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We Built Our Own Salesforce in Months. Here's Why We're Cancelling the $600K Contract | Curative CEO

1:29:271,602 summary words · ~8 min readEnglishBy 20VC with Harry StebbingsTranscribed Jul 22, 2026
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Summary

Fred Turner details how he scaled COVID testing startup Curative to $5B in revenue before pivoting into health insurance and deploying agentic AI workflows that reduced annual SaaS spend by 80% and B2B contracting costs by over 95%. He also outlines his nuclear energy venture, Subcritical, which leverages accelerator-driven subcritical fission to bypass traditional nuclear regulatory bottlenecks and power AI compute.

The interview provides a real-world blueprint for replacing enterprise SaaS and back-office administrative labor with autonomous AI agents, while showcasing how hardware scaling constraints in diagnostics and nuclear power can be overcome via novel supply chain and technical architectures.

Section summaries

0:00-3:40

UK vs US Venture Ecosystems

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Fred Turner shares his early experience founding a startup in the UK at age 18 and struggling to raise venture capital due to institutional risk-aversion and credential bias. Upon traveling to San Francisco and being accepted into Y Combinator, he found Silicon Valley investors focused on evaluating maximum potential outcomes over a 10-year horizon. This contrast highlights why Turner relocated his business operations to the United States.

  • UK venture capital historically optimizes for mitigating downstream risk based on credentials.
  • Silicon Valley capital underwrites 10-year ceiling potential and maximum addressable scale.
  • Ambitious founders pitching non-traditional ideas require ecosystems that evaluate upside over downside.

Establishes the founder's background and offers sharp insights on structural differences in global venture capital.

3:40-13:50

From Cattle DNA to Human Diagnostics

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Turner recounts starting TL Biolabs to sequence dairy cow DNA for milk yield prediction, but pivoting to human diagnostics after realizing total addressable market constraints capped growth at ~$1.5B. The company pivoted into STD testing and sepsis diagnostic hardware, where early detection is vital because each hour of delay increases sepsis mortality by 12%. However, after a B-round strategic acquisition fell through, the company ran out of cash, forcing Turner to sell its hard-won CLIA lab license for $150,000.

  • Biological markets like cattle testing have strict TAM ceilings dictated by physical population limits.
  • Human healthcare diagnostics command substantially higher willingness to pay than agricultural testing.
  • Sepsis mortality increases by 12% for every hour treatment is delayed, demanding rapid diagnostic suspicion.

Demonstrates technical pivot execution and the harsh realities of venture startup wind-downs.

13:50-19:04

Founding Curative & Spotting COVID-19

optional

Turner founded Curative to deploy specialized clinical sepsis workflows inside community hospitals. In early 2020, a pilot hospital in Wisconsin abruptly paused all external projects to prepare for COVID-19, giving Turner an early macro indicator of the impending pandemic. Because Curative's chief scientific officer had already developed an internal COVID test for employee safety, the company quickly shifted focus to public diagnostic deployment.

  • Hospital pilot freezes in early 2020 provided an early macro signal of pandemic disruption.
  • Curative possessed a functional COVID-19 test developed by its CSO during off-hours prior to lockdowns.
  • Selling a lab license for $150k during wind-down forced Curative to acquire another lab license for $27M months later.

Provides historical background on how Curative pivoted into pandemic testing.

19:04-30:44

Scaling COVID Testing to $5B via Orthogonal Supply Chains

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Curative won its first major contract with the City of Los Angeles after a viral tweet led to direct outreach from the deputy mayor. To scale from zero to 206,000 daily tests and 7,000 employees in 9 months, Curative built an 'orthogonal supply chain', avoiding bottlenecked standard consumables like Chinese magnetic beads in favor of scalable glass filter plates and alternative swabs. The business generated $5 billion in total revenue over three years.

  • Legacy diagnostic labs optimize for marginal efficiency, preventing 10x capacity expansion during crises.
  • Orthogonal supply chains avoid competing for bottlenecked standard consumables during demand shocks.
  • Curative scaled to 206,000 daily tests and 7,000 employees within eight months of launch.

Essential operational case study on hyper-scaling logistics and supply chain architecture.

30:44-40:33

Pandemic Economics & Health Insurance Pivot

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Turner explains the volatile margin profile of pandemic testing, where surge profitability gave way to heavy fixed-cost losses during demand lulls. Anticipating the end of testing, Curative reinvested $500M of cash reserves into launching a health insurance carrier. Turner critiques US healthcare regulations, explaining how the 85% Medical Loss Ratio (MLR) rule caps profit margins and incentivizes health plans to increase total spending.

  • Diagnostic infrastructure faces massive fixed-cost burn during testing volume lulls.
  • Curative allocated $500M of testing profits to capitalize its full-stack health insurance provider.
  • ACA Medical Loss Ratio rules cap profit margins, perversely incentivizing higher aggregate healthcare spend.

Deep dive into healthcare macro-economics and regulatory incentive structures.

40:33-47:59

Internal AI Workflows & SaaS Spend Elimination

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Curative transformed its internal operations by building Claude-based autonomous agents and LLM code-generation pipelines. An internal agent reduced provider credentialing turnaround from 3 months ($50/doctor) to 12 hours ($0.20/doctor). Additionally, Curative eliminated its $600,000/year Salesforce contract by vibe-coding a custom internal CRM in two months, contributing to an overall 80% reduction in SaaS spend.

  • Claude-based agents automated physician credentialing, cutting turnaround from 3 months to 12 hours.
  • Single-use Python code generation enables seamless data ingestion without rigid ETL software.
  • Curative eliminated 80% of SaaS spend by replacing commercial vendors with vibe-coded internal tools.

Extremely actionable insights on enterprise AI agent deployment and software cost reduction.

47:59-55:53

Autonomous Contracting Agent 'Gwen' & API Scaling

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Curative developed 'Gwen', an autonomous agent that researches doctor practices, sends customized outreach emails, redlines Word documents via Python code, and executes DocuSign contracts. Gwen scaled contracting velocity from 100 contracts/week across a human team to 100 contracts/day, dropping cost per contract from $1,500 to $70. As a result of deep workflow integration, Curative's monthly Anthropic API spend expanded into millions of dollars.

  • Agent 'Gwen' handles end-to-end B2B contracting over email, including Python-based Word document redlining.
  • Relentless automated email follow-up (up to 9 touchpoints) converts B2B leads that human reps abandon.
  • Anthropic API spend scaled to millions per month as token consumption directly replaced administrative labor.

Critical analysis of B2B sales automation, contract execution, and LLM token usage elasticity.

55:53-1:13:32

Workforce Structuring, AI Supervision & Labor Shifts

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Turner outlines how AI restructures corporate headcounts toward technical deployment and high-stakes relationship management while shrinking back-office administrative roles. He highlights the emerging role of 'Agent Supervisor' to manage exception queues generated by high-volume AI agents, and predicts foundation model providers like Anthropic could achieve $10 trillion valuations as AI unlocks margin expansion across regulated legacy industries.

  • High-value human roles will concentrate in pure engineering deployment and personal relationship building.
  • 'Agent Supervisors' are needed to triage business decision exception requests generated by AI agents.
  • AI deployment will drive massive margin expansion in low-margin, highly regulated legacy industries.

Valuable discussion on enterprise workforce shifts, UBI, and macro AI economic impacts.

1:13:32-1:24:18

Subcritical Nuclear Fission for AI Datacenter Power

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Turner discusses co-founding Subcritical, a nuclear startup leveraging accelerator-driven subcritical fission to generate baseload energy for AI datacenters. Operating below criticality at a 0.97 neutron multiplication factor, the reactor requires an active particle accelerator to sustain fission; turning off the accelerator instantly stops the reaction. This inherent safety mechanism avoids runaway criticality risks and offers a accelerated regulatory pathway.

  • Subcritical reactors operate below 1.0 criticality (0.97), making physical runaway meltdowns impossible.
  • Deactivating the driving particle accelerator acts as an immediate physical kill-switch for fission.
  • Subcritical nuclear designs offer a streamlined regulatory route to deliver gigawatt-scale power for AI compute.

High-value breakdown of novel nuclear energy architectures designed for AI compute bottlenecks.

1:24:18-1:29:24

Developer Spend Scaling, European Rules & Final Advice

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In the quickfire section, Turner criticizes European regulatory culture for compounding administrative burdens without evaluating economic drag. He predicts enterprise LLM spend per developer will reach 200% to 500% of engineer salaries as single developers direct fleets of downstream coding agents. Finally, he shares how early backing from investor Josh Buckley launched his career and advises founders to synthesize diverse operational viewpoints.

  • European regulatory frameworks add administrative overhead without assessing economic competitiveness drag.
  • Developer LLM spend is projected to reach 2x-5x engineer salaries as developers become agent managers.
  • Synthesizing perspectives across science, military deployment, and software engineering reveals operational ground truth.

Concludes with commentary on regulatory friction, developer tool economics, and leadership frameworks.

Key points

  • Orthogonal Supply Chains for High-Velocity Scaling — Traditional diagnostic labs optimize for marginal efficiency and break when asked to scale capacity 10x. Curative scaled to $5B by ignoring standard lab consumables—such as Chinese magnetic beads—and engineering workflows around alternative materials like glass filter plates and non-standard sterile swabs.
  • Ephemeral Code Generation for Unstructured Data Pipeline Ingestion — Instead of using direct LLM parsing or rigid static software importers for varied B2B documents, Curative uses AI agents to dynamically generate, test, and execute single-use Python scripts that format raw files into standardized database schemas before discarding the code.
  • Replacing Legacy SaaS via Internal Agentic Workflows — Curative reduced its annual SaaS expenditure by 80%—including cancelling a $600k/year Salesforce contract—by building vibe-coded internal tools and deploying AI agents like 'Gwen' to autonomously manage credentialing, B2B sales outreach, and contract redlining.
  • Subcritical Fission Amplifiers for Inherent Nuclear Safety — Subcritical nuclear reactors operate at a neutron multiplication factor below critical (e.g., 0.97), relying on an external particle accelerator to drive fission. Deactivating the accelerator instantly stops the reaction, eliminating meltdown and criticality risks entirely.
  • US vs UK Venture Capital Allocation Mindsets — UK venture capital historically focuses on downside risk mitigation and academic credentials, whereas Silicon Valley evaluates 10-year upside potential and total addressable outcome size.
and it was like, well, what's the possibility here? What could you envision in 10 years if if everything succeeds? Fred Turner
they are built for we will get 1% extra margin by optimizing this bit of the process over here so that it is perfectly efficient and they are really good at that but if you ask them to 10x that it really doesn't work Fred Turner

AI-generated from the transcript. May contain errors.

0:00

Lockdowns had just started. Everybody

0:01

[music] was starting to freak out. There

0:03

was basically nowhere to get a test. So,

0:05

our chief scientific officer had in his

0:07

spare time developed a COVID test. I

0:09

think our peak day was 26,000 people

0:11

tested in a single day. I'm so excited

0:14

for a freaking wild story today. Fred

0:16

Turner, co-founder and CEO of Curative.

0:18

This is an English founder in the valley

0:21

who scaled a COVID testing business to

0:23

$5 billion in revenue. Then he had to

0:27

scale it all back. [music] It did not

0:29

last postcoid for obvious reasons.

0:31

Today, he turned it into a health

0:33

insurance provider that's worth $1.3

0:35

[music]

0:36

billion. And in the show, he says some

0:38

pretty wild stuff. And the company went

0:40

from about 7 to 7,000 employees in those

0:43

first 9 months. We did 2.5 million

0:44

[music] vaccinations. That was another

0:45

service we did. We also lost a ton of

0:46

money on that. That was a terrible

0:48

business. We're cutting about 80% of our

0:50

SAS spend this year. What's the single

0:52

largest contract you signed?

0:54

>> Ready to go.

0:57

>> [music]

1:07

>> Brad, I'm so excited for this. Dude, you

1:09

have the most wild story and I heard it

1:11

from Justin first uh and then from Anil.

1:14

So, thank you so much for joining me,

1:15

man.

1:15

>> Yeah, thanks for having me.

1:16

>> Now, I always find it very telling

1:18

entrepreneurs often kind of compelled

1:20

either by the fear of losing or by the

1:22

thrill of winning. If I were to ask you

1:25

which one drives you more, what would

1:27

you say it is?

1:28

>> Uh, thrill of winning. I feel like

1:30

during um certainly during co with what

1:33

some of what we built at curative, I got

1:35

kind of a taste for the the speed at

1:37

which you can move when everything is

1:39

like is behind you and all the momentum

1:40

is behind you and uh I've been chasing

1:43

that ever since.

1:44

>> I mean that is the biggest tailwind that

1:46

one could have ever expected. We're

1:48

going to get to that. You actually grew

1:50

up in the UK and then you moved to

1:52

Silicon Valley very young. 17.

1:54

>> Uh 19.

1:55

>> 19. Okay. Could you have built the

1:58

business that you did in the UK?

2:00

>> No, definitely not.

2:01

>> Why is that?

2:02

>> I just think the UK doesn't have like

2:05

some of the the kind of infrastructure

2:07

for um for startups and investing of

2:10

like that many people that have kind of

2:12

done a startup before and then are

2:14

willing to invest in the next

2:15

generation. Particularly investing in

2:16

younger people. like when I found I

2:18

tried to raise a venture round in the

2:20

UK. Um, and I couldn't even get

2:22

meetings. This was when I was like I was

2:24

18. I was in like first year of college

2:26

and I was doing this startup on the side

2:28

and I couldn't even get meetings with I

2:30

think I got like one fund to take an

2:33

associate meeting with me. [laughter]

2:36

>> Naturally, it went very far.

2:38

>> Yes. And and so it just it seemed like

2:40

people were more investing like purely

2:41

on credentials. And this was a while

2:43

ago, right? This was this was, you know,

2:44

more than 10 years ago. But it seemed

2:46

like people were investing just on, oh

2:48

well, you came out of this university.

2:49

Um, so if you, you know, you're an

2:51

undergrad, like, how could we possibly

2:53

look at this? This doesn't make any

2:54

sense. Whereas you go to Silicon Valley

2:56

and it was like, well, what's the

2:58

possibility here? What could you

2:59

envision in 10 years if if everything

3:01

succeeds? Like, how big a company could

3:03

this be? And it it just it was a very

3:05

different mindset that they were

3:07

optimizing for how to get the best

3:10

outcome rather than I always felt like

3:12

in the UK it was sort of optimizing for

3:13

like mitigating the the worst downstream

3:16

outcome.

3:17

>> Yes. How do I not get fired,

3:18

>> right?

3:19

>> Yeah, I totally get that. Um [laughter]

3:22

that's pretty funny. Um okay. And so we

3:24

decide to move to the valley. Great. Um

3:27

>> how does because we go from sepsis

3:31

detection. No. Well, cows to sepsis to

3:35

>> Can you just walk me through how we go

3:36

from cows to sepsis to co just so I

3:39

understand this?

