美國選舉對黃金價格的影響

Hello everyone, I'm Terry. Today we're going to talk about the impact of the US election on the price of gold. In my previous video, I shared with you that the main purpose of gold is to fight inflation and uncertainty. It's mainly a asset that can be used to make a balance and to share your risk.

According to the past history, in a more turbulent period, especially during the war, gold often exceeded the stock market. And recently, the United Nations has also begun to implement its "Low-Income Goals" Plus China has also begun to "Low-Income" and begin to "Support" the stock market. In addition, in November this year, the United States is preparing to start a four-year presidential election. You can also see that there are still many wars in various parts of the world now, such as the war between Russia and Ukraine, the war between Israel and Hamas,

So with all the chaos happening at the same time and the situation of the red-light, the price of gold continues to rise. When I was recording, the price of gold's SPOT reached $2,740, which is also the highest price in history. As I mentioned in the previous video, investing in gold can effectively match the uncertainty in the market. And the return rate of gold in the long term is not too much lower than S&P500.

First, let's take a look at the impact of the historical global geopolitical event on the price of gold. In 1979, when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, the price of gold was significantly increased, creating a new historical height. Then came the 9/11 incident in 2001, and then the invasion of Afghanistan in the United States. Then came the Iraq War in 2003, which lasted for eight years. As you can see, the price of gold has also increased for several years. Then came the COVID-19 in 2019,

It happened at the end of 2019. Then came Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Until recently, the war between Israel and Hamas. We can clearly see the connection between the price of gold and these major geopolitical events. As for the topic of today's video, politics, let's see what impact the Democratic Party and Republican Party have on the price of gold in the United States.

This diagram summarizes the impact of the election on the price of gold in 2022. The leftmost diagram shows the six months before the election. The price of gold has slightly increased in general. The price of gold has also slightly increased in the six months after the election. But the standard difference is quite high. So we can't conclude whether the price of gold has any impact on the statistics before or after the election.

Let's continue to look down. If it was the year when the Republican Party was elected, on average, the price of gold in the first six months of the election is the highest. But it's still the same. This standard difference is too big. So it's hard to see that there is a positive relationship. On the contrary, if it was the year when the Democratic Party was elected, the price of gold in the first six months of the election will be the second highest. But this standard difference is also very big.

So the reference value is not very high. In addition, according to the statistics, during the time of the Republican administration, the average annual return on gold was 11.2%. During the time of the Democratic administration, the annual return on gold was about 10.2%.

So we can roughly summarize that the election of the ruling party does not affect the price of gold. It will not have a direct impact. And finally, the trend that really affects the price of gold is the decision of the ruling party after the election. Plus the whole red-clad art at that time is the trend that will mainly affect the price of gold.

Okay, now that we know the next plan for the US dollar is to keep the inflation rate at 2% If inflation rate can keep it at 2%, then the interest rate will keep going down And now many countries around the world have started to increase the pace of the decline The decline rate is even much faster than the US Like Canada and many European countries have actually started to suffer from this high interest rate environment Not to mention China, China itself has no interest rate

然后现在又开始要降更低 那我们来看一下美国这边呢 在每一次降息之后呢 它对黄金价格的走势通常有什么影响 那这张图呢 是在过去的20年黄金价格的走势 跟反向的10年真实利率的走势 真实利率是什么意思呢 真实利率的算法就是 10年国债的收益率减去当时的这个通胀百分比 就可以得到真实的利率

Why is this interest so important? This number represents how much the state-owned investor holds the state debt minus inflation. We can see in this picture that the black line is the opposite of the real interest rate. You can clearly see that

The price of gold is in contrast to the real 10-year national debt revenue rate I know you might think that this is the truth Why am I saying it's in contrast? Because this black line is the real 10-year national debt revenue rate So the real 10-year national debt revenue rate is the opposite of this line That is, it is the opposite of the gold price trend

这张图为什么要这样画呢? 其实就只是比较好帮助你去看清楚他们两者之间的关系。 那为什么黄金价格跟利率或是十年国债收益率呈反向关系呢? 每一次当利率上涨之后呢,黄金的价格通常会下跌, 因为持有黄金它本身不会带给你任何的利息或是股息。 所以当利率比较高的时候呢,钱自然就会流向那些比较稳定高收益的股息。

而當利率開始降下來 開始低的時候呢 這些國債反而就變得沒有那麼的誘人 那錢自然就會流向 像是黃金這樣的資產上面 那我們再來看另外一個 對黃金價格影響很深的變數呢 就是中國 全世界第二大的經濟體系

China has not fully recovered from the pandemic. It has become a deflationary state in many Western countries. In fact, deflationary is more terrible than inflation. Because the people are not willing to spend money, and the enterprises do not make money. So real estate companies have been shut down. The phenomenon of bad condos is getting worse. This led to the decision of the Chinese central bank to reduce the threshold of loans by the end of September this year.

continue to reduce the number of crazy banknotes to increase the market's liquidity and promote economic activity. So we will see that the Chinese stock market and A-stories have a rebound in the past few weeks. I shared it with you in the previous video. If you haven't seen it yet, you can go and see it. What does this mean? It means that the assets we hold, such as gold, encrypted currency, and these rare assets will also rise in price.

In the next few months, plus the US election According to the current trend, it should be possible to expect all assets to continue to innovate I shared with you in the video a few days ago why I think Bitcoin will likely rise to $100,000 by the end of the year What if you didn't follow this wave of investment? Maybe not at the beginning of the year or when it started last year Maybe it's because you saw some financial experts suggest that you don't build a bank so as to keep cash So you missed the time to build a bank in the past few months

It may not be too late to start building a factory now Because as the saying goes, investment never comes too late You may think you can take a chance You can find the best time to start building a factory But history has been confirmed many times We can't know No one can predict when is the best time to start building a factory You can only guess Or you can buy it when you see the bottom And according to S&P 500's history in the past 30 years

You only need to pass the 10 days of the best 10 days of growth Your overall return in the past 30 years Will be half less than those who have been in the market So Buffett said never go to the time market It makes sense If you don't want to do this long-term investment You want to rely on this short-term transaction To get this price trend, it's okay Of course, because I'm not doing trading myself So I wouldn't recommend you to do any trading Because I think trading still has a certain technical threshold

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I think CFD is a good choice Of course, this depends on your personal preference Any financial tools used in the bank can greatly increase your revenge It can also increase your trading risk So any transaction, whether it's CFD or contract, also requires technology and knowledge In addition, risk control is very important So I would recommend any interested novice to start practicing from paper trading Okay, that's it for today's video Thanks again for the invitation of FXTN See you next time