你真的了解風險嗎？

Hello everyone, I am Terry. Today I am going to talk about the most basic concept of investment, risk. The reason I am making this video is because many of my friends have been asking me what stocks I should buy, what investment I should buy, whether to buy a house or a fund, whether to buy stocks with high interest rates or growth-based stocks.

These are the first problems that everyone faces when they first enter the investment market. These problems eventually return to a core concept, which is risk and time cost. When we first started investing, we usually went to the bank to find a financial expert. Or you will consult a qualified financial consultant, CFP or CFA. The first thing they usually do is help you do risk assessment.

It will let you fill in a bunch of questions to understand your investment goals, your investment time, risk tolerance and risk bias. Finally, give you a suggestion of a fund or a certain financial product. I think these professional and complex risk tolerance assessment and investment financial suggestions can be understood in a simpler way. In fact, it is a game of risk and time. Because there is so much time in a person's life. If a person's life is infinite,

In the end, everyone will become a billionaire. But because life and time are limited So how do we do it in a limited life? Reasonable to do the investment strategy that suits you And this investment strategy is not unchanging Because there is a dimension I just talked about time Time will directly affect your risk tolerance ability

I want to say first, because I am not a financial expert, I also have no knowledge. So today's video is not an investment advice, just simply share my own thoughts and experiences. OK, so why is it a game of risk and limited time? If your investment year is long, for example, you just started in society or you are in your 30s,

可能還沒有成家,還沒有小孩。 那代表說你的風險承受能力呢, 會比其他人還要高。 但是要注意, 我這邊講的風險承受能力呢, 不是你可以承受一個資產歸零的能力, 而是你可以承受一個資產 它上下起伏非常大的這個能力。

Let's give an example Why do I often say in the channel? Investing in Tesla or Bitcoin is not suitable for everyone Although you have long been optimistic about the future value of Bitcoin Or the growth of Tesla's future But not everyone has time to wait for its final growth If you invest in Tesla in November 2021

If you have a long time of more than three years, the account is in debt I know that three years is a stable job for a 20-30-year-old People with income may pass it quickly But for a retired person, there may be no stable income Or there is a greater economic pressure, which may come from the family or from children It may be a very long and painful waiting time Because you may need money at a certain stage of investment If you don't have money, you can only sell assets

So it's very likely that before it has a chance to rise back When the market is extremely panic, it will sell the assets This is the most common way to cut meat Because you still have to live You can't starve to death or owe a foot rent You can't continue to invest in a risk or fluctuate such a high asset And choose not to eat And you have to think that the market mood at the moment is definitely extremely panic

A bunch of investors say on the news every day The company is about to close down, run away Okay, even if you have a very strong belief today You still have to pay rent when you should pay rent You still have to eat because you have no other income Or you have retired and you have no other cash flow Then you have to sell assets Like X has a Tesla senior and retail shareholder on it

He posted on X a few days ago that he had to sell 10% of his Tesla space because he needed to pay rent and some living expenses. Although he is very optimistic about the future of Tesla, he had to do this. He had to sell 10% of his space.

This is a typical example of a lack of risk tolerance. He didn't have time to wait for Tesla to go back to 400. Even though he knew that one day Tesla would go back to 400, even break the record. But because now he has to pay rent. And he doesn't know when he will have to pay rent. So he can only sell it at 280. So this is why high-price, fluctuating assets are not suitable for people with low risk tolerance. For example, my dad has retired. He told me before that he wanted to buy Tesla. He wants to invest in Tesla and compare.

I told him that if you take out a sum of money that you don't care about at all, and if it really goes to zero, it doesn't matter, it doesn't affect your life, we can take it to invest. The reason I say this is not because I think Bitcoin or Tesla will go to zero. I just think that the price fluctuation of this sum of money should not affect your retirement life at all.

Because if today Tesla or Bitcoin fell by 80% They may not have the time to wait for it to rise again Even if you have super strong faith Sometimes you still have to surrender to reality You don't necessarily have the time to talk to him It's not that you don't want it, it's that you don't have time Let's give another more extreme example Nvidia has been in the high point since 2021 33 yuan Less than a year The fall is more than 50%

After that, within two years, it doubled more than 10 times. Of course, at that time, investing in Nvidia was a magical operation. Whether you invest in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, it doesn't matter. What matters is that you stay in the market until now. But if we go back to 2022, at that time, the stock fell more than 50%. The market was in a panic.

If you go to the mainstream media, everyone is saying that Nvidia is not working well. You must think that you are investing in some kind of garbage. At that time, no one knew when it would grow back. Maybe one year, or maybe ten years. So for a retired person, the money he needs should not be put on Nvidia. Even if we are 100% sure that it will grow back in ten years,

But who can be 100% sure that a person can wait another 10 years and not use this money? Then you can't change all assets into cash and put them in the bank Because this way, inflation plus depreciation is the most unprofitable So your money still has to be put on some assets Then these people we call people with lower risk

It's not because they don't have the courage or conviction. Of course, conviction is also necessary. And most of them are because of uncontrollable factors, time. We all know that the long-term return rate of investment stocks is very high. Only S&P 500 can reach 10% in the past 100 years. But when you encounter a downturn in the economy, like the 2008 economic crisis, S&P 500 took a total of four years to return to its original high point. If you were at the high point at that time,

you need to wait for 4 years to recover even if you know it will come back but you don't know how much time it will take now of course, we can look back and see it's all in the past but it was extremely panic at that time feel the world is going to be destroyed just S&P500 is so boring and brainless investment will have such an experience not to mention Tesla, Nvidia, Bitcoin such high-flux assets

We see that Amazon's stock fell by 90% at the time of the 2000 dotcom bubble. After that, there was no progress for more than 10 years. The stock is completely flat. Then Cisco's stock has been at the highest point of the dotcom bubble for 25 years and has not yet returned. This is the risk of investing in each stock. First, you need to have enough conviction. This is what you can control. Plus, you need to have enough understanding of this company. This is also what you can control.