3:40

>> Yeah. So, my first company that

3:42

>> I've never said that statement before in

3:43

a 20 VC episode, by the way.

3:45

>> There we go. It's a new a new phrase for

3:46

you. Yes. So, um I went from initially

3:50

cattle testing uh through sepsis to to

3:52

co. So it started off my first company

3:55

in the UK which was called TL Biolabs at

3:57

the time basically sequencing dairy and

4:00

beef cows to predict various traits

4:02

about the animal from an early age. So

4:04

it started off with beef you can predict

4:05

that certain cows are going to have more

4:07

musculature um from an early age and

4:10

some cows can have too much musculature

4:12

and then they have trouble giving birth

4:13

and so there's like an optimum that

4:14

you're shooting for um and I found this

4:17

like completely by chance. I won uh the

4:20

UK National Science Engineering

4:21

Competition and um like was on TV a

4:25

little bit and this farmer reached out

4:26

to me because he wanted help testing his

4:28

cows and he was sending his samples to

4:30

the Netherlands and it was taking weeks

4:32

and it was terrible. And I initially

4:34

told him like I'm not interested in

4:35

cows. I was interested in human genetics

4:37

at the time. Um like no thank you. Um

4:40

and then he kind of kept pressing and he

4:42

like sent me samples with a check

4:43

attached to the front and I was like oh

4:45

okay like this is interesting. And so I

4:48

did the first batch of samples for him

4:49

and then all of his friends started

4:51

sending me samples. And so it kind of

4:52

grew from there. And this was all still

4:54

in the north of England. I was in the

4:55

first year of of college at the time. Um

4:58

and uh we started branching out into

5:00

dairy and predicting how much milk

5:02

animals would make. And I tried to raise

5:04

uh the first venture round for the

5:06

company in the UK. Didn't get very far

5:09

and so ended up uh going to the US for

5:11

the US ACT investing conference in San

5:15

Francisco. It's my first time in the

5:16

States, never been before. Um, and I was

5:19

like my last ditch attempt to try and

5:21

raise some money. And I met a bunch of

5:23

VCs. Didn't raise any money, but I did

5:25

meet a guy who had just finished doing Y

5:28

Combinator. And he was like, "Oh, you

5:31

need to apply to YC. That's like that's

5:33

what you need to do. You need to move

5:34

the company to the US. You need to apply

5:36

to YC. Like that's the only thing you

5:38

can do here." Um, and I was like

5:40

familiar with YC uh but had never

5:42

applied.

5:42

>> What year was this? This was like the

5:45

end of 2015.

5:46

>> Okay.

5:46

>> Yeah. So, I went back to the hotel room

5:48

and it turned out like the application

5:49

deadline was 6 days away. So, I was

5:51

like, "All right, it's meant to be." So,

5:53

did the application, you know, got the

5:55

interview, came back for the interview,

5:57

uh, and then moved to to Silicon Valley

6:00

for the summer 16 batch.

6:01

>> Paul, so how was the interview? Who was

6:03

it with?

6:04

>> Tim, Jeff, and somebody else. Yeah, it

6:08

was I mean, it was all a bit of a blur.

6:09

It's very fast.

6:10

>> And then you found out you get in.

6:11

>> Yes.

6:12

>> You moved to the valley. moved to the

6:13

valley and then it was the same, you

6:15

know, pitch the same company. We were

6:17

doing uh mostly dairy testing at that

6:19

point. So testing dairy cows to try and

6:21

predict uh their milk yield, which for

6:23

farmers is actually very valuable

6:25

because they don't make milk until

6:26

they're 18 months old. And so from day

6:29

one, all your animals have to have a

6:31

cough every year to keep making milk. So

6:33

your herd doubles every year.

6:34

>> Is this still the same curative company?

6:36

>> No, this is a completely different

6:38

company.

6:38

>> Okay. I was about to say, god my this is

6:40

where investing is so difficult because

6:41

like if you hear a founder pitching milk

6:44

yield optimization [laughter] and I'm

6:46

sure it is like logistically a big town

6:48

I'm sure

6:49

>> well not big enough that was the

6:50

problem.

6:51

>> Okay.

6:51

>> Yeah. So so we did this went to YC and

6:54

we raised a seed round from Andre

6:57

>> a seed round from Andre. Yeah, their

6:59

their bio uh fund uh did our seed round

7:02

right out of YC. Um and I don't think

7:06

they did the TAM calculation.

7:09

>> Um

7:09

>> they backfound us.

7:11

>> Credit to you.

7:12

>> Yeah, they they were like, "Oh, this

7:13

sounds interesting." And they did the

7:14

round. It was a small round. It was like

7:16

1.65 million. So

7:18

>> chum change.

7:18

>> It was for the coffee.

7:20

>> It was, you know, for for Andreason, it

7:22

was like a smaller round.

7:23

>> Sure.

7:23

>> Um and so we kept developing the

7:25

technology. We had customers. Uh, and

7:28

then we went to go raise an A. And then

7:30

people did do the TAM calculation and

7:32

there's about 100 million cows in the

7:34

US. If you're doing well, you could

7:36

charge 15 to $20 per test. So even if

7:38

you assume you could test every cow

7:40

every year, you'd be at 1.5 billion like

7:43

total market, which is not enough to do

7:45

a series A off of. And so what we end up

7:47

doing is taking some of the core DNA

7:49

testing technology that we had developed

7:51

and pivoting and using that for human

7:53

diagnostics. And so that was my kind of

7:55

first foray into healthcare. Uh we

7:58

actually first launched a high

7:59

throughput STD testing lab. Um yeah,

8:02

which was and we launched an at home STD

8:04

test. It was that was tons of fun.

8:06

[laughter]

8:08

>> I don't I used to run a lot when I was

8:11

young and my knees were wonderful. Uh,

8:12

and I used to love how I built this cuz

8:14

they would ask the questions like this,

8:16

which is like, how do you go from like

8:19

cows and musculature on cows and milk

8:22

yield optimization to at home STD

8:24

testing? [laughter] Like, it doesn't

8:26

feel that natural a jump.

8:28

>> Yeah. On the back end, it's more

8:29

natural, right? All of these things have

8:31

DNA in them. And so, if you're if you're

8:33

looking to do better DNA testing, you're

8:36

just looking for markets where people

8:38

care more about that. and anything human

8:41

people obviously care a lot more about

8:43

are more willing to pay for and are much

8:44

larger markets. And so we sort of did

8:47

like a market first approach of, you

8:48

know, where where could there be

8:50

interesting things and we narrowed in on

8:53

uh antibiotic resistance in STDs as

8:56

being like a particularly interesting

8:58

area where they're getting harder and

8:59

harder to treat because you get more and

9:01

more antibiotic resistance. And if

9:02

you're doing the DNA testing, you can

9:04

predict what the best drug is going to

9:06

be early, treat with that drug, and then

9:08

you're not using the most aggressive

9:10

antibiotics.

9:11

>> Do we have more STDs than ever?

9:13

>> Yeah. Yeah.

9:16

>> [laughter]

9:17

>> This conversation's pivoting somewhere.

9:19

I didn't expect but I thought we were

9:22

having less sex than ever.

9:23

>> Yeah, but more STDs.

9:25

>> Wow.

9:26

>> Yeah,

9:26

>> that's worrying.

9:28

>> Yeah, it is. And and well, it's a while

9:30

since I looked at the statistics because

9:32

I've not been doing this for a while

9:34

now. Um but when I was like last in this

9:37

Yeah. The statistics were just kind of a

9:39

like steady increase and then an

9:41

increase in resistance. And so it's

9:42

getting to the point where certain STDs

9:44

are like harder and harder to treat and

9:46

some of them might eventually become

9:47

untreatable or like you have to be

9:49

hospitalized to get a certain really

9:51

powerful antibiotic to treat it which is

9:53

crazy. Um and so antibiotic stewardship

9:56

was a whole thing. And so we did that

9:57

with STDs [snorts] and then [laughter]

10:00

I love this conversation keep. And then

10:02

[clears throat] and then we found a

10:04

fascinating market in sepsis. Um and so

10:06

sepsis is a disease that kills hundreds

10:08

of thousands of people a year. It's

10:10

basically where you get bacteria in your

10:11

bloodstream. And what kills you is not

10:14

actually the bacteria. It's your own

10:15

immune system. So, you're not supposed

10:17

to have bacteria in your blood, right?

10:19

Your blood is supposed to be sterile.

10:20

And when bacteria get in there, your

10:22

immune system kind of freaks out and it

10:24

triggers this whole downstream cascade

10:27

where your blood vessels start to leak

10:28

and all of your organs start failing and

10:31

it's basically really bad. And that's

10:32

what kills you is your own uh immune

10:34

reaction to the bacteria rather than the

10:38

bacteria. And so this is, you know, one

10:41

of the leading causes of death in the

10:43

US. Often if you're dying from something

10:45

else, like if you know, you have serious

10:47

cancer, it'll be sepsis that ultimately

10:49

ends up being what kills you. Um because

10:51

you get more susceptible to it uh with

10:53

other diseases. And so it's leading

10:55

cause of death, like increasing

10:57

mortality. It's incredibly expensive.

10:59

Outcomes are terrible. Um and so we were

11:02

working on basically a better testing

11:04

technology where from the earliest date

11:07

uh you could detect these bacteria and

11:10

what antibiotic they are going to be

11:12

susceptible to and treat people faster

11:14

because with sepsis basically every hour

11:16

that you don't treat somebody is about a

11:18

12% increase in mortality. So you want

11:20

to get the treatment as soon as

11:21

possible.

11:22

>> Every hour you don't treat someone is a

11:24

12% increase mortality.

11:26

>> Yeah.

11:26

>> Okay. And so we start the sepsis

11:28

testing.

11:28

>> So start the sepsis testing. And so this

11:31

>> does it instantly go well?

11:33

>> No. So this company died at the end of

11:34

2019.

11:35

>> Oh, I'm sorry.

11:36

>> Yes. So, uh, we went to the testing was

11:39

working great. Prototypes were, you

11:41

know, pursuing the FDA approval process.

11:43

We went to do a series B round, uh, with

11:48

ended up being a strategic.

11:49

>> Sorry, just so I understand. So, we

11:50

raised the A from A and it's still the

11:52

same company as this milky.

11:54

>> Same company. Yeah. It changed its name

11:55

from TL BABs to Shield.

11:57

>> Oh, love it. Good. It's a good single

11:59

name. Okay. So, we go to raise the

12:00

series B, bigger TAM, sepsis, death,

12:03

more bigger

12:03

>> TAM gravitas. Yeah. Many many billions

12:05

of dollars TAM uh for testing for this

12:08

and ended up getting a term sheet from a

12:09

strategic uh large public diagnostic

12:12

company. Signed the term sheet, did

12:15

three weeks of of work on docs. We were

12:17

in the second round of docs and then

12:19

their CEO killed it because it was too

12:20

competitive with their core products.

12:24

Meanwhile, we told all the investors

12:25

that, oh yeah, we've got the lead. We're

12:27

good to go. Oh, here's the paperwork.

12:29

And so, uh, that was the death of the

12:32

company. It had, we had about 3 weeks

12:33

worth of cash.

12:35

>> Would you be where you are today,

12:36

though, if that round had come together?

12:38

>> No. No. Cuz I don't think we would have

12:40

pivoted as hard into CO when CO hit. Um,

12:43

I mean, it would have probably been

12:44

easier cuz we had at that point, we

12:46

actually had a lab license. So, you

12:49

know, in the US, you need this thing

12:50

called a clear license to run these kind

12:52

of tests. And we had got one of these

12:54

licenses over like a painstaking

12:55

two-year process. Uh, and then in

12:59

December of 2019, as part of the

13:03

windown, I sold that license to a

13:05

company in San Diego for $150,000

13:08

uh to pay some of the creditors and then

13:12

5 months later acquired a company in

13:14

Southern California to get the same

13:16

license for 27 million.

13:19

So, timing is everything.

13:21

>> Whoa, whoa, whoa, wait, wait. So, we're

13:23

winding down the company and we sell

13:25

this license for $150,000,

13:27

>> which is it roughly its market value if

13:29

there is not a pandemic.

13:30

>> Totally get that. Cool. Okay. And so,

13:32

we're winding down the company. I want

13:34

to go chronologically cuz that's like a

13:36

wild [laughter] number like flies in

13:38

shutting down the company in 20 now 20 I

13:40

guess.

13:41

>> Uh it was Yeah. kind of right at the end

13:43

of 2019.

13:43

>> Okay. End of 2019. Shutting down the

13:45

company strategic alle [ __ ] that.

13:49

[snorts] Um

13:50

>> and then what happens then? So then I

13:53

was kind of looking at what to do next.

13:55

Um, and

13:55

>> were you like personally devastated?

13:58

This is five years of your life. Yes.

14:00

Any lessons for founders? Reflections on

14:02

that?

14:03

>> I think it's a lot easier to build a

14:05

company the second time around. Like

14:07

there's so many mistakes the first time

14:09

where you just you don't know how to do

14:10

like thing X, like the first time you

14:12

fire somebody, like how to build a good

14:14

interview process, how to build a

14:15

pipeline. Like there's so many things

14:17

that it's really easy to screw up the

14:18

first time around. And then when you've

14:19

seen them go wrong, it's so much easier

14:21

to build it the second time around. And

14:23

so like, yes, it's the worst thing in

14:25

the world to go, you know, to go through

14:27

is having something you poured all that

14:29

time and energy into and like, you know,

14:31

the 7-day work weeks and the late nights

14:34

basically go to zero. But you learn as

14:37

long as through that you you learn and

14:39

you take those lessons and you go solve

14:42

an even bigger problem, I think, you

14:43

know, you got something out of it.

14:45

>> Okay. And so this company is like

14:47

winding down,

14:49

>> need to find something else. What

14:50

happens now?

14:51

>> Yeah. So originally the pitch behind

14:53

curative uh was we were going to also

14:57

solve sepsis but in a completely

14:59

different way. [laughter]

15:01

>> You really focused on really. [snorts]

15:05

Yeah. So

15:07

when we were going through all of this

15:08

work with the sepsis diagnostics, one of

15:10

the things that kept jumping out in the

15:12

data was when you look at other

15:14

companies that had tried to do sepsis

15:16

diagnostics because we were not the

15:17

first. A bunch of big pharma companies

15:19

like Ro spent a couple hundred million.

