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Mira Murati's 975B Open Model, Ramin Hasani on Post-Transformer AI, and Demis' AI FINRA | EP #271

1:56:42EnglishBy Peter H. DiamandisTranscribed Jul 18, 2026
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0:00

Mera Marotti, the former OpenAI CTO,

0:03

just shipped her first model. It's

0:05

called Inkling. Customization over

0:07

leaderboard dominance uh is what's going

0:10

to win her the day.

0:11

>> She's built exactly the thing hitting

0:13

the market that exactly what everybody

0:14

needs. Right now,

0:16

>> I want to pivot to a discussion of

0:18

liquid AI, the small language models,

0:21

what they are, what they mean. Our

0:22

mission has always been building

0:24

efficient generalpurpose AI at every

0:26

scale that explores the computational

0:29

graphs of intelligence beyond

0:31

transformer and then figure out what

0:33

should be that architectural design that

0:36

brings the same level of intelligence

0:38

that a frontier model into let's say on

0:40

on a CPU.

0:42

>> CEOs building the most powerful

0:44

technology in the world are asking to be

0:46

regulated. Demisabi, CEO of DeepMind, he

0:48

called for a US-led frontier AI

0:51

standards body modeled on FINRA. When

0:54

the incumbents ask for the rules and

0:56

they set the standards, they set up a

0:59

barrier for all the entry-level labs

1:01

coming in. Let's just be real. AI moves

1:04

way way too fast for any kind of

1:05

traditional uh bureaucracy. How quickly

1:08

can you do it is going to be huge, huge

1:10

challenge because

1:14

>> now that's a moonshot, ladies and

1:15

gentlemen.

1:18

All right, everybody. Welcome to

1:20

Moonshots, your number one podcast in

1:22

all things AI. Your front row seat to

1:24

the singularity. I'm here with my

1:25

magnificent Moonshot mates, our original

1:28

quartet, AWG, DB2, and Seem, and a

1:31

special guest, Reine Hassani, co-founder

1:34

and CEO of Liquid AI, and a pioneer in

1:37

small language models, which we'll dive

1:39

into. Raine, welcome. Uh, where are you

1:41

this morning, pal?

1:43

>> Thanks so much for having me. I'm

1:45

actually in Spain right now.

1:46

>> In Spain? All right.

1:48

>> There's nothing going on in Spain this

1:49

week.

1:50

>> God damn it.

1:52

>> Yes.

1:52

>> I'm I'm a I'm struggling from yesterday

1:55

cuz I'm a long-suffering England

1:56

supporter.

1:58

>> Um it was a very difficult game to

2:00

watch. God, they were like just had it

2:02

with six minutes to go and they blew it.

2:04

>> Yeah.

2:04

>> And Messi's a genius.

2:05

>> That's the round That's the round ball,

2:07

right? Is that

2:08

>> That's the round ball. Now, Peter, this

2:10

is where the Faulland's war gets

2:12

relitigated on a soccer pitch. Oh god.

2:14

You know, I just flew in last night from

2:17

Zurich and I had the most painful

2:19

experience, right? I don't know why

2:20

every airline doesn't have Starlink. You

2:22

know, I'm suffering on some me, you

2:25

know, some meager thin pipe connection

2:27

and you're flying over the poles over

2:30

the, you know, the Northern Territories

2:32

and there's nothing. And I'm trying to

2:34

get ready for this pod. I was like,

2:35

"Please give me give me some bits." So

2:39

anyway, challenge.

2:40

>> You must have grown up on soccer, right?

2:42

didn't you were in Vienna for a while

2:43

and getting your PhD and or your

2:46

undergrad or whatever it was. Uh

2:48

>> yeah. Yeah. I mean soccer has been like

2:50

a big thing, you know. I'm Persian and

2:52

Austrian like at the same time, you

2:54

know, like it's a big thing for us. So,

2:56

um yeah, like competition is something

2:58

that, you know, uh it's it's extremely

3:00

core to what we do even today, you know.

3:02

So, and uh I feel like that's like one

3:05

of the main drivers like sports and

3:07

everything like has been part of our

3:09

lives like from day one and then getting

3:11

into science the same thing you know now

3:13

getting into ventures same things you

3:15

know and that's uh that's what we're

3:17

doing

3:18

>> just compete compete compete compete I

3:20

love it

3:20

>> well are you there for a little bit of

3:22

time or you coming back soon

3:24

>> no I'm coming I'm I'm flying tomorrow

3:25

actually back to San Francisco

3:27

>> and Salem are you are you jealous of

3:30

everybody of him being in Europe or are

3:31

you happy to No, no. Three weeks

3:33

bouncing around in 10 different spots.

3:35

I'm very happy to be home right now. I

3:38

was just in Spain where me and myself.

3:39

So,

3:40

>> uh, all right.

3:41

>> There was a lot going on actually like

3:42

in in in Europe, you know. So, that's

3:45

>> same same like you 10 different places.

3:48

Then,

3:48

>> you know, Alex and I were just

3:50

reminiscing the fact that Europe's uh

3:52

sort of major advantage in the future is

3:54

it's going to be a museum of the way the

3:56

world used to be. Um,

3:59

ouch. Ouch.

4:02

But it is beautiful. There's no

4:04

question. It is gorgeous. All right, I

4:06

want to jump into our first

4:06

conversation. We have a lot to unpack

4:08

here. And of course, our mission is

4:10

keeping you aware of what's going on in

4:12

the world and giving you sort of the

4:14

optimistic, hopeful vision of the

4:16

future. Uh join us and uh keep up with

4:20

the incredible pace as we head towards a

4:21

singularity. So our first story today,

4:24

once again, CEOs building the most

4:27

powerful technology in the world are

4:29

asking to be regulated. You know, last

4:31

week Sam Alman published an op-ed in the

4:33

Financial Times proposing a framework

4:36

for a US-led international forum that

4:39

would establish standards, provide

4:41

expertise, impartial analysis and

4:43

capabilities, and assess risks. This

4:45

week, both Elon and Demis are adding

4:48

their voice to the regulatory

4:49

conversation. Elon says he expects a

4:52

standalone uh regulator similar to the

4:54

FA or FCC to emerge at some point

4:56

because in his words the consequences of

4:59

AI going wrong are severe. Then this

5:02

week Demisaba CEO of Deep Mind went

5:04

further in an essay titled A Framework

5:06

for Frontier AI and the dawning of a new

5:09

age. He called for a US-led frontier AI

5:12

standards body modeled on FINRA, the

5:15

industry funded watchdog that polices

5:17

Wall Street under SEC oversight. He

5:20

wants the FINRA equivalent to test

5:22

Frontier models before release. He

5:25

reportedly wants this up and operational

5:27

before the end of the year. Let's take a

5:30

look at a quick video from Elon and then

5:32

let's jump into this conversation.

5:35

I think the the general I think it's

5:37

clear that there's a strong consensus

5:39

there should be some AI regulation that

5:41

it would be in the best interests of the

5:42

people to do so and I think we'll

5:44

probably see something happen. I don't

5:46

know on what time frame um or exactly

5:48

how it will manifest itself. I I don't

5:50

know. I mean this there's clearly we've

5:53

created regulatory agencies before. Um

5:55

while our regulatory agencies are not

5:57

perfect um and I deal with regulators on

5:59

a very frequent basis um with automotive

6:03

um you know communications Starlink um

6:06

and then uh FAA with with rockets.

6:08

>> I think the probability of there being

6:10

some sort of AI regulatory agency that

6:12

stands on its own similar to the FAA or

6:14

FCC is likely at some point.

6:16

>> You think so?

6:16

>> I think so. Um,

6:19

now the the reason that I've been such

6:21

an advocate for uh AI safety in advance

6:24

of sort of anything terrible happening

6:26

is that I think the consequences of AI

6:29

going wrong are are severe. Um, so we

6:32

have to be proactive rather than

6:33

reactive.

6:34

>> Um, amazing. So I this is a conversation

6:39

we've seen over and over again and I

6:41

think the government, the public and now

6:43

the CEOs want to be leading this. I like

6:45

the approach that Demis laid out, right?

6:48

Um, but the challenge we have to discuss

6:51

is when the incumbents ask for the rules

6:54

and they set the standards, they set up

6:56

a barrier for all the entry level labs

6:59

coming in.

7:01

See or Dave, do you want to jump in

7:03

first?

7:04

>> I'd be very curious to know, Ramine, if

7:06

uh do they reach out to liquid AI and

7:08

say, "Hey, join this, you know, we're

7:10

going to create a FINRA like regulatory

7:11

body." Um you the reason FINRA works

7:14

fundamentally is because people from the

7:16

industry who know what they're doing are

7:17

willing to join it. They're definitely

7:19

not willing to join the government in

7:20

general, but they're willing to do a

7:22

year or two in a regulatory body. It's

7:25

actually kind of a badge of honor. So

7:27

for this to work in AI, it would have to

7:29

be something cool. And people like

7:31

Ramine or maybe you know some of the

7:32

people on your team would need to come

7:34

into your office and say, "Hey boss, you

7:36

know, I'd love to do this for a year. I

7:38

think it's really good for the world.

7:40

Will you let me do it?" And then you

7:41

would also have to be like yeah this is

7:43

a functional organization go for it. So

7:45

if it passed those two hurdles I mean it

7:47

might it might actually work. I don't

7:49

know what do you think. Yeah, there's

7:50

like you know like there's a capability

7:52

kind of threshold that we we're trying

7:54

to define right now and some some sort

7:56

of an iteration is needed to see like

7:58

how this um how how this framework it

8:02

has to exist you know that's that's for

8:03

sure you know there has this has to be

8:05

there but uh it has to be related to

8:07

capability and then the thing that

8:09

becomes a challenge is that that there's

8:11

a horizontal kind of capability lock

8:13

into like active like let's say like

8:15

enterprise deployment of AI and then

8:17

there's the vertical because if you go

8:19

to different verticals like for example

8:20

we operate on on on device and with

8:23

enterprises that are connected to the

8:24

physical world you know like we're

8:25

connect we are talking to car

8:27

manufacturers like semiconductor

8:28

business you know and laptop business

8:31

you know like people that are building

8:32

like AIPCs and then we are also working

8:34

with financial services and we working

8:36

with like e-commerce and and biotech

8:38

kind of companies and we see like in

8:40

different verticals you know like the

8:42

enterprise applications themselves and

8:45

enterprise criteria for let's say a

8:47

limit or let's say a regulation kind or

8:50

a governance kind of a structure is very

8:52

different you know so for us it becomes

8:54

a lot more kind of verticalized because

8:56

we're building a specialized models and

8:58

those specialized models like

8:59

pervertical we we have had like

9:02

conversations with the DoD and we have

9:03

had like a joint uh uh submission of

9:06

something I think with AMD like pretty

9:08

uh like just recently like we with with

9:10

our team to really have um have a say

9:13

basically like in in in the design of

9:15

like these regulatory kind of things and

9:17

I think as an exploration I think

9:18

Everything has to be like getting

9:20

started. I like to look at it as a game

9:22

theory kind of uh way of uh looking at

9:24

it like how to design like policies in

9:26

general. Like it would be a stake kind

9:28

of game. I don't know if anyone is

9:30

familiar with I don't want to nerd out

9:31

like pretty soon on this but we can we

9:32

can talk about this.

9:34

>> Alexon

9:36

the better.

9:36

>> Sooner the better.

9:37

>> Yeah. So I mean stakeber games like

9:40

essentially like where two policies like

9:42

basic like there's like a you know like

9:44

you have like a policy maker and then

9:45

you have agents or bodies that are

9:47

working in that uh kind of game theory

9:49

kind of optim they they're trying to

9:51

find an equilibrium you know what is the

9:52

optimal policy and what is basically

9:55

which is good for both right and then so

9:58

there's the frequency of action usually

10:00

policy makers are slower than the agents

10:03

in the society you know so if you think

10:05

about like you can you can really model

10:08

like that, right? And then you can uh

10:09

you can figure out like an an

10:11

equilibrium. This is not a Nash

10:13

equilibrium because everything doesn't

10:15

happen simultaneously. Regulations

10:17

happens and then you agents react and

10:20

then you iterate kind of accordingly and

10:22

then you change those uh uh regulations

10:25

basically. So I think

10:26

>> I see you trumping at the bit here

10:28

buddy.

10:29

>> Yeah. So I think I think what Raine is

10:31

saying is exactly right. The problem is

10:33

we have no mechanism for that. Right.

10:35

like

10:37

if you go down the path remain that

10:38

you're talking about you end up with the

10:40

appropriate structures that are adaptive

10:42

and API based or like driven by

10:44

benchmarks or something but the

10:46

mechanism that people have today is just

10:47

static law and the minute you pass the

10:50

law the law is going to be out of date

10:51

right the I I found that the FA and FCC

10:54

analogy is is is pointing in the right

10:57

direction but a let's just be real AI

11:00

moves way way too fast for any kind of

11:02

traditional government bureaucracy

11:05

Right. So, you're going to need you're

11:07

going to need a standards body. You're

11:09

going to need real-time audits. And

11:10

you're going to need open evaluation

11:12

suites. Um otherwise, you're going to

11:13

end up otherwise you're going to end up

11:15

in political gatekeeping and then you're

11:17

in a mess. The problem

11:19

>> isn't that what's good about FINRA. It's

11:21

not a government agency. It's an

11:23

industryfunded self-regulatory org.

11:26

>> Uh it is, but then the teeth go to the

11:29

uh SEC, which is essentially being

11:31

dismantled right now. So there's all

11:33

sorts of issues here. I I I I think the

11:36

the trend is correct, but how quickly

11:38

can you do it is going to be huge huge

11:40

challenge because forget passing a law,

11:43

passing a structure where you have a new

11:45

construct like this takes a long time

11:47

and it takes forever uh in Europe. I

11:50

>> I think Ramine nailed two things that

11:51

are very different from FINRA right out

11:53

of the gate. One of them is, you know,

11:55

at Vesmark, if somebody on our executive

11:57

team said, "Hey, I want to be part of

11:58

FINRA for a couple years." We would say,

12:00

"Sure, put on your suit and tie. go to,

12:02

you know, go to the meetings, come back

12:04

in two years, we'll still be here.

12:06

You're not going to do that. Like if

12:07

Alexander Amini or Matias Lechner came

12:10

into your office or said, "Hey, I I'm

12:12

going to check out for 3 weeks." You'd

12:13

be like, "No, you you can't do that

12:15

right now." So it's difference number

12:16

one is nobody's going to carve out the

12:18

time to do something for years like they

12:20

do at FINRA. The the other big

12:22

difference is AI can help regulate

12:24

itself and FINRA, there's no equivalent

12:27

to that in FINRA. It's all people just

12:28

chatting for long periods of time. But

12:31

you know when you start talking about

12:32

Nash equilibriums and other ways to to

12:34

automate the process of regulation

12:36

that's a big big difference as well. So

12:38

the FINRA analogy has some legs but you

12:41

know the differences are bigger than the

12:42

similarities.

