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To make any decision in your life, you have to go through four stages. The first stage is your choices. The second stage is to analyze your choices. The third stage is to make the decision. And the fourth stage is to live with the decision. In each stage of this stage, you will encounter a problem called the villains of decision making. These four problems are narrow framing or narrow frame.
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The second one is confirmation bias The third one is short term emotions And finally overconfidence To solve these problems we need to apply something called RAP We will talk about RAP later But let's take every problem separately 1. Narrow framing
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There are many people who when they make a decision, they only choose one option, and this is called narrow framing. For example, when you buy a car, you ask yourself, "Should I buy this car or not?" You don't choose more than one option, and this is a problem that many people face.
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This problem was studied by Paul Nutt in his study at Ohio State University in the United States. He found that 70% of companies when they make any decision, they have only one option. He found that these companies fail by 52%. As for companies that have different options, their failure rate is only 32%.
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And the solution to this problem is called widen your options. We have more options. You feel that when you choose, you have a kind of comparison to these options to make a better decision. The problem is that when you have one option, you focus your mind on this option. And this is deepening the disadvantages of the options you have.
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For example, when you buy a car, instead of saying I will buy this car and not buy it, you put at least three types of cars to compare between them. This comparison makes you see the flaws in these cars and makes you make a better decision.
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But be careful not to put too many options on yourself so that you don't get what is called "decision paralysis" When you have too many options, you may have a state of paralysis that you can't make any decision because there are too many options and this makes you unable to decide what is right for you. 2. Confirmation bias
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Confirmation bias is the nature of a person to believe a certain information and interpret it in a way that is consistent with his beliefs and his thinking. For example, if you hear in the media that a certain company is not good or that a certain person is not good, when you hear bad news about this company or this person, you will believe him more than you will find good news about this person.
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Confirmation bias is in the second stage of decision making, which is the stage of analyzing options. Let's imagine that you want to study electrical engineering and you have three universities to choose from. When you choose from these universities, you may have a certain group of friends because you heard from one of your friends or heard on the media that this university is the best university for them.
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But maybe this university is not the best for you because you have confirmation bias And the solution to this is to do something called Reality Test your assumptions
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And you can do this by doing two things. The first thing is to consider the opposite. For example, if you think that a certain group is the best group, you must assume the opposite. You must assume that it is the worst group. And look for people who say that it is the worst group to see the disadvantages in it. The second thing you do is to zoom in and zoom out.
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Zoom out means that you look at things from the outside. You look at the proportions. For example, when you come to analyze the university you want to choose, you look at the evaluation of this university. As for zoom in, it means that you look at things in detailed detail. You see what people wrote about this university on the internet. And you see the people who actually entered the university. You ask them what their opinion is about the university. This will give you a comprehensive view of things and make you analyze your choices in a way
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3. Short term emotions After you have determined your choices and analyzed them, you will reach the third stage which is to make a decision. But the problem that many people face is that they may become victims of what is called short term emotions. Let's imagine that you heard a bad news in the newspaper. This news made you unhappy.
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On the same day, someone offered her to marry her. She might have refused this man and refused to meet him again because she wasn't happy on that day. Because she was upset and didn't feel that it was the time to marry. Although it is possible that this man is the best man to marry. It is possible that this is the right decision. But she relied on her feelings. That's why you have to avoid short-term feelings.
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This is called "Attain Distance Before Deciding" The solution is to do two things The first thing is called "10-10-10 Rule" This rule tells you that when you make any decision, think about it What will your feeling be after 10 minutes?
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What will your feeling be after 10 months from now? And what will your feeling be after 10 years from now? Simply, this law makes you think about the short, medium and long term. The second thing to make the right decision and avoid short term feelings is to think about the subject as if you are advising your friend.
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Because when you advise your friend, you always look at things in a different way. You don't have the feelings that your friend feels. You look at things from the outside. And this helps you make the right decision. 4. Overconfidence.
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We all remember Kodak Company Kodak Company is the most famous company for making movies that are popular to make our own movies Most of our memories and most of our pictures are related to this company Kodak Company was the leading company in making movies and cameras But Kodak Company had added confidence Confidence that the camera market that depends on movies that are popular will never be lost And that made it not to invest in the digital camera market
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Digital cameras are now out of the market and there is no such thing as a camera that relies on movies that are popular
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Kodak company announced its bankruptcy in 2011 because of the high trust. Although Kodak has been making the right decision for a long time and lived in great success, it has not always been looking for this decision whether it is right or whether it can be changed in the distant future. And to avoid high trust, we must do something called "Prepare to be wrong" or prepare ourselves to be wrong. And this is done by doing two things.
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The first thing is called set a trip wire. The trip wire is the thing that always makes you think that your decision can be right or wrong. That's why these trip wires are the things that always make you go back to your decision.
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For example, if Kodak company put a cloud for itself, it put for itself something that says that if 5% of the market started using digital cameras, we will also start investing in digital cameras and put our money in it because it is the future.
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If your company did this, you could now excel in many companies like Sony and Canon in the current camera market. And everyone can apply these rules by putting a certain date in which he will return any decision he makes. And this helps him to always avoid extra confidence in making any decision. The second thing to do to avoid extra confidence is to put two scenarios for yourself. A scenario for a big success and a scenario for a big failure.
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For example, if you have a company and you failed a big failure, you must put a scenario for yourself what you will do if you fail this failure Imagine yourself in this situation and put a plan for yourself how to get out of this problem At the same time, if you have a company and you succeed, you succeed more than you expected and this success may not be able to bear it because you may not be able to meet the customer's demands, so you can put a scenario for yourself what you will do if you succeed this success
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And we can summarize this episode in one word, which is the word RAP. RAP is Widen Your Options, which means widen your options. Reality Test Your Assumption, which means test your assumptions. Third thing is Attain Distance Before Deciding, which means take a distance before making any decision. And finally, Prepare to Be Wrong, which means prepare yourself to be wrong. If you can't remember the word RAP,
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Try to remember the rap of the sandwich And whenever you make any decision Remember this sandwich And always think about how to make the right decision