15:21

Um Seaman spent a hundred million. A

15:23

bunch of companies spent a lot of money

15:25

trying to make better sepsis

15:26

diagnostics. So it's kind of this like

15:28

graveyard of dead sepsis companies. And

15:30

when you dig into the data, you find

15:32

this really interesting thing that in

15:34

academic medical centers when you try

15:35

out these new sepsis tests, they work

15:37

great and you see much better outcomes

15:40

and you see, you know, people live

15:41

longer and it's saving lives. And then

15:44

you try to replicate that in bigger

15:46

studies and they fail. And when you dig

15:48

in and look why, it's when you expand

15:50

that aperture of who's in the trial out

15:52

of the academic medical center and into

15:54

community hospitals. What's happening in

15:57

a community hospital is they're so

15:59

understaffed, they're so overwhelmed

16:01

with the volume, particularly in the

16:02

emergency room, they don't suspect

16:04

sepsis fast enough and as I said

16:07

earlier, it's every hour is 12% increase

16:09

in mortality. And the intervention that

16:11

they have to do is actually pretty

16:13

severe. They basically put a big IV line

16:15

usually in your femoral artery. They're

16:17

pumping you full of fluids. They're

16:18

pumping you full of nasty antibiotics

16:20

that have bad side effects. So, it's a

16:22

pretty aggressive treatment. But if they

16:24

don't suspect sepsis early enough and

16:26

jump to that treatment, by the time they

16:28

get there, it's already too late. And so

16:30

if you're in a community hospital and

16:32

it's 2 a.m. on a Saturday, is there

16:34

someone on staff that actually suspects

16:36

sepsis early enough or does it wait

16:37

until Monday morning?

16:40

And so it doesn't matter if you have a

16:42

better test if no one ever runs it. And

16:44

so the original pitch behind curative is

16:46

let's take the learnings from an

16:48

academic medical center and go out to

16:51

community hospitals and basically build

16:53

mini hospital in a hospital uh that just

16:56

manages their sepsis patients. So

16:58

whenever they get somebody you know we

16:59

will diagnose them as having sepsis out

17:02

of the emergency room. We will then take

17:04

on that patient. They would pay as a

17:05

fixed fee. So no matter what happens

17:07

we're on the hook. If we can drive a

17:09

better outcome by applying mostly just

17:11

getting doctors to follow the

17:12

instructions but at scale then you could

17:15

drive better outcomes um by getting

17:18

those academic medical center type um

17:21

like clinical results but helping a

17:23

community hospital actually do that.

17:24

>> So what happens then we we start that

17:26

business

17:27

>> start that business we raised uh a

17:30

million dollars of seed money. Uh Justin

17:32

was the first investor you mentioned at

17:34

the beginning Justin Matine. Uh he came

17:36

in uh right as I was shutting down

17:38

Shield. He was an investor in Shield. Um

17:40

and he wanted to put more money into

17:43

Shield. And I said, "No, I I don't think

17:44

you should do that. I think that company

17:46

is is, you know, is not going to make it

17:49

unfortunately, but I'm thinking of

17:51

starting this new thing." And he was

17:53

like, "Yes, I'm in." And he didn't even

17:54

know what it was.

17:55

>> How much did he put in? He

17:56

>> put in, I think, $125,000

17:58

uh at a $3 million valuation. Wow.

18:01

>> So, he was the first

18:02

>> Okay.

18:03

>> First money in.

18:04

>> First money in. Love it.

18:05

>> Um and and so we had a pilot set up with

18:08

a first hospital in Wisconsin. This was

18:11

a clinician that we'd worked with

18:12

before. He was really enthusiastic. And

18:15

then we got a call from his assistant

18:17

saying this is all on hold and I can't

18:19

speak to you for at least 3 months.

18:21

>> Huh.

18:21

>> And we were like, that's really out of

18:23

character that he wouldn't at least call

18:25

us or text us or that he's having his

18:27

assistant. And when we dug in, they were

18:30

getting ready for this thing called CO

18:31

19 that they were expecting to see the

18:33

first patient in their hospital. And so

18:35

that was the first inkling for me of

18:37

like, oh crap, this is going to be a big

18:39

thing. This is going to be bigger than

18:41

people think it is. And so they were

18:43

shutting down the entire hospital. And

18:44

so it started off for us as like, okay,

18:46

well, we can't run our clinical studies.

18:49

We can't actually launch this product

18:50

because all the hospitals are on

18:52

lockdown. maybe we can go help out with

18:54

this testing thing for a couple of weeks

18:56

until all of this blows over um and then

18:58

we'll go back to sepsis.

19:00

>> And so at that point we're like we've

19:02

move into CO 19 testing.

19:04

>> Yes. Yes. And so it all happened quite

19:06

quickly from like a lot of me saying no

19:08

no no this is not going to be a thing

19:09

like don't worry about it like just it's

19:11

>> What was the moment where you realized

19:13

like where were you like this is

19:14

substantially going to be a real thing?

19:17

So, I was like in my apartment in San

19:19

Francisco looking at some data that I

19:21

think was on Twitter. Um, and and I was

19:24

like, "Oh crap, if that if this

19:27

continues at this rate, like this is

19:29

going to be way more substantial than

19:31

people realize." And so this was

19:34

probably midFebruary. Um, and so then I

19:36

started to reach out about sort of

19:38

setting up testing capacity uh to well,

19:41

first of all, we had the problem of

19:42

finding a lab license cuz I just sold

19:44

the lab license. [gasps] This was the

19:46

150 grand you just sold.

19:48

>> So just sold the lab license and so we

19:50

didn't have a lab anymore that was

19:52

capable of running these kind of tests.

19:53

We had a test. Um so our chief

19:55

scientific officer at at Curative had in

19:58

his spare time developed a COVID test.

20:01

And one of the things they' done at a

20:03

previous company is they developed one

20:05

of these flu tests and just offered it

20:06

to employees to make them feel better.

20:09

And so he said, "Hey, can I develop a

20:12

COVID test? I don't think it'll be very

20:13

useful, but it might make our employees

20:15

feel good, and it's like a good training

20:17

exercise for the team. And so, they had

20:19

worked on through January and the early

20:22

part of February a COVID test that

20:24

they'd been developing uh basically in

20:26

their like spare time in evenings and in

20:28

weekends. And so then when everything

20:31

started to really take off, we actually

20:32

already had the test. What we didn't

20:34

have was a lab to deploy it in.

20:36

>> And so at that point, you then go back

20:38

to the old one and buy it for 27

20:39

million.

20:40

>> No. So I bought a different lab license.

20:41

you bought a different lab.

20:42

>> So, we reached out I reached out to a

20:43

bunch of people I knew in the Bay Area

20:45

that had facilities with this kind of

20:46

license. Nobody wanted anything COVID

20:49

related on site. Nobody wanted, you

20:51

know, anything to do with it. And so we

20:55

um I like put it out I just put out an

20:57

email to like everybody I know. Um, and

20:59

there's actually a guy who uh was in the

21:02

same YC batch as me um who had become a

21:04

VC and he uh connected me to a group in

21:08

LA and they had this license and they

21:10

were using it for like uh sports doping

21:13

testing and they were in what I thought

21:15

was LA. I remember telling Justin, "Oh,

21:17

Justin, I'm going to to LA. I'll be in

21:19

Sand Deas." And he was like, "Where the

21:21

hell is Sand Deas?" It's like basically

21:24

very far east of actual LA. It's still

21:27

in LA County. It's a little city uh best

21:30

known for uh Bill and Ted. It's a little

21:33

town of like 30,000 people.

21:35

>> And that's where the lab test

21:36

>> and that's where the lab was. And so I

21:38

flew out there to look at that lab. Uh

21:40

this was from uh from San Francisco. And

21:43

to look at one other lab license that

21:45

was I think affiliated with um with one

21:48

of the universities and you know they

21:50

had a good space, they had this license

21:52

and they were doing pretty minimal

21:54

testing. So they just kind of like a

21:56

blank slate. And so it started off as a

21:58

50/50 JV between Curative and this

22:01

company that had the lab license. And we

22:04

would bring the test, we would bring the

22:05

expertise, they would bring the license.

22:08

And it became pretty clear quite quickly

22:10

that they didn't have the expertise to

22:13

scale it up. Like they were actively

22:16

getting in the way of scaling it up. Um

22:18

and so we

22:19

>> What did you do?

22:20

>> We bought them out

22:21

>> and that was that was the 27 million.

22:22

Where did you get 27 million from?

22:25

>> Uh forward revenue from customers. So we

22:27

were getting paid. We had our first

22:29

testing contract. We were doing the uh

22:33

police and the fire department.

22:35

>> And so how do you do you have the chief

22:38

science officer who's created this

22:39

brilliant task kit?

22:40

>> Yep.

22:40

>> And you go to like San Francisco state

22:44

or government.

22:45

>> So this is mostly Yeah. And so actually

22:46

our very first customer was the sheriff

22:48

department in Sand Demos. Well, we did

22:50

some like private testing for

22:51

individuals that were paying for the

22:53

tests. But our first, you know,

22:54

government customer was the sheriff's

22:56

department in Sand Demus and that came

22:58

about because they got wind that we were

23:01

setting up a CO lab because people were

23:03

freaking out about it in the town. And

23:05

so one of their sheriffs reached out to

23:07

me on LinkedIn and was like, "Hey, what

23:10

are you guys doing?" Um, and so I

23:12

connected with him and I explained what

23:13

we're doing and how it was very safe and

23:15

how we had this way of deactivating the

23:17

COVID as soon as it went into the sample

23:19

and so there was no live virus on site

23:21

and we were not presenting a risk to the

23:23

community and actually this was going to

23:24

be a good thing and we're going to be

23:25

hiring a lot of people and kind of got

23:27

him on board that you know we're doing

23:29

we knew what we're doing and we're doing

23:30

this in a safe way. And then he was

23:32

like, "Well, well, we really need

23:33

testing." And then the fire department

23:35

wanted testing. And then our first

23:37

really big contract was the city of LA.

23:39

And that came about from a tweet. Um, so

23:42

we had uh Laura Deming

23:44

>> who was a

23:45

>> Yeah, I remember she's YC uh longevity.

23:49

Yeah, exactly. So she um you know was

23:52

was a friend and would trying to

23:54

basically help with the pandemic. And so

23:56

she actually drove me down to LA with a

23:59

car full of PCR machines um so I could

24:02

like work on a laptop and she helped

24:05

with a lot of the early development work

24:07

and she tweeted, "Hey, we've got CO

24:09

testing capacity. Does anybody want some

24:13

deputy mayor of LA slid into her DMs

24:17

and was like, "Yes, please. We would

24:18

like to talk about that."

24:20

>> Wow.

24:21

>> So that was how our first big contract

24:23

came about. And so you speak to

24:25

[laughter] the deputy mayor of LA.

24:27

>> Yeah. And then so they were doing a

24:29

pilot. They said, "Look, we got a couple

24:30

of labs. You know, you're going to have

24:32

to demonstrate this." Because we were

24:33

complete unknown, right? We' done

24:35

>> And co wasn't peak ramps now, was it?

24:37

This was

24:38

>> This was like early March. So people

24:40

lockdowns had just started. Everybody

24:42

was starting to freak out. There was

24:44

basically nowhere to get a test. Like

24:46

you unless you were ultra high risk and

24:49

in a hospital, there was pretty much no

24:51

chance you were getting a test. So

24:52

everybody was freaking out. This is when

24:54

everybody was still like cleaning their

24:56

um you know supermarket bags with wipes

24:59

and nobody knows what's going on.

25:02

Everything's shutting down. Um it wasn't

25:04

so bad on the West Coast, but New York

25:06

was like was really bad already by this

25:09

point.

25:09

>> And so they're paying ahead of time. So

25:12

the best thing we could get with the

25:14

city of LA because they have obviously

25:16

their city there are certain

25:17

restrictions is that they would pay

25:19

after delivery but they would pay net

25:22

one on the invoice. And so we would

25:24

deliver the tests for a day and then we

25:26

would send somebody to city hall the

25:29

next morning to pick up a check for

25:30

those tests.

25:31

>> Wow.

25:32

>> So the tests had been done. They were

25:33

paying after we delivered them. Um but

25:35

which was not you know your standard

25:37

like net 30 [laughter] or net 60 for a

25:40

government contract. They were having we

25:42

were invoicing them every day for the

25:43

number of tests they did and they were

25:45

having somebody in their finance

25:46

department like get us the check because

25:48

we needed that to pay for supplies to

25:51

basically grow out that testing capacity

25:53

for where they wanted to be.

25:55

>> What's the single largest contract you

25:57

signed?

25:57

>> Probably one of the Florida contracts

25:59

was maybe the largest. So we did a

26:01

contract with the state of Florida for

26:02

all of their nursing home testing. Um I

26:05

forget what the dollar figure was, but

26:06

it was, you know, in the hundreds of

26:08

millions of dollars. And so we were the

26:11

they put it out out to bid and we won

26:13

it.

26:13

>> Hundreds of millions.

26:14

>> Yeah. They tested every employee at

26:17

every nursing home across the state once

26:20

a week for a 3-month period. And so they

26:24

did a great job of basically keeping

26:26

things open, keeping these nursing homes

26:28

open, keeping visitation, but making

26:31

sure that the employees of those nursing

26:32

homes were not spreading COVID to the

26:35

people in the nursing homes. Um, and so

26:37

they wanted to test every single

26:39

employee that was working at those

26:41

nursing homes and then exclude the

26:42

people that weren't uh that that had

26:44

COVID so they weren't exposing the uh

26:46

the residents there. And so we ran this

26:49

big program, a bunch of labs or they put

26:51

it out to bid and everybody said, "No,

26:53

that's too crazy. Like that's

26:54

impossible. We cannot possibly test that

26:57

many facilities with that tight a

26:59

turnaround time. Like this is

27:01

impossible." And we bid. We're like,

27:02

"Yeah, we can we can do that. We'll make

27:03

that work." Um, and we delivered it.

27:06

What did you see that others didn't?

27:08

>> That you have to kind of scale like

27:10

something like that up from scratch that

27:12

the existing labs like the lab industry

27:15

in general is a very low margin industry

27:16

and it's built on efficiency. You look

27:18

at the big labs, the Quest and Lab

27:20

Corpse and they are ultra efficient

27:22

machines. Like they're some of what they

27:23

do with automation is incredible. But if

27:26

you're asking them to 10x capacity,

27:28

that's literally the opposite of what

27:30

they're built for. they are built for we

27:33

will get 1% extra margin by optimizing

27:36

this bit of the process over here so

27:38

that it is perfectly efficient and they

27:39

are really good at that but if you ask

27:42

them to 10x that it really doesn't work

27:45

and the mindset isn't there the people

27:47

don't know how to scale those kind of

27:48

things up all of the supply chain broke

27:50

down and so we basically said okay start

27:52

from scratch throw all of that away

27:54

imagine that you're going to have to

27:55

scale this up to hundreds of thousands

27:57

of tests a day where do you start and so

28:00

we built what we called an orthogonal

28:02

supply chain which is just basically a

28:04

fancy way of saying we don't use the

28:06

things other people use

28:09

>> sound like a Mackenzie consultant

28:10

specializing in innovation an orthogonal

28:12

supply chain yeah great

28:13

>> well I found that was like a good fancy

28:15

word that like you know was helpful from

28:17

a sales

28:17

>> stand

28:19

what it basically means is everybody was

28:20

chasing the same uh consumables the same

28:23

supplies everybody was trying to use the

28:25

same stuff and if if you know you can

28:28

make 1x of that maybe they can increase

28:30

to make 1.2x. If everybody's trying to

28:32

buy that, us also trying to buy that

28:35

doesn't help. That doesn't net increase

28:37

the number of tests being done, right?