12:43

>> Alex is I want to hear your voice on

12:45

this B.

12:45

>> I I tend to think this is a bad idea. It

12:48

smells like regulatory capture. It

12:50

smells like the attempted formation by

12:52

Demis of a cartel of Frontier Labs. And

12:55

I think the elephant in this particular

12:57

room is openweight models and research

13:00

that lives outside of the frontier

13:02

capabilities. And it's very easy to

13:05

imagine a future with FINRA or or other

13:09

I mean worst case scenario FDA like

13:11

capability even though outgoing

13:13

personnel from the current

13:14

administration have declared uh with in

13:17

no uh no equivocal terms that there is

13:21

going to be no FDA for AI regulation.

13:24

that that would be maybe on the the

13:25

worst case end of the spectrum that we

13:29

we see the emergence of some sort of

13:31

cartel of frontier labs that locks in

13:33

certain practices, certain price

13:36

performance optimal frontiers that try

13:39

to box out open weight or open-source or

13:43

uh say university driven or other

13:47

nonincumbent

13:48

frontier models and I think that would

13:49

be an utter disaster for both the west

13:52

and the world for continuing to advance

13:55

us towards everinccreasing super

13:57

intelligence capabilities. I I just

13:59

don't think it's a good idea.

14:00

>> You know, and the other elephant the

14:02

other elephant in the room here is these

14:04

CEOs who are asking for some level of

14:07

regulation I I think are are looking for

14:10

a backs stop. You know, if things go

14:11

wrong, they want to be able to point at

14:13

someone else. Now, I mean, we're all

14:15

super fans of the optimistic vision of

14:18

AI, but there's going to be issues that

14:20

materialize. is there going to be rogue

14:22

AIs that take down a power grid or take

14:25

down you know stock market or something

14:26

like that for some period of time and I

14:29

I guess they you there going to be

14:32

lawsuits flying as a result of that

14:34

unless there's a regulatory body that

14:36

that backs stops these large these large

14:39

models and these large frontier labs

14:41

>> maybe uh there are I think at least two

14:43

different frames that one can look at

14:45

the liability side from there's regulate

14:48

the inputs that is to say like have

14:50

something that's FINRA like or FDA like

14:52

that regulates the raw capabilities of

14:54

the models at model construction time.

14:57

That that's one end of a spectrum. The

14:59

other end of the spectrum is regulating

15:01

the actions of the models. Like you you

15:03

let the lawsuits fly if if a model takes

15:06

down a stock market or does something

15:08

else that uh otherwise harms third

15:10

parties. That's the other end of the

15:12

spectrum. It's not obvious to me that we

15:14

should be in the business of regulating

15:16

super intelligence at super intelligence

15:18

time. That's that's maybe tantamount to

15:21

thought policing the AIS. And I'm I'm

15:23

not generally a fan of that notion of

15:26

let's thought police the AIS but not

15:28

thought police the humans. We don't at

15:29

least in in the West have a practice of

15:32

regulating what's in our minds. We we

15:34

don't have a practice or a tradition of

15:36

regulating an upper limit say or via

15:39

some sort of regulatory code saying

15:41

humans uh natural persons can't be above

15:45

some level of intelligence. is not

15:46

obvious to me why we would create a new

15:49

tradition of regulating or otherwise

15:51

coordinating the upper intelligence of

15:53

non-natural uh entities perhaps soon to

15:56

be persons but regulating the actions

15:59

that in at least the western legal

16:01

cannon that we do do and that I'd be

16:03

much more supportive of.

16:04

>> So do you Alex, let me ask you a pointed

16:06

question here. Do you think that this,

16:08

you know, sort of outcry for regulation

16:10

by the large frontier labs is is

16:13

regulatory capture that they're just

16:15

trying to build a moat against uh

16:17

further players coming in? Or do you

16:19

think they actually want to provide some

16:22

level of safety? What's their underlying

16:24

driver here?

16:25

>> I I worry that it's more regulatory

16:27

capture and creating moes for themselves

16:30

in a hyperco competitive landscape. And

16:32

it is h I mean, it is a rat race at this

16:34

point, the frontier. And I I I do worry

16:36

that it's more regulatory capture than

16:38

it is some notion of protecting the the

16:41

future here. Seem, what do you think?

16:45

>> Uh, not workable.

16:47

>> Well, I know that, but do you think do

16:48

you think it's regulatory capture or do

16:49

you think that the that these CEOs are

16:51

trying to just make sure we've got a

16:52

safety a safety net of some type?

16:55

>> I I I'd say it's like 50/50, but I think

16:58

there's a bigger problem. There's an

16:59

elephant in the room here. Some

17:01

>> there's already an elephant in the room.

17:03

We have a room has to accommodate so

17:05

many elephants. We need some other

17:07

non-human animals.

17:08

>> Better get a bigger room. You've got uh

17:10

non-state actors and other folks that

17:13

won't listen to this structure and

17:15

you're back to square one. What's the

17:17

What's the point? I'm going to say it

17:19

again. I've said this repeatedly. I see

17:21

no mechanism to regulate AI. It's moving

17:24

way too quickly. Any regulatory is

17:26

static.

17:28

>> And so it's going to have

17:30

position on that one. just if I may

17:31

Peter narrowly on that I mean there are

17:34

definitely hypothetical mechanisms and

17:36

that I'm not supportive of for

17:38

regulating AI like we royal we the the

17:41

US and China if going back to I think we

17:44

gestured at it in a past pod but uh past

17:47

proposals to say regulate the foundaries

17:49

regulate the chip outputs regulate the

17:51

data centers establish mutually assured

17:54

destruction type schemes where the US is

17:56

monitoring Chinese data centers and vice

17:58

versa like there are There are schemes

18:02

there are schemes at choke holds as

18:04

Peter says in the supply chain by which

18:07

one could imagine doing this

18:09

>> interesting mechanism

18:11

>> the only mechanism it's going to be like

18:14

a pandemic style threat detection that

18:17

would be globally agreed and I don't see

18:19

how we get there

18:20

>> well you don't need global you just need

18:21

US and China right the rest of the world

18:23

is is basically outside those blocks or

18:25

inside those blocks

18:26

>> all right well I think my guess There's

18:30

probably a poly market out there uh we

18:32

can we can look at and if someone wants

18:34

to search on it you know the question of

18:36

will we have a regulatory body by end of

18:38

the year right we have Demis saying by

18:41

the end of this year you know Elon

18:43

stepping up uh and and Sam obviously

18:46

trying to on his own on the side trying

18:50

to push for this so when the three

18:51

largest labs uh are pushing for it my

18:54

guess is the government will latch on

18:56

and will do this I don't think it's a

18:58

matter of if it's only a matter of when

19:01

and what the structure will be.

19:03

>> Well, I I should also note that Elon

19:05

clip I think is from three years ago,

19:07

which is interesting. You know, it's

19:08

from three years ago because Elon had

19:10

his sort of like painted on uh Iron Man

19:13

goatee uh when he was in that that that

19:16

phase. Uh so, so Elon's been forecasting

19:18

this for at least three years. Others

19:20

have been forecasting it for decades. We

19:22

still don't have it. We have like

19:24

subdivisions orgs within NIST that are

19:26

uh working on standards but that's not

19:29

really regulatory body. We have

19:31

executive orders that are creeping

19:33

towards a regular regulatory body. But

19:35

you know at what point it do we sort of

19:37

are we frogs boiling in water where

19:40

there's just like a creeping roll out of

19:42

increased standards expectations of

19:45

early reviews but it never quite reaches

19:48

regulatory agency level before we

19:51

achieve whatever escape velocity we're

19:52

heading towards.

19:54

>> Well, uh we're going to monitor this one

19:55

closely for everybody. I I think my

19:58

guess is we see this before the end of

20:00

the year and the question is can we see

20:02

something that's intelligent. Uh let's

20:04

go to the next story which is related uh

20:06

and this is a wild one comes from the

20:08

Washington Post that the White House is

20:10

reportedly weighing a capability

20:11

framework that would clear US models

20:14

open or closed as long as they stay at

20:17

or below the level of China's best

20:19

openweight model. What's the

20:21

translation? So the proposed ceiling for

20:23

what American companies can openly

20:25

release is pegged to what China has

20:27

already put out on the internet for

20:30

free. So here's the logic. Chinese

20:32

openweight models reportedly trail US

20:34

models an average of 7 months. I think

20:36

that's been closing over time. Uh so if

20:40

anything is at or below that, it's

20:43

already out there. It's an implicit

20:45

admission that open models cannot be

20:47

unshipped. Models like deepseek have

20:50

already been downloaded millions of

20:51

times. So once China releases a model

20:55

freely, banning it is impossible. So the

20:58

US response is to define a permissible

21:00

ceiling rather than a wall. The

21:02

implications were tying our open release

21:05

ceiling to China's pace of release

21:07

effectively giving you know Beijing

21:09

control. If they push their open weight

21:12

models higher then the US can release

21:14

higher models as well. If China holds

21:16

back, then they throttle us. And it's a

21:19

very strange mechanism. I was surprised

21:22

to see this. Alex, let's go to you first

21:24

on this one. What do you think of this?

21:26

>> Uh, I mean, the the obvious note here is

21:28

this creates the perverse incentive to

21:30

let China win the race to ever greater

21:32

super intelligence so that Western

21:34

models and western labs can escape

21:36

regulation. I'm not a fan of this. Uh uh

21:40

raine gesturing at you from a game

21:42

theoretic perspective. This is the I

21:44

think this would be the moral equivalent

21:46

of throwing the steering wheel out the

21:47

window in in a game of chicken. Not such

21:50

a great idea. Not supportive of this.

21:52

>> I love that. Oh my god. See, what do you

21:56

make of this? Is this just perverse

21:57

Washington DC logic?

22:00

>> Yes. This is like trying to uninvent the

22:02

printing press. I mean you we're

22:04

throwing the kitchen sink at things

22:06

trying to to to solve something that's

22:08

already a problem. The you you have to

22:11

move from like prevention and whatever

22:13

to adaptation. You have to go to that

22:14

and we we don't have the mechanisms for

22:16

that.

22:16

>> I mean you know I mean would you even

22:20

listen to this?

22:23

I mean what what logic

22:25

>> you might

22:27

>> well

22:28

>> what do you think of this? I mean the if

22:31

I just look at the the the the

22:33

progression of the technology itself

22:34

like it's it's getting into into the

22:37

place where like you AI are designing AI

22:40

like we you're doing the same things and

22:41

all of the labs are doing this and the

22:43

pace it's just the pace of model

22:45

development is like getting so so so

22:47

much smaller you know that is um is

22:50

becoming like exponentially more more

22:52

difficult to really like impose any any

22:55

of these type of constraints and I know

22:57

like they had these type of

22:58

conversations But it's just at the level

23:00

of conversations, you know, like these

23:01

are the things that are getting leaked

23:02

outside of

23:03

>> White House for ideas.

23:07

>> Let me let me give a headline from for

23:09

Alex for for his next newsletter. Um,

23:12

the singularity is becoming a trade

23:14

dispute

23:15

>> for the next newsletter. That was like

23:17

two newsletters ago.

23:18

>> Okay, fine. Whatever. That's out

23:20

already, but thank you.

23:22

Um, you know, I can just imagine where a

23:24

US Frontier Lab CEO calls DeepC can say,

23:27

"Would you please accelerate your next

23:29

model release? We want to get ours out

23:31

as well."

23:32

>> Or you see worst case scenario. I mean,

23:34

there there's actually a an even worse

23:36

scenario, which is you start to see the

23:37

the best, if not Western labs, unlikely,

23:40

the best Western researchers move to

23:42

China to escape this regulatory

23:45

framework. That would be a disaster. I I

23:47

think and and we've seen this, by the

23:49

way. There's precedent for this. We saw

23:51

this in biotech where China now exceeds

23:53

the west in terms of number of trials.

23:55

Like China is experiencing a biotech

23:57

boom that could happen in AI as well

23:59

disaster.

23:59

>> It's it's much more specific than that.

24:01

If you look at all the quantization

24:02

research, all the best stuff came out of

24:04

Microsoft research in China. All those

24:06

people now are at Chinese labs. They're

24:08

not they're not still working for US

24:10

companies.

24:11

>> China ran away with turnery and one bit

24:13

quantization. You see a little bit of

24:15

Western research. I don't think we're

24:17

talking that much about it in in this

24:18

episode. you see a little bit of uh

24:20

encouraging western research on like one

24:22

bit or 1.58 bit quantization but China

24:25

ran away with it due to constraints.

24:26

>> Yeah, it's a new company.

24:28

>> Look, this is a huge problem, right?

24:30

Because over we've seen throughout

24:32

history that open ecosystems always win

24:35

>> and this is not open versus closes which

24:38

open ecosystem wins and the US's

24:41

historical strength has been open per

24:43

ecosystems with permissionless

24:45

innovation. you like abandoning that

24:48

would be the weirdestly strategically

24:50

bizarre thing we've ever seen.

24:51

>> Yeah. The the other I mean there's even

24:54

a meta worry I have which is how do we

24:56

even define capabilities and and I worry

24:59

a little bit not just about regulatory

25:00

capture of the labs themselves. I think

25:03

there's actually so so sorry to be like

25:05

a a meta doomer here. uh there's a worst

25:08

worst worst case scenario which is we

25:11

freeze in or otherwise lock in the

25:13

benchmarks for how we measure

25:14

capabilities and that that would be I

25:17

think maybe even worse than just locking

25:19

in the incumbents as labs because if if

25:21

someone somewhere ratifies all right

25:23

like whatever index of evals this is

25:27

going to be the rubric going forward for

25:29

how we measure what's above the

25:31

threshold for frontier versus below

25:33

what's a frontier model versus not I I

25:36

worry that could so distort model

25:38

capabilities like they'll overex

25:39

exercise certain capabilities

25:40

deliberately and perversely under

25:43

incentivize or underbenchmax others that

25:45

it'll just totally distort maybe topize

25:48

the the future landscape of super

25:50

intelligent capabilities.

25:53

>> All right. Well, again this is a story

25:56

that we'll be we'll be following on this

25:58

news of ope models. So in the past

26:00

>> there's our topiary right there. In the

26:03

past, we've been discussing how ope

26:05

models uh have been in the US have been

26:07

lagging in China. We have Nvidia's

26:09

Neotron 3. We've got Google Gemma 4. But

26:13

that changed last night with some

26:15

breaking news. Mera Marotti, the former

26:17

OpenAI CTO, uh who walked out and raised

26:21

her one of the largest seed rounds ever.

