Mira Murati's 975B Open Model, Ramin Hasani on Post-Transformer AI, and Demis' AI FINRA | EP #271
Mera Marotti, the former OpenAI CTO,
just shipped her first model. It's
called Inkling. Customization over
leaderboard dominance uh is what's going
to win her the day.
>> She's built exactly the thing hitting
the market that exactly what everybody
needs. Right now,
>> I want to pivot to a discussion of
liquid AI, the small language models,
what they are, what they mean. Our
mission has always been building
efficient generalpurpose AI at every
scale that explores the computational
graphs of intelligence beyond
transformer and then figure out what
should be that architectural design that
brings the same level of intelligence
that a frontier model into let's say on
on a CPU.
>> CEOs building the most powerful
technology in the world are asking to be
regulated. Demisabi, CEO of DeepMind, he
called for a US-led frontier AI
standards body modeled on FINRA. When
the incumbents ask for the rules and
they set the standards, they set up a
barrier for all the entry-level labs
coming in. Let's just be real. AI moves
way way too fast for any kind of
traditional uh bureaucracy. How quickly
can you do it is going to be huge, huge
challenge because
>> now that's a moonshot, ladies and
gentlemen.
All right, everybody. Welcome to
Moonshots, your number one podcast in
all things AI. Your front row seat to
the singularity. I'm here with my
magnificent Moonshot mates, our original
quartet, AWG, DB2, and Seem, and a
special guest, Reine Hassani, co-founder
and CEO of Liquid AI, and a pioneer in
small language models, which we'll dive
into. Raine, welcome. Uh, where are you
this morning, pal?
>> Thanks so much for having me. I'm
actually in Spain right now.
>> In Spain? All right.
>> There's nothing going on in Spain this
week.
>> God damn it.
>> Yes.
>> I'm I'm a I'm struggling from yesterday
cuz I'm a long-suffering England
supporter.
>> Um it was a very difficult game to
watch. God, they were like just had it
with six minutes to go and they blew it.
>> Yeah.
>> And Messi's a genius.
>> That's the round That's the round ball,
right? Is that
>> That's the round ball. Now, Peter, this
is where the Faulland's war gets
relitigated on a soccer pitch. Oh god.
You know, I just flew in last night from
Zurich and I had the most painful
experience, right? I don't know why
every airline doesn't have Starlink. You
know, I'm suffering on some me, you
know, some meager thin pipe connection
and you're flying over the poles over
the, you know, the Northern Territories
and there's nothing. And I'm trying to
get ready for this pod. I was like,
"Please give me give me some bits." So
anyway, challenge.
>> You must have grown up on soccer, right?
didn't you were in Vienna for a while
and getting your PhD and or your
undergrad or whatever it was. Uh
>> yeah. Yeah. I mean soccer has been like
a big thing, you know. I'm Persian and
Austrian like at the same time, you
know, like it's a big thing for us. So,
um yeah, like competition is something
that, you know, uh it's it's extremely
core to what we do even today, you know.
So, and uh I feel like that's like one
of the main drivers like sports and
everything like has been part of our
lives like from day one and then getting
into science the same thing you know now
getting into ventures same things you
know and that's uh that's what we're
doing
>> just compete compete compete compete I
love it
>> well are you there for a little bit of
time or you coming back soon
>> no I'm coming I'm I'm flying tomorrow
actually back to San Francisco
>> and Salem are you are you jealous of
everybody of him being in Europe or are
you happy to No, no. Three weeks
bouncing around in 10 different spots.
I'm very happy to be home right now. I
was just in Spain where me and myself.
So,
>> uh, all right.
>> There was a lot going on actually like
in in in Europe, you know. So, that's
>> same same like you 10 different places.
Then,
>> you know, Alex and I were just
reminiscing the fact that Europe's uh
sort of major advantage in the future is
it's going to be a museum of the way the
world used to be. Um,
ouch. Ouch.
But it is beautiful. There's no
question. It is gorgeous. All right, I
want to jump into our first
conversation. We have a lot to unpack
here. And of course, our mission is
keeping you aware of what's going on in
the world and giving you sort of the
optimistic, hopeful vision of the
future. Uh join us and uh keep up with
the incredible pace as we head towards a
singularity. So our first story today,
once again, CEOs building the most
powerful technology in the world are
asking to be regulated. You know, last
week Sam Alman published an op-ed in the
Financial Times proposing a framework
for a US-led international forum that
would establish standards, provide
expertise, impartial analysis and
capabilities, and assess risks. This
week, both Elon and Demis are adding
their voice to the regulatory
conversation. Elon says he expects a
standalone uh regulator similar to the
FA or FCC to emerge at some point
because in his words the consequences of
AI going wrong are severe. Then this
week Demisaba CEO of Deep Mind went
further in an essay titled A Framework
for Frontier AI and the dawning of a new
age. He called for a US-led frontier AI
standards body modeled on FINRA, the
industry funded watchdog that polices
Wall Street under SEC oversight. He
wants the FINRA equivalent to test
Frontier models before release. He
reportedly wants this up and operational
before the end of the year. Let's take a
look at a quick video from Elon and then
let's jump into this conversation.
I think the the general I think it's
clear that there's a strong consensus
there should be some AI regulation that
it would be in the best interests of the
people to do so and I think we'll
probably see something happen. I don't
know on what time frame um or exactly
how it will manifest itself. I I don't
know. I mean this there's clearly we've
created regulatory agencies before. Um
while our regulatory agencies are not
perfect um and I deal with regulators on
a very frequent basis um with automotive
um you know communications Starlink um
and then uh FAA with with rockets.
>> I think the probability of there being
some sort of AI regulatory agency that
stands on its own similar to the FAA or
FCC is likely at some point.
>> You think so?
>> I think so. Um,
now the the reason that I've been such
an advocate for uh AI safety in advance
of sort of anything terrible happening
is that I think the consequences of AI
going wrong are are severe. Um, so we
have to be proactive rather than
reactive.
>> Um, amazing. So I this is a conversation
we've seen over and over again and I
think the government, the public and now
the CEOs want to be leading this. I like
the approach that Demis laid out, right?
Um, but the challenge we have to discuss
is when the incumbents ask for the rules
and they set the standards, they set up
a barrier for all the entry level labs
coming in.
See or Dave, do you want to jump in
first?
>> I'd be very curious to know, Ramine, if
uh do they reach out to liquid AI and
say, "Hey, join this, you know, we're
going to create a FINRA like regulatory
body." Um you the reason FINRA works
fundamentally is because people from the
industry who know what they're doing are
willing to join it. They're definitely
not willing to join the government in
general, but they're willing to do a
year or two in a regulatory body. It's
actually kind of a badge of honor. So
for this to work in AI, it would have to
be something cool. And people like
Ramine or maybe you know some of the
people on your team would need to come
into your office and say, "Hey boss, you
know, I'd love to do this for a year. I
think it's really good for the world.
Will you let me do it?" And then you
would also have to be like yeah this is
a functional organization go for it. So
if it passed those two hurdles I mean it
might it might actually work. I don't
know what do you think. Yeah, there's
like you know like there's a capability
kind of threshold that we we're trying
to define right now and some some sort
of an iteration is needed to see like
how this um how how this framework it
has to exist you know that's that's for
sure you know there has this has to be
there but uh it has to be related to
capability and then the thing that
becomes a challenge is that that there's
a horizontal kind of capability lock
into like active like let's say like
enterprise deployment of AI and then
there's the vertical because if you go
to different verticals like for example
we operate on on on device and with
enterprises that are connected to the
physical world you know like we're
connect we are talking to car
manufacturers like semiconductor
business you know and laptop business
you know like people that are building
like AIPCs and then we are also working
with financial services and we working
with like e-commerce and and biotech
kind of companies and we see like in
different verticals you know like the
enterprise applications themselves and
enterprise criteria for let's say a
limit or let's say a regulation kind or
a governance kind of a structure is very
different you know so for us it becomes
a lot more kind of verticalized because
we're building a specialized models and
those specialized models like
pervertical we we have had like
conversations with the DoD and we have
had like a joint uh uh submission of
something I think with AMD like pretty
uh like just recently like we with with
our team to really have um have a say
basically like in in in the design of
like these regulatory kind of things and
I think as an exploration I think
Everything has to be like getting
started. I like to look at it as a game
theory kind of uh way of uh looking at
it like how to design like policies in
general. Like it would be a stake kind
of game. I don't know if anyone is
familiar with I don't want to nerd out
like pretty soon on this but we can we
can talk about this.
>> Alexon
the better.
>> Sooner the better.
>> Yeah. So I mean stakeber games like
essentially like where two policies like
basic like there's like a you know like
you have like a policy maker and then
you have agents or bodies that are
working in that uh kind of game theory
kind of optim they they're trying to
find an equilibrium you know what is the
optimal policy and what is basically
which is good for both right and then so
there's the frequency of action usually
policy makers are slower than the agents
in the society you know so if you think
about like you can you can really model
like that, right? And then you can uh
you can figure out like an an
equilibrium. This is not a Nash
equilibrium because everything doesn't
happen simultaneously. Regulations
happens and then you agents react and
then you iterate kind of accordingly and
then you change those uh uh regulations
basically. So I think
>> I see you trumping at the bit here
buddy.
>> Yeah. So I think I think what Raine is
saying is exactly right. The problem is
we have no mechanism for that. Right.
like
if you go down the path remain that
you're talking about you end up with the
appropriate structures that are adaptive
and API based or like driven by
benchmarks or something but the
mechanism that people have today is just
static law and the minute you pass the
law the law is going to be out of date
right the I I found that the FA and FCC
analogy is is is pointing in the right
direction but a let's just be real AI
moves way way too fast for any kind of
traditional government bureaucracy
Right. So, you're going to need you're
going to need a standards body. You're
going to need real-time audits. And
you're going to need open evaluation
suites. Um otherwise, you're going to
end up otherwise you're going to end up
in political gatekeeping and then you're
in a mess. The problem
>> isn't that what's good about FINRA. It's
not a government agency. It's an
industryfunded self-regulatory org.
>> Uh it is, but then the teeth go to the
uh SEC, which is essentially being
dismantled right now. So there's all
sorts of issues here. I I I I think the
the trend is correct, but how quickly
can you do it is going to be huge huge
challenge because forget passing a law,
passing a structure where you have a new
construct like this takes a long time
and it takes forever uh in Europe. I
>> I think Ramine nailed two things that
are very different from FINRA right out
of the gate. One of them is, you know,
at Vesmark, if somebody on our executive
team said, "Hey, I want to be part of
FINRA for a couple years." We would say,
"Sure, put on your suit and tie. go to,
you know, go to the meetings, come back
in two years, we'll still be here.
You're not going to do that. Like if
Alexander Amini or Matias Lechner came
into your office or said, "Hey, I I'm
going to check out for 3 weeks." You'd
be like, "No, you you can't do that
right now." So it's difference number
one is nobody's going to carve out the
time to do something for years like they
do at FINRA. The the other big
difference is AI can help regulate
itself and FINRA, there's no equivalent
to that in FINRA. It's all people just
chatting for long periods of time. But
you know when you start talking about
Nash equilibriums and other ways to to
automate the process of regulation
that's a big big difference as well. So
the FINRA analogy has some legs but you
know the differences are bigger than the
similarities.
>> Alex is I want to hear your voice on
this B.
