房地產什麼時候崩盤？

Hello everyone, I'm Terry. Today I'm going to talk about real estate investment. I know the most common topic in my videos is stocks. And sometimes I talk about cryptocurrencies. But real estate is actually a significant part of my investment portfolio. And when I first earned my first bucket of money, I also invested in real estate. First, let's talk about why real estate is so popular.

You have to know that in this world, out of the rich people who have more than $1 million of assets, 90% of them are investing in real estate. I think this data is quite credible. Because there are a lot of videos on the Internet asking how those passers-by on the road are self-reliant. In fact, most passers-by rely on real estate.

In Asia, it's similar. This time I went to Asia for a trip. I have some super rich friends who live in Singapore or Thailand. They don't do real estate development at home, they rely on the inheritance of generations to collect rent. So, like me, I don't have any background or inheritance, so I can only rely on myself to make more money, and when the interest rate is low, I can buy a house with a loan. But the loan is to use a lever to increase the funds

You bet that housing prices will be more valuable in the future. In fact, this is the biggest advantage of investing in real estate. We use the leverage to invest in a high-quality asset category. Then usually you just have to do the right thing. If you are not too bad in the past 15 years, you will not lose money. Of course, in addition to certain markets such as China, China is now experiencing a special economic cycle. Why is it generally believed that investing in real estate is a safe investment?

Everyone is willing to go up several times the bar to put the hard-earned money into it. In addition to the limited land and land, I think the most important thing is that the mobility is very low. And a large part of people buy houses, mainly for themselves. When you buy a house and you plan to live in it, you won't sell it because the house price drops. You won't see the up and down fluctuations of the house price every day. Most people may not even know how much the market value of the house they are currently living in is.

We deduct money from our salary every month and pay the mortgage. It's a normal lifestyle. Because the price of the house fluctuates, it won't affect the amount you pay the mortgage every month. So most people will hold on to it for a long time after buying a house. The result of holding on to a high-quality asset for a long time is that you can finally make money. Unlike investing in stocks, most people like to buy and sell. Then the phone may press a button above the stock and the stock can be sold directly. I'm watching the stock price rise every day. I'm operating every day. In the end, I didn't make any money.

Another advantage of investing in real estate is that you can also rent a house for a long time. There are more and more types of rents, such as long-term rents, short-term rents, and Airbnb. The house I am in Seattle now is the Airbnb long-term rent mode. So the real estate can be increased and generate income, and rent will usually follow the purchase process.

This is why people like to invest in real estate and think it is a safe and stable asset. This time I went on a trip and met my family. They said, why don't you consider investing in real estate in Taiwan? I know that Taiwan's current housing prices are very high and have been rising. Like my parents, they only buy houses if they have money. They don't want to invest in stocks or other asset types to spread the risk.

So I think Taiwan's housing prices have been supporting a long-term basic aspect Because if everyone is rich, they want to buy a house Plus the interest rate is very low Then there are so many land to build houses So in the short term, I think it should continue to rise But because I am not familiar with this market I was not in Taiwan when I was in high school Plus I think Taiwan has some geopolitical risks And some inevitable natural disaster risks So I will not consider investing in Taiwan's real estate for the time being

I am familiar with the US real estate market. According to the current trend, everyone is waiting for the US dollar to fall. The US loan interest rate is still very high. According to today's figures, the fixed interest rate for 30 years is 6.86%. Although we are clearly down compared to May this year. Because the US CPI inflation index fell by 3% in June, which is getting closer to the 2% goal of the US dollar.

So the possibility of two interest rates in the US this year is getting bigger and bigger The current market forecast is that there will be 25 points of interest rates in September this year So if you follow this script, the current US economy is on track Because inflation continues to fall, the unemployment rate is not seriously high The consumer power of the people continues to support the US economy So according to the current trend, the future housing prices should theoretically continue to rise

Because when the interest rate drops, more and more people will be able to afford a house. In the same case, the cost of building will be very high, which will stretch the price of the United States. But because the United States is very big, the price of each region is very different. Although the US house price has slightly recalibrated after the epidemic,

But overall, it is still a rising trend. Like the house I live in now, it's probably been bought for a year and a half. It's already grown a little bit. But there are still a lot of housing prices in the U.S. that are being adjusted. After the outbreak of the epidemic, more and more companies are now asking to go back to work. So some housing prices in the region are also rising at a large scale.