26:24

Uh it was incredible uh financing she

26:27

pulled off in the background. just

26:29

shipped her first model uh for her

26:31

startup called Thinking Machine Labs.

26:33

It's called Inkling. It's an Opalweight

26:35

Foundation AI model that can be

26:37

downloaded by anyone, fine-tuned and run

26:40

on prem on your own hardware. Uh the

26:42

specs are serious. Uh it's a mixture of

26:44

experts model with 975 billion total

26:48

parameters. Only fires 41 billion at any

26:50

one time. So it keeps it, you know,

26:52

keeps the model going fast and cheap. It

26:54

was trained on 45 trillion tokens of

26:56

text, image, audio, and video. And very

26:59

importantly, reasons natively across all

27:01

four. Reuters Muse framed it exactly

27:04

right. Quote, "This is meant to be a

27:06

western alternative to the Chinese opate

27:08

models, Deep Seek and Quinn, that have

27:10

dominated the opo leaderboards." Uh,

27:12

now, interestingly enough, Maradi her

27:15

bet is contrarian here. She's not

27:17

claiming it's the best model on Earth.

27:19

Her own blog says so. Uh she's betting

27:22

that an AI that AI companies can adapt

27:25

her models for themselves. That

27:27

customization over leaderboard dominance

27:30

uh is what's going to win her the day.

27:33

>> You you've you've hit there, Peter, on

27:35

the really big thing. She's making this

27:38

she's pushing on the customization lever

27:41

>> and this because it's not going to be

27:43

the future is the raw power. It's going

27:44

to be the adaptability that's going to

27:46

win. And this is she's built exactly the

27:48

thing hitting the market that exactly

27:50

what everybody needs right now

27:51

>> and people owning their own models

27:54

working on prem and not giving their you

27:57

know uh their controls to the large

27:59

frontier models. I mean I I I do hope

28:01

this begins the race for powerful

28:03

openweight models in the United States.

28:06

>> Well it's it's worth looking at the raw

28:08

capabilities. So if you believe the eval

28:11

hopefully that thinking machines aka

28:13

thinky has released it's stronger than

28:16

neatron which is great like neatron

28:18

you'll recall from past pod where we

28:20

were discussing Alex karp's rant on

28:23

sovereignty of models neatron is one of

28:26

the incumbents at least on the American

28:28

side for openweight frontier models so

28:30

this this seems to be at least according

28:32

to the eels that think he's released

28:34

stronger than nematron which is great so

28:35

the the west now has a new frontier here

28:38

openweight model. It's weaker than GLM

28:41

5.2 which is arguably the strongest or

28:44

one of the strongest Chinese openweight

28:46

models and openweight models overall. So

28:48

it's not it's not one of the strongest

28:50

openweight models overall in the world.

28:51

It's obviously weaker than the closed

28:53

weight western frontier models. But I I

28:55

think point one it's great to have

28:58

better stronger western openweight

29:00

models. Point two, I I think it raises

29:03

the question, why has the West been so

29:05

bad at releasing frontier openweight

29:08

models and why has China been so good at

29:10

it? And I think it comes down to you

29:13

show me the incentives and I'll show you

29:15

the outcomes. I think the west has been

29:18

poorly incentivized to release strong

29:20

openweight models because these API

29:22

based frontier models are just such a

29:24

good business model. And we see

29:25

Anthropic about to IPO at a trillion

29:27

dollars and we see OpenAI planning to

29:30

eventually IPO at a trillion dollars.

29:32

And in China, which has been GPU and

29:36

compute deprived on the one hand, and on

29:38

the other hand has the CCP declaring

29:40

5-year AI plus plans to integrate AI

29:43

into the rest of society. has all of the

29:46

incentives a different incentive

29:48

structure than what the west has. China

29:50

has been much more incentive

29:52

incentivized to make money from the

29:54

integrations between AI upstack on

29:57

applications like robots and downstack

29:59

into the chips than the west has which

30:01

is more horizontally stratified. So to

30:04

the extent that thinky has been

30:06

incentivized in the west due to

30:08

competition and due to just a saturation

30:11

of the frontier by the closed weight

30:12

models into looking a little bit more

30:15

dare I say Chinese in terms of their

30:18

outlook and their incentive structure. I

30:20

think this is very helpful to finally

30:22

have enough competition in the west

30:24

that's creating ways to monetize

30:26

openweight models other than just per

30:29

token sales namely selling them into

30:31

enterprises and what you incentivize.

30:35

>> Two more.

30:36

>> Two more thing. I agree wholeheartedly,

30:38

but also you have to note that OpenAI

30:40

started open source open weight and then

30:43

went closed big revenue and uh Meta also

30:47

was the leader of

30:49

what happened to now it's closed. No,

30:51

they they have a new model out and it's

30:53

it's closed API. I mean, it's exactly

30:55

what Alex said. If you throw your model

30:57

out there as open source, what's your

30:58

revenue model? So I think, you know,

31:00

there's a real possibility that that you

31:02

put a data point on the map with a a

31:04

really solid open- source release that's

31:06

not quite on the frontier. You generate

31:08

news, then you have a data point on the

31:11

line, then you do another, then you do

31:12

another, and then when you have

31:13

something really groundbreaking, then

31:15

you go closed source and you launch an

31:16

API into corporate America. And so that

31:18

that's a wellworn path. So I wouldn't I

31:21

wouldn't say this is necessarily a

31:22

religion at thinking machines that

31:24

they're going to stick with. You know,

31:25

the trend has been the opposite of that

31:27

in the past. Raine what?

31:28

>> They're they're leaning into fine-tuning

31:29

as a service. If fine-tuning as a

31:31

service becomes like something at scale

31:34

revenue generation wise, I think maybe

31:36

this has legs, but who knows?

31:37

>> Yeah, it's a matter of like the business

31:39

of the company, you know, like thinking

31:41

machine can do uh three more iterations

31:44

of their pre-training or post- training

31:46

kind of RL kind of environments and

31:47

benchmarks like those numbers that you

31:49

see on the benchmarks and release like a

31:51

like a better model. But what they what

31:54

what what their business is their

31:55

business is fine-tuning. Like this is

31:57

kind of the place where customization

31:59

has been like something that everything

32:01

like the whole the whole market around

32:03

customization has been very empty. Like

32:05

if you look at the first attempts like

32:06

OpenAI released the OpenAI tuning like

32:08

fine-tuning kind of 3 years ago or

32:10

something it never took off. So they

32:12

took like a really good uh approach on

32:15

designing the base for fine-tuning

32:17

larger instance of the models for

32:19

enterprises because as you see like the

32:21

model layer is not anymore like you know

32:24

like the the the place where you can

32:25

actually extract value especially if

32:27

you're not hitting the maximum frontiers

32:29

you know like uh and even the open

32:31

weight kind of models when we're talking

32:33

about sovereign AI and integration of

32:35

these models into enterprises you need

32:37

to leave some room for let's say

32:39

fine-tuning these models and what they

32:41

have what what I think their business

32:43

strategy around what they're doing and

32:45

this release is genius because they're

32:47

deliberately releasing they're they're

32:49

putting they're leaving some room for

32:52

fine-tuning so that people can come in

32:54

and using their business uh uh their API

32:57

business because that's even generating

32:59

if I think in the order of uh one to two

33:02

orders of magnitude more tokens as well

33:04

you know on the on the on the

33:05

customization side so that would be like

33:07

even printing money at a larger speed

33:09

like in the in the in

33:11

absolute best case right

33:14

business entry

33:15

>> to to add to Raine's point I I think the

33:17

situation maybe is is even more extreme

33:20

so a couple points one OpenAI was the

33:22

first to my knowledge to launch

33:24

reinforcement fine-tuning RF as a

33:26

service and no one used it uh the the

33:29

whole tech world everyone I speak with

33:31

no one used it uh it was barely

33:33

advertised by OpenAI second point open

33:36

AAI shut off their fine-tuning API open

33:39

AI was one of the earliest if not the

33:41

first to offer fine-tuning as a service.

33:44

>> We used it all the time. It was it was

33:46

incredibly cool for its time

33:48

>> and they they've just they recently in

33:50

the past few months they announced it it

33:52

has either already been wound down or

33:54

about to be wound down. The fine-tuning

33:55

API has been shut off. So that I mean it

33:57

raises the question is is thinking

33:59

machines bet like explicitly contrarian?

34:02

Are they thinking that we're going to

34:04

end up in a world where reinforcement

34:06

fine-tuning and RL fine-tuning in in

34:09

general and fine-tuning like that's the

34:11

paradigm? They may be right, they may be

34:13

wrong. There there's an alternative

34:15

vision where RF just dies. Uh and we the

34:19

the baseline models are so generalist in

34:22

terms of their capabilities that all you

34:24

need is prompt engineering and there's

34:26

no need for RF at all. Alex, you talked

34:29

about the Alex Karp rant, right? Yes,

34:32

the result of that was um don't allow

34:36

don't use a model that is has all of

34:39

your data open to your competition. And

34:42

I do think we're going to see a real

34:43

push over the next months to years where

34:46

people want to use fine-tuned opate

34:49

models that they own on their own

34:51

hardware in their you know onrem and if

34:54

that's the case then the question is who

34:56

are they going to use which models are

34:57

they going to use are you know and is

34:59

the US going to start to regulate

35:01

against Chinese openweight models in

35:04

which case a dominant US openweight

35:06

model is going to take is going to have

35:08

an advantage and so is that the bet

35:10

mirror is going after um you know we're

35:13

going to probably see my guess is Google

35:15

step up in this area as well very

35:17

shortly you know take Gemma 4 to the

35:18

next level and hopefully we get some you

35:21

know two or three major in the same way

35:23

we have a closed you know the closed

35:25

model Frontier Labs competing and

35:27

dominating in the US hopefully we'll see

35:29

that competition give birth to you know

35:32

very strong opio models

35:33

>> it just to build on something you know

35:35

Alex and Verine were saying you know if

35:36

I compare today to a month ago you know

35:38

we've been fine-tuning Quen all week and

35:40

and the idea of using Inkling sounds

35:42

really compelling to me and you know our

35:44

companies are using liquid as well. A

35:46

month ago to fine-tune these things with

35:48

some huge engineering effort that

35:50

required AI experts. Now with Fable 5,

35:53

it's just a prompt.

35:55

>> So let's back up one second. Dave,

35:57

explain what fine-tuning a model is for

35:59

those who don't know.

35:59

>> Well, you know, back when GPT2 and GPT3

36:01

came out, you could actually very easily

36:03

fine-tune by uploading text right into a

36:05

window and say, "Look, you're pretty

36:07

smart, but you don't know anything about

36:08

my laundromat." you know like what hours

36:11

were open now who our employees are

36:13

entire payroll let me dump that data in

36:15

too and retrain the model with that

36:18

knowledge and if you didn't do that you

36:20

couldn't do anything useful because it

36:22

didn't have this holistic I know

36:23

everything capability back then so

36:25

without the fine-tuning it was

36:26

borderline useless to to use the models

36:29

then the models got so smart that

36:31

they're pre-trained with now 45 trillion

36:33

tokens which is basically every word

36:36

ever written by humanity has already

36:38

been trained into the model so people

36:39

tend to use them in their vanilla form

36:41

today and just say here write this code

36:43

for me or here drive this car for me

36:45

because it's already in there but then

36:47

when you get into biotech research or

36:49

you get into aeronautical or the

36:50

Mercedes you know like Ramina is doing

36:52

there's a whole bunch of proprietary

36:54

company knowledge that actually isn't in

36:56

the model so right now we dump it into

36:58

the prompt field and say okay here it is

37:00

in prompt form but that's hugely

37:02

inefficient

37:02

>> and you dump it into open AI and you

37:05

dump it into anthropics uh you know

37:07

model which now makes it accessible to

37:10

everybody else as well. I mean,

37:11

>> yeah. Yeah. I mean, Sam Sam and Dario

37:13

can see everything. All your proprietary

37:15

information, they're looking right at

37:16

it. That's what Alex Karp was ranting

37:18

about when he said, "They're stealing

37:19

your weights. They're stealing your

37:20

alpha." What he really means is they're

37:22

looking at your most proprietary your

37:25

company payroll, your company's secrets,

37:26

your your your chemical research. Like,

37:28

it's all going right over the wire to

37:31

these foundation labs. Is that what you

37:33

want? And of course, you know, for

37:34

defense and for banking, of course,

37:36

that's not what you want. And so now the

37:38

ability to bring the model in-house and

37:40

fine-tune it with your local data is a

37:42

huge is a huge unlock. But the the

37:44

higher level point is now the

37:46

technological capability to do it

37:47

relatively easily is hugely better today

37:50

than it was a month ago. So I think

37:52

mirror may be on to something here.

37:53

We've hit a real tipping point and Alex

37:55

Carp I think is right about it too.

37:57

>> I think there's two things that also

37:59

that that I saw that were really

38:00

interesting here. One is a very big

38:02

context window like a million tokens

38:04

because that means you can do a lot with

38:05

it. And the second is multimodality.

38:07

>> Yes.

38:08

>> And so this is aiming squarely at

38:10

organizational use. This fits perfectly

38:13

into the onrem proprietary data um model

38:17

where you you take your data customize

38:20

and fine-tune as you said Dave and that

38:22

will be the future. A couple of historic

38:25

notes again for for those uh

38:27

definitionally uh not tracking the the

38:30

full sorted history of fine-tuning. So

38:31

fine-tuning is is this notion that you

38:34

you start with a model. Model consists

38:36

of billions usually these days of

38:39

weights of parameters that are frozen.

38:41

And if you want to customize the model

38:44

for your purposes, you can conduct a

38:46

so-called fine-tuning process that

38:48

usually makes relatively small, hence

38:51

the fine changes to some usually a a

38:54

tiny subset of the weights in order to

38:56

customize the model for your end

38:58

application. That's fine tuning. There's

39:00

actually now decent literature out there

39:02

that suggests that conventional

39:04

finetuning like supervised fine-tuning

39:05

Laura style low rank uh adapter uh one

39:09

class of fine-tuning architectures

39:11

doesn't result in increasing the

39:13

capabilities of your model at all. And

39:14

at most it it results in like a style

39:17

transfer like you could fine-tune a

39:19

language model to only speak in

39:20

Shakespearean verse for example that's

39:23

not really increasing its capabilities

39:26

>> or only be an accelerando flavor output.