28:38

It just makes us all squabble over it.

28:40

>> So that's pointless. So you got to find

28:42

other ways of doing the testing using

28:45

supplies that maybe wouldn't

28:46

traditionally be used for this kind of

28:47

testing. Um, so we were sourcing swabs,

28:50

you know, from other types of vendors

28:52

that were being used for, you know,

28:54

electronic testing and then sterilizing

28:56

them. we were sourcing. There's this

28:58

kind of extraction material that you

29:00

usually use and magnetic beads is kind

29:02

of the default standard, but there's

29:05

this other way of doing it with filter

29:06

plates which is more scalable because

29:08

it's basically just glass and plastic

29:10

and you can scale that up faster than

29:11

you can scale up magnetic beads where

29:14

they all come from basically two

29:15

factories in China. And so we're like,

29:17

okay, we should never use magnetic beads

29:19

because that's not going to scale as a

29:21

technology. we need to go find vendors

29:22

who can scale up the plastic and glass

29:24

manufacturing and partner with them to

29:26

basically 10x it. And so you kind of

29:28

approach every single bit of the supply

29:29

chain that way. You end up with this

29:32

massive scale. Now, outside of a

29:34

pandemic, that doesn't work because

29:35

people don't want 10x more testing than

29:37

they wanted yesterday. But within a

29:39

pandemic, you got to approach it

29:40

differently. And so we peaked, I think

29:42

our peak day was 26,000 people tested in

29:45

a single day.

29:47

>> 206,000 people tested in a single day.

29:49

And that was December of 2020. So that

29:52

was within

29:54

eight months from zero zero to 26,000.

29:57

So and the company went from about 7 to

30:00

7,000 employees in in those first nine

30:03

months.

30:04

>> 7,000 employees in 9 months.

30:06

>> Yeah. [laughter]

30:08

>> Yeah. It was it was a little crazy.

30:10

>> Do you sleep at all? I mean

30:12

>> I don't sleep very much now.

30:14

>> But like in that time, what was the

30:15

craziest thing that you did?

30:18

Um, I mean some of the hiring, you know,

30:20

you have to get licensed people for

30:22

certain roles, but other like more

30:23

administrative roles, you don't need

30:25

licensed people. And so we would

30:26

literally a lot of people wanted to work

30:28

on the pandemic, which is very helpful.

30:29

We'd have people like line up in the

30:31

parking lot um, socially distanced like

30:33

down the street and then give them five

30:35

minute interview slots and just have

30:37

somebody sit there with a clipboard and

30:38

it's like 5 minutes and next just to get

30:41

the volume of people um, in the door.

30:44

>> How much money did you make from co

30:46

testing? I think the total revenue ended

30:49

up being about five billion over a

30:51

three-year period.

30:54

>> Five billion. Is that the largest

30:56

private provider?

30:58

>> We were Yeah, we were the largest like

31:00

non-labcest

31:02

testing company.

31:03

>> That is extraordinary. What is the

31:06

margin profile on a co test?

31:08

>> So really good during surges and then

31:11

really bad not during surges. [laughter]

31:15

Um, so what we found was when when there

31:17

was a peak, right, so we get a new

31:19

variant or, you know, this usually

31:22

winter was the biggest peak, but then we

31:24

started having these summer peaks, which

31:25

was kind of weird. Um, everybody would

31:26

run to get tested. Um, and these were

31:29

all public testing sites. So these were

31:30

in parking lots. These were the

31:31

drive-through tests. That was what we

31:33

were doing. So if you went to a

31:34

drive-through testing site, like the

31:35

biggest one was the uh Dodger Stadium

31:38

site in LA. It was seven lanes of

31:40

traffic, 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. 7 days a

31:42

week.

31:43

So they were testing at the peak about

31:45

10,000 people a day coming through their

31:46

cars getting tested and coming back to

31:49

the lab. So when you're at peak capacity

31:52

and you're filling all of the labs

31:54

volume,

31:55

it's very profitable. Then those uh

31:58

basically surges subside, right, and you

32:00

end up back at testing, you know, using

32:04

20 or 30% of your capacity. All your

32:06

fixed costs the same. You're still

32:08

paying 7,000 to people. Now you don't

32:11

have to buy as many consumables, but all

32:13

of that infrastructure has to be

32:15

maintained for the surge. And so this is

32:17

again where it's like the opposite of

32:18

the traditional lab industry where they

32:20

have a very flat volume. Every year

32:22

people do roughly the same amount of

32:24

blood work as they did last year or

32:26

maybe do like predictably slightly more,

32:29

but it's it's within a couple of

32:30

percentage points. here you're kind of

32:32

building it for that peak capacity

32:37

and then during the lulls like

32:39

maintaining that capacity is incredibly

32:41

expensive and so it was kind of

32:43

necessary and this was part of the way

32:45

it was set up they increased the price

32:47

the reimbursement price uh that they

32:49

were paying for these tests because they

32:51

needed to incentivize the capacity to be

32:53

built because if you don't build that

32:54

peak capacity then when you have a surge

32:56

it all goes horribly wrong and no one

32:58

can get a test but that means you

32:59

basically have to pay to overbuild

33:01

Because during the dips you have to have

33:04

that capacity. You can't just shut it

33:05

down, right?

33:06

>> And you can't build up 7,000 in 24 hours

33:09

in

33:09

>> and so you need to maintain that. And so

33:12

we would lose a lot of money in every

33:14

one of the dips basically.

33:15

>> Well, you would actually lose money.

33:17

>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. We would lose money on

33:18

every test during the dips.

33:20

>> Oh wow.

33:20

>> Yeah.

33:21

>> So of the five billion, how much is

33:23

profit? So after all was said and done,

33:26

the money that we basically put forward

33:28

into the uh insurance business, the

33:30

health insurance company was about 500

33:31

million that we invested into the health

33:33

insurance business.

33:34

>> It's absolutely astonishing.

33:35

>> Yeah.

33:36

>> Can I ask you when we saw the vaccines

33:38

roll out, did you know they were

33:40

ineffective in the way that they've kind

33:42

of turned out to be? It was not clear at

33:45

the beginning and I think also it's it's

33:47

sort of changed like that when nobody's

33:50

had any exposure to co being vaccinated

33:53

probably provides a lot more benefit

33:55

once everybody's sort of had co a few

33:57

times then the vaccines benefit is much

34:00

less because you've already had it also

34:02

the varants got weaker and weaker uh

34:05

when we were first rolling them out I

34:07

mean I think in you know December of of

34:09

2020 there was benefit for a lot of

34:11

people getting the vaccine

34:12

>> did you get vaccinated.

34:14

>> Yes, we did that. We did 2 and a half

34:15

million vaccinations. That was another

34:16

service we did. We also lost a ton of

34:18

money on that. That was a terrible

34:19

business.

34:19

>> Why?

34:20

>> Um because the government wasn't paying

34:22

enough. We lost money on every single

34:24

dose. It cost more to administer them

34:26

than we were getting paid. So

34:27

>> why did you do it?

34:28

>> Uh giving back. A lot of our partners

34:32

wanted it. So a lot of the partners on

34:33

the government side we're working with

34:34

for testing also wanted us to administer

34:37

vaccinations.

34:39

>> Was it sounds awful? Was it a hard like

34:42

your business with co obviously being

34:44

eased

34:45

>> Yeah.

34:46

>> completely changes

34:48

>> and you have to pivot again.

34:50

>> Yeah. And so that started very early for

34:52

us cuz I wasn't going to last very long.

34:55

>> You were always aware it wouldn't last.

34:56

>> Yes. When we started hiring people at

34:58

the beginning, we told them this is 3

35:00

months. You have a job for 3 months.

35:02

Like don't bank on anything beyond 3

35:04

months. This is a three-month gig and

35:06

we're going to shut it all down in three

35:08

months. Um, so the the CFO and now the

35:12

president of Curative joined at the

35:13

beginning and for her it was going to be

35:15

a six-month gig. [laughter]

35:16

Um, she came out of retirement to help

35:18

with the pandemic for 6 months. Now 6

35:20

years later she's still here. But um, it

35:23

was supposed to be temporary and every

35:26

time you know a surge we got through a

35:27

surge I was like all right that's it.

35:29

It'll be over now. And then they just

35:30

kept happening. [laughter]

35:32

So, we started looking at kind of what

35:34

comes next middle of 2020, like really

35:38

early. Um, yeah.

35:41

>> How did that search for what comes next

35:43

change? You just started looking at

35:45

middle of 2020. It's not until end of

35:47

22, start of 23 when that actual search

35:49

is activated into real-time plan.

35:51

Correct.

35:52

>> Yeah. I think we started probably like

35:53

late 21 is when we got really serious

35:55

about health insurance. It just took a

35:57

while to actually get the license.

35:59

>> Yeah. Why health insurance?

36:00

>> Well, it wasn't the first idea. We

36:02

looked at a bunch of other stuff. We

36:03

looked at other stuff in the lab testing

36:06

industry. Unfortunately, it's just not

36:09

that big an industry. And so even like

36:11

we had this interesting technology that

36:13

could theoretically let you do a lot of

36:16

lab tests that are individual tests

36:17

today like as just one single test,

36:20

which would be scientifically quite

36:22

cool. But even if you say, okay, I'm

36:24

going to displace all of LabC and Quest,

36:27

that's about 30 billion of market cap.

36:29

So that's like the largest company you

36:31

could possibly build is about 30 billion

36:35

which that is a big company but coming

36:38

out of what we did with co I wanted to

36:40

build a much bigger company than that

36:42

and so there's just not a big enough

36:43

market in lab testing um so the lab

36:47

testing was was out and then we briefly

36:49

looked at trying to buy a hospital

36:52

um or multiple hospitals we looked at

36:53

one in Florida and we looked at one in

36:54

Texas and the idea was well if the

36:56

hospitals kind of like the the health

36:59

system becoming the center of where care

37:01

is delivered, they buy have bought up a

37:03

lot of the primary care offices. Um, if

37:06

you can transform that with technology,

37:08

can you drive much better outcomes? What

37:10

we ultimately decided is it doesn't work

37:13

that well because the payer mix is too

37:15

broken up. And so, as a hospital, your

37:18

customer is like 50% the government and

37:21

then a whole bunch of like split up

37:23

smaller insurance plans. and they all

37:25

want different things and they change

37:26

their mind every 5 minutes about what

37:28

they actually want and you're trying to

37:29

like keep them all happy. So your

37:32

ability to really change things from the

37:33

hospital side is quite limited is what

37:35

we ended up deciding. Um and when you

37:37

come back to it like we looked at a

37:40

bunch of preventative care things we

37:41

looked at a primary care chain

37:43

everything sort of ends up coming back

37:45

to the payer like the payer is the one

37:47

that drives behavior in the US healthare

37:49

system. If you are providing the dollars

37:51

people will go where the dollars are. If

37:52

you say I'm gonna pay for this service,

37:54

people will go do that service. If you

37:55

say I'm not going to pay for this,

37:57

people will stop doing that. And so the

37:59

payer is the one that's kind of driving

38:01

things.

38:01

>> If you could do one thing to change the

38:03

structure of the US healthcare system

38:05

today, magic wand, what would you do?

38:09

>> Um,

38:11

I think you have to break up the

38:12

negotiating into smaller units. like

38:15

it's gone to this point where I think

38:18

it's it's quite an efficient system as a

38:20

market when the counterparties are small

38:24

when everything gets very consolidated

38:26

it becomes incredibly inefficient. So

38:28

when we look at for example health

38:29

systems right so we pay for for care at

38:32

health systems

38:34

some of that care you can get in other

38:36

places if we look at how much we'd pay a

38:38

primary care doctor who's independent

38:40

compared to a primary care doctor

38:41

affiliated with a system affiliated with

38:43

a system they get paid an average double

38:46

same service

38:48

you know same credentials it's just that

38:50

this one is part of a hospital system

38:52

and that hospital system will use the

38:54

fact that they

38:56

have a ton of beds that They have this

38:59

ultra special surgery center that you

39:01

need like we need to have that capacity

39:03

in our network because some people need

39:04

to be hospitalized, some people need

39:06

those services that if you want to get

39:08

access to that, you got to pay me double

39:10

for my primary care doctors.

39:13

And so when all of the players are

39:15

small, when you have smaller payers and

39:18

smaller hospitals, you end up kind of

39:19

getting to reasonable negotiations.

39:21

What's happened is you have these

39:23

massive payers like the market is ultra

39:25

consolidated. You basically have like

39:26

four large players that control the

39:29

entire market on the payer side and then

39:31

you get these ultra consolidated

39:32

hospital systems because that's the only

39:34

way for them to survive if they want to,

39:36

you know, fight with Blue Cross. The

39:38

only way to survive is to get really big

39:39

so they have the negotiating power and

39:41

then they just reach these loggerheads

39:43

where nothing gets done and everybody's

39:45

overpaying for everything and

39:47

everything's inefficient. And when you

39:49

have more competition in the market,

39:51

more smaller payers entering more, you

39:54

know, smaller health systems, you start

39:56

to get like an actual efficient market.

39:58

When you're just negotiating for like,

39:59

hey, I have a third of healthcare in the

40:01

state and I have a third of all of the

40:04

employees in the state. It's not an

40:06

efficient market anymore because there's

40:08

no alternative. You h you must reach a

40:10

deal.

40:11

>> If I am sick, is the best place to be

40:13

treated in the US?

40:14

>> Yes, definitely.

40:15

>> Seriously.

40:17

Yeah.

40:19

Yeah. We have the US has the access to

40:23

by far the most cutting edge techniques

40:27

and facilities and drugs than the rest

40:30

of the world and they're willing to

40:32

spend a lot more.

40:33

>> What do you know now, sorry, that you

40:35

wish you'd known when you made the pivot

40:37

into insurance? I think I wish that I

40:40

knew AI was coming

40:43

because I think like the way we designed

40:45

the business in 2022 when we first

40:48

started, we had no idea that this wave

40:51

of AI and LLM was coming. Like we were

40:53

building a health insurance business

40:54

because we thought it was a good

40:56

business to build and we thought it

40:57

needed to be built. We needed a better

40:59

alternatives in the market for health

41:00

insurance. And then in the last like 18

41:04

months, how we do pretty much everything

41:07

is now a completely different workflow.

41:09

And we there's so much I mean all health

41:11

insurance does is like moving bits

41:13

around, right? Like we don't have a

41:14

physical product. We give you a little

41:16

plastic card, but apart from that our

41:18

product is that we move bits around in a

41:20

database that means care is paid for.

41:22

>> That's it, right? And we do a lot of

41:25

managing kind of managing a marketplace.

41:27

We work with the providers to negotiate

41:29

prices. We work with employers to

41:31

negotiate how much they pay and then we

41:33

try to work with employees to keep them

41:35

healthy. If we can get people to stay

41:37

healthy, we can avoid the long-term

41:38

downstream cost of care. Essentially,

41:40

it's marketplace business. Um, and that

41:42

has been fundamentally like shifted by

41:45

AI. But when we first started building,

41:47

we didn't know that was coming

41:48

>> by AI.