For example, Miami, compared to last year, has fallen by more than 10% I remember I went to Miami after the pandemic It was the hottest time in the market at that time Because many people moved to the far side of the city at that time But now they are moving back again There are also some housing prices in the US Because the whole city became more unsafe after the epidemic Like in San Francisco, there are still a lot of homeless people walking on the road And many technology companies have moved to San Francisco So there are some condos in San Francisco that have been overrun

Like this house in downtown San Francisco The previous owner bought it for $2.37 million in 2015 And then in July this year, not long ago, it was sold for $1.87 million It means that the house has been bought for almost 10 years Not only did it not make money, but it also had a 20% discount

Of course, the 3% is an exception. Let's take a look at Realtor.com. They summarized several regions. They think there will be a large-scale price adjustment in the next few months. If you are considering buying a house in the United States, you can pay a little attention. Their calculation method is to find the most number of real estate markets compared to last year. Plus the length of the sales time of the real estate market. Then compare these variables with two years ago.

And then only consider those urban areas with a number of houses higher than 2019. In 2019, it was the time when the price of houses rose after the outbreak of COVID. And then they summed up that there are three states that are currently in a more dangerous place in terms of housing prices. The first is Florida. There are four city landmarks in Florida. They are Palm Bay, Deltona,

I've never heard of these cities before. I've only heard of Orlando. Then there's Corpus Christi in Texas and McAllen. I've never heard of them either, but I know that in Texas, the epidemic is also a place where the house prices are rising very seriously.

The last one is Denver, Colorado. These are the most popular states during the pandemic. I watched a video of Grant Stephan a few days ago. He mentioned a point in the video called the 18-year property cycle. This was proposed by an English economist, Fred Harrison.

The 18-year economic cycle is a price cycle of the real estate market. This cycle means that on average, real estate will go through a complete cycle every 18 years. This cycle is divided into three stages. The first stage is called Recovery Phase. After the last stage is over, real estate begins to slowly recover. At this time, the first batch of funds that came in was the kind of "very brave" that came in at the lowest point of the market. It's called Smart Money.

Usually, investors and some institutions won't come in at this time Because the market hasn't given a clear sign of recovery The risk looks very high This is when the whole market is most pessimistic As these smart money comes in The market starts to slowly recover After the confidence is established More and more investors start to enter the market

The investment and fund started to grow slowly At this time, the first wave of market confidence began to build up It is also the first stage of this cycle Then as the market slowly became active After the first group of investors who came in started to profit The market will have a small scale of rebound This stage will have an average of 7 years The next stage is the stage of explosive growth Everyone started to buy houses

Under the low interest rate environment, all the news media began to urge people to buy houses to make money. You will also see a bunch of YouTubers on the Internet showing off to everyone that they bought a few houses. At this time, you will feel that if you do not follow the trend of buying a house, it seems to be a loss. The number of houses will start to decrease. An open house may have several offers. Even that kind of bad house will have a bunch of offers. Then you will also see a bunch of financial experts start to announce that the house price will plummet. But the house price will still continue to rise. So everyone will take these experts as a joke.

This wave of growth will last for about 7 years until the peak. After the last wave of growth, there will be a trigger point in the third stage. For example, in 2008, the third week of the bond market began to collapse. Investors who used leverage to overpass began to bankrupt. Some financial conditions were not good.

the financial crisis began. Banks began to cut their credit, and small and medium-sized enterprises were also hit. Not only the housing market, but also the world's economy was affected and affected. The third stage of the recession lasted an average of four years.

The total time of these three stages is 18 years This is the economic cycle of the 18 years of real estate proposed by Fred Harrison If we calculate according to the 18-year cycle The last time real estate broke down was in 2007 and 2008

So the next "crash" will happen in 2025 or 2026, which is next year or the year after. Of course, this is just a guess. No one can predict the future accurately. And this 18 years is just an average number. In fact, if we simply follow these three stages to look at the current US housing prices, we can also say that we are now in the early stage of the second stage. It is also possible that this cycle has been stretched a lot.

To cause a large-scale decline in real estate, a fire will be needed. The current credit system in the United States is far better than in 2008. And the current general housing market is in a situation where demand is greater than supply. Moreover, we are also expecting that the next annual rate will drop. Of course, the fall will be a good thing for housing market. Because the same house price, the amount of loan that needs to be paid every month will be much lower. So the purchasing power of the people will increase. Therefore, the demand will increase significantly. So much said, should we buy a house now?