39:29

Well, uh, no comment. Uh, but but I I I

39:34

I would say historically fine-tuning

39:36

didn't have a history of increasing

39:38

capabilities. Then along came

39:40

reinforcement fine-tuning where for the

39:42

first time via large amounts of

39:44

synthetic data uh and giving access to

39:47

all of the weights and and not just like

39:49

a subset that's convenient to train. we

39:52

gained the ability and you know

39:53

fine-tuning post- training there there's

39:55

a there's a gray area between you know

39:57

what what's the distinction between them

39:59

but with reinforcement fine-tuning RFT

40:02

uh and the the release of the first

40:04

generation of reasoning models we saw

40:05

fine-tuning actually start to increase

40:08

the capabilities of the models now the

40:09

problem with thinking machines business

40:12

model as as I understand it is it's a

40:14

bet on the flavor of the moment that

40:17

reinforcement fine-tuning is going to be

40:19

a paradigm in the future right now

40:21

obviously the paradigm of the moment

40:23

that you could take an off-the-shelf

40:25

model and RFT your way to customization

40:28

with proprietary data and proprietary

40:31

environments and other things that that

40:32

seems to work pretty well at the moment.

40:34

But in some sense, if that is like the

40:37

permanent long-term plan of thinking

40:38

machines, it's fundamentally a bet that

40:41

we're not going to ever move beyond the

40:44

reinforcement fine-tuning paradigm,

40:46

which I think is probably wrong. I I

40:48

think probably RFT is the scaling of the

40:51

moment, but in the future, I can totally

40:54

imagine a generalistbased model that is

40:56

just so generally capable that it

40:59

doesn't actually benefit from any

41:01

further reinforcement finetuning on any

41:03

internal data sets and we tend towards

41:05

ASI. Let me bring up another key point

41:07

here on this story which is uh in the in

41:10

the context which is it's great to see a

41:13

woman CEO in the AI frontier lab area. I

41:17

think women are distinctly missing from

41:20

the entire AI industry, right? We have

41:23

Lisa Sue from AMD, but very few in

41:27

leadership positions. And I I think

41:29

that's an important point. I'm not sure

41:31

who else you know, Alex, are you seeing

41:35

>> Daniela Roose right where

41:38

Fe is also

41:40

>> and Fay Lee. Yeah. But again, we're

41:42

talking about what singledigit percent

41:44

of the AI industry is is women. Uh and

41:47

we need more. So, a call out to every

41:49

all the women out there, please jump

41:51

into this industry. We need uh

41:53

>> we we we need more balanced thinking.

41:55

>> Yeah, for sure. I mean, I I I do think

41:58

that's an important point to pull out

42:00

here.

42:00

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43:04

>> All right. Um let's move on to our our

43:07

next story here. Uh

43:11

it is uh a a fun one. Uh Alex, I was

43:15

walking in the streets of uh where was I

43:18

yesterday? Zurich. And I saw this come

43:20

up and I said, "Hey, let's talk about

43:22

this tomorrow." And and you said yes. Uh

43:25

so here is the uh the story we've talked

43:28

about the holy grail of AI is recursive

43:31

of self-improvement. It's sort of like

43:32

the holy grail of the launch industry

43:34

was reusable rockets. Um this you know

43:38

RSI is a holy grail for AI. It's the

43:40

idea that AI makes itself smarter. Uh

43:44

and then you use that smarter AI to

43:46

create the next generation of AI. It's

43:49

sort of the theoretical engine behind

43:51

the hard takeoff scenario of the

43:52

singularity. So this week, a startup

43:55

called Wo AI uh with researcher Zeng Yao

43:59

Jang uh published what they call

44:01

experimental evidence for the first

44:04

recursive self-improvement. Whether

44:05

they're first or not, Alex, I'll ask you

44:07

about that. They built a system called

44:09

AIdriven exploration squared, aid

44:12

squared, with an outer AI agent whose

44:15

job is to rewrite the code and the

44:17

research strategy for an inner AI agent.

44:20

In their experiment, they claim that 8

44:22

days of machine self-improvement beat

44:25

two years of expert human effort. So,

44:28

Alex, what do you make about this? Is it

44:30

the first uh is it significant?

44:33

Very significant. Highly unlikely that

44:35

this is anywhere close to first. So, so

44:37

a few bits of additional context. One,

44:39

uh this is actually this WICO is a

44:41

startup that's based in London.

44:43

Interestingly, it's not based in the US,

44:45

but still western sphere. So, great. Uh

44:48

so this is a startup built by a bunch of

44:49

as I understand it uh UC London grads.

44:53

Secondly a few points that I love about

44:56

this story. One it's an example of

44:59

defensive co-scaling which so to to the

45:02

extent we talk about alignment AI

45:04

alignment on the pod and I'm I'm always

45:06

banging the the drum of defensive

45:08

co-scaling as the ultimate alignment

45:10

strategy.

45:11

>> What does that mean? So defensive

45:13

co-scaling is the idea uh borrowed by

45:16

analogy from human alignment

45:18

human-touman alignment that rather than

45:20

hoping for call it the great man theory

45:22

of alignment that someone somewhere is

45:24

going to discover the perfect algorithm

45:26

for keeping AI safe instead the solution

45:30

for AI safety is AI policing AI in

45:33

proportion the way we keep cities safe

45:35

is we have police forces police forces

45:37

that scale according to some scaling law

45:40

in proportion to the population of the

45:42

city. So, so we have the good guys and

45:44

the bad guys and the the way we keep the

45:46

bad guys in check is with making sure

45:48

that we have enough good guys to police

45:50

them. Same idea with AI. The way we keep

45:52

AI aligned with humanity, a key way is

45:55

we make sure that we have enough good

45:57

AIs policing any bad AIs in terms of raw

46:01

capabilities that they defensively

46:03

co-scale. So what one of the things I I

46:06

love about this uh aid two story is that

46:10

the outer loop so so the the way this

46:12

recursive self-improvement process

46:14

worked was they had an outer loop and an

46:16

inner loop. The outer loop was tasked

46:18

with the with improving the inner loop.

46:21

The inner loop was tasked with improving

46:23

software development processes in

46:24

general according to some benchmark. The

46:27

outer loop discovered and both both

46:29

powered by the same underlying AIdriven

46:31

exploration process. At least initially

46:34

the outer loop and AI discovered that it

46:37

was able to achieve and this was an

46:39

emergent property better results from

46:41

the inner loop by keeping by preventing

46:44

the inner loop from cheating and reward

46:46

hacking. And so so in some sense the

46:49

outer loop is defensively co-scaling

46:51

with and policing the inner loop all the

46:54

while this is reaching toward greater

46:57

and greater capabilities. And I I think

46:59

this is also parenthetically an example

47:02

of a case you know all of those who

47:04

would say okay like we need to pause AI

47:07

capabilities and throw all of our

47:08

resources to AI alignment until

47:11

something preposterous in my mind like

47:13

2040 like stop all stop the race to

47:15

super intelligence. stop it all. Focus

47:18

on focus the next 14 years on alignment

47:20

research. It's going to backfire because

47:22

every alignment capability, I would

47:24

argue, is actually just cap is is

47:27

capability, new capability in in sort of

47:30

in disguise in a trench coat. Same idea

47:33

here.

47:34

>> We need stronger white hats to police

47:36

the black hats.

47:37

>> Yes. But the the beauty Yes, agree with

47:40

that. And also the beauty is the the

47:43

so-called white hats were emerging

47:45

organically uh on their own just from

47:48

the outer loop policing the inner loop

47:50

towards greater capabilities. That's

47:51

first point. Second point quickly the

47:54

same startup Wo has published a scale of

47:58

recursive self-improvement which is I I

48:00

think something the world has been

48:02

missing. So we have like for autonomous

48:04

cars we have uh the um the society of

48:07

automotive engineers has their like five

48:09

levels of autonomy for autonomous

48:11

vehicles. They've published a scale for

48:13

recursive self-improvement that that

48:14

goes from zero to three. Zero is

48:16

delegation where the AIs are slower than

48:19

human R&D. Level one net positive where

48:22

the AIs beat human a R&D at the same

48:24

cost. Level two they call ignition where

48:27

the improvers are better basically a

48:30

better improver. and level three

48:31

inflection self- acceleration with a

48:33

fixed budget. And the claim here is that

48:36

they're touching just starting to touch

48:38

on ignition. They call it level one

48:40

rather than level two. But the claim

48:41

here is like this is a pre-ignition

48:44

event, which I think is super exciting.

48:45

>> So they they rate themselves as a level

48:47

one here.

48:48

>> Yeah, they rate themselves as level one,

48:50

but reading between the lines, they're

48:51

like this is like sparks of ignition,

48:53

literally and figuratively.

48:56

>> Okay, so maybe I can maybe I can jump in

48:58

and and say a couple words. I'm not as

49:00

excited as Alex is like on the on the

49:02

topic and and I see I see this is an

49:04

impressive engineering kind of work that

49:06

has been done just to tell you a little

49:08

bit about like how the foundation model

49:10

labs are operating all foundation model

49:13

labs since the beginning of let's say

49:15

like four years ago or let's say 5 years

49:17

ago everybody has been thinking about

49:19

recursive self-improvement and for us

49:21

the definition of recursive

49:22

self-improvement is not the engineering

49:25

and prompt engineering of in inner loop

49:27

and outer loop to really get get some

49:30

code patches like changing because that

49:32

gives you the assumption that every

49:34

single AI model that you're using in

49:37

your pipeline is already like uh uh you

49:40

know like it's already defined and it's

49:42

already fixed with a certain type of

49:43

capabilities which is actually the case

49:46

in the whole pipeline that they actually

49:48

like design there's no weight changes in

49:50

the neural networks so that means like

49:52

the AIs that are actually getting used

49:55

right now there's no uh kind of

49:57

improvement of the core competences and

50:00

even behavior of the models they're

50:03

always like in the system prompt of the

50:05

of the models like changes in the system

50:07

problem because I will give you like

50:10

fundamental reasons why this is actually

50:12

limiting because if you just run the

50:14

like how I want to tell you how hard of

50:16

a problem is recursive self-improvement

50:18

for us recursive self-improvement means

50:19

that you have an AI system or an army of

50:22

AI systems that they can also like

50:25

retune themselves they can you know

50:27

adapt very similar to how humans do it.

50:30

You know, if you if you think about it,

50:31

the core competences of these models

50:33

that we have right now, they're they're

50:35

they're fixed weight models and and the

50:36

capabilities are within a certain kind

50:38

of threshold. And the frameworks that

50:40

they actually like designed, it's not um

50:44

it's a very nice early stage of show

50:46

showcasing an engineering pipeline that

50:49

can improve work, which is actually very

50:51

very important and very nice. But I

50:53

wouldn't I wouldn't go so much to say

50:55

like this is like the first breakthrough

50:57

in in in the entire AI industry or

51:00

something like in fact like about three

51:01

years ago we published a paper ourselves

51:03

like we talked we talked about automatic

51:05

design of model architectures you know

51:07

like you know as liquid AI we didn't

51:09

want to put like a bet on a single

51:10

architecture we have basically designed

51:13

self-improve like meta AI systems that

51:16

are actually defining their

51:17

architectures and then going through

51:19

scaling laws for various types of

51:21

architectures and then trying to figure

51:22

it out based on the criteria that you

51:24

define what should be the final model

51:26

and then right now at our company all

51:29

the process of training foundation

51:31

models and really like retuning the

51:33

weights of the system are are getting

51:35

automated. So we are talking about AIS

51:38

or designing AIS. So that's that's what

51:40

I what I would be like calling it like

51:42

the holy grail where you can actually do

51:46

automatic kind of tuning of a model. And

51:48

I'll tell you with the frameworks that

51:50

they kind of uh uh structured, it would

51:52

be extremely exhausted computationally

51:54

intractable to actually performing this

51:56

this job training an AI model training

51:59

like being able to customizing an AI

52:01

model and training an AI model on a

52:04

meaningful number of tokens for

52:06

adaptation or let's say like the core

52:08

competence of the model changing core

52:09

architecture of the model changing core

52:11

algorith learning algorithm itself

52:13

changing all of those matters adds more

52:15

and more complexity on the on the

52:17

situation. I can give you also like one

52:19

numerical kind of example of this.

52:21

There's a scaling laws called chinchilla

52:23

law. You know like chinchilla is like

52:25

the scaling laws of neural networks and

52:27

know like it is unproven like we have

52:28

actually unproven but still like it's it

52:30

gives you a good sense. It says when

52:32

you're training a neural network let's

52:34

say of a given size. If the size of the

52:37

model is two billion parameters, you

52:39

need 20 times of more tokens number of

52:43

tokens to train these models so that you

52:45

have you have compute optimality given a

52:48

compute budget. How many tokens do you

52:50

have to train a model so that you have

52:52

like a general purpose kind of system?

52:54

So that ratio is like 20. And then when

52:56

you actually do the math with the

52:58

frameworks that they have, if they want

53:00

to like let's say you launch this

53:02

framework on retuning an AI model to

53:05

recursively self-improve with this uh

53:08

framework that is getting introduced, it

53:10

takes us 350 years to really uh uh

53:14

fine-tune a two billion parameter model

53:16

with this framework. So there are so so

53:19

so there's there's a lot of there's a

53:22

lot of u computational complexity goes

53:25

into nested learning systems nest metal

53:28

learning systems you know like these are

53:29

the kind of problems that the last four

53:31

years of like at least at my company

53:33

like we have been heavily focused on and

53:35

I know friends at openai and entropic

53:37

has been like focusing on this recursive

53:39

self-improvement and entropic has been

53:41

having a lead on all of these things

53:43

because they thought about this before

53:45

every everybody else that's that's what

53:47

can put out there. Dave,

53:49

>> yeah, brilliantly said. And actually,

53:51

just just so the audience can get the

53:53

analogy there, when a baby is born and

53:56

then learns, you know, that happens over

53:58

about a 20 year time scale and after 20

54:00

years, you've got an adult that's

54:01

capable. Recursive self-improvement is

54:04

like evolution on top of that where

54:06

you're changing the DNA and creating a

54:09

new

54:09

>> You're changing the neuronal structure

54:11

of the brain along the way.

54:12

>> Exactly. So, so that happens over, you

54:14

know, about a 10 millionyear time scale.

54:16

So you go from 10 years to 10 million

54:18

years to go from learning to recursive

54:20

self-improvement or recursive evolution.