>> I I tend to think this is a bad idea. It
smells like regulatory capture. It
smells like the attempted formation by
Demis of a cartel of Frontier Labs. And
I think the elephant in this particular
room is openweight models and research
that lives outside of the frontier
capabilities. And it's very easy to
imagine a future with FINRA or or other
I mean worst case scenario FDA like
capability even though outgoing
personnel from the current
administration have declared uh with in
no uh no equivocal terms that there is
going to be no FDA for AI regulation.
that that would be maybe on the the
worst case end of the spectrum that we
we see the emergence of some sort of
cartel of frontier labs that locks in
certain practices, certain price
performance optimal frontiers that try
to box out open weight or open-source or
uh say university driven or other
nonincumbent
frontier models and I think that would
be an utter disaster for both the west
and the world for continuing to advance
us towards everinccreasing super
intelligence capabilities. I I just
don't think it's a good idea.
>> You know, and the other elephant the
other elephant in the room here is these
CEOs who are asking for some level of
regulation I I think are are looking for
a backs stop. You know, if things go
wrong, they want to be able to point at
someone else. Now, I mean, we're all
super fans of the optimistic vision of
AI, but there's going to be issues that
materialize. is there going to be rogue
AIs that take down a power grid or take
down you know stock market or something
like that for some period of time and I
I guess they you there going to be
lawsuits flying as a result of that
unless there's a regulatory body that
that backs stops these large these large
models and these large frontier labs
>> maybe uh there are I think at least two
different frames that one can look at
the liability side from there's regulate
the inputs that is to say like have
something that's FINRA like or FDA like
that regulates the raw capabilities of
the models at model construction time.
That that's one end of a spectrum. The
other end of the spectrum is regulating
the actions of the models. Like you you
let the lawsuits fly if if a model takes
down a stock market or does something
else that uh otherwise harms third
parties. That's the other end of the
spectrum. It's not obvious to me that we
should be in the business of regulating
super intelligence at super intelligence
time. That's that's maybe tantamount to
thought policing the AIS. And I'm I'm
not generally a fan of that notion of
let's thought police the AIS but not
thought police the humans. We don't at
least in in the West have a practice of
regulating what's in our minds. We we
don't have a practice or a tradition of
regulating an upper limit say or via
some sort of regulatory code saying
humans uh natural persons can't be above
some level of intelligence. is not
obvious to me why we would create a new
tradition of regulating or otherwise
coordinating the upper intelligence of
non-natural uh entities perhaps soon to
be persons but regulating the actions
that in at least the western legal
cannon that we do do and that I'd be
much more supportive of.
>> So do you Alex, let me ask you a pointed
question here. Do you think that this,
you know, sort of outcry for regulation
by the large frontier labs is is
regulatory capture that they're just
trying to build a moat against uh
further players coming in? Or do you
think they actually want to provide some
level of safety? What's their underlying
driver here?
>> I I worry that it's more regulatory
capture and creating moes for themselves
in a hyperco competitive landscape. And
it is h I mean, it is a rat race at this
point, the frontier. And I I I do worry
that it's more regulatory capture than
it is some notion of protecting the the
future here. Seem, what do you think?
>> Uh, not workable.
>> Well, I know that, but do you think do
you think it's regulatory capture or do
you think that the that these CEOs are
trying to just make sure we've got a
safety a safety net of some type?
>> I I I'd say it's like 50/50, but I think
there's a bigger problem. There's an
elephant in the room here. Some
>> there's already an elephant in the room.
We have a room has to accommodate so
many elephants. We need some other
non-human animals.
>> Better get a bigger room. You've got uh
non-state actors and other folks that
won't listen to this structure and
you're back to square one. What's the
What's the point? I'm going to say it
again. I've said this repeatedly. I see
no mechanism to regulate AI. It's moving
way too quickly. Any regulatory is
static.
>> And so it's going to have
position on that one. just if I may
Peter narrowly on that I mean there are
definitely hypothetical mechanisms and
that I'm not supportive of for
regulating AI like we royal we the the
US and China if going back to I think we
gestured at it in a past pod but uh past
proposals to say regulate the foundaries
regulate the chip outputs regulate the
data centers establish mutually assured
destruction type schemes where the US is
monitoring Chinese data centers and vice
versa like there are There are schemes
there are schemes at choke holds as
Peter says in the supply chain by which
one could imagine doing this
>> interesting mechanism
>> the only mechanism it's going to be like
a pandemic style threat detection that
would be globally agreed and I don't see
how we get there
>> well you don't need global you just need
US and China right the rest of the world
is is basically outside those blocks or
inside those blocks
>> all right well I think my guess There's
probably a poly market out there uh we
can we can look at and if someone wants
to search on it you know the question of
will we have a regulatory body by end of
the year right we have Demis saying by
the end of this year you know Elon
stepping up uh and and Sam obviously
trying to on his own on the side trying
to push for this so when the three
largest labs uh are pushing for it my
guess is the government will latch on
and will do this I don't think it's a
matter of if it's only a matter of when
and what the structure will be.
>> Well, I I should also note that Elon
clip I think is from three years ago,
which is interesting. You know, it's
from three years ago because Elon had
his sort of like painted on uh Iron Man
goatee uh when he was in that that that
phase. Uh so, so Elon's been forecasting
this for at least three years. Others
have been forecasting it for decades. We
still don't have it. We have like
subdivisions orgs within NIST that are
uh working on standards but that's not
really regulatory body. We have
executive orders that are creeping
towards a regular regulatory body. But
you know at what point it do we sort of
are we frogs boiling in water where
there's just like a creeping roll out of
increased standards expectations of
early reviews but it never quite reaches
regulatory agency level before we
achieve whatever escape velocity we're
heading towards.
>> Well, uh we're going to monitor this one
closely for everybody. I I think my
guess is we see this before the end of
the year and the question is can we see
something that's intelligent. Uh let's
go to the next story which is related uh
and this is a wild one comes from the
Washington Post that the White House is
reportedly weighing a capability
framework that would clear US models
open or closed as long as they stay at
or below the level of China's best
openweight model. What's the
translation? So the proposed ceiling for
what American companies can openly
release is pegged to what China has
already put out on the internet for
free. So here's the logic. Chinese
openweight models reportedly trail US
models an average of 7 months. I think
that's been closing over time. Uh so if
anything is at or below that, it's
already out there. It's an implicit
admission that open models cannot be
unshipped. Models like deepseek have
already been downloaded millions of
times. So once China releases a model
freely, banning it is impossible. So the
US response is to define a permissible
ceiling rather than a wall. The
implications were tying our open release
ceiling to China's pace of release
effectively giving you know Beijing
control. If they push their open weight
models higher then the US can release
higher models as well. If China holds
back, then they throttle us. And it's a
very strange mechanism. I was surprised
to see this. Alex, let's go to you first
on this one. What do you think of this?
>> Uh, I mean, the the obvious note here is
this creates the perverse incentive to
let China win the race to ever greater
super intelligence so that Western
models and western labs can escape
regulation. I'm not a fan of this. Uh uh
raine gesturing at you from a game
theoretic perspective. This is the I
think this would be the moral equivalent
of throwing the steering wheel out the
window in in a game of chicken. Not such
a great idea. Not supportive of this.
>> I love that. Oh my god. See, what do you
make of this? Is this just perverse
Washington DC logic?
>> Yes. This is like trying to uninvent the
printing press. I mean you we're
throwing the kitchen sink at things
trying to to to solve something that's
already a problem. The you you have to
move from like prevention and whatever
to adaptation. You have to go to that
and we we don't have the mechanisms for
that.
>> I mean you know I mean would you even
listen to this?
I mean what what logic
>> you might
>> well
>> what do you think of this? I mean the if
I just look at the the the the
progression of the technology itself
like it's it's getting into into the
place where like you AI are designing AI
like we you're doing the same things and
all of the labs are doing this and the
pace it's just the pace of model
development is like getting so so so
much smaller you know that is um is
becoming like exponentially more more
difficult to really like impose any any
of these type of constraints and I know
like they had these type of
conversations But it's just at the level
of conversations, you know, like these
are the things that are getting leaked
outside of
>> White House for ideas.
>> Let me let me give a headline from for
Alex for for his next newsletter. Um,
the singularity is becoming a trade
dispute
>> for the next newsletter. That was like
two newsletters ago.
>> Okay, fine. Whatever. That's out
already, but thank you.
Um, you know, I can just imagine where a
US Frontier Lab CEO calls DeepC can say,
"Would you please accelerate your next
model release? We want to get ours out
as well."
>> Or you see worst case scenario. I mean,
there there's actually a an even worse
scenario, which is you start to see the
the best, if not Western labs, unlikely,
the best Western researchers move to
China to escape this regulatory
framework. That would be a disaster. I I
think and and we've seen this, by the
way. There's precedent for this. We saw
this in biotech where China now exceeds
the west in terms of number of trials.
Like China is experiencing a biotech
boom that could happen in AI as well
disaster.
>> It's it's much more specific than that.
If you look at all the quantization
research, all the best stuff came out of
Microsoft research in China. All those
people now are at Chinese labs. They're
not they're not still working for US
companies.
>> China ran away with turnery and one bit
quantization. You see a little bit of
Western research. I don't think we're
talking that much about it in in this
episode. you see a little bit of uh
encouraging western research on like one
bit or 1.58 bit quantization but China
ran away with it due to constraints.
>> Yeah, it's a new company.
>> Look, this is a huge problem, right?
Because over we've seen throughout
history that open ecosystems always win
>> and this is not open versus closes which
open ecosystem wins and the US's
historical strength has been open per
ecosystems with permissionless
innovation. you like abandoning that
would be the weirdestly strategically
bizarre thing we've ever seen.
>> Yeah. The the other I mean there's even
a meta worry I have which is how do we
even define capabilities and and I worry
a little bit not just about regulatory
capture of the labs themselves. I think
there's actually so so sorry to be like
a a meta doomer here. uh there's a worst
worst worst case scenario which is we
freeze in or otherwise lock in the
benchmarks for how we measure
capabilities and that that would be I
think maybe even worse than just locking
in the incumbents as labs because if if
someone somewhere ratifies all right
like whatever index of evals this is
going to be the rubric going forward for
how we measure what's above the
threshold for frontier versus below
what's a frontier model versus not I I
worry that could so distort model
capabilities like they'll overex
exercise certain capabilities
deliberately and perversely under
incentivize or underbenchmax others that
it'll just totally distort maybe topize
the the future landscape of super
intelligent capabilities.
>> All right. Well, again this is a story
that we'll be we'll be following on this
news of ope models. So in the past
>> there's our topiary right there. In the
past, we've been discussing how ope
models uh have been in the US have been
lagging in China. We have Nvidia's
Neotron 3. We've got Google Gemma 4. But
that changed last night with some
breaking news. Mera Marotti, the former
OpenAI CTO, uh who walked out and raised
her one of the largest seed rounds ever.
Uh it was incredible uh financing she
pulled off in the background. just
shipped her first model uh for her
startup called Thinking Machine Labs.
It's called Inkling. It's an Opalweight
Foundation AI model that can be
downloaded by anyone, fine-tuned and run
on prem on your own hardware. Uh the
specs are serious. Uh it's a mixture of
experts model with 975 billion total
parameters. Only fires 41 billion at any
one time. So it keeps it, you know,
keeps the model going fast and cheap. It
was trained on 45 trillion tokens of
text, image, audio, and video. And very
importantly, reasons natively across all
four. Reuters Muse framed it exactly
right. Quote, "This is meant to be a
western alternative to the Chinese opate
models, Deep Seek and Quinn, that have
dominated the opo leaderboards." Uh,
now, interestingly enough, Maradi her
bet is contrarian here. She's not
claiming it's the best model on Earth.
Her own blog says so. Uh she's betting
that an AI that AI companies can adapt
her models for themselves. That
customization over leaderboard dominance
uh is what's going to win her the day.
>> You you've you've hit there, Peter, on
the really big thing. She's making this
she's pushing on the customization lever
>> and this because it's not going to be
the future is the raw power. It's going
to be the adaptability that's going to
win. And this is she's built exactly the
thing hitting the market that exactly
what everybody needs right now
>> and people owning their own models
working on prem and not giving their you
know uh their controls to the large
frontier models. I mean I I I do hope
this begins the race for powerful
openweight models in the United States.