41:49

>> So, so much of that back office work,

41:52

right, has been completely changed by

41:54

AI. There's we now have entire

41:56

departments that used to be people like

41:58

rubber stamping things. Um the first one

42:01

that went to zero people was our

42:03

credentiing department. Um where you

42:05

know this is a process that's incredibly

42:07

labor intensive where you have to check

42:10

all doctors that join our network have a

42:12

valid medical license and aren't being

42:13

sued for malpractice. And this is, you

42:16

know, a person going to the medical

42:18

board website, checking that the license

42:20

record is there, checking transcripts

42:22

from their school, checking like a

42:24

database of of who's been sued by who,

42:27

um, and then like rubber stamping. And

42:28

that used to take us two to three months

42:30

on average and cost about $50. We've now

42:33

built in-house an agent that runs on on

42:36

Claude that does this end to end. and it

42:39

goes to the website, it verifies the

42:41

license, it goes and reads the

42:42

transcript, it puts it all together, it

42:44

stamps it for approval. Um, and we're

42:46

now averaging about 12 hours turnaround

42:48

time for credentiing somebody. And it

42:51

cost us about 20 cents. And so this is

42:53

like a mind-numbing process that payers

42:54

have to do, which is important. We want

42:56

to know the doctors in our network,

42:58

right, are are validly licensed to

43:00

practice medicine. Um, but it's like

43:04

historically has always been kind of

43:06

terrible and payers have been bad at it,

43:08

right? If you're a doctor and you join a

43:10

network and it takes 3 months before you

43:11

can see any patients. It's just

43:13

bureaucracy, right? Like they don't

43:14

Doctors hate that and it's not actually

43:17

adding the value that it should be

43:18

adding. It's just creating paperwork.

43:20

>> How many people did you have in

43:21

credentiing?

43:22

>> That one wasn't that large. I think

43:24

there was like five or six people. We

43:26

had a few other departments that have

43:27

shrunk more than that with the

43:29

>> What other departments? We've seen a lot

43:31

on the claims side, claims processing,

43:34

right, is used to be a very manual

43:35

process where claims comes in and people

43:37

are like manually tweaking and editing

43:39

it. Um, and also on the underwriting

43:41

side, underwriting, you know, the

43:43

process used to be uh a broker comes to

43:46

us with a group, an employer that

43:49

they're looking to insure and they ask

43:51

for competitive bids from multiple

43:53

different insurance companies. And what

43:56

that means is basically sending us an

43:57

email with a bunch of PDFs and

43:59

spreadsheets attached of who are the

44:01

employees, what current claims do they

44:03

have, what's the current insurance look

44:04

like. And you'd think that over time

44:07

they would develop like a standardized

44:09

format for how that should run, but no,

44:12

every single one is like a different

44:13

spreadsheet format, different PDF. And

44:15

we tried to sort of solve that problem

44:17

with software and build like universal

44:20

importers and universal intake. And it

44:22

like it kind of worked, but what we

44:24

found works amazingly is literally to

44:27

give the files to an agent, tell it to

44:29

write Python to get these files into a

44:32

standardized format because they're not

44:33

very good at parsing files. But they're

44:35

incredibly good at codegen. And so you

44:38

can tell it to write a Python script to

44:40

convert any random file into this known

44:42

format and then test it and loop and

44:45

iterate on your script until it's

44:46

working. And then you throw away that

44:48

script. And so it's single use code that

44:50

never gets used again. and you just

44:51

generate that code one time and then

44:53

throw it away. Um, and that works so

44:56

well. And so now brokers, providers,

44:59

employers, when people are sending us

45:01

files, we always used to like insist,

45:03

oh, you have to use our standard format

45:05

for this. And they'd hate it and they'd

45:06

get mad cuz somebody's sitting there in

45:07

a provider office like manually

45:09

reformatting these files into our

45:11

spreadsheet. Now send us whatever you've

45:13

got, whatever format. It can be

45:14

scribbles on a napkin, it doesn't

45:16

matter. The model will figure it out.

45:18

The model will convert it into our

45:20

standard format. and it will do it in

45:21

about 15 minutes. And so you build these

45:23

data ingestion pipelines that used to be

45:26

hundreds of people sitting moving

45:28

spreadsheets around and it's now a model

45:32

writing Python code to do that same

45:34

thing and then every single time you

45:36

throw that Python away and start from

45:37

scratch.

45:37

>> Dude, I have so many questions to ask on

45:39

the back of this. The first one is you

45:40

mentioned there kind of the internal

45:41

agent buildout that you've done for the

45:43

company and for your specific processes.

45:45

Yeah.

45:45

>> Do you buy the SAS is dead theory that

45:47

we will

45:49

>> Why?

45:50

>> Because I see the number of contracts

45:52

we're canceling.

45:54

>> Like we we just recently canceled our

45:56

Salesforce contract because we have an

45:58

internal CRM that was built, you know,

46:01

was vibe coded, that is working better,

46:03

that is managing our process better, um

46:05

is more integrated into what we're

46:07

doing. We run our agents inside of it

46:09

and no one was using Salesforce anymore.

46:11

$600,000 a year.

46:13

>> Wow.

46:13

>> Gone to zero. How long did it take?

46:16

>> Two months.

46:17

>> Is it worth because argument back I

46:20

always like to do both sides. I'm never

46:22

Is it worth the engineering hours to

46:24

vibe code that and then to maintain it?

46:27

>> The maintenance is is definitely one of

46:28

the most challenging pieces. Um I agree

46:31

with that. I think for most businesses

46:33

of of any reasonable scale, yes, it is

46:37

worth it. Now whether they will have the

46:38

tech resources to do that soon, I think

46:41

that's like the bigger question is kind

46:42

of when will this happen? But when you

46:44

build those things custom to your

46:46

workflow, they work better. Like most of

46:48

these big, you know, systems, you're

46:50

paying an administrator. Like we had a

46:52

full-time Salesforce administrator,

46:55

right? You're paying people whose sole

46:57

job is to manage this like archaic

47:00

software platform. Not that Salesforce

47:02

is archaic, but you know, we have a few

47:03

other like internal apps that we were

47:06

paying for like industry software that

47:09

is taking multiple FTEEs to maintain it.

47:12

You can transition that into one great

47:16

engineer and then whenever you want a

47:18

custom feature, you just go build it.

47:21

>> Absolutely [ __ ] wild. [laughter]

47:24

$600,000 a year on Salesforce.

47:26

>> Yeah.

47:26

>> Wow. And so we're seeing, you know,

47:28

there's pockets of software that I think

47:31

persist because they are more

47:32

infrastructure based.

47:34

>> Okay. Which persist?

47:35

>> So we're seeing a lot of backend stuff

47:37

like uh like Sentry like stuff like

47:39

that, right? Where it's like kind of

47:41

become part of your infrastructure. Um

47:43

Slack has been like notoriously hard

47:45

internally for us to like too many so

47:47

many people have built integrations and

47:49

like workflows that are now working in

47:51

Slack. Uh, I think that while they keep

47:53

putting the prices up, if they put the

47:54

prices up too much, then eventually

47:55

it'll make sense to replace that. But,

47:57

um,

47:57

>> what else is on the chopping block?

47:59

>> We we're cutting about 80% of our SAS

48:01

spend this year.

48:04

>> Wow.

48:05

>> So, we have like in in one of our

48:06

internal meetings, we have a slide of

48:08

like when when are SAS contracts due and

48:12

whose job is it to tell them that we're

48:14

not renewing this year?

48:16

>> Well, you can do it in one fell swoop.

48:17

>> Yeah. [laughter]

48:19

>> Well, they have renewals. We have to pay

48:20

them through the renewal. Ah, is it all

48:22

like legacy software like Salesforce

48:24

though?

48:24

>> Some of it's like that. Some of it's

48:25

like very insurance specific software.

48:27

Um, so like our claim system for

48:29

example, right, is this like massive

48:31

off-the-shelf platform that we just

48:34

migrated to a few years ago. This is

48:35

again why like if I'd known AI was

48:37

coming, we would have probably

48:38

approached things differently.

48:39

>> Um, and it's just it's very hard to use.

48:41

Like it's hard. Their API barely works.

48:44

It's hard to get the data out of their

48:45

database. Uh, they won't let us manage

48:48

it. It's it but that's how insurance

48:51

companies are running things and so

48:52

we've built our own claim system

48:54

completely from scratch in house that's

48:56

now uh we've migrated most of the

48:59

workflows off will be fully off in July

49:01

>> I am a health insurer you know other

49:03

health insurers

49:04

>> yes

49:04

>> I do not have the in-house capability

49:07

potentially technically to build the

49:10

agentic workforce that you are building

49:14

>> am I screwed [laughter]

49:16

>> I [snorts] think some of the biggest

49:17

insurers will struggle because they they

49:20

will not be able to keep up from a

49:21

margin standpoint with where we can get

49:23

to with agents. I think some of them do

49:26

have technical expertise. It's more like

49:31

operational and kind of people ops. If

49:33

you've built a company of 100,000 people

49:35

and in order to get this margin

49:37

improvement 50,000 of them have to be

49:38

laid off, somebody's fift just got a lot

49:41

smaller. And so they will do it slowly

49:45

over 10 years.

49:47

It will happen. But will it happen

49:49

quickly? No. And will we be able to

49:51

compete more effectively in the

49:52

meantime? Yes.

49:53

>> How do margins change?

49:55

>> Insurance is a very low margin business.

49:57

So 85% of your uh premium that we

50:01

collect must go out the door to pay for

50:04

care. So if we get in a dollar, we got

50:06

to spend 85 cents. Have to

50:09

[clears throat] by law.

50:10

>> If less than that goes out the door, we

50:14

have to give it back to the employer.

50:17

Which is another thing that's broken

50:18

about US healthcare because that drives

50:19

completely the wrong incentive where

50:22

actually from an insurance company

50:23

standpoint if your profit's capped at

50:24

15% the only way to increase profits is

50:27

to increase total spending which is not

50:29

what you want your insurance company

50:30

incentivized to do.

50:31

>> Why would I encourage people to go to

50:33

the gym eat healthily if actually I'm

50:35

not going to get that back anyway? So,

50:36

this was part of Obamacare and it's one

50:38

of the like

50:39

>> there's a lot of

50:41

>> there's some good things in Obamacare,

50:43

but there was a lot of things that I

50:44

think like the second order consequence

50:46

was not considered. It sounds like a

50:48

great PR thing to say we've capped

50:50

insurance company profits, right? That

50:52

sounds good, but it's BS.

50:54

>> It's like capping a CEO's like fiscal

50:57

base pay. Sounds great. Yeah. So, let's

50:59

just pay them 27 million in equity

51:01

compens. That's the reason why we have

51:03

such egregious comp packages for exacts

51:05

cuz they cap the equ the salary pay.

51:07

Ridiculous. With that, how's your

51:10

anthropic cost gone? [laughter]

51:13

>> Yes. So, I mean, this is one of I think

51:15

the kind of leading indicators for us is

51:17

that our anthropic cost over the last

51:20

like six or seven months has 6xed every

51:23

month from, you know, a base of, you

51:27

know, a couple of tens of thousands of

51:28

dollars now up to millions of dollars a

51:30

month. and it just keeps eventually

51:32

we're going to have to stop that

51:33

spending increase because you know it'll

51:35

get unreasonable but um we just keep

51:38

finding new things to do with it. And

51:40

then the other thing we found that's

51:41

been fascinating we're seeing a lot of

51:43

areas where it's not that we are

51:45

necessarily replacing the team. It's

51:48

that we're repurposing the team

51:50

[clears throat] and they are now so much

51:52

more productive. And so one area that

51:55

has always been like a particularly

51:56

challenging thing that makes it hard to

51:57

build a new insurance company is we have

51:59

to build this network. So the network is

52:01

all the doctors and all the hospitals

52:02

and all the people that we have to

52:03

contract with. And there's about 1.2

52:05

million of those in the US that you want

52:08

to have contracted. That ends up being

52:11

like 60 70,000 contracts that you have

52:14

to do. That's just a lot of work to go

52:16

out, get their attention, get them like

52:19

do a negotiation, get them to sign an

52:22

agreement, load all of their data and

52:24

have them in your network. And this has

52:25

been one of the biggest like pieces of

52:27

staying power of the big health plan

52:29

businesses is they built that over 100

52:32

years for Blue Cross and over like 50

52:33

years for United Sign. And so they did

52:36

it slowly over a long period of time. If

52:39

you're trying to from scratch come in

52:40

and start a new health plan, you've got

52:42

to reach out to all of those doctors and

52:45

negotiate. And so we have a team of

52:47

about 45 people who do those network

52:50

contracts and they reach out and they

52:51

negotiate. What we launched earlier this

52:54

year is an agent called Gwen.

52:58

And Gwen does the same workflow. You

53:02

give her basically a lead. Hey, there's

53:03

a primary care office over here. Uh

53:05

here's the address. and she will go

53:08

Google it, research them, learn a little

53:10

bit about their practice, um, figure out

53:13

what other payers are paying them

53:14

because there's a lot of this data out

53:15

there and these transparency files now

53:17

of how much are they getting paid. Find

53:19

their email address from Zoom Info.

53:22

Reach out to them and then basically

53:24

ping them repeatedly until they answer

53:26

her with custom emails like, "Hey, I

53:28

know about your practice. I know what

53:29

you're doing." Like customized content

53:31

to them. Uh, and then when she gets

53:33

their attention, negotiate the rates

53:36

back and forth, usually over like

53:37

multiple rounds of negotiation,

53:39

negotiate and redline the language. And

53:41

that's another place where we found

53:42

Python is great. These models are

53:44

terrible at editing Word documents, but

53:45

if you tell them to write Python to edit

53:47

a Word document, they're great at it.

53:50

Great hack. Um, and then sign the

53:52

agreement. And so she now signs the

53:54

agreements with my signature. She'll

53:55

open up the docyign link and then click

53:57

the button and it's my signature on that

54:00

agreement. And so this has taken us from

54:01

doing about a 100 contracts a week to

54:04

about 100 contracts a day.

54:07

And the last year as an entire team we

54:10

did 2,300 contracts. So far in about the

54:13

last 8 weeks the agent alone has done

54:16

3500. And so what this is letting us do

54:19

is like that team doesn't go to zero.

54:23

We've refocused that team to work on

54:25

these bigger contracts, right? Because

54:28

some of these deals we can do entirely

54:30

over email. This agent is email only.