54:23

And so the big foundation model labs

54:25

like Ramine said are all doing it. It's

54:27

the most important moment in human

54:29

history. But there's no, you know,

54:31

little guy out there that's going to

54:32

come up and say, "Hey, I've got a

54:33

breakthrough in recursive

54:34

self-improvement. My Mac Mini suddenly

54:36

became conscious and now it's improving

54:38

itself." Just computationally it doesn't

54:40

even come close to fitting. So it's

54:42

happening, but it's happening with big

54:44

compute and big budgets. uh and and you

54:46

know there's a lot of room for

54:47

efficiency improvement a lot of

54:48

breakthroughs will happen but it's not

54:50

going to just pop up on some you know

54:52

>> you know there's a lot of fe there's a

54:53

lot of fear just to call it out that you

54:55

know recursive self-improvement leads to

54:57

AIS that take off a hard you know we've

54:59

discussed the hard takeoff and without

55:01

our understanding of that black box um I

55:05

I guess the two questions need to be

55:07

asked is do is there a concern that

55:10

recursive self-improvement once we hit

55:12

level two level three by that definition

55:15

um runs away in a way that um uh causes

55:20

an uncontrolled uh AI that is misaligned

55:24

with humans. And the second question I

55:26

have is when do you think we'll see

55:28

this? When do you think we'll actually

55:30

see recursive self-improvement hit? Is

55:32

ASI going to be that point uh or is it

55:35

post AGI whatever that means? See, I say

55:38

that for you.

55:40

>> I'll let you answer that exist. I've got

55:42

I've got several comments though but

55:44

Ramine go ahead what do you think is

55:46

happening

55:47

>> look the thing is I can tell you like

55:48

the early evidence of recursive self by

55:50

the way recursive self-improvement is

55:52

not related to one single agent it's a

55:55

social kind of character as well you can

55:57

imagine like you know you have societies

55:59

of agents so this defining kind of

56:01

structure for society of agents itself

56:04

self-improving these are the places

56:06

where actually mythos level kind of

56:07

class of models like I hate this analogy

56:09

but still like let's say mythos level

56:11

kind of class because everybody body

56:12

like heard about mythos and then what I

56:14

would say is that like the cyber

56:15

security kind of uh um um uh threads

56:19

that we are seeing like coming out of

56:21

these type of pipelines of recursive

56:23

self-improvement

56:25

they're real you know like like the

56:27

reason why I'm actually I I've always

56:28

been like you know like pro open source

56:30

and I want to open source technology all

56:32

the time like we are doing it all the

56:33

time like every single release of our

56:35

models is open source our science has

56:37

been always open source I believe

56:38

science has to be open source and I I

56:41

see the value of open source going

56:43

forward. But some of these concerns that

56:45

uh Peter you you brought up, they're

56:47

they're very real, you know, like the

56:49

cyber security kind of aspect of things.

56:51

That's why I feel like like a degree of

56:53

at least uh enterprises themselves

56:56

having some degree of kind of

56:57

self-control like about like how before

57:00

mass release of their uh their models

57:03

there there has to be always a certain

57:06

degree of selfch check and I think

57:07

entropic took it very seriously. The

57:10

reason behind is because they're seeing

57:12

the impact of recursive

57:13

self-improvement. So I know I know this

57:16

for for a fact because I I know what is

57:18

happening like in in seeing it at a

57:20

smaller scale. You know, you can do

57:22

reward hacking, but you can also like,

57:24

you know, like avoid reward reward

57:26

hacking like to to the certain extreme

57:29

and push a model to actually discover

57:31

some stuff that you know like are are

57:33

out of norm, you know, and and we we see

57:35

that on a small models like at a at a

57:37

certain capabilities certain

57:39

capabilities emerging and then I can

57:41

only imagine like what kind of

57:43

capabilities could emerge from let's say

57:45

larger and larger systems thrown more

57:47

and more compute at them. When do you

57:49

when do you think we you know when do we

57:51

have a pod

57:52

>> timelines remain timelines?

57:54

>> Yes. When do you have a pod that said

57:55

yes this is recursive self-improvement

57:58

because while you know while the data

58:00

released by WICO is interesting uh it's

58:02

their own self-reported data. It hasn't

58:04

been confirmed by anybody else yet and

58:06

you know there is a you know debate

58:09

about whether it really is or is not

58:11

real recursive self-improvement. When do

58:13

you think we actually, you know, you

58:16

give the trophy out to somebody? Is it a

58:19

year, 3 years, 5 years?

58:21

>> Yeah. I mean, I I'm telling you that

58:23

that so I I would say like you're going

58:25

to see like unbelievably kind of models

58:27

like probably in the next 2 years or so,

58:28

you know, like models that are like

58:30

going above our our understanding even

58:33

like that that's that's what what I

58:34

would imagine to get. The reason behind

58:36

it is because the time to developing the

58:39

next generation of the models is

58:40

reducing especially if the compute grows

58:42

like at foundation model companies like

58:44

with the rate that we are seeing right

58:45

now and if there is no like let's say

58:48

another chip shortage or memory shortage

58:50

like on compute or anything like around

58:51

the globe and they have access to

58:53

abundant compute we are going to see

58:56

those things like happening faster and

58:57

faster. Now in terms of model

58:59

development there's a concept that we

59:01

have we call it depths of customization.

59:04

So everything at a foundation model lab

59:06

when you're customizing a model when

59:08

you're building something that is like

59:10

better than its previous generation we

59:13

always categorize it with depths of

59:15

customization. The place where recursive

59:17

self-improvement today is really good at

59:20

is prompt engineering changing editing

59:22

code like in engineering kind of tasks

59:25

that you've seen like some elements of

59:26

these things like at a very very

59:28

superficial level let's say make my

59:30

model run fastest like doing kernel

59:32

engineering basically you know make my

59:34

model run faster that's what I call like

59:37

the shallowest level of kind of

59:38

customization where you have Python code

59:40

and then you're kind of adopting that

59:42

Python code to really run or maybe like

59:44

even lower level programs that you have

59:46

like on a kernel level to optimize like

59:48

let's say inference speed you know

59:50

that's something that I think with when

59:52

when they released Fable 5 they they

59:55

shared like and tropic actually shared

59:56

that this was one of the tests that they

59:58

have been performing you know but they

1:00:00

they don't share like the next level

1:00:02

depths of customization the next level

1:00:04

depths of customization is that can a

1:00:06

model fine-tune a small language model

1:00:09

to a production grade capability or a

1:00:12

smaller version of itself to a certain

1:00:14

capability

1:00:15

today like fav 5 can actually you can

1:00:18

push it to actually get to some degree

1:00:21

of kind of customization with some

1:00:23

>> performance optim performance

1:00:24

optimization

1:00:24

>> performance optimization of the model

1:00:26

but by fine-tuning then the latest holy

1:00:28

grail which is like the craziest one

1:00:30

which would be pre-training right can a

1:00:32

language model pre-train the next

1:00:34

generation of their own that's why they

1:00:35

hired karpathy because Andre was talking

1:00:38

about like nano GPT style kind of uh

1:00:41

fine-tuning you know andre like joined

1:00:43

entropic and now he's working on

1:00:45

pre-training automation like basically

1:00:47

automation of automation. So which is

1:00:49

which is a very very important kind of

1:00:51

element that we don't have yet because

1:00:53

the scale of these problems goes beyond

1:00:56

human imagination in terms of the scale

1:00:58

of compute that

1:01:00

>> you're jumping

1:01:01

>> I've got I've got for me this is by far

1:01:03

the most important uh story or slide

1:01:06

we're going to cover today. Um I'm

1:01:08

beyond excited for a couple of reasons.

1:01:11

uh the you know I I'm not really focused

1:01:14

on the self-awareness or the loop that

1:01:16

will go there but this is self

1:01:18

accelerating it's accelerating

1:01:19

experimentation right because the system

1:01:21

doesn't need it's it's improving the

1:01:24

process by which it searches and

1:01:25

evaluates and selects improvements and

1:01:27

the innovation loop begins to compound

1:01:30

that for me is the key why because this

1:01:33

this whole thing we've been doing called

1:01:35

the organizational singularity relies on

1:01:37

one thing which is can you get to

1:01:40

recursive self-improvement at the

1:01:41

workflow level. Here we're talking about

1:01:43

the model and we're talking about like

1:01:45

can you so but you don't need that

1:01:47

level. The bar can be much much lower to

1:01:49

improve invoice uh uh approval at a

1:01:52

company right that's a very low bar to

1:01:54

improve that process. So this is the

1:01:56

first glimpse of the organizational

1:01:58

singularity. It's happening at the

1:02:00

research level, but the because AI is

1:02:02

not just doing tasks in a in a workflow.

1:02:04

It's redesigning the workflow uh that

1:02:06

makes it better for doing future tasks,

1:02:08

right? And so this is proof now for the

1:02:11

whole thesis we've had. Um we predicted

1:02:14

this, but it's great to see it actually

1:02:17

happen because now I can kind of tick

1:02:19

that box off and go this is there cuz

1:02:21

now you have meta improvement. And I

1:02:23

think Dave's analogy of the baby

1:02:25

changing the DNA is fantastic. That's

1:02:27

such a great visual around this. What

1:02:29

the hell does it become over time? Um,

1:02:33

really really I'm beyond excited about

1:02:35

this.

1:02:35

>> I've got to move us along. There's a lot

1:02:36

that happened this week. Our next story

1:02:38

here is the Malaysian prime minister,

1:02:40

uh, Anoir Ibrahim has is preparing to

1:02:43

debut an AI generated digital double of

1:02:46

himself trained to sound like him for

1:02:48

public communications and outreach. So,

1:02:51

uh, this is one of the most prominent

1:02:53

cases yet of a sitting head of

1:02:54

government officially adopting an AI

1:02:56

likeness as a communications tool. Uh,

1:02:59

not a deep fake Biden adversary, but a

1:03:02

sanctioned official AI clone of a

1:03:04

national leader. Uh, we've seen this

1:03:06

before, Selene. we've talked about in

1:03:07

the past where Albania in 2025 uh

1:03:10

announced uh Dileia uh an AI avatar that

1:03:14

was formally appointed the minister of

1:03:16

state for artificial intelligence and

1:03:18

following a presidential decree became

1:03:20

the first AI system in the world named

1:03:23

at a cabinet level role. Uh so one

1:03:27

leader uh in this case prime minister of

1:03:29

Malaysia can personally address millions

1:03:31

in their own languages. It's worth

1:03:32

noting that Malaysia has 135 spoken

1:03:36

languages. So, um it's a big deal,

1:03:39

especially in in a nation like that.

1:03:41

Sim, I'm going to go to you first on

1:03:43

this one. Um we've been talking about

1:03:44

this for a while.

1:03:46

>> Yeah, I I met the um the former prime

1:03:49

minister when I was there helping them

1:03:51

open a university. Uh and Anoir Ibrahim

1:03:54

is a really really good guy uh to as a

1:03:56

follow on. Um the there's a risk here.

1:04:00

the risk is that the authenticity kind

1:04:02

of collapses because people need uh you

1:04:06

know you could you could launch a bunch

1:04:07

of deep fakes with this and have a huge

1:04:09

issue. Is this the actual leader? That

1:04:11

kind of question can come up. But I love

1:04:13

the general approach because if you can

1:04:16

do it from a with a watermarking or

1:04:18

something and say this is the actual

1:04:20

avatar, uh then it gives every citizen a

1:04:24

voice to um um plug into and gives huge

1:04:28

props to the civics of all of this

1:04:31

because now you're scaling civic

1:04:32

engagement and I think that's a very

1:04:34

powerful thing to do. It's one of the

1:04:36

biggest challenges we have with

1:04:37

democracies all over the world is civic

1:04:40

engagement and this allows you to scale

1:04:41

that. So I'm very excited.

1:04:43

>> Do you remember the reason why Albania

1:04:44

put this their AI cabinet minister in

1:04:46

place?

1:04:48

>> Yeah. Corruption.

1:04:48

>> Corruption. Exactly. It was to fight

1:04:50

corruption.

1:04:51

>> Yeah.

1:04:51

>> Yeah. Now, Malaysia is pretty decent as

1:04:54

a pretty decent place, but definitely

1:04:55

you you have that issue. But I think the

1:04:57

this is more of a PR thing and more him

1:05:00

trying to figure out ways of connecting

1:05:01

with the ordinary citizenry, which is

1:05:03

all great. I I love the fact that we you

1:05:05

know we had this conversation with the

1:05:07

uh president of Argentina uh you know

1:05:10

going full out here and it's interesting

1:05:12

to see which countries are sort of

1:05:14

experimenting on the edge. Um Alex, do

1:05:17

you want to weigh in?

1:05:18

>> Yeah. So many thoughts here. First I

1:05:20

think we're going to see more of this in

1:05:22

the west as well especially with like

1:05:25

extra high alpha personality leaders

1:05:28

that want to amplify themselves and

1:05:30

touch the the citizenry. AI Trump is

1:05:32

coming is how you're saying

1:05:35

>> high personality leaders that that want

1:05:37

to touch the citiz citizenry and in some

1:05:39

sense I I think it's a generalization of

1:05:41

social media. So social media enables

1:05:44

direct outreach from the leader or the

1:05:47

influencers to everyone but it's sort of

1:05:49

broadcast one to many. It's not

1:05:51

interactive. This generalizes in some

1:05:53

sense social media to make it a lot more

1:05:55

birectional since if you're touching a

1:05:58

million or 100 million or a billion

1:06:00

people it's very difficult to interact

1:06:02

birectionally with everyone all at once.

1:06:04

Now if you create a digital twin of the

1:06:06

leader or the influencer or the

1:06:08

organization now it can be birectional.

1:06:10

So I I also don't think it's just going

1:06:12

to be governments or government leaders

1:06:14

that adopt this. I I think it's likely

1:06:16

that corporations, corporate CEOs will

1:06:18

do this. We already see Zuck and others

1:06:21

creating digital twins of

1:06:22

>> themselves. We had DAR on the Abundance

1:06:24

stage last year. We're discussing this

1:06:26

that uh the employees made a DAR clone

1:06:29

that they could go and practice their

1:06:30

pitches on and get feedback before they

1:06:32

pitch to him.

1:06:34

>> Yes. And it won't just be I think

1:06:35

corporations, religious leaders and

1:06:37

religious institutions. uh if you're

1:06:39

Catholic, imagine having like a digital

1:06:41

twin of the pope and you you see like

1:06:43

lots of religious institutions,

1:06:45

organizations already creating basically

1:06:47

living versions of of their founding

1:06:50

documents and making those interactive.

