has become a monk. From 380 to 120. Let alone those small companies that have not made money from IPOs, a bunch of companies' market value has risen by 90% in a year. So in fact, the technology industry has a very big relationship with the entire macroeconomic environment.

We are basically the same as those in Wall Street investment banks. They invest in funds. How to allocate assets to achieve the maximum benefit? Then we invest in time. Time can be directly converted into money. Everyone's time and the value of the company are different. But in the end, it can be bright. If you work in a North American technology company, Basically, half of your salary is used to convert your time into RSU. Pay you in the way of stock. As long as this company is going up for a long time,

your investment in time will basically make money. So which company you enter at which time can completely change your total salary in two or three years. For example, if you entered Meta on September 10 last year, your RSU will probably be calculated at the price of $3600-$380. For a 15-year-old engineer, an average of $200,000 per year RSU and then calculate it at $360, then you can get $555 per year every four years.

If you are in the year of November 4th, the stock price of NT$90 will be 2222 stocks per year, which is basically four times. If the stock price of Meta goes up to NT$360 after four years, the RSU of the person who entered last year will still be NT$200,000 per year, plus the total of NT$400,000. But if you are late for the year of entry today, the RSU of this person will become NT$800,000 per year, plus the total of NT$1,000,000.

So in fact, being a software engineer is more like investing in stocks than any other industry. I think it's even more relevant than those Wall Street analysts. Wall Street analysts' salaries are basically bonus given by the company's performance. It's all cash. It won't affect your next four years' total salary because you entered the company a year ago or a year later. So in terms of the current economic situation,

The whole market has squeezed out a lot of water during the previous pandemic Of course, no one knows when it will fall This is not an investment suggestion But if you want to jump to the bottom now It's a good opportunity If you look at this picture of Google stock market We have a long way to go for 20 years Maybe the bottom is not long after If you are in position at this time, you will definitely be a year ago The salary of the company in position has to have more room for improvement If you know how to read some basic financial reports and asset balance sheets

you can understand more about the upside of this company. Although no one can accurately predict where the bottom of the market is, like this American biotechnology company called Fortress, Wall Street gave them a market cap of $70 million today, which is about $70 million.

Market cap is the market value of a company How much is the market value of a company in the public market? Let's look at the asset debt table they announced in September this year The cash is 210 million The total assets are 323 million The total debt is 222 million So the asset cut off debt is about 100 million And now Wall Street gives them a valuation of 70 million It means that this company's stock has sold too much

Maybe you can get a few years of RSI and you can double it. Of course, this is not an investment suggestion. I didn't study this company in particular. I just put their numbers casually. For example, don't really go to the bottom. The purpose of this example is that if you know some basic principles of the economic cycle, and will look at some basic financial reports and asset balance sheets, you can immediately know more clearly what you are doing.

At least when you choose an offer, there is one more indicator to refer to. In the past 20 years, no one cares about these things because you can make money by staying in FAN for two or three years at any time. But now the era is different. FAN, which used to shine bright, will become the current version of IBM and Yahoo after the end of this economic cycle.

Let's pause for a moment. These videos are sponsored by Moomoo. If you are watching the news, recently, China, the most strict COVID-19 epidemic lockdown country in the world, has been famous for its "clean policy". A few days ago, the lockdown was announced to ease the epidemic. Hong Kong stock rose nearly 30% in the past month. As the epidemic in China gradually opens up,

and hope to see the world supply chain's recovery. This is good news for Hong Kong and China. US stocks will be affected positively. After all, Apple, Tesla, and many American tech companies' supply chain and raw materials are in China.

If you want to invest in Hong Kong or US stocks in the US, you can go to Moomoo. Moomoo is a non-profit stock trading platform under FUTU. In the US, all accounts have FDIC insurance. Trading US stocks on Moomoo is completely free. If you want to trade Hong Kong stocks, most of the stockholders in the US do not support buying Hong Kong stocks. Even if there is support, the fee is very expensive. And buying Hong Kong stocks on Moomoo

The minimum wage for each share is 18 HKD. Moomoo is the only company that supports share-free share trading. It means that you don't need to buy a whole share of shares. You can trade a share at the minimum. For example, you can buy only one share of Tencent. Then you only need 298 HKD. You don't need to spend 29,800 HKD at a time. This is more friendly for new investors. Currently, it is the 10th anniversary of Moomoo. They are now giving 20 shares to US residents who have opened a share and entered the US dollar.

