投資特斯拉的致命風險

Hello everyone, I'm Terry. If you've watched my videos or followed my IG, you should know that I've invested more than half of my shares in Tesla. I've been making more and more investments in Tesla over the past few months, especially when the stock price dropped to nearly $100 in the beginning of the year. Many people think that I'm a Musk fan or a brainless, crazy believer. Actually, I don't. I have my own reasons to invest behind the back of a company.

Before investing in any company or stock, I will do my best to study and write down the reasons behind these investments. Why should I invest in this company? If one day this company, Telsa or other companies, has changed fundamentally, and has not met the reasons for my investment at the time, or deviated from the original intention of my investment at the time, I will sell all my stocks without hesitation.

I believe many of my viewers have just started learning how to invest, whether it's US, Taiwan, Hong Kong or cryptocurrency. My suggestion is to give yourself at least three reasons before investing in any company. Write down why you invest in this company. These three reasons require very specific evidence and data to support these reasons.

Don't just say, "I think Elon Musk is a great investor" or "I saw a YouTuber who said he has an investment, so I followed him to invest" or "I have a friend who told me that this company must buy, so I followed him to buy" If you don't have a solid reason to prove why you wanted to invest in this company, you will become a leek What is leek? Leek is when the stock price rises, you buy with the wind and when the stock price falls, you are not afraid of yourself

and then sell it at a lower price. The main reason why the stock market is becoming a leek is because you don't have your own investment theory. Because the short-term fluctuations of stocks are often not related to the basic face of this company. In today's video, I'm going to talk about some different content. Any investment is risky. I think as a Tesla investor, you should know very well the short-term and long-term risks of this company. Today, I'm going to share with you three of the biggest risks I think are the biggest risks for investing in Tesla at the moment. It is also the three main reasons why I don't like to invest in this company.

I think for most investors, the most terrible thing is not the company facing the risks, but the existence of the risks that you don't know about. Let's pause for a minute to introduce the small country mobile game sponsored by this video. The Ant The Ant is a game that uses the first perspective of ants to experience the process of building a nest, expanding the territory, and breeding a group. I think this game is very innovative. At least starting with the concept of traditional SOG games, it is rare to see ants. I used to like to play similar games that can cover my own country.

and then to defend and steal resources. There are many types of ants in the game, such as the palace, the soldier, and the post. The functions are also different. For example, the special chair is the captain who carries the soldier. A powerful special chair can greatly improve the overall combat power. Then in the game strategy, you need to think about how to optimize your nest design and resource allocation, so that your ant kingdom's productivity and overall combat power are maximized, and then you can successfully defend and attack enemies.

In this process, you can learn a lot about the real knowledge of ants, survival habits, and the relationship with other reptile enemies. From the reality of the ants' underground environment in the game, it can be seen that their team spent a lot of effort to design a very real ant world. This mobile game has already exceeded 60 million downloads worldwide. Then I will put the download link of the game in the information bar at the bottom of the video. If you like a game like this, you can try it. First of all, I think it is the biggest risk. It is also the main reason why I don't like to invest in Tesla. It is Musk himself.

I think a mature and stable business will always have a business spirit, instead of causing a company to go down the drain because of a certain person's absence.

或是失去一個精神領袖 其實這個道理很簡單 任何一個人在一家公司 應該隨時都可以被取代 包含公司的CEO 這才是一家好的公司 就像你知道麥當勞 你知道可口可樂這些公司的CEO是誰嗎? Who cares? 沒有人知道 但是你看公司的股票 這些公司之所以可以永續的存在 就是因為他們內部的董事會 還有公司的文化 已經成熟到了一個 任何員工都可以隨時隨地被取代

If the CEO of today is not enough, you can immediately find someone who is equally qualified to do things in this position. It will not affect the company's continued development at all. But Tesla is not the same. Tesla's spiritual leader is currently Musk. No one can replace him. His position and importance. He should know that I know this kind of thing. I believe Musk has long known who his successor should be. And the board of directors may not have any successor. But the reality is that many investors and capital. The reason they invest in Tesla is because of Elon Musk.

If Elon Musk suddenly announced that he will not be the CEO or something happened today, it will cause a sharp fluctuation or sale of stocks in the short term. Some time ago, we have indirectly verified this fact. Many people think that Elon Musk has no time to care about Tesla after buying Twitter and then sell Tesla stocks to complete the acquisition of Twitter. Causing Tesla stocks to fall to 100 yuan in the short term. In addition, Musk himself and Tesla have been clearly proving to the outside world

Without Musk, Tesla can continue to follow the plan. You can imagine that he is also the CEO of several companies like Twitter, SpaceX, and Tesla. How many people in the world can be the CEO of so many companies at the same time? He can also do all the company's goals and execution very well. He has already proved that without him, Tesla can also follow the plan. I don't believe he has spent so much time on Tesla now. But there will be a big wave in the short term market.