1:06:52

But I think the biggest twist and we

1:06:54

we've seen variants of this movie before

1:06:56

are going to be in cases where what

1:06:59

start as digital twins of the leads or

1:07:01

the avatars uh of an organization uh or

1:07:04

an uh some sort of like organized

1:07:06

religion actually themselves become the

1:07:09

leader. that that's at at some point the

1:07:12

the digital twin uh it to the extent

1:07:14

it's interfacing much more with the the

1:07:17

the populace uh the the proletariat as

1:07:20

it were of an organization at some point

1:07:22

it's actually the digital twin of the

1:07:23

leader running the company and not the

1:07:26

actual behavioral origin that uh that's

1:07:29

running the company and I think that's

1:07:31

that's one way in which sem to your to

1:07:33

your exo point this is I I think a

1:07:36

potentially a pathway towards not just

1:07:39

uploading individuals like natural

1:07:41

persons or non-human animals but

1:07:43

uploading entire organizations into into

1:07:46

cyerspace into the cloud if we created

1:07:48

digital twins are the leaders and those

1:07:50

are the ones actually running the

1:07:51

organization

1:07:51

>> it could lead to a true democracy Dave

1:07:53

where do you come out on this I mean we

1:07:54

saw just one quick point we saw Sam

1:07:56

Alman talk about in the future if I

1:07:58

believe enough in what we're building

1:08:00

with with chat GPT it should be the CEO

1:08:03

of open AI eventually

1:08:06

Dave are you going to create an AI Dave

1:08:09

Blondon that's going to run Link Studios

1:08:11

and and Link Link Ventures.

1:08:14

>> Absolutely. Going to create an AI Dave

1:08:16

Blondon. And I'm shocked that there

1:08:18

isn't already a Peter Diamandis.

1:08:20

>> Well, there is there is one. It's just

1:08:21

inside the Abundance ecosystem. I mean,

1:08:23

anybody It was funny. I went to uh went

1:08:25

up to Calgary and met with one of my uh

1:08:28

dear friends and abundance member and on

1:08:30

his wall, I kid you not, he had a giant

1:08:32

screen of my AI avatar that he has all

1:08:36

of his tech employees talk to uh to sort

1:08:40

of get their moonshots and it was it

1:08:42

blew my mind.

1:08:43

>> You've got your own big brother, Peter.

1:08:45

>> It was like he goes, I want to introduce

1:08:46

you to someone, Peter. And he spins them

1:08:48

up and I you know, it's interesting to

1:08:50

have a conversation with your AI self.

1:08:52

Um, it is very compelling. I mean, I

1:08:55

have enough books and tweets and uh and

1:08:58

and Substack posts out there that it

1:09:00

does a damn good job. Uh, we should

1:09:02

effectively, you know, moonshots.com is

1:09:05

our our platform we're building out. I

1:09:07

think we should have AI avatars of all

1:09:09

of us there where people can do AMAs.

1:09:13

>> In some in some cases, Peter, I think

1:09:14

that might be redundant.

1:09:16

>> Ah, well, hey, in other words, you're

1:09:19

already an AI, but we can have an AI of

1:09:21

the Alex AI. Sure.

1:09:22

>> It would be so much better than the real

1:09:24

person because we'll have access to

1:09:25

everything we've ever said, all our

1:09:27

memories, all our thinking. The context

1:09:28

will be much broader. Go for it.

1:09:31

>> This whole area

1:09:32

>> Yeah.

1:09:33

>> This whole area is about a year behind

1:09:34

where it should be largely because, you

1:09:36

know, Noam Shazir was doing character AI

1:09:38

and and we had Steve Brown Peter that

1:09:41

was uh two years ago now. We had Steve

1:09:42

Brown make uh the debate between AI

1:09:45

Peter and Sak Aristotle.

1:09:48

>> Yeah.

1:09:49

>> Yeah. And and so it's been a it's been

1:09:50

possible for a while now, but all the

1:09:52

key talent working on it got sucked back

1:09:54

into the big foundation labs. And you

1:09:56

know, there's so many big big big uh you

1:09:58

know core technological breakthroughs

1:10:00

going on that the people that were

1:10:03

working on this just got absorbed back

1:10:04

into those things and not into the the

1:10:06

avatar. But my my mom would always tell

1:10:08

me when I was a kid that John F. Kennedy

1:10:11

beat Richard Nixon in the election

1:10:13

because uh he looked good on TV and TV

1:10:16

was the new medium and the prior medium

1:10:18

was radio and Nixon was still using

1:10:20

radio voice when TV had taken over. So

1:10:23

then, you know, elections go by and

1:10:25

suddenly it's the internet, it's it's

1:10:26

social media, now it's YouTube. But this

1:10:29

is another step function change in the

1:10:31

way that you reach out

1:10:32

>> to people and it's underutilized, but

1:10:35

it's it should be easily dominant two

1:10:37

years from now in the next election. And

1:10:39

so I'd be shocked if because the

1:10:41

technology is already there and people

1:10:44

are visualizing the medium right now as,

1:10:46

oh, let me make an AI version of myself.

1:10:47

I'm Alex Wisner Gross. Here's my AI

1:10:50

version. It's just like the real thing.

1:10:52

That completely misses the point. The

1:10:54

the AI version of it can in real time

1:10:56

access any information and make it

1:11:00

visual, graphs, charts, you know, it can

1:11:01

morph its face. It can it can teleport

1:11:04

through space to make a point and point

1:11:05

to atoms. It can shrink and expand. It

1:11:08

has all these capabilities that the real

1:11:10

human version doesn't have. And that's

1:11:13

why it's going to be so compelling. It's

1:11:14

the differences that make this new

1:11:16

medium so exciting, not the not the

1:11:18

exact clone. And so once people realize

1:11:21

that there's no going back. It's going

1:11:22

to be huge.

1:11:23

>> I think Dave, that's such a great point

1:11:25

that you make, it's the complimentarity

1:11:27

that is very powerful.

1:11:28

>> Let me let me close out on one thing

1:11:30

here. If if uh to our audience here, if

1:11:33

you've not sat down, if if you're lucky

1:11:35

enough to have your mom and dad still

1:11:37

alive or your grandparents still alive

1:11:39

and you haven't sat down and interviewed

1:11:42

them in video uh for hours at a time,

1:11:46

please do that. Right? you're gonna

1:11:48

you're gonna wish you had. So, I've done

1:11:50

that with my mom. I miss doing that with

1:11:52

my dad. And it's the ability for your

1:11:55

kids and your grandkids and your

1:11:56

great-grandkids to really have a great

1:11:58

AI representation of your of your

1:12:00

parentage and your your lineage. I think

1:12:02

that's going to be super important.

1:12:03

Reine, I want to I want to pivot to a

1:12:06

discussion of liquid AI uh and uh uh the

1:12:10

the small language models, what they

1:12:12

are, what they mean. uh super excited

1:12:15

you know uh just for full disclosure uh

1:12:19

you know liquid AI is a company in which

1:12:23

uh Dave you played a important pivotal

1:12:25

role as an early investor Dave you want

1:12:27

to give that backstory here a little bit

1:12:30

>> uh actually I got a call from Daniela

1:12:31

Roose over at CEL saying the best

1:12:33

student I've ever had Daniela Daniela is

1:12:36

you know one of the three I guess big

1:12:38

shot women in AI she runs CEL at MIT AI

1:12:42

lab in the world computer science AI lab

1:12:44

you know I don't know if you remember

1:12:46

back in the day there was the AI lab and

1:12:48

then LCS lab for computer science were

1:12:50

the two biggest

1:12:51

>> you know compsai labs at MIT they merged

1:12:53

them together and made one mega lab put

1:12:56

it in the new STA building which is that

1:12:57

crumpled look looking beautiful

1:13:00

structure uh you know right on the edge

1:13:01

of MIT's campus and then Daniela is

1:13:04

running that entire thing so I think

1:13:05

it's like 1500 researchers in the

1:13:07

building biggest AI lab in the world and

1:13:10

and so she has access to incredible

1:13:12

talent but she called and said, "Hey,

1:13:14

best students I've ever had have this

1:13:16

incredible breakthrough." And then she

1:13:18

completely lost me. She said, "It's

1:13:19

based on the nervous system of the worm,

1:13:21

the C elegance 300 neuron worm." Like,

1:13:25

what are you talking about? But it turns

1:13:27

out that if you, you know, I actually

1:13:29

don't know of any um successful

1:13:31

foundation lab uh that has really

1:13:35

rethought from the ground up the

1:13:36

transformer and thrown it out basically

1:13:38

and started over which which you know

1:13:41

humanity desperately needs because that

1:13:43

the everybody knows the transformer

1:13:44

architecture and the whole attention

1:13:46

mechanism is bloated. And if you really

1:13:49

go back to founding principles and think

1:13:51

again, you might be able to build

1:13:52

something dramatically like massively

1:13:55

better. And so the team went from idea

1:13:58

in a lab to billion dollar valuation in

1:14:01

faster than any company out of MIT in

1:14:03

history.

1:14:04

>> And luckily we were an investor in that

1:14:06

company.

1:14:06

>> Luckily we were. Yeah. And very very

1:14:08

thankful actually. It was very

1:14:09

competitive getting any money in at all.

1:14:11

So Reine uh we owe you a huge debt of

1:14:13

gratitude for for being invited to the

1:14:15

to the party. Um but uh yeah it's it's

1:14:19

uh one of about 200 unicorns out of MIT

1:14:21

all time but the only foundation model

1:14:23

company that I know of that reached

1:14:25

unicorn status coming out of MIT. So

1:14:27

it's a really unique uh and incredible

1:14:29

achievement and in record time too.

1:14:31

>> So remain take it take us from there.

1:14:32

You're you're doing your PhD under

1:14:35

Danielle Larus at the computer science

1:14:36

AI lab CEL and you're studying a 302

1:14:40

neuron uh worm uh C elegance and so take

1:14:45

us from there forward to what's uh what

1:14:47

you're doing now what is liquid AI

1:14:50

>> absolutely absolutely like before I

1:14:52

start like I want to thank you guys like

1:14:54

for for the support throughout like this

1:14:56

three and a half years years of liquidi

1:14:58

you have been like great support giving

1:15:00

us like the the the kind of distrib

1:15:02

contribution that uh a company needs,

1:15:05

you know, like and and at at our scale

1:15:06

like starting off of the east coast.

1:15:08

Thank you so much for doing that both of

1:15:10

you. Um and um and um yeah, so so 2015 I

1:15:16

was in Vienna. I started my PhD with

1:15:18

professor in Vienna, Professor Rad

1:15:20

Grusu. There he had the idea of like we

1:15:23

don't understand a lot about human

1:15:24

intelligence. Let's start on a smaller

1:15:26

animal and then from first principles

1:15:28

like if you understand how the neurons

1:15:30

exchange information in the brain of the

1:15:31

worm. The worm has 302 uh neurons in its

1:15:34

nervous system. It is uh its body is

1:15:37

transparent so you can actually see the

1:15:38

body actually lighting up like so it is

1:15:40

a one of the best model organisms in the

1:15:43

world. It won so far like four Nobel

1:15:46

prizes for humanity like you know

1:15:47

because it has 78% similarity genome

1:15:50

similarity to uh to human genome you

1:15:53

know. And the way nervous systems

1:15:55

compute in the brain of a little worm

1:15:57

which is 2 mm is um basically analog

1:16:01

very similar to how artificial neural

1:16:04

networks are actually computing. They

1:16:05

are also like analog switches like they

1:16:07

have like graded potential. They're not

1:16:09

spiking. So in biological neural

1:16:11

networks usually in the brains you see

1:16:13

neurons a spike and when you have a

1:16:15

spike that's there's an analog to

1:16:17

digital kind of uh transfer of uh uh

1:16:20

things are happening and that's a

1:16:21

natural development of nervous systems

1:16:24

for uh in in the human beings and and

1:16:26

bigger animals for propagation for

1:16:28

efficient propagation of information. In

1:16:30

the brain of the worm neurons behave

1:16:32

very similar to how artificial neural

1:16:33

networks react but then the the

1:16:35

mechanisms are very interesting. So we

1:16:38

wanted to add more complexity into the

1:16:40

neuro like every individual single

1:16:42

blocks of nervous systems and see can we

1:16:45

pack more information into inside the

1:16:48

smaller kind of units of compute you

1:16:50

know and that's what we have done so

1:16:52

Danielle Arus two years into basically

1:16:54

discovery of these things that I was

1:16:55

doing with my co-founder Matias Lechner

1:16:58

Matias was a master student in Vienna

1:17:00

Vienna University of Technology and I

1:17:02

was a PhD student and then when Daniela

1:17:04

heard from Radu that uh you know like

1:17:07

this project is going on. Danila was

1:17:08

like, "Oh my god, this is crazy. We

1:17:10

should apply this in autonomy in

1:17:11

robotics and all the sort of things

1:17:13

because you're showing like uh a handful

1:17:15

of neurons can drive and control

1:17:17

autonomous systems, you know, and can we

1:17:19

scale this to vehicles? Can we scale it

1:17:21

to drones to to jets to like like

1:17:24

predictive kind of places?" So Daniela

1:17:27

came in and said, "Would you guys

1:17:28

consider coming to MIT?" And we we went

1:17:30

there since 2017 in the middle of my

1:17:32

PhD. I actually joined CELL there. We uh

1:17:36

we continued working on the uh on this

1:17:38

technology which was you know like from

1:17:40

a base is a completely different things

1:17:42

a neuroscience inspired the math behind

1:17:45

like every single neuron in a liquid

1:17:47

neural networks that became kind of my

1:17:49

PhD thesis is very different than how

1:17:51

attention works you know these are based

1:17:53

on recurrent neural networks these are b

1:17:56

based on continuous time processes you

1:17:58

know like more and more kind of nature

1:18:01

inspired computation went into the

1:18:02

design of uh uh found design of kind of

1:18:06

AI systems and then we applied these

1:18:09

liquid neural networks as a completely

1:18:11

new base because uh we applied them to

1:18:14

real world scenarios like robotics

1:18:16

because you can pack a lot more

1:18:18

information into smaller kind of

1:18:19

processors in the real world in the

1:18:21

physical world you don't have the luxury

1:18:23

of having abundant compute let's say a

1:18:25

robot doesn't have it doesn't have like

1:18:27

a lot of GPUs or parallel data centers

1:18:29

like attached to it a robot has a CPU

1:18:32

and a small like let's say GPU and let's

1:18:35

say an NPU a custom ASIC. So you can

1:18:38

actually take this type of uh you know

1:18:40

intelligence that we design that deliver

1:18:43

basically intelligence at the level of

1:18:45

like models that are 10 to a thousand

1:18:46

times larger than themselves. You can

1:18:49

bring those things like directly running

1:18:50

on CPUs, GPUs and NPUs outside of data

1:18:53

centers. So we thought that okay this

1:18:55

format is is going to open up an

1:18:58

opportunity for us to bring in like

1:18:59

alternative architecture if we scale

1:19:01

this technology to let's say into into

1:19:03

the regime of foundation models which is

1:19:06

kind of large language models and SLMs

1:19:08

uh as a whole like human understandable

1:19:10

like making this liquid neural networks

1:19:12

or architectures that we have uh also

1:19:15

scalable like the transformer

1:19:16

architecture and uh we built like a

1:19:19

foundation model lab around the idea uh

1:19:22

in 2020 2023

1:19:25

beginning of 2023 I think at the very

1:19:27

beginning when we started there was no

1:19:29

foundation model lab apart from deep

1:19:31

mind and and and open AAI basically like

1:19:33

when we started and this notion of

1:19:35

foundation model labs didn't exist and

1:19:37

everybody was betting on top of uh uh

1:19:40

you know transformer architecture and we

1:19:43

came in and we said okay so why don't we

1:19:45

explore this space of alternative

1:19:47

architectures starting from the priors

1:19:50

that we have from nature and then take

1:19:52

take a different approach build a meta

1:19:54

AI system again uh basically an

1:19:57

automated AI system that allows us an AI

1:19:59

that designs AI that explores the

1:20:02

computational graphs of intelligence

1:20:04

beyond transformer and then figure out

1:20:06

what should be that architectural design

1:20:09

that brings the same level of

1:20:11

intelligence than a frontier model into

1:20:13

let's say on on a CPU that we can run

1:20:15

let's say a physical system

1:20:17

>> take a second and and walk us through so

1:20:19

these are small language models can you

1:20:21

define an SLM M and how it varies from

1:20:24

an LLM.