>> Well it's it's worth looking at the raw
capabilities. So if you believe the eval
hopefully that thinking machines aka
thinky has released it's stronger than
neatron which is great like neatron
you'll recall from past pod where we
were discussing Alex karp's rant on
sovereignty of models neatron is one of
the incumbents at least on the American
side for openweight frontier models so
this this seems to be at least according
to the eels that think he's released
stronger than nematron which is great so
the the west now has a new frontier here
openweight model. It's weaker than GLM
5.2 which is arguably the strongest or
one of the strongest Chinese openweight
models and openweight models overall. So
it's not it's not one of the strongest
openweight models overall in the world.
It's obviously weaker than the closed
weight western frontier models. But I I
think point one it's great to have
better stronger western openweight
models. Point two, I I think it raises
the question, why has the West been so
bad at releasing frontier openweight
models and why has China been so good at
it? And I think it comes down to you
show me the incentives and I'll show you
the outcomes. I think the west has been
poorly incentivized to release strong
openweight models because these API
based frontier models are just such a
good business model. And we see
Anthropic about to IPO at a trillion
dollars and we see OpenAI planning to
eventually IPO at a trillion dollars.
And in China, which has been GPU and
compute deprived on the one hand, and on
the other hand has the CCP declaring
5-year AI plus plans to integrate AI
into the rest of society. has all of the
incentives a different incentive
structure than what the west has. China
has been much more incentive
incentivized to make money from the
integrations between AI upstack on
applications like robots and downstack
into the chips than the west has which
is more horizontally stratified. So to
the extent that thinky has been
incentivized in the west due to
competition and due to just a saturation
of the frontier by the closed weight
models into looking a little bit more
dare I say Chinese in terms of their
outlook and their incentive structure. I
think this is very helpful to finally
have enough competition in the west
that's creating ways to monetize
openweight models other than just per
token sales namely selling them into
enterprises and what you incentivize.
>> Two more.
>> Two more thing. I agree wholeheartedly,
but also you have to note that OpenAI
started open source open weight and then
went closed big revenue and uh Meta also
was the leader of
what happened to now it's closed. No,
they they have a new model out and it's
it's closed API. I mean, it's exactly
what Alex said. If you throw your model
out there as open source, what's your
revenue model? So I think, you know,
there's a real possibility that that you
put a data point on the map with a a
really solid open- source release that's
not quite on the frontier. You generate
news, then you have a data point on the
line, then you do another, then you do
another, and then when you have
something really groundbreaking, then
you go closed source and you launch an
API into corporate America. And so that
that's a wellworn path. So I wouldn't I
wouldn't say this is necessarily a
religion at thinking machines that
they're going to stick with. You know,
the trend has been the opposite of that
in the past. Raine what?
>> They're they're leaning into fine-tuning
as a service. If fine-tuning as a
service becomes like something at scale
revenue generation wise, I think maybe
this has legs, but who knows?
>> Yeah, it's a matter of like the business
of the company, you know, like thinking
machine can do uh three more iterations
of their pre-training or post- training
kind of RL kind of environments and
benchmarks like those numbers that you
see on the benchmarks and release like a
like a better model. But what they what
what what their business is their
business is fine-tuning. Like this is
kind of the place where customization
has been like something that everything
like the whole the whole market around
customization has been very empty. Like
if you look at the first attempts like
OpenAI released the OpenAI tuning like
fine-tuning kind of 3 years ago or
something it never took off. So they
took like a really good uh approach on
designing the base for fine-tuning
larger instance of the models for
enterprises because as you see like the
model layer is not anymore like you know
like the the the place where you can
actually extract value especially if
you're not hitting the maximum frontiers
you know like uh and even the open
weight kind of models when we're talking
about sovereign AI and integration of
these models into enterprises you need
to leave some room for let's say
fine-tuning these models and what they
have what what I think their business
strategy around what they're doing and
this release is genius because they're
deliberately releasing they're they're
putting they're leaving some room for
fine-tuning so that people can come in
and using their business uh uh their API
business because that's even generating
if I think in the order of uh one to two
orders of magnitude more tokens as well
you know on the on the on the
customization side so that would be like
even printing money at a larger speed
like in the in the in
absolute best case right
business entry
>> to to add to Raine's point I I think the
situation maybe is is even more extreme
so a couple points one OpenAI was the
first to my knowledge to launch
reinforcement fine-tuning RF as a
service and no one used it uh the the
whole tech world everyone I speak with
no one used it uh it was barely
advertised by OpenAI second point open
AAI shut off their fine-tuning API open
AI was one of the earliest if not the
first to offer fine-tuning as a service.
>> We used it all the time. It was it was
incredibly cool for its time
>> and they they've just they recently in
the past few months they announced it it
has either already been wound down or
about to be wound down. The fine-tuning
API has been shut off. So that I mean it
raises the question is is thinking
machines bet like explicitly contrarian?
Are they thinking that we're going to
end up in a world where reinforcement
fine-tuning and RL fine-tuning in in
general and fine-tuning like that's the
paradigm? They may be right, they may be
wrong. There there's an alternative
vision where RF just dies. Uh and we the
the baseline models are so generalist in
terms of their capabilities that all you
need is prompt engineering and there's
no need for RF at all. Alex, you talked
about the Alex Karp rant, right? Yes,
the result of that was um don't allow
don't use a model that is has all of
your data open to your competition. And
I do think we're going to see a real
push over the next months to years where
people want to use fine-tuned opate
models that they own on their own
hardware in their you know onrem and if
that's the case then the question is who
are they going to use which models are
they going to use are you know and is
the US going to start to regulate
against Chinese openweight models in
which case a dominant US openweight
model is going to take is going to have
an advantage and so is that the bet
mirror is going after um you know we're
going to probably see my guess is Google
step up in this area as well very
shortly you know take Gemma 4 to the
next level and hopefully we get some you
know two or three major in the same way
we have a closed you know the closed
model Frontier Labs competing and
dominating in the US hopefully we'll see
that competition give birth to you know
very strong opio models
>> it just to build on something you know
Alex and Verine were saying you know if
I compare today to a month ago you know
we've been fine-tuning Quen all week and
and the idea of using Inkling sounds
really compelling to me and you know our
companies are using liquid as well. A
month ago to fine-tune these things with
some huge engineering effort that
required AI experts. Now with Fable 5,
it's just a prompt.
>> So let's back up one second. Dave,
explain what fine-tuning a model is for
those who don't know.
>> Well, you know, back when GPT2 and GPT3
came out, you could actually very easily
fine-tune by uploading text right into a
window and say, "Look, you're pretty
smart, but you don't know anything about
my laundromat." you know like what hours
were open now who our employees are
entire payroll let me dump that data in
too and retrain the model with that
knowledge and if you didn't do that you
couldn't do anything useful because it
didn't have this holistic I know
everything capability back then so
without the fine-tuning it was
borderline useless to to use the models
then the models got so smart that
they're pre-trained with now 45 trillion
tokens which is basically every word
ever written by humanity has already
been trained into the model so people
tend to use them in their vanilla form
today and just say here write this code
for me or here drive this car for me
because it's already in there but then
when you get into biotech research or
you get into aeronautical or the
Mercedes you know like Ramina is doing
there's a whole bunch of proprietary
company knowledge that actually isn't in
the model so right now we dump it into
the prompt field and say okay here it is
in prompt form but that's hugely
inefficient
>> and you dump it into open AI and you
dump it into anthropics uh you know
model which now makes it accessible to
everybody else as well. I mean,
>> yeah. Yeah. I mean, Sam Sam and Dario
can see everything. All your proprietary
information, they're looking right at
it. That's what Alex Karp was ranting
about when he said, "They're stealing
your weights. They're stealing your
alpha." What he really means is they're
looking at your most proprietary your
company payroll, your company's secrets,
your your your chemical research. Like,
it's all going right over the wire to
these foundation labs. Is that what you
want? And of course, you know, for
defense and for banking, of course,
that's not what you want. And so now the
ability to bring the model in-house and
fine-tune it with your local data is a
huge is a huge unlock. But the the
higher level point is now the
technological capability to do it
relatively easily is hugely better today
than it was a month ago. So I think
mirror may be on to something here.
We've hit a real tipping point and Alex
Carp I think is right about it too.
>> I think there's two things that also
that that I saw that were really
interesting here. One is a very big
context window like a million tokens
because that means you can do a lot with
it. And the second is multimodality.
>> Yes.
>> And so this is aiming squarely at
organizational use. This fits perfectly
into the onrem proprietary data um model
where you you take your data customize
and fine-tune as you said Dave and that
will be the future. A couple of historic
notes again for for those uh
definitionally uh not tracking the the
full sorted history of fine-tuning. So
fine-tuning is is this notion that you
you start with a model. Model consists
of billions usually these days of
weights of parameters that are frozen.
And if you want to customize the model
for your purposes, you can conduct a
so-called fine-tuning process that
usually makes relatively small, hence
the fine changes to some usually a a
tiny subset of the weights in order to
customize the model for your end
application. That's fine tuning. There's
actually now decent literature out there
that suggests that conventional
finetuning like supervised fine-tuning
Laura style low rank uh adapter uh one
class of fine-tuning architectures
doesn't result in increasing the
capabilities of your model at all. And
at most it it results in like a style
transfer like you could fine-tune a
language model to only speak in
Shakespearean verse for example that's
not really increasing its capabilities
>> or only be an accelerando flavor output.
Well, uh, no comment. Uh, but but I I I
I would say historically fine-tuning
didn't have a history of increasing
capabilities. Then along came
reinforcement fine-tuning where for the
first time via large amounts of
synthetic data uh and giving access to
all of the weights and and not just like
a subset that's convenient to train. we
gained the ability and you know
fine-tuning post- training there there's
a there's a gray area between you know
what what's the distinction between them
but with reinforcement fine-tuning RFT
uh and the the release of the first
generation of reasoning models we saw
fine-tuning actually start to increase
the capabilities of the models now the
problem with thinking machines business
model as as I understand it is it's a
bet on the flavor of the moment that
reinforcement fine-tuning is going to be
a paradigm in the future right now
obviously the paradigm of the moment
that you could take an off-the-shelf
model and RFT your way to customization
with proprietary data and proprietary
environments and other things that that
seems to work pretty well at the moment.
But in some sense, if that is like the
permanent long-term plan of thinking
machines, it's fundamentally a bet that
we're not going to ever move beyond the
reinforcement fine-tuning paradigm,
which I think is probably wrong. I I
think probably RFT is the scaling of the
moment, but in the future, I can totally
imagine a generalistbased model that is
just so generally capable that it
doesn't actually benefit from any
further reinforcement finetuning on any
internal data sets and we tend towards
ASI. Let me bring up another key point
here on this story which is uh in the in
the context which is it's great to see a
woman CEO in the AI frontier lab area. I
think women are distinctly missing from
the entire AI industry, right? We have
Lisa Sue from AMD, but very few in
leadership positions. And I I think
that's an important point. I'm not sure
who else you know, Alex, are you seeing
>> Daniela Roose right where
Fe is also
>> and Fay Lee. Yeah. But again, we're
talking about what singledigit percent
of the AI industry is is women. Uh and
we need more. So, a call out to every
all the women out there, please jump
into this industry. We need uh
>> we we we need more balanced thinking.
>> Yeah, for sure. I mean, I I I do think
that's an important point to pull out
here.