Plus you need to have enough time to make money. Time is often something you can't control. This is why my friends often ask me if there is any recommended stock or company suitable for investment. I always say to invest in VOO directly as a deposit. Because even if it is a VOO, there will be a lot of people who can't hold it when they are in trouble. Not to mention investing in individual stocks or encrypted currencies.

This is why Ray Dalio, founder of the Bridgewater Fund, will propose the Old Weather Portfolio. Old Weather Portfolio is 30% stocks, 40% long-term bonds, 15% medium-term bonds, 7.5% gold, and 7.5% general goods. The purpose of this kind of investment is that no matter what economic cycle it is, whether it is bull or bear, its purpose is to reduce the overall fluctuation to the lowest.

We can see this blue line here is Ray Dalio's old weather portfolio The red one is S&P500 During Covid, I don't know if you remember the US stock market crash collapse at that time This old weather portfolio did not cause a cliff-like crash like S&P500

Another very obvious example is when the 2008 financial tsunami hit, the red line was very, very much, and the blue line was more stable. But if we lengthen this timeline, you can see that the performance of S&P500 is definitely better than the old weather portfolio.

Because this old weather portfolio includes bonds and gold These are all used to match the trend of the stock market when the stock market is in a bearish trend But when it is in a bull market, the speed of it's rise will also be limited Because the stock only accounts for 30% So when you choose your investment combination The first thing you need to consider is Do you have more than 5 years or 10 years

If you have, then it's no problem to invest in VOO. If you have a strong belief in some companies, you are very confident, you have done your homework, then you can hold the shares of these companies alone. These are also no problem at all. But today, if your time is limited, you may need to sell assets in the middle. Then you have to consider that maybe even VOO is not suitable for you. What you need may be a more diversified investment group.

such as Ray Dalio's old weather portfolio. This scale is usually measured by the proportion of stocks. Usually, the larger the proportion of stocks in your portfolio, it means that the fluctuation will be higher. In stocks, the more diversified the index, such as S&P 500, the fluctuation will be relatively low. Then, the fluctuation of QQQ, which is very concentrated in technology stocks, will be higher.

If you have a lot of money and choose to invest in stocks, the fluctuation will be the highest. OK, let's summarize. Usually, I'm talking about the young people with the highest risk-saving ability and stable income who can continue to DCA. Because their investment time can be very long. The worst risk-saving ability is usually the one who does not have stable income and needs to rely on existing funds and assets to make a living. Because their investment time is usually very short,

and can't afford the loss of the fluctuation I know what I just said sounds like common sense, everyone should know But many people still can't figure it out now In fact, there is another investment department called high-investment, profitable investment They pursue to make dividends and eventually rely on the stock market to support the family and achieve wealth freedom I think this department is more like a middle between conservative and high fluctuation Because when the economy is in a downward trend, the fluctuation may be very big

The advantage of using stock market as a source of income is that you can have continuous income and then you can invest these income into stocks or ETFs that you own. It's like a snowball. Then when you retire, you can use this stock market as a source of income to become your retirement fund. If your portfolio is a very healthy company, you don't even have to sell any stock.

Of course, I think it's better to hold ETFs like Taiwan's 0056, 00878, etc. The United States is SCHD or VYM. Because the advantage of holding ETFs is that they usually maintain it regularly and help you move the company you are in. So you just need to continue to buy an ETF.

I personally think that high-end stocks and revenue-based investments are also quite good, suitable for all ages. Because this income, in theory, will be continuous. Although the stock may fall, it may go back, but the income will still be there. Of course, sometimes after the company performs badly, they will start to lower the stock price, plus you may encounter so-called value traps. These can be maintained by ETFs to diversify your investment as much as possible.

Another thing about revenue-based investment You have to pay attention to is that you can see the growth of SCHD It's not as good as S&P500 We can see that the growth of 0056 is slower And there are several burst on the account So usually the more shares the company gives The more the share price fluctuates And even sometimes the share price may not move much Because it's still the same high risk high return Ok, if you are interested in this kind of high-end revenue-based investment

我的長期合作夥伴 Seeking Alpha 他們在3月5號 美東的3月5號 中午12點到下午3點 有一個完全免費的股息投資講座 專門針對想要靠投資股息 來產生一個穩定被動收入的網友們

I think this lecture will be very valuable Because the stock market is a stable income that can really make you rich and free That is the so-called lie flat Then this time the lecture of Seeking Alpha is open to all premium subscribers for free Of course, if you haven't subscribed yet, you can also subscribe using my registered link You can have 7 days free trial Then during this 7-day free trial, you can participate in this lecture

And now with my link subscription Premium fee can also have a discount of 30 yuan If you feel that there is no value afterwards Then you can also cancel the subscription after 7 days Because this lecture, this live lecture It's at noon in the Middle East relatively speaking, it should be in the early morning in Taiwan If you can't participate You can also watch the recorded video after March 7th

The recorded video will also have English subtitles. I will put the registration link in the information column below the video. Ok, today's video is almost here. I hope this video will help you. Let you know more about why your risk tolerance ability depends on your investment timeline and your personal economic resistance. If you want to invest in US stocks, you can also go to the IB Intow Securities that I use every day. Whether it's the size or the customer service, I think IB is the top of the industry.

And for your asset protection, IB is also the most invested Plus cash in IB now There is a interest of 3.7% I will also put the IB link in the information section below the video See you next time