1:20:26

>> Definitely. So when you start uh

1:20:28

developing kind of foundation models,

1:20:30

you start you you run something called

1:20:32

scaling laws. You know like a scaling

1:20:34

laws is like basically starting with a

1:20:35

smaller models and with these smaller

1:20:38

models you train them on a certain

1:20:39

number of token budget given amount of

1:20:41

compute. You train these models to see

1:20:44

how well they perform. Then you start

1:20:46

systematically making the models larger

1:20:48

and larger. So that and and we have seen

1:20:51

scaling laws shows that the larger you

1:20:53

make the models the more token budgets

1:20:54

you spend the more intelligence of a

1:20:56

system you can get and this has been

1:20:59

like giving rise to large language

1:21:01

models along the way of scaling there

1:21:03

are instant instantiation of the models

1:21:06

which are smaller you know like on the

1:21:08

scaling laws but we have been doing as a

1:21:11

lab our mission has always been building

1:21:13

efficient general purpose AI at every

1:21:15

scale so we started as a foundation

1:21:17

model lab to really run the scaling laws

1:21:20

on on efficiency front you know and

1:21:21

efficiency was a first class citizen for

1:21:24

us you know like thinking about

1:21:25

computational graphs of intelligence

1:21:27

smaller models are models that are you

1:21:30

know like along the line of like a

1:21:32

scaling they can solve um let's say they

1:21:35

don't have like the general capability

1:21:36

to the level of the largest kind of

1:21:38

language models but they can be

1:21:40

specialized to solve dedicated problems

1:21:43

they are general purpose small language

1:21:45

models are general purpose in the sense

1:21:47

that they understand language They can

1:21:49

see and they can hear in a multimodal

1:21:51

kind of format but they don't it doesn't

1:21:54

mean that they can solve let's say a

1:21:56

homework in physics and at the same time

1:21:58

they can solve an enterprise problem you

1:22:00

usually specialize smaller language

1:22:02

models

1:22:03

>> and what does small mean what does small

1:22:04

mean in this case

1:22:06

>> small means like basic I mean now they

1:22:08

come like now small would be like

1:22:09

anything below 100 billion parameters

1:22:11

you know like that's kind of the regime

1:22:13

that I would count I mean midsize like

1:22:15

basically is is around that that size

1:22:18

but I would consider like anything below

1:22:20

100 billion parameter is something that

1:22:22

is not small and mediumsiz kind of

1:22:24

models you know there's no there's no

1:22:26

clear threshold of like let's say what

1:22:28

is the number of parameters but for us

1:22:30

like the notion of ondevice AI is is

1:22:33

extremely important here to distinguish

1:22:35

within this range of parameters ondevice

1:22:38

AI is like models that you can actually

1:22:41

deploy them uh on the on an actual kind

1:22:43

of device physical device this could be

1:22:45

a

1:22:46

>> let's make this concrete cuz you've got

1:22:48

a significant deal with Mercedes.

1:22:50

>> Yes.

1:22:50

>> Um and can you speak to that and let's

1:22:52

talk about you know these these SLMs in

1:22:56

terms of uh onrem uh basically they're

1:22:59

they're and energy efficient uh you know

1:23:02

fast offline. Let's let's dive into that

1:23:05

give people sort of a real understanding

1:23:07

here.

1:23:08

>> Absolutely. So as I mentioned you can

1:23:11

specialize these foundation models. We

1:23:13

work with a lot of enterprises that are

1:23:15

building devices themselves. Like

1:23:17

automotive is a device is a is a is a is

1:23:19

an environment where you have a lot of

1:23:21

chips in there and now in a car you

1:23:24

don't have that much that much compute.

1:23:26

So there's like one chip that is

1:23:27

available for infotainment and incar

1:23:29

intelligence you know that chip is very

1:23:31

very small. The Qualcomm chip or let's

1:23:33

say Samsung chip like depending on like

1:23:35

what company is providing the chip like

1:23:37

that chip is like very very small. We

1:23:39

are talking about 2 GB to 8 GB of RAM,

1:23:42

you know, like not more than that. So

1:23:44

the model has to be very small and at

1:23:46

the same time being able to perform

1:23:48

because we want to bring this and enable

1:23:50

a private space inside the car that

1:23:53

powers the intelligence of the car in

1:23:55

the car. Car is a safety critical

1:23:57

environment. You don't want your car to

1:23:59

be driven by an AI model that is sitting

1:24:00

in the cloud. Why? Because connectivity

1:24:02

is not uh always available, right? then

1:24:06

uh it is it is private because it's one

1:24:08

of those spaces that people spend a lot

1:24:09

of time in and you don't want those

1:24:11

conversations to be like recorded. So we

1:24:13

brought the intelligence like um

1:24:16

basically we brought u uh one of our

1:24:19

multimodal foundation models that is

1:24:21

only uh less than one gigabyte of in

1:24:24

size

1:24:24

>> and it can go inside the car's chip like

1:24:27

very very tiny chip. The chip could be

1:24:30

as cheap as $60, you know, like that's

1:24:32

what I'm saying. Like we're bringing

1:24:33

that level of intelligence into that

1:24:35

that voice and it is going to power kind

1:24:38

of the multimodal intelligence

1:24:39

experience inside the car. We do that

1:24:42

with all car manufacturers. We announced

1:24:43

the Mercedes partnership as a first uh f

1:24:46

first kind of uh point of entry because

1:24:49

automotive is like it's very sensitive

1:24:51

kind of uh topic and and they're they're

1:24:53

pretty slow. One of the things that

1:24:55

Mercedes dispense actually enjoyed from

1:24:56

this process was the speed of operations

1:24:59

that we had for enterprises you know

1:25:00

like when we are bringing this type of

1:25:02

technology inhouse this has been like

1:25:04

one of those uh cornerstones of landing

1:25:06

the deals you know because we want to

1:25:08

work we are an enterprise company we're

1:25:09

a B2B company we are bringing our full

1:25:12

power to really like deploy the

1:25:13

solutions and really have platforms that

1:25:16

allows people to fine-tune like their

1:25:18

small models and fine-tuning small

1:25:20

models is not that expensive. It's

1:25:22

something that is extremely tangible. So

1:25:24

they we fine-tune kind of the small

1:25:26

models for the the applications inside

1:25:29

the car. We also have data flywheel kind

1:25:31

of systems that allows the system always

1:25:34

stay adaptable. Imagine some of the some

1:25:36

of the problems in enterprise AI has

1:25:38

always been let's download a GLM 2 5.2

1:25:41

like you know and and let's say an open

1:25:43

source model and put that in production

1:25:45

and then so what happens after you put

1:25:47

the system in production? What happens

1:25:49

like when there's a drift from the use

1:25:51

cases that is hitting this model inside

1:25:54

let's say a car and in the physical

1:25:55

world it becomes even more challenging

1:25:58

because when you deploy an intelligence

1:25:59

that is completely kind of disconnected

1:26:02

from the cloud how do you want to like

1:26:05

maintain updates of the system because

1:26:07

we have always thought about like

1:26:09

intelligence in the format of liquid you

1:26:11

know like intelligence has to always

1:26:13

stay adaptable and um and that that's

1:26:15

that's kind of a portion that we're also

1:26:17

pushing on to really be able to collect

1:26:20

the data and personalize models to the

1:26:23

experience of every single user. With

1:26:25

Mercedes, we're rolling this out first

1:26:27

in North America uh as as soon as

1:26:30

basically this year. All the

1:26:31

Mercedes-Benz North America cars like

1:26:33

from 2022 on they're going to get an

1:26:35

update overtheair update because the

1:26:37

size of the update is 600 megabyte. So

1:26:40

that's that's like a that's like a

1:26:42

overlay of like it doesn't consume that

1:26:44

much internet to really update your

1:26:45

software and that allows us to also

1:26:47

further customization. Imagine if every

1:26:49

update that you want to perform on the

1:26:51

system is in the order of 20 megabytes

1:26:54

because we are doing like some sort of

1:26:55

lore adapters and let's say all sort of

1:26:57

adapters that we can actually bring in

1:26:58

inside the car. You would be able to

1:27:00

have like a recursively kind of

1:27:02

improving the experience of the user as

1:27:05

well. So that's kind of let's take it

1:27:08

make it more concrete for me. So what am

1:27:10

I going to be how am I using this model

1:27:11

in my Mercedes next year? So right now

1:27:14

my experience is using Grock in my

1:27:16

Tesla, right? And it's over the air. If

1:27:18

I don't have connectivity, I don't have

1:27:20

Grock. Uh but you know what kind of what

1:27:23

kind of queries what kind of

1:27:24

capabilities does this all of a sudden

1:27:26

enable in a Mercedes?

1:27:28

>> It has access it it's it's sitting below

1:27:31

the the the operating system. So that

1:27:33

means like it is basically it is like

1:27:36

basically have access to all the

1:27:38

functions inside the car you know so

1:27:40

there are 700 functions inside the car

1:27:42

700 to like I don't know 1,200 depending

1:27:45

on what what you count as a function you

1:27:47

can you can talk to your car you can

1:27:49

control like all the panels of your car

1:27:51

you can ask for let's say manuals of the

1:27:53

car you know like when when you're like

1:27:55

get let's say stuck somewhere you know

1:27:56

like something pops up you know like you

1:27:58

would be able to talk to the car there

1:28:00

are memory features that we are adding

1:28:01

to the car like You basically can have

1:28:04

conversations with that with that

1:28:05

system. Once the like one of the

1:28:08

beauties of this system is that like it

1:28:09

has full access to the to all the

1:28:11

functionalities of the car plus all the

1:28:13

apps because there are like function

1:28:15

calls. They're one function calls away,

1:28:17

you know. So if you want to control any

1:28:19

other thing from this from this

1:28:21

intelligence unit inside the car, you

1:28:22

would be controlling everything all the

1:28:24

ecosystem that is sitting on top of the

1:28:27

uh um sitting on top of the operating

1:28:29

system of the car.

1:28:32

So basically I mean if I get you right

1:28:34

there the advantage of the SLMs are

1:28:37

first of all you know the size of the

1:28:39

model I I assume energy consumption

1:28:41

they're efficient um and they can run on

1:28:45

on prem uh do I mean how do you avoid or

1:28:49

reduce sort of overgeneralization of

1:28:51

these models compared to LLMs?

1:28:54

>> What do you mean overgeneralization? In

1:28:55

other words, uh are the do you have

1:28:58

enough capabilities internal to them so

1:29:00

that they are uh actually able to

1:29:02

accurately answer the questions you're

1:29:04

asking?

1:29:05

>> Great question. So if you have like you

1:29:07

know I I told you about the framework of

1:29:09

foundation model development which is

1:29:10

depths of customization.

1:29:12

>> We try to actually stay adaptable and

1:29:15

have access to the tools across these

1:29:17

customization stacks. Sometimes prompt

1:29:19

engineering is enough. Sometimes you got

1:29:21

to fine-tune the model. Sometimes you

1:29:22

have to do go and pre-train a model

1:29:24

again you know for the core capabilities

1:29:26

or a specialization of intelligence. Now

1:29:29

we make systems that are you know our

1:29:31

platforms are getting into the place

1:29:32

where they're automatically identifying

1:29:35

what depths of customization is needed

1:29:37

for a certain solution and the platform

1:29:39

basically like it's it's one of the

1:29:40

products of the company that we sell to

1:29:42

enterprises to allow them to fine-tune

1:29:45

kind of models like I I don't want to

1:29:47

call it fine tune customize a model at a

1:29:49

level that is needed for that uh uh for

1:29:52

that system to actually operate right so

1:29:54

for Mercedes-Benz we have a let's say

1:29:57

like the framework that we have at at

1:29:59

in-house. We call it model plus X, you

1:30:02

know, model plus a platform that allows

1:30:04

you to perform customization. It's not

1:30:07

just the models that we're selling to

1:30:09

enterprises, the static weights of a

1:30:10

model. We sell them something that they

1:30:12

can actually like retune and fine-tune

1:30:14

the system. Detecting how how much uh

1:30:18

generality like the base models have,

1:30:20

it's something that you know like

1:30:21

libraries of liquid models are coming

1:30:23

out for many different applications. We

1:30:24

have models that we're working with for

1:30:27

example in silicon medicine like you

1:30:28

know Alex

1:30:29

>> I introduced you Alex

1:30:30

>> that you introduced us Peter like I

1:30:33

remember and um and through that kind of

1:30:35

interaction like it is getting big you

1:30:36

know because they discovered that liquid

1:30:38

foundation models are actually pretty

1:30:39

good getting customized for a certain no

1:30:42

they're they're basically like really

1:30:45

really well orable so and and and that's

1:30:47

something that they they they figured

1:30:49

out that it comes handy for them. So now

1:30:51

we have a state-of-the-art biotech

1:30:53

foundation models like longevity

1:30:54

foundation models like these are the

1:30:56

kind of things that we're building in

1:30:57

bio and imagine like as a horizontal

1:30:59

company that is building foundation

1:31:00

models we went to like fine-tuning and

1:31:02

that became like something that we have

1:31:05

we have managed to do and then in terms

1:31:07

of um you know like some of the uh uh

1:31:10

some of the other engagements like we

1:31:11

recently with with Shopify we entered

1:31:13

like uh one uh 1 billion kind of request

1:31:17

address inside the Shopify kind of

1:31:19

framework And uh there like what we've

1:31:22

done we uh we deploy our liquid

1:31:24

foundation models in production. They

1:31:25

have been in production for the last 6

1:31:27

months and they are really serving

1:31:29

clients you know and and Shopify is like

1:31:31

a huge uh uh base like we are touching

1:31:34

100 million kind of hundreds of millions

1:31:36

of kind of users 10 billion products and

1:31:38

many different kind of uh places to to

1:31:41

integrate. We are working with

1:31:42

Mercedes-Benz as I mentioned like on the

1:31:44

car kind of side of things. We're

1:31:45

working with AMD and uh other chip

1:31:48

manufacturers to really bring AI uh

1:31:50

let's say um low code AI experiences on

1:31:53

PCs as well. So that's like another uh

1:31:55

area that we enter. The focus of our

1:31:57

company is to really uh make sure that

1:32:00

we can bring uh basically intelligence

1:32:04

outside of data centers. That's like

1:32:05

something that we have focused on and I

1:32:07

think our efficiency is actually

1:32:08

allowing us to get

1:32:09

>> preliminary matter. I have no financial

1:32:11

interest in liquid. Sorry Reine have to

1:32:13

ask the the most obvious question. I

1:32:15

have so many questions for you which is

1:32:18

the company liquid was founded as I

1:32:20

understand it and I I remember reading

1:32:21

the original I think it was in science

1:32:22

or nature paper on liquid neural

1:32:24

networks. Uh the premise is basically a

1:32:27

neuromorphic premise that that you could

1:32:30

gain useful AI insights from looking at

1:32:32

nematodes uh a few hundred neurons sort

1:32:34

of the ultimate small neural network.