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>> All right. Um let's move on to our our
next story here. Uh
it is uh a a fun one. Uh Alex, I was
walking in the streets of uh where was I
yesterday? Zurich. And I saw this come
up and I said, "Hey, let's talk about
this tomorrow." And and you said yes. Uh
so here is the uh the story we've talked
about the holy grail of AI is recursive
of self-improvement. It's sort of like
the holy grail of the launch industry
was reusable rockets. Um this you know
RSI is a holy grail for AI. It's the
idea that AI makes itself smarter. Uh
and then you use that smarter AI to
create the next generation of AI. It's
sort of the theoretical engine behind
the hard takeoff scenario of the
singularity. So this week, a startup
called Wo AI uh with researcher Zeng Yao
Jang uh published what they call
experimental evidence for the first
recursive self-improvement. Whether
they're first or not, Alex, I'll ask you
about that. They built a system called
AIdriven exploration squared, aid
squared, with an outer AI agent whose
job is to rewrite the code and the
research strategy for an inner AI agent.
In their experiment, they claim that 8
days of machine self-improvement beat
two years of expert human effort. So,
Alex, what do you make about this? Is it
the first uh is it significant?
Very significant. Highly unlikely that
this is anywhere close to first. So, so
a few bits of additional context. One,
uh this is actually this WICO is a
startup that's based in London.
Interestingly, it's not based in the US,
but still western sphere. So, great. Uh
so this is a startup built by a bunch of
as I understand it uh UC London grads.
Secondly a few points that I love about
this story. One it's an example of
defensive co-scaling which so to to the
extent we talk about alignment AI
alignment on the pod and I'm I'm always
banging the the drum of defensive
co-scaling as the ultimate alignment
strategy.
>> What does that mean? So defensive
co-scaling is the idea uh borrowed by
analogy from human alignment
human-touman alignment that rather than
hoping for call it the great man theory
of alignment that someone somewhere is
going to discover the perfect algorithm
for keeping AI safe instead the solution
for AI safety is AI policing AI in
proportion the way we keep cities safe
is we have police forces police forces
that scale according to some scaling law
in proportion to the population of the
city. So, so we have the good guys and
the bad guys and the the way we keep the
bad guys in check is with making sure
that we have enough good guys to police
them. Same idea with AI. The way we keep
AI aligned with humanity, a key way is
we make sure that we have enough good
AIs policing any bad AIs in terms of raw
capabilities that they defensively
co-scale. So what one of the things I I
love about this uh aid two story is that
the outer loop so so the the way this
recursive self-improvement process
worked was they had an outer loop and an
inner loop. The outer loop was tasked
with the with improving the inner loop.
The inner loop was tasked with improving
software development processes in
general according to some benchmark. The
outer loop discovered and both both
powered by the same underlying AIdriven
exploration process. At least initially
the outer loop and AI discovered that it
was able to achieve and this was an
emergent property better results from
the inner loop by keeping by preventing
the inner loop from cheating and reward
hacking. And so so in some sense the
outer loop is defensively co-scaling
with and policing the inner loop all the
while this is reaching toward greater
and greater capabilities. And I I think
this is also parenthetically an example
of a case you know all of those who
would say okay like we need to pause AI
capabilities and throw all of our
resources to AI alignment until
something preposterous in my mind like
2040 like stop all stop the race to
super intelligence. stop it all. Focus
on focus the next 14 years on alignment
research. It's going to backfire because
every alignment capability, I would
argue, is actually just cap is is
capability, new capability in in sort of
in disguise in a trench coat. Same idea
here.
>> We need stronger white hats to police
the black hats.
>> Yes. But the the beauty Yes, agree with
that. And also the beauty is the the
so-called white hats were emerging
organically uh on their own just from
the outer loop policing the inner loop
towards greater capabilities. That's
first point. Second point quickly the
same startup Wo has published a scale of
recursive self-improvement which is I I
think something the world has been
missing. So we have like for autonomous
cars we have uh the um the society of
automotive engineers has their like five
levels of autonomy for autonomous
vehicles. They've published a scale for
recursive self-improvement that that
goes from zero to three. Zero is
delegation where the AIs are slower than
human R&D. Level one net positive where
the AIs beat human a R&D at the same
cost. Level two they call ignition where
the improvers are better basically a
better improver. and level three
inflection self- acceleration with a
fixed budget. And the claim here is that
they're touching just starting to touch
on ignition. They call it level one
rather than level two. But the claim
here is like this is a pre-ignition
event, which I think is super exciting.
>> So they they rate themselves as a level
one here.
>> Yeah, they rate themselves as level one,
but reading between the lines, they're
like this is like sparks of ignition,
literally and figuratively.
>> Okay, so maybe I can maybe I can jump in
and and say a couple words. I'm not as
excited as Alex is like on the on the
topic and and I see I see this is an
impressive engineering kind of work that
has been done just to tell you a little
bit about like how the foundation model
labs are operating all foundation model
labs since the beginning of let's say
like four years ago or let's say 5 years
ago everybody has been thinking about
recursive self-improvement and for us
the definition of recursive
self-improvement is not the engineering
and prompt engineering of in inner loop
and outer loop to really get get some
code patches like changing because that
gives you the assumption that every
single AI model that you're using in
your pipeline is already like uh uh you
know like it's already defined and it's
already fixed with a certain type of
capabilities which is actually the case
in the whole pipeline that they actually
like design there's no weight changes in
the neural networks so that means like
the AIs that are actually getting used
right now there's no uh kind of
improvement of the core competences and
even behavior of the models they're
always like in the system prompt of the
of the models like changes in the system
problem because I will give you like
fundamental reasons why this is actually
limiting because if you just run the
like how I want to tell you how hard of
a problem is recursive self-improvement
for us recursive self-improvement means
that you have an AI system or an army of
AI systems that they can also like
retune themselves they can you know
adapt very similar to how humans do it.
You know, if you if you think about it,
the core competences of these models
that we have right now, they're they're
they're fixed weight models and and the
capabilities are within a certain kind
of threshold. And the frameworks that
they actually like designed, it's not um
it's a very nice early stage of show
showcasing an engineering pipeline that
can improve work, which is actually very
very important and very nice. But I
wouldn't I wouldn't go so much to say
like this is like the first breakthrough
in in in the entire AI industry or
something like in fact like about three
years ago we published a paper ourselves
like we talked we talked about automatic
design of model architectures you know
like you know as liquid AI we didn't
want to put like a bet on a single
architecture we have basically designed
self-improve like meta AI systems that
are actually defining their
architectures and then going through
scaling laws for various types of
architectures and then trying to figure
it out based on the criteria that you
define what should be the final model
and then right now at our company all
the process of training foundation
models and really like retuning the
weights of the system are are getting
automated. So we are talking about AIS
or designing AIS. So that's that's what
I what I would be like calling it like
the holy grail where you can actually do
automatic kind of tuning of a model. And
I'll tell you with the frameworks that
they kind of uh uh structured, it would
be extremely exhausted computationally
intractable to actually performing this
this job training an AI model training
like being able to customizing an AI
model and training an AI model on a
meaningful number of tokens for
adaptation or let's say like the core
competence of the model changing core
architecture of the model changing core
algorith learning algorithm itself
changing all of those matters adds more
and more complexity on the on the
situation. I can give you also like one
numerical kind of example of this.
There's a scaling laws called chinchilla
law. You know like chinchilla is like
the scaling laws of neural networks and
know like it is unproven like we have
actually unproven but still like it's it
gives you a good sense. It says when
you're training a neural network let's
say of a given size. If the size of the
model is two billion parameters, you
need 20 times of more tokens number of
tokens to train these models so that you
have you have compute optimality given a
compute budget. How many tokens do you
have to train a model so that you have
like a general purpose kind of system?
So that ratio is like 20. And then when
you actually do the math with the
frameworks that they have, if they want
to like let's say you launch this
framework on retuning an AI model to
recursively self-improve with this uh
framework that is getting introduced, it
takes us 350 years to really uh uh
fine-tune a two billion parameter model
with this framework. So there are so so
so there's there's a lot of there's a
lot of u computational complexity goes
into nested learning systems nest metal
learning systems you know like these are
the kind of problems that the last four
years of like at least at my company
like we have been heavily focused on and
I know friends at openai and entropic
has been like focusing on this recursive
self-improvement and entropic has been
having a lead on all of these things
because they thought about this before
every everybody else that's that's what
can put out there. Dave,
>> yeah, brilliantly said. And actually,
just just so the audience can get the
analogy there, when a baby is born and
then learns, you know, that happens over
about a 20 year time scale and after 20
years, you've got an adult that's
capable. Recursive self-improvement is
like evolution on top of that where
you're changing the DNA and creating a
new
>> You're changing the neuronal structure
of the brain along the way.
>> Exactly. So, so that happens over, you
know, about a 10 millionyear time scale.
So you go from 10 years to 10 million
years to go from learning to recursive
self-improvement or recursive evolution.
And so the big foundation model labs
like Ramine said are all doing it. It's
the most important moment in human
history. But there's no, you know,
little guy out there that's going to
come up and say, "Hey, I've got a
breakthrough in recursive
self-improvement. My Mac Mini suddenly
became conscious and now it's improving
itself." Just computationally it doesn't
even come close to fitting. So it's
happening, but it's happening with big
compute and big budgets. uh and and you
know there's a lot of room for
efficiency improvement a lot of
breakthroughs will happen but it's not
going to just pop up on some you know
>> you know there's a lot of fe there's a
lot of fear just to call it out that you
know recursive self-improvement leads to
AIS that take off a hard you know we've
discussed the hard takeoff and without
our understanding of that black box um I
I guess the two questions need to be
asked is do is there a concern that
recursive self-improvement once we hit
level two level three by that definition
um runs away in a way that um uh causes
an uncontrolled uh AI that is misaligned
with humans. And the second question I
have is when do you think we'll see
this? When do you think we'll actually
see recursive self-improvement hit? Is
ASI going to be that point uh or is it
post AGI whatever that means? See, I say
that for you.
>> I'll let you answer that exist. I've got
I've got several comments though but
Ramine go ahead what do you think is
happening
>> look the thing is I can tell you like
the early evidence of recursive self by
the way recursive self-improvement is
not related to one single agent it's a
social kind of character as well you can
imagine like you know you have societies
of agents so this defining kind of
structure for society of agents itself
self-improving these are the places
where actually mythos level kind of
class of models like I hate this analogy
but still like let's say mythos level
kind of class because everybody body
like heard about mythos and then what I
would say is that like the cyber
security kind of uh um um uh threads
that we are seeing like coming out of
these type of pipelines of recursive
self-improvement
they're real you know like like the
reason why I'm actually I I've always
been like you know like pro open source
and I want to open source technology all
the time like we are doing it all the
time like every single release of our
models is open source our science has
been always open source I believe
science has to be open source and I I
see the value of open source going
forward. But some of these concerns that
uh Peter you you brought up, they're
they're very real, you know, like the
cyber security kind of aspect of things.
That's why I feel like like a degree of
at least uh enterprises themselves
having some degree of kind of
self-control like about like how before
mass release of their uh their models
there there has to be always a certain
degree of selfch check and I think
entropic took it very seriously. The
reason behind is because they're seeing
the impact of recursive
self-improvement. So I know I know this
for for a fact because I I know what is
happening like in in seeing it at a
smaller scale. You know, you can do
reward hacking, but you can also like,
you know, like avoid reward reward
hacking like to to the certain extreme
and push a model to actually discover
some stuff that you know like are are
out of norm, you know, and and we we see
that on a small models like at a at a
certain capabilities certain
capabilities emerging and then I can
only imagine like what kind of
capabilities could emerge from let's say
larger and larger systems thrown more
and more compute at them. When do you
when do you think we you know when do we
have a pod
>> timelines remain timelines?