What risk will cause the collapse of the housing market? No one knows, I don't know either But if you have considered investing in real estate or buying a house recently, I will recommend the following points The first point is that if you just bought at a high point and met the price of the house and started to go down Don't be panic and don't go to see how much your house is worth every day This drop is likely to be short-term and likely to be a large-scale rebound But if you can hold it for a long time, the final price will come back

Let's take the 18-year housing price cycle as an example. If you happen to buy at the highest point, but every time the 18-year cycle starts, the housing price will be higher than the last 18-year cycle. So as long as you have the determination to invest in the long term and continue to pay the mortgage, you can make a long-term profit. And even if the housing price falls, the rent may not fall because everyone still has to rent a house.

So as long as your loan interest rate is not very high, you still have a permanent income, you should be able to withstand this economic cycle. The second suggestion is not to over-leverage. Excessive use of the bank account, buying a house you can't afford, or suddenly having money, just buy several houses. Although you bought a house, but you are very tight every month, after paying the mortgage, there is no money left. This means that your security border is very weak.

As long as you don't know what happened, for example, you were laid off by the company or something happened at home, you may not be able to pay the loan. So if you are not sure if you can still pay the loan in the worst case, it is better to consider carefully before deciding whether to enter the market. The third is not to follow the trend of going to FOMO to grab offers. Grab offers are often in the United States. A house may have 20 offers per quarter. And some agent buyers like to say that if you don't add as much as you can, you won't have a chance to buy.

It's true that some areas in the US are really hard to find a house But you can try to avoid buying a house at this time Unless you happen to need a house now Maybe just moved to a new city And then your previous house can also be sold at a relatively higher price In this case, because of your own use needs Use one house to replace another house is relatively safer Another point you can also consider is to buy a house on a short notice

Usually, the buy-in period in the US is winter. At this time, there are fewer houses and fewer buyers. It can try to avoid the situation of buying a house in the summer. Because the buyers of real estate are very emotional at some point. When people buy a house, there may be some attachments. Plus, the agent is there to light the fire. Whether the price is reasonable or not, sometimes some people will go crazy and open a high price to grab offers. So if you choose to buy a house in winter,

to avoid mental illness. Sometimes, you can even get a discount. For example, if you are in a hurry to sell a house, you can also charge a price. If you are interested in investing in real estate, but don't want to invest a lot of money at once, I will introduce you to Lufina today. Lufina is a new company that allows users to invest in multinational real estate with small capital through Web3. Because I am interested in real estate and Web3, I flew to Hu Zhi Ming City, Vietnam this time to inspect the first real estate in Lufina.

I also talked to their co-founder and talked a lot. Lufina's goal is to find high-quality rental returns and real estate with room for growth in the world. Then, in the local registered company, cooperate with local management companies, and through NFT distribution, let investors buy all the real estate in the Lufina market. It means that now investors can invest a part of real estate at a minimum of $50. They will also get rent revenue every month. And when you want to sell,

and sell the share of the property on the Lufina marketplace. Then you must be wondering if there is really a way to protect the NFT owner from the ownership of the property? This is also the first question I asked when I met Kai. Kai is the co-founder of Lufina. Lufina has used the contract to make the NFT owner a legal property owner.

This principle is similar to the principle of "NFT owners can pursue your financial rights through contracts" Of course, it is not easy to understand this kind of "buying real assets through websites" I also interviewed Kai and asked a lot of questions when I was in Ho Chi Minh City I will share with you later Lufina can indeed solve many problems of investment real estate First of all, there is no international exchange I myself have never thought of investing in a house in Vietnam

And the investment in Vietnamese houses has many advantages, such as the law is very protective of the landlord. As long as the tenant does not pay rent, it can be legally expropriated immediately. And Hu Zhiming's land tax is also very low. The management fee of the building is also paid by the tenant. These are very different from the market in North America. In addition, Lufina has solved the legal and management problems of the international investment real estate. As an investor, as long as you focus on researching the return and growth of real estate itself,

I personally think this concept is quite innovative If you are interested, you can go and have a look I will put the link in the description box below Also, thanks to their sponsor for this video Oh, by the way, Lufina recently launched a game called Click City Through this Tap to Win game You can learn more about how Lufina works You can also pay attention to their X sound if you are interested

Alright, that's all for today's video. It's not an investment advice. I'm just sharing this information about Lufina. If you want to make any investment, you must do your own research. If you think this video is helpful, please give me a thumbs up. And please leave a comment below. What do you think of the next real estate trend? See you next time.