54:32

And some of these providers will work

54:34

completely over email to enter into an

54:35

agreement. And actually, how many of

54:36

them will do the whole thing over email

54:38

surprised me. There's a lot of

54:39

millennials I guess on the other end

54:41

that don't want to get on the phone um

54:43

and would rather do the whole

54:44

negotiation completely electronically,

54:46

which is fantastic because the model is

54:48

great at that. [snorts] But some of

54:49

them, the bigger hospital systems, the

54:51

bigger doctors uh doctor groups, they

54:54

want to have a phone call. They want to

54:56

meet in person. They want to learn who

54:58

we are. And the team now get to spend

55:01

their time going and having those

55:03

inerson meetings, going and developing

55:05

those relationships, working with those

55:06

bigger groups. And then even when it

55:08

gets to the paperwork, handing the

55:09

paperwork off to the model and then all

55:11

of the smaller the individual PCP over

55:13

here, the small behavioral health

55:14

provider here, the therapist over here,

55:16

the agent just gets it done and can sign

55:19

a contract end to end in a few hours

55:22

where you wouldn't be able to do that

55:24

volume with people. Given the

55:26

transformational nature of what you're

55:28

describing, if Anthropic doubled their

55:31

price, would it impact your usage? When

55:35

we look at a lot of the financials of

55:36

these core businesses today,

55:38

>> yeah,

55:38

>> they are challenged businesses in their

55:40

current infrastructure and pricing.

55:43

>> If they double pricing, would it stay

55:44

the same?

55:45

>> If I say yes, I don't want our anthropic

55:47

rep to double our pricing. [laughter]

55:49

>> But it would

55:50

>> it would work. It would be fine. Yeah.

55:51

So, it costs with people, it cost us

55:53

about $1,500 to $2,000 on average to do

55:56

a contract. Um, the average with Gwen

55:59

has been about $70.

56:02

So it would still work fine. Um and so

56:06

that's what we've seen is like partly

56:07

why the token use has exploded for us.

56:09

>> Am I being a complete idiot then? But

56:11

then if they 5x their pricing if you

56:13

went on the labor displacement theory,

56:15

>> it would still work.

56:17

>> It would still work. I think what

56:19

they're betting and what also we've seen

56:21

is you don't just displace the labor. So

56:24

here like I think contracting is a

56:26

perfect example. We've not said okay

56:28

we're doing 100 a week so we'll get the

56:30

agent to do 100 a week. What we've done

56:32

is said, "Well, now that we have the

56:33

agent, we can do 10 times as many

56:35

contracts this year as we could do last

56:38

year. So, we're going to do 10 times and

56:39

then we're going to try and do 20 times

56:40

and we would just do a lot more volume

56:43

than you could possibly have done with a

56:45

human team."

56:46

>> Everyone's like, "Oh, I lose my job.

56:47

Lose my jobs." Do you think that's

56:49

warranted?

56:50

>> I think for a lot of these back office

56:53

jobs, yes, because

56:54

>> So, how how do we determine between I'm

56:57

just going to do more?

56:58

>> Yeah. A lot of people say with

56:59

developers, we're not going to get rid

57:00

of developers. There's an insatiable

57:02

appetite for more software, better

57:04

software.

57:05

>> That side I do agree with. I think

57:07

>> how do we determine between functions

57:08

where we'll do more versus we'll be

57:10

replaced.

57:11

>> So what we've tried to kind of

57:12

differentiate at curative is there's

57:14

like two areas where we're really

57:16

investing in people. That's technical

57:19

skills and relationships. Those are two

57:22

aspects that I don't see going away

57:24

anytime soon is we still have a team

57:27

that are actually deploying all of this

57:29

AI. They use a ton of AI in all of their

57:31

day-to-day work, right? They're not

57:32

writing any code anymore. They're not

57:34

even reading the code anymore. They're

57:36

deploying all of this with cloud code or

57:37

codecs. Um, and seeing like incredible

57:41

results out of one senior engineer now

57:43

is so much more productive than they

57:45

were a year ago that we're investing in

57:48

having those people. At the same time,

57:50

there's a side particularly to health

57:52

insurance that is relationship driven

57:54

that I don't see as going away anytime

57:56

soon. Ultimately, we ensure a member and

57:59

that member wants to be able to call and

58:01

talk to a person. We have a lot of AI

58:03

they can talk to. The AI is great. They

58:05

love talking to the AI, but there has to

58:07

be a person somewhere in the loop. We

58:09

also work with these provider groups. We

58:11

have a relationship with that provider

58:13

group that we're providing a chunk of

58:15

your revenue. You know, we work with

58:17

you, you work with us. There's a

58:19

relationship aspect there that has to be

58:20

maintained particularly for the larger

58:22

groups by a person and then on the sales

58:24

side we sell through a broker and that

58:28

broker wants to have a finalist

58:30

presentation. They want to go to dinner.

58:32

They want to go and play golf and so

58:35

what we've seen is on the sales side

58:37

like that relationship is if anything

58:40

more powerful. Do you think they still

58:42

will in 5 years? A lot of people talk

58:43

about agent agent transactions and how

58:46

that changes the process. Do you think

58:47

we will still have that heavy

58:48

relationship interpersonal cell in 5 10

58:51

years? I think on in in some aspects yes

58:55

because I think in some aspects that's

58:57

kind of becomes the foundation of trust

59:00

and it's like almost the scarce resource

59:02

right of if you want to do a deal that's

59:04

important then you're going to use your

59:06

scarce resource of people to manage that

59:08

as almost like

59:11

>> it's also the bigger the contract

59:14

>> the more important it is to have the the

59:15

whites of the eyes and the trust in the

59:18

relationship

59:18

>> and and most of these contracts right

59:20

most employers even our smallest

59:22

employers is it's a million-doll

59:23

contract at least.

59:24

>> I always think they like when you look

59:25

at accountants and lawyers and a lot of

59:27

the people who bluntly could be

59:28

replacing some of the more simple

59:29

especially NBAs or

59:31

>> but you would never not have a law firm

59:33

do it because if it goes wrong they're

59:35

getting fired.

59:37

>> Yeah. But I think I I I think you'll see

59:40

it work differently though where I mean

59:42

what we're seeing with with Gwen is we

59:44

had a contract a standard template

59:47

contract that was drafted by a law firm

59:49

and then we have kind of like guardrails

59:51

for what Gwen can agree to. But she just

59:53

redlines it and then signs it. She

59:56

doesn't it doesn't go to a law firm for

59:58

review. Like we're signing hundreds of

59:59

these contracts a day. It would be too

1:00:00

encumbering. It would be too slow and

1:00:02

they would just be reviewing with AI

1:00:04

anyway. So we kind of trust the agent to

1:00:07

do that legal review within certain

1:00:09

parameters.

1:00:10

>> In 3 years time, knowing what you do now

1:00:13

about the capabilities that you use it

1:00:15

for, how big do you think anthropic will

1:00:17

be?

1:00:18

>> A lot bigger than they are today.

1:00:19

>> Do you think it could be 5 trillion?

1:00:21

>> I think it could be 10 trillion.

1:00:26

>> Bugger. [ __ ] [laughter]

1:00:29

>> Is just extraordinary, isn't it?

1:00:31

>> Yeah. because I think you just find all

1:00:33

these new things that you can do that

1:00:34

you just couldn't do before that it like

1:00:36

wasn't possible to do. So Gwen is

1:00:39

sending on average 15,000 emails a day.

1:00:42

Customized emails to providers that know

1:00:45

about their practice, that know about

1:00:46

their work, and one of the things we

1:00:48

found is like that relentlessness of the

1:00:50

follow-up is what works. A lot of

1:00:52

providers will get them on the ninth

1:00:54

email. There's no way that a human is

1:00:56

going to email them nine times because

1:00:58

you know people that's like you have to

1:01:00

kind of have no shame to reach out that

1:01:02

many times.

1:01:02

>> Do you want to hear something funny? You

1:01:04

mentioned Salesforce. I got Mark Benny

1:01:05

off on the show cuz I emailed him 53

1:01:07

times [laughter] once every week for a

1:01:11

year and a week.

1:01:12

>> There we go.

1:01:13

>> I'm basically an AI model. I lost my

1:01:16

personality.

1:01:16

>> Very effective AI model.

1:01:18

>> That is extraordinary.

1:01:19

>> But that works so well in sales and it's

1:01:21

and and the best sales people will will

1:01:23

do that. But it's really hard to scale

1:01:25

that and you end up getting people that

1:01:27

reach out three times then give up.

1:01:29

>> Yeah.

1:01:29

>> And when you're trying to scale

1:01:30

something up if you can scale up that

1:01:33

relentlessness like that is really

1:01:36

valuable.

1:01:36

>> So you fundamentally buy the companies

1:01:38

will be inherently smaller in the future

1:01:40

and that's why we're seeing layoffs.

1:01:41

>> Yes.

1:01:42

>> Are layoffs today just an excuse for

1:01:45

overhiring in 2021 and 2022?

1:01:47

>> I think it's a mix. Yeah,

1:01:48

>> I mean I think there is definitely some

1:01:49

of that and you know it's also companies

1:01:52

are seeing valuation boosts by doing it.

1:01:54

So that's incentivizing maybe bad

1:01:56

behavior but some of it for sure is that

1:02:00

these workflows are changing.

1:02:02

>> How big are you today?

1:02:03

>> We're about 650 people now.

1:02:05

>> How big will we be in 5 years time?

1:02:08

>> Well, in 5 years we'll probably be

1:02:10

bigger. In the short term I think we're

1:02:12

going to be quite a bit smaller.

1:02:14

>> Smaller?

1:02:14

>> Yeah. We're not done yet with all of

1:02:17

these backend workflows.

1:02:18

>> How does that go to 400?

1:02:20

>> Uh somewhere [clears throat] around

1:02:22

there.

1:02:22

>> Wow.

1:02:23

>> There's some aspects of the business

1:02:24

that are are clinical workflows. Uh so

1:02:27

all of our members get a care navigator

1:02:29

um who stays with them for their entire

1:02:31

journey and that is just going to grow

1:02:33

linearly with our membership. So we want

1:02:35

you to have that human point of contact

1:02:37

that is available. But the care

1:02:39

navigators are now getting significantly

1:02:41

more useful because they can actually

1:02:43

use the agents to do a lot of the

1:02:45

follow-up on their behalf and they're

1:02:47

not having to remember to reach out to

1:02:49

this diabetic member every week about X.

1:02:51

They can kind of manage it at a

1:02:53

population scale. And so there we're

1:02:55

like keeping the same headcount relative

1:02:57

to our membership growth, but just

1:03:00

letting them do so much more than they

1:03:01

could do before.

1:03:02

>> That's amazing. I was speaking to a

1:03:03

major airline where they were saying

1:03:04

actually about exactly that that like

1:03:05

premium care customer service where it's

1:03:08

like they're able to give so much more

1:03:09

for your recommendations for you and

1:03:11

your wife's trip to New York and

1:03:14

everything's so perfected and tailored

1:03:16

because all the [ __ ] that they used

1:03:17

to do is gone and for you as the end

1:03:19

consumer it's amazing

1:03:20

>> and the response time the response time

1:03:22

is so much better

1:03:23

>> you get a response back in a few minutes

1:03:24

that's that's the usual place where we

1:03:26

see people ask Gwen if she's an AI is um

1:03:29

when she responds to your email within 5

1:03:31

minutes because in healthcare. If you

1:03:32

get a response same week from an

1:03:34

insurance company, you're doing so well.

1:03:36

>> And people think that I'm an AI because

1:03:37

I respond very quickly on email and to

1:03:40

the point I'm like, no, I just have no

1:03:41

life. [laughter]

1:03:43

>> You said about kind of the different

1:03:44

data inputs like, oh, you can just send

1:03:45

us anything now. I always was like data

1:03:48

cleansing, data structures would be the

1:03:50

biggest inhibitor to enterprise adoption

1:03:52

of AI. Is that totally wrong [ __ ]

1:03:54

VC?

1:03:56

I think if you approach it in the right

1:03:58

way, then the cleanliness doesn't really

1:04:00

matter that much because the models are

1:04:01

so good at cleaning up the data if you

1:04:03

give them the right context. And so

1:04:05

that's one of the things we found

1:04:06

actually with migrating away from some

1:04:07

of these SAS vendors is uh we we moved

1:04:11

away from Looker um right Google's

1:04:14

Looker product for visualizations. It's

1:04:16

super expensive. Um and we moved to do

1:04:19

it in Snowflake um and it's been a lot

1:04:23

cheaper. It's worked really well. Part

1:04:24

of that migration is moving all of our

1:04:27

dashboards and all of the things that

1:04:29

fed from Looker would have taken like

1:04:32

probably like a year and a whole bunch

1:04:33

of engineers and data scientists. Uh we

1:04:36

did most of it with an agentic workflow

1:04:38

that would spin up, find the next

1:04:41

dashboard, figure out how to convert it

1:04:43

into what we needed and then close it

1:04:45

down on the Looker side and boot it up

1:04:47

on the other side. And it ended up being

1:04:49

like a project for uh one or two people.

1:04:52

And it took it still took a couple of

1:04:53

months, but it was a lot more doable

1:04:55

because we didn't have to have somebody

1:04:58

ingest or like figure out that data. You

1:05:00

can just feed that data into a model and

1:05:02

let it figure out how to structure it

1:05:04

going forward.

1:05:05

>> It's just really interesting cuz I you

1:05:06

know I often think about what role does

1:05:07

not exist today that will be massive in

1:05:09

5 years time. And I thought like data

1:05:11

cleansing would be one of those roles.

1:05:14

If I asked you what role does not exist

1:05:16

today that you think will be very big in

1:05:18

5 years time, what would you say? agent

1:05:21

supervisor.

1:05:22

>> What does that mean?

1:05:23

>> One of the things we've found that's

1:05:25

been like a bottleneck is when you

1:05:27

launch these agent workflows, there's

1:05:29

always things that they you don't want

1:05:32

to let it do everything, right? So, like

1:05:34

with our contracting or our sales

1:05:35

workflow, like there's a certain margin

1:05:37

threshold where the sales agent can't

1:05:40

promise a client that we'll do it at

1:05:42

that margin, but we don't necessarily

1:05:44

want it to say no. we want to make a

1:05:47

business decision about whether this is

1:05:49

the right thing to do for that client.

1:05:51

>> Um, and so you end up generating this

1:05:54

like massive list of approval requests

1:05:57

that is now much longer than it would

1:05:59

have been because you're doing 10 times

1:06:00

as much work. So you're now getting even

1:06:03

if you're only getting an approval

1:06:04

request 1% of the time, you're still

1:06:06

getting 10% or 10 times as many as you

1:06:08

were last year. And so one of the things

1:06:09

we found is like actually how do you

1:06:11

manage all of those exceptions that now

1:06:15

become like a really high volume. So we

1:06:17

tried agents supervising agents which I

1:06:20

think works to a degree and maybe as the

1:06:22

models get better as well you can also

1:06:24

have like a more expensive right like if

1:06:27

we ever get mythos and it costs $100 per

1:06:30

million tokens you probably wouldn't use

1:06:32

it for the core workflow but you could

1:06:34

maybe use it as a supervisor

1:06:37

but how you actually manage those agents

1:06:39

at scale with like the volume of

1:06:40

exceptions that they generate um because

1:06:42

you don't want them just rubber stamping

1:06:44

yes or no either way like you need a

1:06:45

more nuanced decision there.