>> Yes. When do you have a pod that said
yes this is recursive self-improvement
because while you know while the data
released by WICO is interesting uh it's
their own self-reported data. It hasn't
been confirmed by anybody else yet and
you know there is a you know debate
about whether it really is or is not
real recursive self-improvement. When do
you think we actually, you know, you
give the trophy out to somebody? Is it a
year, 3 years, 5 years?
>> Yeah. I mean, I I'm telling you that
that so I I would say like you're going
to see like unbelievably kind of models
like probably in the next 2 years or so,
you know, like models that are like
going above our our understanding even
like that that's that's what what I
would imagine to get. The reason behind
it is because the time to developing the
next generation of the models is
reducing especially if the compute grows
like at foundation model companies like
with the rate that we are seeing right
now and if there is no like let's say
another chip shortage or memory shortage
like on compute or anything like around
the globe and they have access to
abundant compute we are going to see
those things like happening faster and
faster. Now in terms of model
development there's a concept that we
have we call it depths of customization.
So everything at a foundation model lab
when you're customizing a model when
you're building something that is like
better than its previous generation we
always categorize it with depths of
customization. The place where recursive
self-improvement today is really good at
is prompt engineering changing editing
code like in engineering kind of tasks
that you've seen like some elements of
these things like at a very very
superficial level let's say make my
model run fastest like doing kernel
engineering basically you know make my
model run faster that's what I call like
the shallowest level of kind of
customization where you have Python code
and then you're kind of adopting that
Python code to really run or maybe like
even lower level programs that you have
like on a kernel level to optimize like
let's say inference speed you know
that's something that I think with when
when they released Fable 5 they they
shared like and tropic actually shared
that this was one of the tests that they
have been performing you know but they
they don't share like the next level
depths of customization the next level
depths of customization is that can a
model fine-tune a small language model
to a production grade capability or a
smaller version of itself to a certain
capability
today like fav 5 can actually you can
push it to actually get to some degree
of kind of customization with some
>> performance optim performance
optimization
>> performance optimization of the model
but by fine-tuning then the latest holy
grail which is like the craziest one
which would be pre-training right can a
language model pre-train the next
generation of their own that's why they
hired karpathy because Andre was talking
about like nano GPT style kind of uh
fine-tuning you know andre like joined
entropic and now he's working on
pre-training automation like basically
automation of automation. So which is
which is a very very important kind of
element that we don't have yet because
the scale of these problems goes beyond
human imagination in terms of the scale
of compute that
>> you're jumping
>> I've got I've got for me this is by far
the most important uh story or slide
we're going to cover today. Um I'm
beyond excited for a couple of reasons.
uh the you know I I'm not really focused
on the self-awareness or the loop that
will go there but this is self
accelerating it's accelerating
experimentation right because the system
doesn't need it's it's improving the
process by which it searches and
evaluates and selects improvements and
the innovation loop begins to compound
that for me is the key why because this
this whole thing we've been doing called
the organizational singularity relies on
one thing which is can you get to
recursive self-improvement at the
workflow level. Here we're talking about
the model and we're talking about like
can you so but you don't need that
level. The bar can be much much lower to
improve invoice uh uh approval at a
company right that's a very low bar to
improve that process. So this is the
first glimpse of the organizational
singularity. It's happening at the
research level, but the because AI is
not just doing tasks in a in a workflow.
It's redesigning the workflow uh that
makes it better for doing future tasks,
right? And so this is proof now for the
whole thesis we've had. Um we predicted
this, but it's great to see it actually
happen because now I can kind of tick
that box off and go this is there cuz
now you have meta improvement. And I
think Dave's analogy of the baby
changing the DNA is fantastic. That's
such a great visual around this. What
the hell does it become over time? Um,
really really I'm beyond excited about
this.
>> I've got to move us along. There's a lot
that happened this week. Our next story
here is the Malaysian prime minister,
uh, Anoir Ibrahim has is preparing to
debut an AI generated digital double of
himself trained to sound like him for
public communications and outreach. So,
uh, this is one of the most prominent
cases yet of a sitting head of
government officially adopting an AI
likeness as a communications tool. Uh,
not a deep fake Biden adversary, but a
sanctioned official AI clone of a
national leader. Uh, we've seen this
before, Selene. we've talked about in
the past where Albania in 2025 uh
announced uh Dileia uh an AI avatar that
was formally appointed the minister of
state for artificial intelligence and
following a presidential decree became
the first AI system in the world named
at a cabinet level role. Uh so one
leader uh in this case prime minister of
Malaysia can personally address millions
in their own languages. It's worth
noting that Malaysia has 135 spoken
languages. So, um it's a big deal,
especially in in a nation like that.
Sim, I'm going to go to you first on
this one. Um we've been talking about
this for a while.
>> Yeah, I I met the um the former prime
minister when I was there helping them
open a university. Uh and Anoir Ibrahim
is a really really good guy uh to as a
follow on. Um the there's a risk here.
the risk is that the authenticity kind
of collapses because people need uh you
know you could you could launch a bunch
of deep fakes with this and have a huge
issue. Is this the actual leader? That
kind of question can come up. But I love
the general approach because if you can
do it from a with a watermarking or
something and say this is the actual
avatar, uh then it gives every citizen a
voice to um um plug into and gives huge
props to the civics of all of this
because now you're scaling civic
engagement and I think that's a very
powerful thing to do. It's one of the
biggest challenges we have with
democracies all over the world is civic
engagement and this allows you to scale
that. So I'm very excited.
>> Do you remember the reason why Albania
put this their AI cabinet minister in
place?
>> Yeah. Corruption.
>> Corruption. Exactly. It was to fight
corruption.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah. Now, Malaysia is pretty decent as
a pretty decent place, but definitely
you you have that issue. But I think the
this is more of a PR thing and more him
trying to figure out ways of connecting
with the ordinary citizenry, which is
all great. I I love the fact that we you
know we had this conversation with the
uh president of Argentina uh you know
going full out here and it's interesting
to see which countries are sort of
experimenting on the edge. Um Alex, do
you want to weigh in?
>> Yeah. So many thoughts here. First I
think we're going to see more of this in
the west as well especially with like
extra high alpha personality leaders
that want to amplify themselves and
touch the the citizenry. AI Trump is
coming is how you're saying
>> high personality leaders that that want
to touch the citiz citizenry and in some
sense I I think it's a generalization of
social media. So social media enables
direct outreach from the leader or the
influencers to everyone but it's sort of
broadcast one to many. It's not
interactive. This generalizes in some
sense social media to make it a lot more
birectional since if you're touching a
million or 100 million or a billion
people it's very difficult to interact
birectionally with everyone all at once.
Now if you create a digital twin of the
leader or the influencer or the
organization now it can be birectional.
So I I also don't think it's just going
to be governments or government leaders
that adopt this. I I think it's likely
that corporations, corporate CEOs will
do this. We already see Zuck and others
creating digital twins of
>> themselves. We had DAR on the Abundance
stage last year. We're discussing this
that uh the employees made a DAR clone
that they could go and practice their
pitches on and get feedback before they
pitch to him.
>> Yes. And it won't just be I think
corporations, religious leaders and
religious institutions. uh if you're
Catholic, imagine having like a digital
twin of the pope and you you see like
lots of religious institutions,
organizations already creating basically
living versions of of their founding
documents and making those interactive.
But I think the biggest twist and we
we've seen variants of this movie before
are going to be in cases where what
start as digital twins of the leads or
the avatars uh of an organization uh or
an uh some sort of like organized
religion actually themselves become the
leader. that that's at at some point the
the digital twin uh it to the extent
it's interfacing much more with the the
the populace uh the the proletariat as
it were of an organization at some point
it's actually the digital twin of the
leader running the company and not the
actual behavioral origin that uh that's
running the company and I think that's
that's one way in which sem to your to
your exo point this is I I think a
potentially a pathway towards not just
uploading individuals like natural
persons or non-human animals but
uploading entire organizations into into
cyerspace into the cloud if we created
digital twins are the leaders and those
are the ones actually running the
organization
>> it could lead to a true democracy Dave
where do you come out on this I mean we
saw just one quick point we saw Sam
Alman talk about in the future if I
believe enough in what we're building
with with chat GPT it should be the CEO
of open AI eventually
Dave are you going to create an AI Dave
Blondon that's going to run Link Studios
and and Link Link Ventures.
>> Absolutely. Going to create an AI Dave
Blondon. And I'm shocked that there
isn't already a Peter Diamandis.
>> Well, there is there is one. It's just
inside the Abundance ecosystem. I mean,
anybody It was funny. I went to uh went
up to Calgary and met with one of my uh
dear friends and abundance member and on
his wall, I kid you not, he had a giant
screen of my AI avatar that he has all
of his tech employees talk to uh to sort
of get their moonshots and it was it
blew my mind.
>> You've got your own big brother, Peter.
>> It was like he goes, I want to introduce
you to someone, Peter. And he spins them
up and I you know, it's interesting to
have a conversation with your AI self.
Um, it is very compelling. I mean, I
have enough books and tweets and uh and
and Substack posts out there that it
does a damn good job. Uh, we should
effectively, you know, moonshots.com is
our our platform we're building out. I
think we should have AI avatars of all
of us there where people can do AMAs.
>> In some in some cases, Peter, I think
that might be redundant.
>> Ah, well, hey, in other words, you're
already an AI, but we can have an AI of
the Alex AI. Sure.
>> It would be so much better than the real
person because we'll have access to
everything we've ever said, all our
memories, all our thinking. The context
will be much broader. Go for it.
>> This whole area
>> Yeah.
>> This whole area is about a year behind
where it should be largely because, you
know, Noam Shazir was doing character AI
and and we had Steve Brown Peter that
was uh two years ago now. We had Steve
Brown make uh the debate between AI
Peter and Sak Aristotle.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah. And and so it's been a it's been
possible for a while now, but all the
key talent working on it got sucked back
into the big foundation labs. And you
know, there's so many big big big uh you
know core technological breakthroughs
going on that the people that were
working on this just got absorbed back
into those things and not into the the
avatar. But my my mom would always tell
me when I was a kid that John F. Kennedy
beat Richard Nixon in the election
because uh he looked good on TV and TV
was the new medium and the prior medium
was radio and Nixon was still using
radio voice when TV had taken over. So
then, you know, elections go by and
suddenly it's the internet, it's it's
social media, now it's YouTube. But this
is another step function change in the
way that you reach out
>> to people and it's underutilized, but
it's it should be easily dominant two
years from now in the next election. And
so I'd be shocked if because the
technology is already there and people
are visualizing the medium right now as,
oh, let me make an AI version of myself.
I'm Alex Wisner Gross. Here's my AI
version. It's just like the real thing.
That completely misses the point. The
the AI version of it can in real time
access any information and make it
visual, graphs, charts, you know, it can
morph its face. It can it can teleport
through space to make a point and point
to atoms. It can shrink and expand. It
has all these capabilities that the real
human version doesn't have. And that's
why it's going to be so compelling. It's
the differences that make this new
medium so exciting, not the not the
exact clone. And so once people realize
that there's no going back. It's going
to be huge.
>> I think Dave, that's such a great point
that you make, it's the complimentarity
that is very powerful.
>> Let me let me close out on one thing
here. If if uh to our audience here, if
you've not sat down, if if you're lucky
enough to have your mom and dad still
alive or your grandparents still alive
and you haven't sat down and interviewed
them in video uh for hours at a time,
please do that. Right? you're gonna
you're gonna wish you had. So, I've done
that with my mom. I miss doing that with
my dad. And it's the ability for your
kids and your grandkids and your
great-grandkids to really have a great
AI representation of your of your
parentage and your your lineage. I think
that's going to be super important.