But actually, I'm more worried about the long term Tesla is not like McDonald's, Coca-Cola or Apple Even if the current CEO retires, there will be no change in the basic face Because the company you invest in is called Value Investing You invest in their stable cash flow, stable revenue, stable product balance

稳定的业界口碑 而相反的特斯拉是 growth investing 你投资的是一家高成长 高风险的科技公司 你投资的是它在未来 可能可以带来的巨大回报 而不是现在看到的稳定现金流 所以说 growth company 成败很重要一点 我敢说应该是最重要的 不是它的产品或是科技有多强 而是它的领导团

Like a new startup, the leadership team is more important than anything else. So I think at this stage, even if Tesla's leadership team is capable of completely implementing the plan for the next 10 years, it still needs a spiritual leader like Musk. This is also the biggest disadvantage of investing in Tesla at the moment. It is necessary to admit that Musk is not important in the company and no one can replace him. In other words, if one day Tesla loses Musk, I think the risk and uncertainty will increase a lot.

It doesn't mean that the company will not become better. But at present, I think it is very difficult to find someone like him. Can continue to lead Tesla through all kinds of difficulties Then continue to innovate in production, manufacturing and technology The second one I think is the biggest risk is the problem of geopolitics. Tesla Shanghai Supermarket is currently the highest output in all supermarkets. About 40% of the facilities are currently coming from Shanghai. Everyone knows that the Sino-US relationship has always been like that.

從川普上任之後就開始打貿易戰 然後中國的反間諜法 抖音在美國被禁止 這些亂七八糟的事情每天都在發生 所以假如說今天中國政府真的要做什麼 他們完全可以直接把特斯拉上海的超級工廠給關了 不需要什麼太多理由 而且這些理由隨便找都可以找

The US government is also capable of blocking a Chinese company. So this is why Tesla wants to build a super factory in Germany. Why invest in the largest super factory in Mexico? The trade relationship between the United States and Mexico has always been very good. Although Mexico's super factory has begun planning this year.

But it will take at least 2-3 years to be launched. And the problem of the inter-US relationship is not only Tesla, but also SpaceX. Although SpaceX is a famous airline company, their relationship with NASA and the profit of the entire company is to help other companies launch satellites into space. These are all likely to involve political issues, such as helping Ukraine to fight.

I'll say what I want to say and if

If the consequence of that is losing money, so be it. If you don't believe how Chinese regulators can get a company, you can go check out Alibaba's stock. But Musk is very smart. Although he said a lot of nonsense on Twitter, and offended a lot of people, I know a lot of people who really don't like him. But he never said a bad word about China. He knows there are some lines he can't cross.

But who knows, social media like Twitter is also a sensitive product in geopolitics Twitter is completely banned in China So I think the biggest risk of investing in Tesla is geopolitics The third one I think the biggest risk of Tesla is the short-term economic cycle

Although I don't think this is a risk for me Because I am a long-term investor I am looking at Tesla 5 years and 10 years later But for many people, the investment period may not be that long I think there will be a great economic cycle risk in the next 1-2 years In fact, it is a very simple principle Tesla's cars, BMW and Binx are all luxury class high-end car brands

I think the next one or two years will have a very big wave.

And Tesla doesn't want to step on the brakes to reduce production Even if it's a loss of money, they have to open all the production and sell every car So their car prices will start to drop from this year Although I personally think this approach is not a big problem After all, Tesla's profit margin is the highest in the industry And the core of the establishment of Tesla is to accelerate the conversion of global renewable energy They're just doing what they said they would do But these short-term approaches will not be seen by Wall Street and those investors

So there will be a bunch of institutions to do the work And Tesla again in the end of April this year The CapEx forecast for the whole year CapEx is a large capital investment Like building a new super factory and expanding the original super factory Electrical production investment and AI investment in this part of R&D If you are in the technology industry or investing in technology-related stocks You should know that as long as North American companies announce their employees Their stocks will rise The reason is that the market is very pessimistic about the next year's forecast

If the company starts to cut down on its capital, it means that the company's loss or bankruptcy risk is reduced. So cutting down on capital is a good news for the stock market this year. Tesla, on the other hand, does not want to cut down on capital, but instead increase investment and expand the factory.

這些舉動長期來說是利好的,但是短期來看的話很容易因為一些數據沒有達標導致股票暴跌 在經濟不好的情況下如果你大量投資你的業務還是穩定向上增長的話 那沒有任何問題沒有人會說你但是如果你只要有稍微一點點沒有達標

Stocks are easily sold out Because these investments increase the risk of short-term company losses Okay, the above three are the current I think the biggest risk of investing in Tesla This is why I never recommend you to buy Tesla stocks on the channel I really think this investment is not suitable for everyone Even though I look forward to the future development of this company

But it doesn't mean that anyone can make money after investing in this company If you like videos like this, remember to give me a thumbs up I'm also curious about your opinion Welcome to leave a message below to share with everyone What do you think is the biggest risk of investing in Tesla? See you next time