1:06:48

>> If you were advising your younger

1:06:50

brother or sister on how to prepare for

1:06:52

that role, what would you advise them to

1:06:54

do to be adequately skilled to do that?

1:06:58

>> I think just play with the models. Like

1:07:01

I think a lot of people severely

1:07:02

underestimate what they're capable of.

1:07:05

um because maybe they like tried ChatGBT

1:07:07

two years ago

1:07:10

[snorts] and and it like they're moving

1:07:11

so fast and they're so much better than

1:07:13

they were even six months ago that if

1:07:15

you're not like relentlessly trying them

1:07:17

then you're going to significantly

1:07:19

underestimate and then also like where

1:07:20

they are today is not where they're

1:07:21

going to be clearly in a few years. So

1:07:24

you got to skate to where the puck is

1:07:25

going to be.

1:07:26

>> Where will they be in a few years?

1:07:28

>> Ahead of humans on most capabilities.

1:07:32

>> Are you excited? [laughter]

1:07:33

Yes, cuz I think that opens up so many

1:07:35

possibilities like unlimited

1:07:38

intelligence.

1:07:39

>> Are you not worried about in the short

1:07:41

term societal unrest, labor displacement

1:07:44

and what that will do to a hollowing out

1:07:46

an inequality increase in the US?

1:07:49

>> I think that can be dealt with by

1:07:51

significant action whether or not we do

1:07:53

that or not.

1:07:54

>> What significant action would you do to

1:07:56

mitigate that?

1:07:57

>> I mean, I think eventually some version

1:07:59

of universal basic income.

1:08:01

>> Really?

1:08:01

>> Yeah. and you buy that works.

1:08:03

>> I mean, I think we have to build the

1:08:04

social structures that give those people

1:08:06

purpose and meaning outside of work

1:08:10

because I don't think that we're going

1:08:11

to have and I also I don't think that's

1:08:13

a bad thing. Like a lot of these

1:08:15

mid-level jobs that are being replaced

1:08:17

are awful jobs. They're people sitting

1:08:18

at a desk with like fluorescent lamps

1:08:21

shining at their face reviewing random

1:08:24

paperwork. Like that's not what people

1:08:27

like, you know, when you're little and

1:08:29

you say, "What do you want to be when

1:08:30

you grow up?" I want to sit in an office

1:08:31

and rubber stamp insurance forms. Like

1:08:33

it's not a good job.

1:08:35

>> I would be worried if my child.

1:08:36

[laughter]

1:08:37

>> Right. So these are not like it's not

1:08:39

like you're taking some like super

1:08:41

aspirational thing away from people. I

1:08:43

think these are jobs that we'll look

1:08:45

back and say, "God, I can't believe we

1:08:47

had people doing that kind of work.

1:08:48

That's crazy."

1:08:49

>> You know, I I walk with my mother a lot

1:08:51

and I always say my job is to invest in

1:08:53

the things that we say, "God, I can't

1:08:55

believe we used to do it that way." I

1:08:57

[laughter] said, "Do you remember? I

1:08:58

would never put my credit card on the

1:08:59

internet or you'd never find your like

1:09:02

husband on the internet.

1:09:04

>> You'd never get in a stranger's car and

1:09:06

uh and have them drive you where you

1:09:07

want to go.

1:09:07

>> What is insane today that will be

1:09:09

incredibly d obviously you have your

1:09:11

card online, obviously you meet your

1:09:12

partner online. What is insane today

1:09:15

that you think will be like obviously in

1:09:17

10 years? I think empowering agents to

1:09:19

do things on your behalf. Like we've

1:09:22

seen internally getting the team I think

1:09:25

like uh Isaac our our CTO and co-founder

1:09:28

and I have like trusted the agents

1:09:29

faster than most of the team and we're

1:09:31

okay like giving the agent authority to

1:09:33

do things like it was a big internal

1:09:35

dispute getting the agent to sign these

1:09:38

contracts. So the agent opens Docu Sign

1:09:40

and clicks the sign button and it's

1:09:42

legally binding and it has my signature

1:09:44

on the page. And getting that like

1:09:47

figured out internally was very it took

1:09:52

a lot of rounds of convincing people

1:09:53

that that was okay and that we could do

1:09:55

that. And so I think it will take time

1:09:58

for people to trust these agents with

1:10:01

stuff like you know give it your credit

1:10:02

card and let it go book a a holiday,

1:10:05

right? like getting getting people to

1:10:06

trust

1:10:09

it acting on your behalf I think will

1:10:11

take longer

1:10:12

>> but I'm thrilled that you signed me your

1:10:13

house for $12.

1:10:16

>> Uh do you worry about the concentration

1:10:18

of value when you look at the Mag 7

1:10:21

providing 85% of gains here today in

1:10:23

stock markets and then anthropic open AI

1:10:27

maybe one or two more. Do you worry

1:10:29

about that concentration of value? I'm

1:10:32

quite bullish now because I think a lot

1:10:34

of what's going on in AI is going to

1:10:36

massively boost earnings in other areas

1:10:38

of the economy that have struggled to

1:10:39

grow earnings any other way. Like if

1:10:41

you're health insurance,

1:10:42

>> like health insurance, like how do you

1:10:43

grow health insurance earnings? Well,

1:10:44

it's been or you go chase government

1:10:46

business and you pay a bunch of

1:10:47

lobbyists to get the government to

1:10:49

overpay for care. That's all now

1:10:50

backfired and all the government

1:10:52

business, Medicare and Medicaid is now

1:10:53

like a bad business and they're all

1:10:55

losing money. Everybody has insurance.

1:10:58

So unless you're going to increase the

1:11:00

total spending, how do you grow

1:11:02

earnings? Well, if you can make it more

1:11:03

efficient so you're not spending 9% of

1:11:06

your premium on admin tasks, that's a

1:11:09

way you can grow earnings without having

1:11:12

to deliver a worse product.

1:11:13

>> You're in a really good business as well

1:11:15

cuz it's like unwaveringly not in the

1:11:17

path of the model providers as well.

1:11:19

>> Yes, I not going to start an insurance

1:11:21

company. in the past like we're big

1:11:23

invest in wallets which is like business

1:11:25

[clears throat] banking like anthropics

1:11:26

is not going into business banking

1:11:28

>> in Southeast Asia [laughter]

1:11:30

>> I would be surprised I think things that

1:11:32

have some like regulation around them

1:11:34

and are like complex industries yes

1:11:36

they're going to see the advantages of

1:11:37

the models but they're not going to see

1:11:39

competition from anthropic or open AAI

1:11:42

>> I totally get that when I listen to you

1:11:43

I'm like Jesus if I was you I'd also

1:11:45

take a chunk of my money and invest it

1:11:47

actively into anthropic um can I ask you

1:11:51

have you taken secondaries along the

1:11:52

way?

1:11:54

>> Uh no, no, we haven't sold any

1:11:55

secondaries. We did uh there was a

1:11:57

dividend at the end of co we paid out

1:11:59

some uh all the investors got uh 10x

1:12:01

their money back uh before we started

1:12:03

the health insurance company and then

1:12:04

they still have their shares today.

1:12:06

>> We haven't sold any secondaries now.

1:12:08

>> Are you [ __ ] serious? They got 10x

1:12:10

their money back and then they kept the

1:12:12

shares.

1:12:12

>> We didn't have that many investors but

1:12:14

yes they they all did well.

1:12:16

>> That is an amazing deal. [laughter]

1:12:19

10x and then you keep the shares. Yeah.

1:12:22

>> What?

1:12:24

>> Well, I think that's why we've seen them

1:12:25

double down, right? It's like they made

1:12:27

money with us before and so, you know,

1:12:29

this last round was was led by insiders.

1:12:32

>> And how big was the last round?

1:12:34

>> 150 million.

1:12:35

>> What was the prize?

1:12:36

>> 1.3 billion.

1:12:38

>> Wow. Nice round actually. Not too much

1:12:40

dilution. Enough that it's really

1:12:42

impactful cashwise to come in.

1:12:44

>> Yeah.

1:12:45

>> Wow, dude. That's insane. So, can I ask

1:12:48

you then personally? I asked this

1:12:50

actually, do you know Josh Browder? He's

1:12:51

another Brit in the valley. Okay. Um, a

1:12:54

phenomenal guy, but like when you look

1:12:56

at your personal allocation today, given

1:12:59

our insider access and what we know,

1:13:02

>> is there anything funky that you do with

1:13:04

your money

1:13:04

>> outside of of curative? Yeah,

1:13:07

>> I invest primarily in companies of

1:13:09

people that I know and I do very little

1:13:12

investing if I don't know the founders.

1:13:14

>> Does that work well?

1:13:16

It's had mixed results, but some of them

1:13:19

are too early to tell. Some of them are

1:13:20

the best investment.

1:13:22

>> Um,

1:13:24

they're all they're all a bit too early

1:13:25

to to tell. [laughter]

1:13:27

>> Do you have any energy investments?

1:13:30

>> Uh, yes. So, there is a company that um

1:13:32

I co-founded with my wife, Subcritical,

1:13:36

that is um in the nuclear fision space.

1:13:39

So, this was based on an an idea that I

1:13:41

had a few years ago that um we need more

1:13:46

power and that nuclear is a really good

1:13:47

way to do this. Uh and it started off

1:13:49

actually as looking for an investment.

1:13:51

This was like one of my f first times I

1:13:52

was like we should find a company that's

1:13:54

doing nuclear power and try and invest

1:13:58

in it and see if we can make it go

1:13:59

faster. Um because I kind of thought

1:14:03

I'm pretty good at making things go

1:14:04

faster in really regulated spaces. Like

1:14:06

that's kind of what I'm what I'm good

1:14:07

at.

1:14:07

>> That's your thing. Yeah, that's my

1:14:09

thing. You know, everybody's got to have

1:14:10

a thing.

1:14:12

>> And so,

1:14:12

>> is that your hook on the first date?

1:14:14

Regulated industries make a good first

1:14:16

hook on our first date. So, after our

1:14:18

first date, we both shared our genome

1:14:19

files with each other, our VCF like um

1:14:23

and so she said she'd done this before

1:14:25

and the guy thought it was really

1:14:27

strange and we both were like, "Oh, we

1:14:29

should share our genomes and then, you

1:14:31

know, compared and check that we were

1:14:33

compatible so it was worth having a

1:14:34

second date." And we were both totally

1:14:36

into that. So, we We knew it was meant

1:14:38

to be. We were compatible by genome.

1:14:40

>> We have two beautiful kids, so we uh we

1:14:43

knew it was meant to be.

1:14:44

>> I'm sorry. If you're incompatible by

1:14:45

genome, you have like a

1:14:47

>> If you both have like the same

1:14:49

>> You have a ginger child.

1:14:52

>> Well, that was a concern. My brother is

1:14:54

ginger. So, I carry the ginger.

1:14:55

>> My brother is ginger, too. Yeah.

1:14:57

>> We We don't see him anymore. We took him

1:14:59

to the woods and said, "Run free."

1:15:01

>> Makes sense. Yeah. [laughter] So, I do

1:15:03

carry the ginger gene. And if she had

1:15:05

carried the ginger gene, that would have

1:15:06

been a deep concern. but she luckily

1:15:08

doesn't. And so that was that was one of

1:15:09

the key tests.

1:15:10

>> You progressed to the second date.

1:15:12

>> Yes. So we made it to the second date.

1:15:13

>> What does no one know about nuclear that

1:15:15

everyone should know about nuclear?

1:15:18

>> That it is very safe. I think and that

1:15:21

it's not a science or engineering

1:15:23

problem. Like that was when when we

1:15:25

started looking at companies to invest

1:15:26

in that was for me that the thing that I

1:15:29

was sort of disappointed by is everybody

1:15:31

was approaching it as if nuclear is this

1:15:33

massive engineering challenge. And sure

1:15:35

like the engineering is hard. It is

1:15:38

complicated. But fundamentally we have

1:15:40

built safe nuclear reactors since the

1:15:42

60s. They work great. The technology has

1:15:45

not really changed or progressed since

1:15:47

then. We know how to build these. That's

1:15:48

not the problem. The problem is that due

1:15:52

to a lot of the anti-uclear push in the

1:15:54

80s, we have had a regulatory

1:15:57

environment that has been incredibly

1:15:59

restrictive and difficult to get new

1:16:01

nuclear reactors built particularly in

1:16:04

the US but also worldwide. Uh there's

1:16:07

been this push to say how do you

1:16:08

guarantee that under any possible

1:16:10

circumstance like once in a million-year

1:16:13

events that you will never have anything

1:16:14

go wrong. And in traditional nuclear

1:16:17

that is very hard to guarantee. In

1:16:20

traditional nuclear one of the reasons

1:16:21

it's difficult you're basically

1:16:22

balancing on this knife edge. So in a

1:16:25

reactor you have uh what's called

1:16:27

criticality right which is where you

1:16:29

have to produce enough neutrons each

1:16:31

generation that they go off and do

1:16:33

exactly one more reaction and it keeps

1:16:35

itself going. If you get too much of

1:16:38

that too many neutrons it's a bomb,

1:16:40

right? It will be a runaway reaction and

1:16:42

it will blow up. That's very bad. that's

1:16:44

only ever happened once by accident,

1:16:45

which is Chernobyl. Um, all the others

1:16:49

have been not criticality events. Um, so

1:16:52

you don't want that. If it happens not

1:16:54

enough, then it just turns off. So if

1:16:56

you go too far below this exact 1.0

1:16:59

threshold, you get no power out. And so

1:17:01

you're trying to balance perfectly on

1:17:03

that knife edge of exactly 1.0 where you

1:17:05

can control it. And that is a hard

1:17:08

problem to guarantee. And this is the

1:17:10

fundamental issue with nuclear

1:17:11

regulation. How do you guarantee that

1:17:13

under no possible circumstances will you

1:17:15

deviate from that perfect control?

1:17:18

And so I was initially pretty

1:17:19

disheartened. I was like, well, we're

1:17:21

not going to get new nuclear power. This

1:17:22

is not going to work. And then I

1:17:24

stumbled on this idea of what's called

1:17:26

the energy amplifier. And it's not a new

1:17:28

technology. It's been around since like

1:17:30

the late ' 80s, early 90s. It was really

1:17:32

pushed by a guy Kar Rubia who used to be

1:17:35

the CERN director. He was a new uh Nobel

1:17:37

laurat in physics. And the idea is you

1:17:40

always operate below that 1.0 threshold.

1:17:44

So we are designed to operate at 0.97.