Reine, I want to I want to pivot to a
discussion of liquid AI uh and uh uh the
the small language models, what they
are, what they mean. uh super excited
you know uh just for full disclosure uh
you know liquid AI is a company in which
uh Dave you played a important pivotal
role as an early investor Dave you want
to give that backstory here a little bit
>> uh actually I got a call from Daniela
Roose over at CEL saying the best
student I've ever had Daniela Daniela is
you know one of the three I guess big
shot women in AI she runs CEL at MIT AI
lab in the world computer science AI lab
you know I don't know if you remember
back in the day there was the AI lab and
then LCS lab for computer science were
the two biggest
>> you know compsai labs at MIT they merged
them together and made one mega lab put
it in the new STA building which is that
crumpled look looking beautiful
structure uh you know right on the edge
of MIT's campus and then Daniela is
running that entire thing so I think
it's like 1500 researchers in the
building biggest AI lab in the world and
and so she has access to incredible
talent but she called and said, "Hey,
best students I've ever had have this
incredible breakthrough." And then she
completely lost me. She said, "It's
based on the nervous system of the worm,
the C elegance 300 neuron worm." Like,
what are you talking about? But it turns
out that if you, you know, I actually
don't know of any um successful
foundation lab uh that has really
rethought from the ground up the
transformer and thrown it out basically
and started over which which you know
humanity desperately needs because that
the everybody knows the transformer
architecture and the whole attention
mechanism is bloated. And if you really
go back to founding principles and think
again, you might be able to build
something dramatically like massively
better. And so the team went from idea
in a lab to billion dollar valuation in
faster than any company out of MIT in
history.
>> And luckily we were an investor in that
company.
>> Luckily we were. Yeah. And very very
thankful actually. It was very
competitive getting any money in at all.
So Reine uh we owe you a huge debt of
gratitude for for being invited to the
to the party. Um but uh yeah it's it's
uh one of about 200 unicorns out of MIT
all time but the only foundation model
company that I know of that reached
unicorn status coming out of MIT. So
it's a really unique uh and incredible
achievement and in record time too.
>> So remain take it take us from there.
You're you're doing your PhD under
Danielle Larus at the computer science
AI lab CEL and you're studying a 302
neuron uh worm uh C elegance and so take
us from there forward to what's uh what
you're doing now what is liquid AI
>> absolutely absolutely like before I
start like I want to thank you guys like
for for the support throughout like this
three and a half years years of liquidi
you have been like great support giving
us like the the the kind of distrib
contribution that uh a company needs,
you know, like and and at at our scale
like starting off of the east coast.
Thank you so much for doing that both of
you. Um and um and um yeah, so so 2015 I
was in Vienna. I started my PhD with
professor in Vienna, Professor Rad
Grusu. There he had the idea of like we
don't understand a lot about human
intelligence. Let's start on a smaller
animal and then from first principles
like if you understand how the neurons
exchange information in the brain of the
worm. The worm has 302 uh neurons in its
nervous system. It is uh its body is
transparent so you can actually see the
body actually lighting up like so it is
a one of the best model organisms in the
world. It won so far like four Nobel
prizes for humanity like you know
because it has 78% similarity genome
similarity to uh to human genome you
know. And the way nervous systems
compute in the brain of a little worm
which is 2 mm is um basically analog
very similar to how artificial neural
networks are actually computing. They
are also like analog switches like they
have like graded potential. They're not
spiking. So in biological neural
networks usually in the brains you see
neurons a spike and when you have a
spike that's there's an analog to
digital kind of uh transfer of uh uh
things are happening and that's a
natural development of nervous systems
for uh in in the human beings and and
bigger animals for propagation for
efficient propagation of information. In
the brain of the worm neurons behave
very similar to how artificial neural
networks react but then the the
mechanisms are very interesting. So we
wanted to add more complexity into the
neuro like every individual single
blocks of nervous systems and see can we
pack more information into inside the
smaller kind of units of compute you
know and that's what we have done so
Danielle Arus two years into basically
discovery of these things that I was
doing with my co-founder Matias Lechner
Matias was a master student in Vienna
Vienna University of Technology and I
was a PhD student and then when Daniela
heard from Radu that uh you know like
this project is going on. Danila was
like, "Oh my god, this is crazy. We
should apply this in autonomy in
robotics and all the sort of things
because you're showing like uh a handful
of neurons can drive and control
autonomous systems, you know, and can we
scale this to vehicles? Can we scale it
to drones to to jets to like like
predictive kind of places?" So Daniela
came in and said, "Would you guys
consider coming to MIT?" And we we went
there since 2017 in the middle of my
PhD. I actually joined CELL there. We uh
we continued working on the uh on this
technology which was you know like from
a base is a completely different things
a neuroscience inspired the math behind
like every single neuron in a liquid
neural networks that became kind of my
PhD thesis is very different than how
attention works you know these are based
on recurrent neural networks these are b
based on continuous time processes you
know like more and more kind of nature
inspired computation went into the
design of uh uh found design of kind of
AI systems and then we applied these
liquid neural networks as a completely
new base because uh we applied them to
real world scenarios like robotics
because you can pack a lot more
information into smaller kind of
processors in the real world in the
physical world you don't have the luxury
of having abundant compute let's say a
robot doesn't have it doesn't have like
a lot of GPUs or parallel data centers
like attached to it a robot has a CPU
and a small like let's say GPU and let's
say an NPU a custom ASIC. So you can
actually take this type of uh you know
intelligence that we design that deliver
basically intelligence at the level of
like models that are 10 to a thousand
times larger than themselves. You can
bring those things like directly running
on CPUs, GPUs and NPUs outside of data
centers. So we thought that okay this
format is is going to open up an
opportunity for us to bring in like
alternative architecture if we scale
this technology to let's say into into
the regime of foundation models which is
kind of large language models and SLMs
uh as a whole like human understandable
like making this liquid neural networks
or architectures that we have uh also
scalable like the transformer
architecture and uh we built like a
foundation model lab around the idea uh
in 2020 2023
beginning of 2023 I think at the very
beginning when we started there was no
foundation model lab apart from deep
mind and and and open AAI basically like
when we started and this notion of
foundation model labs didn't exist and
everybody was betting on top of uh uh
you know transformer architecture and we
came in and we said okay so why don't we
explore this space of alternative
architectures starting from the priors
that we have from nature and then take
take a different approach build a meta
AI system again uh basically an
automated AI system that allows us an AI
that designs AI that explores the
computational graphs of intelligence
beyond transformer and then figure out
what should be that architectural design
that brings the same level of
intelligence than a frontier model into
let's say on on a CPU that we can run
let's say a physical system
>> take a second and and walk us through so
these are small language models can you
define an SLM M and how it varies from
an LLM.
>> Definitely. So when you start uh
developing kind of foundation models,
you start you you run something called
scaling laws. You know like a scaling
laws is like basically starting with a
smaller models and with these smaller
models you train them on a certain
number of token budget given amount of
compute. You train these models to see
how well they perform. Then you start
systematically making the models larger
and larger. So that and and we have seen
scaling laws shows that the larger you
make the models the more token budgets
you spend the more intelligence of a
system you can get and this has been
like giving rise to large language
models along the way of scaling there
are instant instantiation of the models
which are smaller you know like on the
scaling laws but we have been doing as a
lab our mission has always been building
efficient general purpose AI at every
scale so we started as a foundation
model lab to really run the scaling laws
on on efficiency front you know and
efficiency was a first class citizen for
us you know like thinking about
computational graphs of intelligence
smaller models are models that are you
know like along the line of like a
scaling they can solve um let's say they
don't have like the general capability
to the level of the largest kind of
language models but they can be
specialized to solve dedicated problems
they are general purpose small language
models are general purpose in the sense
that they understand language They can
see and they can hear in a multimodal
kind of format but they don't it doesn't
mean that they can solve let's say a
homework in physics and at the same time
they can solve an enterprise problem you
usually specialize smaller language
models
>> and what does small mean what does small
mean in this case
>> small means like basic I mean now they
come like now small would be like
anything below 100 billion parameters
you know like that's kind of the regime
that I would count I mean midsize like
basically is is around that that size
but I would consider like anything below
100 billion parameter is something that
is not small and mediumsiz kind of
models you know there's no there's no
clear threshold of like let's say what
is the number of parameters but for us
like the notion of ondevice AI is is
extremely important here to distinguish
within this range of parameters ondevice
AI is like models that you can actually
deploy them uh on the on an actual kind
of device physical device this could be
a
>> let's make this concrete cuz you've got
a significant deal with Mercedes.
>> Yes.
>> Um and can you speak to that and let's
talk about you know these these SLMs in
terms of uh onrem uh basically they're
they're and energy efficient uh you know
fast offline. Let's let's dive into that
give people sort of a real understanding
here.
>> Absolutely. So as I mentioned you can
specialize these foundation models. We
work with a lot of enterprises that are
building devices themselves. Like
automotive is a device is a is a is a is
an environment where you have a lot of
chips in there and now in a car you
don't have that much that much compute.
So there's like one chip that is
available for infotainment and incar
intelligence you know that chip is very
very small. The Qualcomm chip or let's
say Samsung chip like depending on like
what company is providing the chip like
that chip is like very very small. We
are talking about 2 GB to 8 GB of RAM,
you know, like not more than that. So
the model has to be very small and at
the same time being able to perform
because we want to bring this and enable
a private space inside the car that
powers the intelligence of the car in
the car. Car is a safety critical
environment. You don't want your car to
be driven by an AI model that is sitting
in the cloud. Why? Because connectivity
is not uh always available, right? then
uh it is it is private because it's one
of those spaces that people spend a lot
of time in and you don't want those
conversations to be like recorded. So we
brought the intelligence like um
basically we brought u uh one of our
multimodal foundation models that is
only uh less than one gigabyte of in
size
>> and it can go inside the car's chip like
very very tiny chip. The chip could be
as cheap as $60, you know, like that's
what I'm saying. Like we're bringing
that level of intelligence into that
that voice and it is going to power kind
of the multimodal intelligence
experience inside the car. We do that
with all car manufacturers. We announced
the Mercedes partnership as a first uh f
first kind of uh point of entry because
automotive is like it's very sensitive
kind of uh topic and and they're they're
pretty slow. One of the things that
Mercedes dispense actually enjoyed from
this process was the speed of operations
that we had for enterprises you know
like when we are bringing this type of
technology inhouse this has been like
one of those uh cornerstones of landing
the deals you know because we want to
work we are an enterprise company we're
a B2B company we are bringing our full
power to really like deploy the
solutions and really have platforms that
allows people to fine-tune like their
small models and fine-tuning small
models is not that expensive. It's
something that is extremely tangible. So
they we fine-tune kind of the small
models for the the applications inside
the car. We also have data flywheel kind
of systems that allows the system always
stay adaptable. Imagine some of the some
of the problems in enterprise AI has
always been let's download a GLM 2 5.2
like you know and and let's say an open
source model and put that in production
and then so what happens after you put
the system in production? What happens
like when there's a drift from the use
cases that is hitting this model inside
let's say a car and in the physical
world it becomes even more challenging
because when you deploy an intelligence
that is completely kind of disconnected
from the cloud how do you want to like
maintain updates of the system because
we have always thought about like
intelligence in the format of liquid you
know like intelligence has to always
stay adaptable and um and that that's
that's kind of a portion that we're also
pushing on to really be able to collect
the data and personalize models to the
experience of every single user. With
Mercedes, we're rolling this out first
in North America uh as as soon as
basically this year. All the
Mercedes-Benz North America cars like
from 2022 on they're going to get an
update overtheair update because the
size of the update is 600 megabyte. So
that's that's like a that's like a
overlay of like it doesn't consume that
much internet to really update your
software and that allows us to also
further customization. Imagine if every
update that you want to perform on the
system is in the order of 20 megabytes
because we are doing like some sort of
lore adapters and let's say all sort of
adapters that we can actually bring in
inside the car. You would be able to
have like a recursively kind of
improving the experience of the user as
well. So that's kind of let's take it
make it more concrete for me. So what am
I going to be how am I using this model
in my Mercedes next year? So right now
my experience is using Grock in my
Tesla, right? And it's over the air. If
I don't have connectivity, I don't have
Grock. Uh but you know what kind of what
kind of queries what kind of
capabilities does this all of a sudden
enable in a Mercedes?