What are the next trends?

After this flood, especially the war between Russia and Ukraine, I think the whole world needs to invest more research into the dependence of energy. For example, Europe stopped the supply of natural gas because of the trade war with Russia, causing the price of natural gas to rise. There is no time to supply the internal demand, so the importance of renewable energy may be more important. Especially now, I am in Seattle. In the past, the houses built here 20-30 years ago were all built on natural gas. Now the government is very concerned about renewable energy.

and slowly increase the price and tax of natural gas. Then they started to promote those separation air conditioners, separation electric water heaters. These things have become popular in Asia very early, but they are also becoming more and more popular in Europe and the United States. Now the new houses are basically equipped with these more efficient and environmentally friendly home appliances. And next year, the electric car bought in the United States will have a tax rate of up to $7,500.

The purpose of these new policies is to promote renewable energy to replace the traditional gas and natural gas, which is less environmentally friendly. If renewable energy is able to accumulate like electric vehicles, the demand for gas will be reduced, which will also reduce the future inflation pressure. So the future trend basically has renewable energy, whether it's electric vehicles or solar panels, and the future trend will be through acceleration.

能源的價錢會越來越便宜 只要哪一天我覺得能源會完全免費 因為太陽能板跟電能儲存的技術會越做越好 最後每一個人家裡都會有太陽能板

And tech companies like Google or Amazon will eventually provide solar panels for their users for free because the data of the users will become valuable. And finally, energy management will eventually become a service. And in order for big companies to become suppliers of this service, they are willing to help customers install these solar panels for free at a low cost.

I remember when I was a kid, my dad bought a Taiwan-based mobile phone, and it cost more than NT$10,000. Finally, the mobile phone became free after the trend began. You only need to sign a two-year contract with a telecommunications company to get a free mobile phone. Another future trend is AI and robots. Now Tesla's beta version of autonomous driving has slowly opened to all Tesla's car owners. You may think that to achieve complete autonomous driving, we can sleep in the car, which is still very far from us. But you have to know that the progress of AI is a vertical growth.

I remember when I was still in the beginning of the year, I saw some test videos of the Tesla Beta version on YouTube. The technology is still very immature, often misjudged or doing things that are not like people who drive cars. But now watching these videos, there is a lot of progress. FSD is getting more and more confident, and it is becoming more and more like a real-life driving operation. When he saw the other side coming, he turned to the parking lot next to it first. Let the other side of the car pass first, because the position here is narrower. Then wait for the car to pass and be safe, then he came out.

Although I am optimistic about the future of Tesla's automatic driver, there is still a long way to go. But the driver position will be replaced by AI, and the more dangerous and repetitive tasks will also be replaced by AI. These are not the plot in the sci-fi movie, it's just a matter of time.

So the future trend will definitely be to go through the police because the demand for human resources will slowly decrease. Finally, the way humans digest information is also changing slowly. In the past, everyone had to go to college or take a course to have a chance to attend. But the current trend is that short videos, Douyin, YouTube are all places where younger generations like to learn things. Even YouTube is already outdated. Online courses, boot camps, and these learning methods may become mainstream in the future.

Instead of teaching the professor to repeat the lesson one by one, it's better to record a video to let thousands of people around the world watch it. These are all the real facts of the future. Eliminate the people who need to repeat. As a software engineer, the times are different. What you need to understand is not only the skills in technology. If you know how to get information, then connect the information together, it will become knowledge. Knowledge can help you survive in this changing and fast age. So if you don't want to miss it, the first thing is to subscribe to my channel.

and please like this video because you know that liking is your best investment. We have been through so many things in the past two years. From Covid, the market was extremely panic, to extremely greedy, to war, to this year, the United Nations started to brake rapidly, and the situation was getting worse. If our economy collapses next year and it speeds up,

and then the daily rate starts to drop dramatically, QE, I won't feel any surprises. These will all happen in a very short time. But if you know how to connect information into knowledge, then you can safely move forward in the direction you want to go, do what you should do, look at the big picture, and not be scared by the noise of noise every day, or see the news again, worrying that you have chosen the wrong company or made the wrong investment.

Alright, that's it for today's video. Feel free to leave a comment below and tell me what you think. I want to know what you think the technology trend in the next 5-10 years will be. See you next time!