1:17:46

So that means you never have enough

1:17:48

neutrons to keep the reaction going. The

1:17:50

reaction will always fizzle out. So no

1:17:52

matter what you do, it's going to fizzle

1:17:54

out. But normally that would mean you

1:17:55

get no power output. What you do in the

1:17:57

energy amplifier is you point a really

1:17:59

powerful particle accelerator at that

1:18:02

fuel and that puts in the extra neutrons

1:18:05

to drive the reaction forward. But if

1:18:06

you turn that accelerator off, all of

1:18:08

your energy output just stops. And so

1:18:10

you basically have this big onoff switch

1:18:11

where you can control fision and you can

1:18:14

guarantee that no matter what you do to

1:18:16

it, the fision will never run away. Even

1:18:18

if you put in 10 times as much power

1:18:19

from the accelerator, it will never run

1:18:22

away. There's nothing you can do to it

1:18:23

to cause it to go critical or to have a

1:18:25

criticality accident. And so it's a

1:18:27

fundamentally safer way of doing nuclear

1:18:29

fision that is

1:18:33

just approaching it from a different

1:18:34

angle. How will the composition of our

1:18:37

energy providing change in the next 5 to

1:18:39

10 years? Like will nuclear be a

1:18:41

demonstrabably larger part of energy

1:18:43

provision than it is today?

1:18:44

>> Yes, I think what we're seeing kind of

1:18:46

all across the supply chain in nuclear

1:18:48

is a push to get more nuclear online. Um

1:18:51

and I think you know Subcritical is kind

1:18:53

of leading the way there with a faster

1:18:55

path to market than any of the other

1:18:57

players. Uh but there's a lot of people

1:18:59

working on deploying a lot of new

1:19:00

nuclear power

1:19:01

>> which current provision will diminish

1:19:04

significantly.

1:19:06

>> Um I mean I think any power from coal

1:19:09

will will mostly go away. I think you're

1:19:11

still going to see a lot of gas just

1:19:13

because particularly in the US it's

1:19:14

cheap, it works, it's fast, but I think

1:19:18

coal is going to go away. Um and then

1:19:20

you're just going to see more of

1:19:21

everything. What company will be larger,

1:19:24

curative or subcritical?

1:19:27

>> Subcritical. Yeah.

1:19:28

>> Or subcritical.

1:19:29

>> That's a great question. Um, curative

1:19:31

has a larger market opportunity, but I

1:19:33

think they're both

1:19:33

>> has a larger market opportunity.

1:19:35

>> Yeah. I think they're both, you know,

1:19:37

>> power generation.

1:19:38

>> Yeah. The uh US spends or US employers

1:19:42

spend $1 half trillion dollars a year on

1:19:43

healthcare, which is that's our like

1:19:45

direct TAM every single year.

1:19:47

>> How much does the US spend on energy?

1:19:49

through energy that can be addressed

1:19:51

through um through nuclear. It's a

1:19:54

similar order of magnitude.

1:19:56

>> I mean, you chose good ts.

1:19:57

>> They're both they're both yield

1:19:59

optimization. I feel like you've really

1:20:01

really taken this

1:20:02

>> I figured out the TAM thing. [laughter]

1:20:03

No, they're both like trillion dollar

1:20:05

opportunities if we execute right.

1:20:08

>> [ __ ]

1:20:08

>> Yeah.

1:20:11

>> Wow. We're also seeing AI on the on the

1:20:13

nuclear side in the design

1:20:16

>> because design is like traditionally a

1:20:18

thing that is done by a whole bunch of

1:20:20

people sitting doing drawings and

1:20:23

mechanical engineering

1:20:24

>> and the models have gotten really good

1:20:26

at that. And so we're seeing that you

1:20:29

can do the design with far fewer people

1:20:31

using AI to optimize a lot of the design

1:20:34

parameters where historically you might

1:20:36

have needed a hundred mechanical

1:20:37

engineers to design every single nut and

1:20:39

bolt and part. You can do it with with

1:20:42

20 really good mechanical engineers that

1:20:44

are designing the critical pieces, the

1:20:46

important pieces um and overseeing the

1:20:49

AI on like well I need a little bracket

1:20:51

that joins this piece to this piece that

1:20:53

doesn't need a human to design that. I

1:20:56

was actually meeting a company the other

1:20:57

day which basically said like you know

1:20:58

the challenge with hardware engineers is

1:21:00

they don't often know what software

1:21:01

engineering and the beauty of today is

1:21:03

like we've turned hardware engineers

1:21:04

into software engineers overnight.

1:21:06

>> Yeah.

1:21:07

>> And that's amazing.

1:21:07

>> Well, it's another place where we saw

1:21:09

like codegen as the solution and I think

1:21:11

you know this is one of the bets

1:21:12

anthropic made and they're totally right

1:21:14

on.

1:21:15

You can generate really good CAD models

1:21:17

by having it write Python to make the

1:21:18

CAD model. like it's not good at

1:21:21

necessarily good at like 3D space

1:21:23

visualization or outputting a drawing

1:21:26

um right as as vectors but it's really

1:21:29

really good at generating plausible

1:21:31

Python code that can draw that part.

1:21:34

>> It is the most exciting time to be alive

1:21:35

in many respects.

1:21:37

>> Yeah. Yeah. Well, that's why we ended up

1:21:38

starting Subcritical is I you know very

1:21:40

busy running curative but that was an

1:21:42

idea that was just too important to pass

1:21:45

up and there was nobody else. So uh the

1:21:49

only one that is under like active

1:21:51

construction of those systems is in

1:21:53

China based on a US design from the

1:21:56

2010s that the US stopped working on

1:21:58

after Fukushima.

1:21:59

>> How much money do you need to make

1:22:00

subcritical significant?

1:22:03

>> Uh well each one of our deployments

1:22:05

would be about a billion dollars of

1:22:07

construction cost for a 300 megawatt

1:22:09

facility. So it's but it's not you know

1:22:11

it wouldn't be the same like you

1:22:13

wouldn't raise that as equity. It would

1:22:14

be a mix into the plant of equity and

1:22:16

debt. So, it's a different kind of it's

1:22:19

more infrastructure build financing.

1:22:21

>> What do you know now about marriage that

1:22:23

you wish you'd known at the beginning?

1:22:24

Seriously, like it's an amazing thing to

1:22:26

build a company with your wife.

1:22:27

>> It's a challenging thing as well.

1:22:29

>> Yes.

1:22:30

>> How do you make it work?

1:22:33

>> So, I we're very well matched, I think,

1:22:34

is one of the things is we basically

1:22:36

never argue. And that's, you know, how I

1:22:38

knew very early on that it was meant to

1:22:40

be is we're always on the same page

1:22:42

about things. And so it's actually very

1:22:44

easy to run a company together uh

1:22:46

because we're we we usually see eye to

1:22:49

eye on like how something should be

1:22:50

done.

1:22:51

>> Fatherhood. You said two kids. Two kids.

1:22:54

Two and a halfyear-old and 6 months.

1:22:56

>> Anything that you would advise a new

1:22:58

father knowing what you know now?

1:23:00

>> You should definitely have kids. Don't

1:23:02

wait. I mean I think there's too much

1:23:04

like um sentiment of people. Oh, you

1:23:07

know, live your life and wait until

1:23:09

you're in your, you know, late 30s and

1:23:12

then have kids. I think no, like have

1:23:14

kids early when you're have the energy

1:23:17

and can run around and not sleep and

1:23:19

it's one of the best things you'll ever

1:23:21

do. You should just get on with it.

1:23:22

[laughter]

1:23:22

>> Okay, we're going to do a quick fire.

1:23:24

Sound good?

1:23:25

>> Yep.

1:23:25

>> Dude, that was the most uh twisting and

1:23:28

turning conversation ever from like the

1:23:29

proliferation of STDs to fatherhood and

1:23:32

nuclear. I mean, really, we crushed it.

1:23:34

What have you changed your mind on most

1:23:36

in the last 12 months?

1:23:38

>> I think probably a year ago I have

1:23:40

changed my mind that there are workflows

1:23:43

that can't be done with the models with

1:23:45

today's models. I think today the

1:23:48

current gen models can do every back

1:23:50

office task we have at curative it's

1:23:52

just a matter of deploying them like

1:23:54

getting them set up getting them

1:23:55

configured having the right policies and

1:23:58

and I think a year ago

1:24:01

I thought there was opportunity I

1:24:03

thought there was things we could do but

1:24:04

I don't think I would have said you

1:24:06

could do every single one of our current

1:24:08

back office flows

1:24:09

>> what one change would you make to Europe

1:24:11

if I made you president of Europe in

1:24:13

this very strange title to stay in the

1:24:16

brace for competitiveness.

1:24:18

>> Uh you have to have some kind of like

1:24:20

burden for passing regulation. There

1:24:21

needs to be some penalty. Like right now

1:24:23

you pass a regulation that's like okay

1:24:25

you you did a good job. Like the goal is

1:24:27

to pass regulation. There has to be some

1:24:29

penalty. Like the if you pass regulation

1:24:32

your country must pay some tax

1:24:33

additional tax for having passed that

1:24:35

regulation. just adding and adding and

1:24:36

adding uh without like refining what

1:24:39

you've got today and like really going

1:24:41

and digging in how is this regulation

1:24:43

affecting things on the ground like just

1:24:45

more additive regulation is bad. You

1:24:47

need to be looking at the effect of what

1:24:49

you've done and refining it and

1:24:51

iterating on it and not just trying to

1:24:53

add some new landmark regulation.

1:24:56

>> It's very anti-European Fred. You're not

1:24:57

going to [laughter] do anything. You're

1:24:58

not going to do very well here for a

1:24:59

reason. I mean, you know, I'm a Texan

1:25:01

now. Um, uh, Mark Benio said he spent

1:25:03

300 million on Anthropic. Equated across

1:25:05

the developers that they have, it works

1:25:07

out to be about 3.8% of developer salary

1:25:10

spent on Anthropic. What do you think

1:25:12

total percent of developer salary spend

1:25:15

will be on anthropic in 3 years time?

1:25:18

>> Between maybe two and 5x be the two and

1:25:21

5x salary. I think that's probably

1:25:23

>> 2 to 5x is the whole salary.

1:25:24

>> Yeah.

1:25:26

>> Whoa.

1:25:28

So from 3.8% 8% of salary to

1:25:30

>> Yeah. Because I think the way I mean the

1:25:31

way we're driving workflows is that you

1:25:34

have one senior engineer managing a

1:25:37

bunch of downstream agents that are

1:25:38

actually doing the work. And then we're

1:25:40

now getting to the point we have like

1:25:42

mostly unsupervised agents taking

1:25:44

feedback from the team on things,

1:25:46

implementing features, and then the the

1:25:49

engineers are coming in and actually

1:25:51

checking that what it built makes sense.

1:25:54

So they're becoming more the reviewer

1:25:56

and like the architect. And then you

1:25:59

have these downstream

1:26:01

>> doing the two to five. I mean that's not

1:26:03

like 3.8 to 20% [laughter] 50%. If it's

1:26:06

50% anthropics like a 20 trillion

1:26:09

company.

1:26:09

>> Yeah. I I think that that's what the

1:26:11

workflows will be is people are people

1:26:13

are going to be deploying more agents

1:26:15

than engineers

1:26:17

and they're going to keep the same

1:26:18

number of engineers. We're just going to

1:26:20

build a lot more.

1:26:21

>> Going to message my friend to let me

1:26:22

into that new anthropic round.

1:26:24

[laughter] Just message Larry. [snorts]

1:26:26

There we go. Uh, what's the kindest

1:26:29

thing anyone's ever done for you?

1:26:31

>> I think when I first was getting

1:26:32

started, there were a lot of people that

1:26:35

helped make it be possible to move to

1:26:37

the US and kind of like made a bet on a

1:26:40

kid coming from the north of England to

1:26:43

come to Silicon Valley. some of the

1:26:44

earliest investors. Um the guy Josh

1:26:48

Buckley who, you know, was one of the

1:26:50

first in guys who invested in us during

1:26:52

the YC batch

1:26:55

just because he liked what we were doing

1:26:57

and he thought it was it was cool. But,

1:26:59

you know, being willing to kind of take

1:27:01

a bet on a kid,

1:27:03

>> you know, Josh is like my best friend.

1:27:05

>> I didn't know that. I haven't seen him

1:27:07

in a while.

1:27:07

>> Yeah, I I say hi to him.

1:27:09

>> I I speak to Josh every single night.

1:27:12

>> Okay. uh barring say Christmas.

1:27:14

>> All right. Well, he he invested in cows.

1:27:17

>> That is amazing.

1:27:18

>> And then STDs.

1:27:20

[laughter and snorts]

1:27:20

>> Oh, you know,

1:27:22

investor Mark.

1:27:24

That's amazing. I didn't know that on

1:27:26

Josh.

1:27:27

>> Yeah. He like a month into the YC batch

1:27:30

like came by the lab and was like super

1:27:32

supportive of what we're doing. And I

1:27:34

think just coming from like the British

1:27:35

background, we couldn't even get

1:27:36

meetings with investors

1:27:37

>> and he was young. I mean,

1:27:39

>> he was Yes. But to get I mean he'd been

1:27:41

through YC and like had a successful

1:27:43

company and it was just awesome to like

1:27:45

have someone like that take a bet on

1:27:47

what you're doing. Coming from the UK

1:27:50

where I was used to like the cold

1:27:52

shoulder and no one was interested in

1:27:54

what I was building and you know no one

1:27:56

wanted to take a meeting. [laughter]

1:27:58

>> That makes me so happy to hear. Okay,

1:28:01

final one. What's the best advice that

1:28:03

you've been given? I think one thing

1:28:06

that I have learned is to always try and

1:28:10

get a lot of different perspectives on a

1:28:12

problem. Um I think I I would

1:28:15

historically have sort of approached

1:28:16

things from like one scientific

1:28:19

viewpoint and sometimes people would say

1:28:22

[clears throat] no like take a step back

1:28:24

and think about that problem more

1:28:26

broadly. And one of the things I learned

1:28:28

during the curative co push is we had to

1:28:31

bring together a bunch of people from

1:28:32

very different backgrounds. We hired a

1:28:33

bunch of former military people who were

1:28:36

just like incredible at deployment, but

1:28:38

they speak a different language. And

1:28:40

then we're trying to get them to talk to

1:28:42

scientists. And then we hired a bunch of

1:28:43

Silicon Valley developers. And they all

1:28:45

like think about the problem. They're

1:28:46

all trying to solve the problem, but

1:28:48

they all come at it from like a

1:28:50

completely different perspective. And a

1:28:51

lot of times I wouldn't have considered,

1:28:54

you know, that point of view on doing

1:28:55

it. And I think what I found is that the

1:28:58

more of those perspectives that you can

1:29:00

kind of get on a problem, the closer to

1:29:02

ground truth you get. Like you're never

1:29:04

gonna no not one of those people is

1:29:06

going to give you the ground truth. But

1:29:07

if you hear a lot of perspectives, you

1:29:09

can kind of get to that ground truth

1:29:11

faster.

1:29:12

>> Fred, that was the most extraordinary

1:29:14

show that I've ever done in

1:29:16

[clears throat] breadth, depth, uh,

1:29:19

variance of conversation. Thank you so

1:29:21

much for joining me and it's so great to

1:29:23

do it in person.

1:29:24

>> Yeah, thanks for having me.

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