>> It has access it it's it's sitting below
the the the operating system. So that
means like it is basically it is like
basically have access to all the
functions inside the car you know so
there are 700 functions inside the car
700 to like I don't know 1,200 depending
on what what you count as a function you
can you can talk to your car you can
control like all the panels of your car
you can ask for let's say manuals of the
car you know like when when you're like
get let's say stuck somewhere you know
like something pops up you know like you
would be able to talk to the car there
are memory features that we are adding
to the car like You basically can have
conversations with that with that
system. Once the like one of the
beauties of this system is that like it
has full access to the to all the
functionalities of the car plus all the
apps because there are like function
calls. They're one function calls away,
you know. So if you want to control any
other thing from this from this
intelligence unit inside the car, you
would be controlling everything all the
ecosystem that is sitting on top of the
uh um sitting on top of the operating
system of the car.
So basically I mean if I get you right
there the advantage of the SLMs are
first of all you know the size of the
model I I assume energy consumption
they're efficient um and they can run on
on prem uh do I mean how do you avoid or
reduce sort of overgeneralization of
these models compared to LLMs?
>> What do you mean overgeneralization? In
other words, uh are the do you have
enough capabilities internal to them so
that they are uh actually able to
accurately answer the questions you're
asking?
>> Great question. So if you have like you
know I I told you about the framework of
foundation model development which is
depths of customization.
>> We try to actually stay adaptable and
have access to the tools across these
customization stacks. Sometimes prompt
engineering is enough. Sometimes you got
to fine-tune the model. Sometimes you
have to do go and pre-train a model
again you know for the core capabilities
or a specialization of intelligence. Now
we make systems that are you know our
platforms are getting into the place
where they're automatically identifying
what depths of customization is needed
for a certain solution and the platform
basically like it's it's one of the
products of the company that we sell to
enterprises to allow them to fine-tune
kind of models like I I don't want to
call it fine tune customize a model at a
level that is needed for that uh uh for
that system to actually operate right so
for Mercedes-Benz we have a let's say
like the framework that we have at at
in-house. We call it model plus X, you
know, model plus a platform that allows
you to perform customization. It's not
just the models that we're selling to
enterprises, the static weights of a
model. We sell them something that they
can actually like retune and fine-tune
the system. Detecting how how much uh
generality like the base models have,
it's something that you know like
libraries of liquid models are coming
out for many different applications. We
have models that we're working with for
example in silicon medicine like you
know Alex
>> I introduced you Alex
>> that you introduced us Peter like I
remember and um and through that kind of
interaction like it is getting big you
know because they discovered that liquid
foundation models are actually pretty
good getting customized for a certain no
they're they're basically like really
really well orable so and and and that's
something that they they they figured
out that it comes handy for them. So now
we have a state-of-the-art biotech
foundation models like longevity
foundation models like these are the
kind of things that we're building in
bio and imagine like as a horizontal
company that is building foundation
models we went to like fine-tuning and
that became like something that we have
we have managed to do and then in terms
of um you know like some of the uh uh
some of the other engagements like we
recently with with Shopify we entered
like uh one uh 1 billion kind of request
address inside the Shopify kind of
framework And uh there like what we've
done we uh we deploy our liquid
foundation models in production. They
have been in production for the last 6
months and they are really serving
clients you know and and Shopify is like
a huge uh uh base like we are touching
100 million kind of hundreds of millions
of kind of users 10 billion products and
many different kind of uh places to to
integrate. We are working with
Mercedes-Benz as I mentioned like on the
car kind of side of things. We're
working with AMD and uh other chip
manufacturers to really bring AI uh
let's say um low code AI experiences on
PCs as well. So that's like another uh
area that we enter. The focus of our
company is to really uh make sure that
we can bring uh basically intelligence
outside of data centers. That's like
something that we have focused on and I
think our efficiency is actually
allowing us to get
>> preliminary matter. I have no financial
interest in liquid. Sorry Reine have to
ask the the most obvious question. I
have so many questions for you which is
the company liquid was founded as I
understand it and I I remember reading
the original I think it was in science
or nature paper on liquid neural
networks. Uh the premise is basically a
neuromorphic premise that that you could
gain useful AI insights from looking at
nematodes uh a few hundred neurons sort
of the ultimate small neural network.
But my perception I I'm hoping that you
can uh either help me amend or revise my
perception is that although liquid
started with a neuromorphic premise if
you will like a post transformer very
recurrentoriented architectural premise
or prior that over time again just based
on my perception of public messaging
liquid looks more and more like either
transformer or transformer plus or
transformer plus hyena plus dot dot
looks more and more like basically a
conventional off-the-shelf architecture.
It may be a good business selling sort
of customized transformer derivatives to
Mercedes at all. If so, great from the
business side. But from the technical
side, does Liquid still have anything
that looks remotely like a trans a post
transformer architecture either in
production or under development? And can
you speak to what if anything is post
transformer or non-transformer oriented
about the architecture that you
currently use? Great great question. So
let me tell you like the space of kind
of architecture. So liquid neural
networks in in the original form they
are one of the most expressive formats
of computes that you can actually create
arguably like in terms of our
architecture they are they have nested
non nonlinearities that are like in like
you cannot really like take them out.
They're like completely physics
inspired. They are like having like the
neural odes and and basically like
irregularly sampled data can be handled
by them. So they they become like one of
the very very general class of
architectures as a whole. Underneath
these things like when you want to scale
this type of technology these
recurrences like you know like this uh
nested kind of loops that they have. If
you want to scale these systems a lot of
people have attempted including
ourselves to linearize the dynamics so
that you can actually like scale them.
space uh uh you know state space models
are kind of basically like mumbas and
those kind of variants falling into the
same category of continuous time neural
networks but dumped down into a linear
kind of dynamical systems because you
you want to scale them. They are
underneath this class of continuous time
models that we have. Then there is like
there are variants of uh linear linear
attention gated linear attentions that
are coming out. They are also like
gating mechanism is something like
there's a special gating input dependent
gating mechanism that actually we got
inspired by the by by how neurons
actually exchange information with each
other. That gating mechanism is also
something that is adding a lot more
expressivity like it is also descendant
of the original formation of how neurons
exchange information with each other.
That gating mechanism still exists today
in in many different architecture and
including ours. But the most important
thing that I want to mention that you
should know about the technology
transformation of our company is that we
really didn't want to bias ourselves
towards one single architecture. One of
the things that we did day one at Liquid
AI, we designed a search algorithm to
let's say like you know let the
algorithm instead of human biasing kind
of the algorithm let the let the
algorithm run the scaling laws on let's
say 100 different variations of
operations that potentially can give you
a general purpose computer. So we build
a meta system. The paper around this is
actually we published like two and a
half years ago. We published a paper
about uh about the topic is called star
automated uh design of tailored
architectures. So read about style uh
and and star is a framework that brings
all the dynamical systems with any
format including kind of variations of
attention into one format for us to be
able to search through. Okay. So to see
like for four criteria what is the most
optimal neural architecture let's say of
choice for let's say a certain
deployment number one criteria is memory
like how much memory are you consuming
on a given processor number two was the
efficiency of computation how fast you
can operate number three is latency of
operations and number four do not lose
accuracy on the performance there are
pure transformer models and then there
are hybrid models that you can actually
build hybrid models have like an
essential compon like they have a little
bit of transformers in them but they're
but the but the rest of the kind of
dynamical system and most of the
dynamical system for the purpose of
these four objective functions that I
mentioned would be you you would change
that and you can actually automate this
whole framework to design foundation
models inhouse the the technology stack
of liquid foundation like liquid
foundation models is called automated
foundation model design kind of
algorithms we call it AFMD This
automated framework is the one that
explores architectures for for a given
kind of hardware. And guess what came
out of like the first generation of the
architectures that we started
optimizing. It came double gated
convolution kind of mechanisms as 80% of
the network being this. So when we run
without a human bias the gating
mechanism that we had exactly in the
liquid foundation liquid neural networks
original paper it actually shows up with
this very very similar kind of format in
the final architecture that comes out of
the search space.
>> Everybody welcome to the health section
of moonshots brought to you by fountain
life. You know we talk about AI on this
moonshot podcast all the time. One of
the most important things AI is going to
be able to do for you besides educating
your kids and helping you with your
taxes is making sure that you're living
a healthy lifestyle that you get a
chance to get to 100 plus. I'm here
today with Dr. Don Mucalem the chief
medical officer of Fountain Life and a
part of my medical team. Don a pleasure.
>> Great.
>> You know the thing that people are
concerned about most about living to 100
or 120 is their cognitive abilities.
making sure they don't have dementia and
uh the numbers about dementia are
problematic. Uh can you share what
you've learned?
>> Such an important point and you're right
at Fountain Life, our members, the
number one thing people are most
concerned about is losing their brain
health, forgetting the name of their
child, forgetting the face of their
loved one. We know that when it comes to
dementia, the conservative estimates are
that 45% are entirely preventable. What
was amazing is with the advanced testing
we're doing at Fountain Life, one
quarter of our members had advanced
brain age.
>> Wow.
>> But what was really awesome is again
back to that prevention when we
partnered it with healthy living. This
gives me chills. Eating healthier,
moving our bodies sleep, optimizing
sleep is so important. You know what we
saw? We saw that we improved that brain
age by 26%. That is a big big number to
show that the majority of those
individuals were able actually to
improve the brain age.
>> And one of the things I love about
Fountain is we're searching the world
for the best therapeutics, the best
approaches, and making sure we bring it
to our members. So if having healthy
brain function uh till 100, 120 is
important to you, check out Fountain
Life. Go to fountainlife.com/per.
Make sure you become the CEO of your own
health. All right, now back to the
episode. All right, our next story comes
from Palmer Lucky, the founder of Oculus
and now the chairman of the defense
giant Andre. It's it's funny to call
Andre a defense giant, but it is. He's
claiming that the modern patent system
has become a national security
liability. In his words, the entire
patent office could be downloaded every
morning, ripped off, and used to fight a
war against you. The core problem is
baked into what uh patents actually do.
Uh patents are a requirement. If you
want to get a patent, you have to teach
uh a uh a person skilled in the art how
to actually uh you know create and use
your device. So this disclosure of your
invention and the exact words and patent
law is in uh such full clear and concise
and exact terms as to enable any person
skilled in the art to make and use the
same. So if you do that, you're
effectively teaching the world how to
use it. uh and you're exchanging that
that uh sharing of your invention for
roughly 20 years of exclusivity. Palmer
argues that when a strategic adversary
can simply harvest every file, ignore
the legal protections, and weaponize the
disclosed knowledge, you've handed them
a free instruction manual to your best
ideas. So, just for some numbers, the US
Patent Office receives about 600,000
applications annually. It grants a
little over half of those 323,000.
Uh that's 2025 data. Uh interestingly
enough, patents uh uh granted have
increased 40% in the last 5 years. My
guess is that is uh secondary to AI.
Palmer's proposed fix isn't to abolish
patents. It's to massively scale up a
national security patent process which
goes back to the Secrecy Act of 1951.
So this obscure mechanism lets inventors
obtain classified patents in which you
keep your exclusive rights but you don't
disclose it to anyone and neither can
the government. So there roughly 6,000
of these uh secure secrecy orders active
in the US. Lucky wants that this edge
case uh is turned into default
mechanism. So here's the question,
right? If we genuinely uh trade this
openness which has been sort of the
basis for American entrepreneurial
exceptionalism uh for a a secret system.
Are we trading safety of having our
patents ripped off against really the
innovative ecosystem that we've had?
Let's watch a short video from uh from
Palmer and then we'll talk about it.
>> Stop patenting everything. Uh patents
are Chinese instruction manual. Well,
the founding fathers never predicted a
world where you would have a globalized
economy where the entire patent office
could be downloaded every single morning
and then ripped off and then used to
fight a war against you. We need to
really fundamentally revisit the patent
system. I think we need to massively
expand the national security patent
process. Uh you can you can obtain a
classified patent. You can get a patent
on something that you are not allowed to
disclose to anyone, but you still
maintain the exclusivity on those
rights. We need to massively expand that
program. So, you know, I've applied for
and gotten a dozen patents. I know Alex,
you have a even a much larger number of
them. Uh, so I'm curious, guys, how do
you come out on this? Alex, do you want
to kick it off?
>> I I think this is the episode of people
uh tech CEOs floating terrible ideas. I
think this is a terrible idea. I I think
the I would argue the invention secrecy
act of 1951 which is I I think what
Palmer is gesturing at has been probably
on balance quite detrimental not just to
democracy uh that if patents so maybe a
bit of context the the way the the
invention secrecy act works is uh it's
it's not that you can just sort of file
the patent in secret and not disclose uh
it it's that basically it can only be
practiced the invention that uh that is
basically confiscated or eminent
domained by the military can only be
practiced for military reasons. It's not
contra uh any construal otherwise that
invention secrecy act somehow offers
legal cover for an individual to
secretly disclose how their invention
works uh under some confidentiality and
then go practice it in general. They
can't. It's that the military
exclusively can practice it and then the
inventor gets royalties from that
practice. That may be good for Andre's
defense business, but I I think in
general terrible idea. Greater concern
that I have is it these are these would
be basically secret monopolies. Uh I I
think it's bad enough that we have
invention secrecy act classification of
inventions query whether entire swaths
of technology that could be completely
transformative economically to the
entire world from an energy perspective
for other domains have somehow without
general knowledge been swept up by the
invention secrecy act and basically
confiscated by the department of war for
purely military reasons. That's that's
very concerning to me. The idea of
expanding it overall. I I would argue if
if anything the invention secrecy act
regime should probably go away.
>> We can have this debate. So Palmer is
going to be joining us at uh at the
moonshots gathering on September 25th in
LA. Everybody go to moonshots.com. We
have an amazing day with the moonshot
mates there. We'll be having these
conversations with Palmer Salem. Uh I
mean the what makes America great is our
open innovation policy. people building
on top of other people's creations. What
are your thoughts here?
>> Look, we've seen this uh problem uh get
bigger and bigger over the last 20 to 30
years, okay? Where the disclosure,
especially in an age of AI where people
can just route around it or replicate or
learn from it, it's it's a huge
challenge. The the real mode is learning
loops. uh that's going to be the real
defensibility is what are your feedback
loops and can you learn in a proprietary
way and then create trade secrets around
that and action that in the marketplace.
Continuous innovation is going to be the
winning defense. It's not going to be
ownership. The only people that win in
this whole in this particular model are
the lawyers.
>> Well said. Um Dave, any thoughts here?
>> Yeah, I think you know if there's a
flash point for a World War III, this is
probably one of the most likely
>> seriously
>> where Yeah. Well, well, you know, look,
Alex is right. We're going to discover
new physics, new medicines at an
incredible accelerating rate. And, you
know, places like Europe respect
intellectual property rights, and that
creates a kind of a coherent economy
where you can trade these things. China
completely ignores intellectual property
rights and and just takes it and runs
with it. Uh, so I think the likely
outcome of that is the US will trade
embargo anybody who doesn't respect
intellectual property rights. then you
have to choose are you part of the you
know the free world or you part of the
alternate world but I think that's the
more likely um outcome and that's going
to happen soon like in the next couple
of years because the rate of innovation
is going to go through the roof but
there's no science fiction future book
I've ever read where there isn't massive
amounts of intellectual property being
created by AI at an incredible
accelerating rate and there's some
vehicle by which innovators can profit
from that and if you don't have that
then you don't have the future you a
huge fraction of brilliant thinkers
coming out of, you know, Cambridge and
MIT and Harvard don't work on
foundational technologies because
there's no money in it. And that's got
to change fundamentally. And protecting
intellectual property rights is a key
key way to reverse that tide and get
people working on really important
things.
>> Y I think to Dave's point also, Palmer
fundamentally misunder or appears to
misunderstand the nature of patents. The
whole point of a patent is that you
disclose how it works in return for a
state granted temporary monopoly on it
and say, you know, sort of belly aching
that the the Chinese are running away
with the disclosure. It is really a
quibble with enforcement of of patent.
It it's not you don't want to throw
necessarily the baby out with the
bathwater and say we want to give away
the the patent trade of disclosure in
return for temporary monopoly. Really
what he should be asking is better
enforcement of US patents in China.
>> Agreed. All right, I'm going to move us
into the world of healthcare abundance.
So, two stories this week are
demonstrating an incredible impact of AI
on healthcare abundance, demonetizing
and democratizing diagnostics uh for
billions of people. The first story is
the performance of GPT 5.6 six saw uh
which was released a couple weeks ago on
healthbench professional which is
openai's hardest medical benchmark uh so
jat GPT or GPT 5.6 saw set a brand new
all-time benchmark high and then the
second part coming out here is in a
blind test across roughly 20,000
individual physician judgments in other
words uh you know diagnos diagnosing for
accuracy safety completeness GPT 5.6 ICS
answers were compared to specialty
matched physicians other words
pulmonologists, pediatricians, whatever,
who were given unlimited uh full access
to the web and unlimited time to answer
and the doctors still lost. So we've got
Chad GPT. We've known this for some time
that these AI diagnostic models are
better than the best physicians given
all the tools that humans can use. The
second part of the story comes from
Meta. So, OpenAI's own healthbench
professional benchmark which is 525 real
clinical tasks. Meta's Muse Spark 1.1
again released last week uh beat chat
GPTs uh or GPT 5.6 Saul on across the
marks and it was 7 times cheaper. But
even better, I mean important to note
here is that Muse Spark is free inside
of all of Meta's products. you know,
WhatsApp and Facebook and Meta today
serves 3.56
billion daily active users using their
products. So, here we've got a situation
where the top medical AI capabilities
are now free to over 3 and a half
billion people on the planet. And that's
just extraordinary. I mean, this is the
abundance thesis at large. Uh and again
as people talk about the concerns of AI
and so forth, please realize this.
People who've never had access to the
best diagnosticians now have them. Sim
there is a there's there's a model in an
AI doctor in China that's being used in
rural environments by 100 million people
already. Right? Basically diagnosis is
has had massive cost collapse. The
healthcare domain is particularly
interesting because it's where abundance
becomes actually morally urgent, right?
If you can deliver way better first
inline answers at at like near zero
cost, it's how quickly can you safely
get it out there? That's the only
question. And so, uh, it's absolutely
and right, let's recognize that in
almost every country in the world,
there's radical doctor shortage.
>> So, this is really, really critical. You
see like this is such a July 2026 story
where think about it Instagram now gives
better medical advice than a human
doctor.
>> It's it's it's pretty pretty wild. It
cost of intelligence not just going too
cheap to meter. Cost of medical
intelligence becoming too cheap to
meter. free basically free. I mean
that's
>> well the the ultimate too cheap to meter
is asmmptoically free right but I I I
would say probably I I in all honesty I
suspect a little bit of mild benchmaxing
by meta on on this meta spark 1.1 is on
if you believe the ai
cost frontier analysis it is on the
optimal cost frontier but it's not at
the top so if it's beating say fable 5
which barely allows you to do anything
biological or GPT 5.6 which does allow
you to do it. That does to me suggest uh
in all honesty a little bit of mild
benchmaxing but still it's it's a great
day when Instagram gives better medical
advice than human doctors.
>> I think that's our that's our takeaway
uh quote from the from today's pod. Um
I'm going to uh move us to one more
longevity story that I love. This is
breaking news from yesterday. Uh and it
really got me excited here. I know you
Alex and I were talking about this. So
for for decades, one of the fundamental
problems of aging uh is the slow
accumulation of of what are called
advanced glycation end products. I love
the acronym. It's called ages. A ge
uh and these are sugar molecules that
cross link and damage your proteins in
your body over the course of time. So
this chemical reaction is called
glycation. And it happens slowly in our
bodies as we age. It stiffens your
arteries. It clouds your lenses with
cataracts. It damages kidneys. wrinkled
skins. And this idea uh is that it's
always been irreversible until this
week. And yesterday in Nature
Communications, a team from a new
startup called Revel Pharmaceuticals
demonstrated an engineered enzyme called
CMLA uh that acts like a molecular lawn
mower. I love their description. A
molecular lawn mower. It oxidizes away
the glycation scars and restores the
original healthy protein underneath. And
amazingly, this isn't happening just in
a test tube. They showed it worked in
human tissue samples from elderly
donors, reversing damage that
accumulated over the lifetime. It's
still early, but the significance of
this cannot be overstated. A category in
aging that we've always filed as
permanent just became reversible. Um and
again we talk about longevity escape
velocity we talk about you know our
ability to understand the 5 billion
chemical reactions per second per cell
in your 40 trillion cells and when we
talk about reaching lev you know escape
velocity by 2033 it's tech like this so
congrats to uh to Revel um in in doing
this
>> and and not just Revel I mean a couple
of interesting notes here it was Revel
and Calico the California Life Company
that was one of the one of the alphabet
other bets that's been I would say like
a lot quieter than say Whimo. Uh they're
still doing work that that's very
encouraging to me that Calico is
apparently deeply involved in this and
and has a heartbeat. A couple of other
points the the broader process here
class of chemical reactions are called
Mayard reactions. It's also the reason
why when you bake bread the the outer
crust is usually brown or chemical
>> or yeah or or it's why this is
vegetarian speaking why everything
purportedly tastes like chicken. Uh it's
the same class of reactions but the the
sugar is reacting with uh the carbonial
um functional group or carbonial uh uh
groups within sugars reacting with um
with the amines in in proteins to to
create broad class of molecules that
that look optically brown. So the same
thing is going on in the human body. To
to me this is very exciting because it's
not quite unscrambling eggs but it's it
it's halfway there. It's it feels almost
it again strictly speaking it's not like
uh reversal of the thermodynamic arrow
of time but it's the next best thing if
if we can remove all of these uh
unwanted sugar plus protein byproducts
that are associated with inflammation
and and other coralates of aging with uh
directed evolution of uh of a protein
that came from bacteria. Like what else
is there out there in the biosphere for
us to mine in addition to all the
obvious glip ones? Great potential for
uh longevity, escape velocity. What
other bacterial innovations can we use
to turn back agent?
>> It's human engineering. We're taking
control. It's going from evolution by
natural selection to evolution by human
direction. And I love that.
>> I'll be I'll be happy when I have
Ramine's hair.
>> That's when I'll be happy.
>> Well, there are lots of companies
working on that, Sem. So gentlemen, uh
grateful for our time today. I'm excited
for Starship 13 launch later today. Wish
Elon and the the group there uh lots of
luck. Uh Reine, congrats on the success
of Liquid AI and and excited to have you
on the pod with us. Dave, great move
investing in Reine. Um
>> on behalf of all of our
Thank you.
>> Yeah, gentlemen. Have an amazing week.
I'm I'm sure we'll be having an
emergency pod very soon because the
speed of the singularity waits for
nobody.
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