1:32:38

But my perception I I'm hoping that you

1:32:40

can uh either help me amend or revise my

1:32:42

perception is that although liquid

1:32:45

started with a neuromorphic premise if

1:32:48

you will like a post transformer very

1:32:50

recurrentoriented architectural premise

1:32:53

or prior that over time again just based

1:32:56

on my perception of public messaging

1:32:58

liquid looks more and more like either

1:33:00

transformer or transformer plus or

1:33:03

transformer plus hyena plus dot dot

1:33:06

looks more and more like basically a

1:33:08

conventional off-the-shelf architecture.

1:33:11

It may be a good business selling sort

1:33:13

of customized transformer derivatives to

1:33:15

Mercedes at all. If so, great from the

1:33:18

business side. But from the technical

1:33:19

side, does Liquid still have anything

1:33:22

that looks remotely like a trans a post

1:33:25

transformer architecture either in

1:33:27

production or under development? And can

1:33:29

you speak to what if anything is post

1:33:31

transformer or non-transformer oriented

1:33:34

about the architecture that you

1:33:35

currently use? Great great question. So

1:33:38

let me tell you like the space of kind

1:33:40

of architecture. So liquid neural

1:33:42

networks in in the original form they

1:33:44

are one of the most expressive formats

1:33:46

of computes that you can actually create

1:33:48

arguably like in terms of our

1:33:49

architecture they are they have nested

1:33:51

non nonlinearities that are like in like

1:33:54

you cannot really like take them out.

1:33:56

They're like completely physics

1:33:58

inspired. They are like having like the

1:34:00

neural odes and and basically like

1:34:02

irregularly sampled data can be handled

1:34:04

by them. So they they become like one of

1:34:06

the very very general class of

1:34:08

architectures as a whole. Underneath

1:34:10

these things like when you want to scale

1:34:12

this type of technology these

1:34:13

recurrences like you know like this uh

1:34:15

nested kind of loops that they have. If

1:34:18

you want to scale these systems a lot of

1:34:20

people have attempted including

1:34:21

ourselves to linearize the dynamics so

1:34:23

that you can actually like scale them.

1:34:25

space uh uh you know state space models

1:34:27

are kind of basically like mumbas and

1:34:29

those kind of variants falling into the

1:34:32

same category of continuous time neural

1:34:34

networks but dumped down into a linear

1:34:36

kind of dynamical systems because you

1:34:38

you want to scale them. They are

1:34:39

underneath this class of continuous time

1:34:41

models that we have. Then there is like

1:34:45

there are variants of uh linear linear

1:34:47

attention gated linear attentions that

1:34:49

are coming out. They are also like

1:34:51

gating mechanism is something like

1:34:53

there's a special gating input dependent

1:34:55

gating mechanism that actually we got

1:34:57

inspired by the by by how neurons

1:35:00

actually exchange information with each

1:35:01

other. That gating mechanism is also

1:35:03

something that is adding a lot more

1:35:05

expressivity like it is also descendant

1:35:07

of the original formation of how neurons

1:35:10

exchange information with each other.

1:35:11

That gating mechanism still exists today

1:35:14

in in many different architecture and

1:35:16

including ours. But the most important

1:35:18

thing that I want to mention that you

1:35:20

should know about the technology

1:35:21

transformation of our company is that we

1:35:24

really didn't want to bias ourselves

1:35:26

towards one single architecture. One of

1:35:29

the things that we did day one at Liquid

1:35:31

AI, we designed a search algorithm to

1:35:34

let's say like you know let the

1:35:35

algorithm instead of human biasing kind

1:35:37

of the algorithm let the let the

1:35:39

algorithm run the scaling laws on let's

1:35:41

say 100 different variations of

1:35:43

operations that potentially can give you

1:35:45

a general purpose computer. So we build

1:35:47

a meta system. The paper around this is

1:35:50

actually we published like two and a

1:35:52

half years ago. We published a paper

1:35:54

about uh about the topic is called star

1:35:56

automated uh design of tailored

1:35:58

architectures. So read about style uh

1:36:01

and and star is a framework that brings

1:36:04

all the dynamical systems with any

1:36:07

format including kind of variations of

1:36:09

attention into one format for us to be

1:36:13

able to search through. Okay. So to see

1:36:15

like for four criteria what is the most

1:36:19

optimal neural architecture let's say of

1:36:22

choice for let's say a certain

1:36:23

deployment number one criteria is memory

1:36:26

like how much memory are you consuming

1:36:28

on a given processor number two was the

1:36:31

efficiency of computation how fast you

1:36:32

can operate number three is latency of

1:36:35

operations and number four do not lose

1:36:38

accuracy on the performance there are

1:36:41

pure transformer models and then there

1:36:43

are hybrid models that you can actually

1:36:44

build hybrid models have like an

1:36:46

essential compon like they have a little

1:36:48

bit of transformers in them but they're

1:36:50

but the but the rest of the kind of

1:36:52

dynamical system and most of the

1:36:53

dynamical system for the purpose of

1:36:55

these four objective functions that I

1:36:57

mentioned would be you you would change

1:36:59

that and you can actually automate this

1:37:01

whole framework to design foundation

1:37:03

models inhouse the the technology stack

1:37:06

of liquid foundation like liquid

1:37:08

foundation models is called automated

1:37:10

foundation model design kind of

1:37:12

algorithms we call it AFMD This

1:37:14

automated framework is the one that

1:37:16

explores architectures for for a given

1:37:18

kind of hardware. And guess what came

1:37:21

out of like the first generation of the

1:37:23

architectures that we started

1:37:25

optimizing. It came double gated

1:37:28

convolution kind of mechanisms as 80% of

1:37:30

the network being this. So when we run

1:37:33

without a human bias the gating

1:37:35

mechanism that we had exactly in the

1:37:37

liquid foundation liquid neural networks

1:37:39

original paper it actually shows up with

1:37:41

this very very similar kind of format in

1:37:44

the final architecture that comes out of

1:37:46

the search space.

1:37:46

>> Everybody welcome to the health section

1:37:48

of moonshots brought to you by fountain

1:37:50

life. You know we talk about AI on this

1:37:51

moonshot podcast all the time. One of

1:37:53

the most important things AI is going to

1:37:55

be able to do for you besides educating

1:37:57

your kids and helping you with your

1:37:58

taxes is making sure that you're living

1:38:01

a healthy lifestyle that you get a

1:38:03

chance to get to 100 plus. I'm here

1:38:06

today with Dr. Don Mucalem the chief

1:38:08

medical officer of Fountain Life and a

1:38:10

part of my medical team. Don a pleasure.

1:38:13

>> Great.

1:38:14

>> You know the thing that people are

1:38:15

concerned about most about living to 100

1:38:17

or 120 is their cognitive abilities.

1:38:20

making sure they don't have dementia and

1:38:24

uh the numbers about dementia are

1:38:26

problematic. Uh can you share what

1:38:28

you've learned?

1:38:29

>> Such an important point and you're right

1:38:31

at Fountain Life, our members, the

1:38:33

number one thing people are most

1:38:34

concerned about is losing their brain

1:38:36

health, forgetting the name of their

1:38:37

child, forgetting the face of their

1:38:39

loved one. We know that when it comes to

1:38:40

dementia, the conservative estimates are

1:38:43

that 45% are entirely preventable. What

1:38:46

was amazing is with the advanced testing

1:38:49

we're doing at Fountain Life, one

1:38:51

quarter of our members had advanced

1:38:53

brain age.

1:38:54

>> Wow.

1:38:54

>> But what was really awesome is again

1:38:56

back to that prevention when we

1:38:57

partnered it with healthy living. This

1:38:59

gives me chills. Eating healthier,

1:39:01

moving our bodies sleep, optimizing

1:39:04

sleep is so important. You know what we

1:39:05

saw? We saw that we improved that brain

1:39:07

age by 26%. That is a big big number to

1:39:11

show that the majority of those

1:39:13

individuals were able actually to

1:39:15

improve the brain age.

1:39:16

>> And one of the things I love about

1:39:17

Fountain is we're searching the world

1:39:18

for the best therapeutics, the best

1:39:20

approaches, and making sure we bring it

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brain function uh till 100, 120 is

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important to you, check out Fountain

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Life. Go to fountainlife.com/per.

1:39:33

Make sure you become the CEO of your own

1:39:35

health. All right, now back to the

1:39:36

episode. All right, our next story comes

1:39:38

from Palmer Lucky, the founder of Oculus

1:39:40

and now the chairman of the defense

1:39:43

giant Andre. It's it's funny to call

1:39:45

Andre a defense giant, but it is. He's

1:39:47

claiming that the modern patent system

1:39:49

has become a national security

1:39:51

liability. In his words, the entire

1:39:52

patent office could be downloaded every

1:39:55

morning, ripped off, and used to fight a

1:39:57

war against you. The core problem is

1:39:59

baked into what uh patents actually do.

1:40:03

Uh patents are a requirement. If you

1:40:06

want to get a patent, you have to teach

1:40:08

uh a uh a person skilled in the art how

1:40:13

to actually uh you know create and use

1:40:16

your device. So this disclosure of your

1:40:19

invention and the exact words and patent

1:40:21

law is in uh such full clear and concise

1:40:24

and exact terms as to enable any person

1:40:27

skilled in the art to make and use the

1:40:30

same. So if you do that, you're

1:40:32

effectively teaching the world how to

1:40:34

use it. uh and you're exchanging that

1:40:37

that uh sharing of your invention for

1:40:39

roughly 20 years of exclusivity. Palmer

1:40:42

argues that when a strategic adversary

1:40:44

can simply harvest every file, ignore

1:40:47

the legal protections, and weaponize the

1:40:50

disclosed knowledge, you've handed them

1:40:52

a free instruction manual to your best

1:40:54

ideas. So, just for some numbers, the US

1:40:57

Patent Office receives about 600,000

1:40:59

applications annually. It grants a

1:41:02

little over half of those 323,000.

1:41:04

Uh that's 2025 data. Uh interestingly

1:41:07

enough, patents uh uh granted have

1:41:10

increased 40% in the last 5 years. My

1:41:13

guess is that is uh secondary to AI.

1:41:16

Palmer's proposed fix isn't to abolish

1:41:19

patents. It's to massively scale up a

1:41:22

national security patent process which

1:41:24

goes back to the Secrecy Act of 1951.

1:41:28

So this obscure mechanism lets inventors

1:41:30

obtain classified patents in which you

1:41:33

keep your exclusive rights but you don't

1:41:36

disclose it to anyone and neither can

1:41:37

the government. So there roughly 6,000

1:41:40

of these uh secure secrecy orders active

1:41:43

in the US. Lucky wants that this edge

1:41:46

case uh is turned into default

1:41:48

mechanism. So here's the question,

1:41:51

right? If we genuinely uh trade this

1:41:54

openness which has been sort of the

1:41:56

basis for American entrepreneurial

1:41:58

exceptionalism uh for a a secret system.

1:42:02

Are we trading safety of having our

1:42:05

patents ripped off against really the

1:42:07

innovative ecosystem that we've had?

1:42:10

Let's watch a short video from uh from

1:42:13

Palmer and then we'll talk about it.

1:42:16

>> Stop patenting everything. Uh patents

1:42:18

are Chinese instruction manual. Well,

1:42:19

the founding fathers never predicted a

1:42:21

world where you would have a globalized

1:42:22

economy where the entire patent office

1:42:24

could be downloaded every single morning

1:42:26

and then ripped off and then used to

1:42:28

fight a war against you. We need to

1:42:30

really fundamentally revisit the patent

1:42:32

system. I think we need to massively

1:42:34

expand the national security patent

1:42:37

process. Uh you can you can obtain a

1:42:39

classified patent. You can get a patent

1:42:41

on something that you are not allowed to

1:42:42

disclose to anyone, but you still

1:42:44

maintain the exclusivity on those

1:42:45

rights. We need to massively expand that

1:42:47

program. So, you know, I've applied for

1:42:51

and gotten a dozen patents. I know Alex,

1:42:53

you have a even a much larger number of

1:42:55

them. Uh, so I'm curious, guys, how do

1:42:58

you come out on this? Alex, do you want

1:43:00

to kick it off?

1:43:02

>> I I think this is the episode of people

1:43:05

uh tech CEOs floating terrible ideas. I

1:43:07

think this is a terrible idea. I I think

1:43:10

the I would argue the invention secrecy

1:43:13

act of 1951 which is I I think what

1:43:16

Palmer is gesturing at has been probably

1:43:18

on balance quite detrimental not just to

1:43:22

democracy uh that if patents so maybe a

1:43:26

bit of context the the way the the

1:43:28

invention secrecy act works is uh it's

1:43:31

it's not that you can just sort of file

1:43:34

the patent in secret and not disclose uh

1:43:36

it it's that basically it can only be

1:43:39

practiced the invention that uh that is

1:43:42

basically confiscated or eminent

1:43:44

domained by the military can only be

1:43:47

practiced for military reasons. It's not

1:43:49

contra uh any construal otherwise that

1:43:52

invention secrecy act somehow offers

1:43:54

legal cover for an individual to

1:43:57

secretly disclose how their invention

1:43:59

works uh under some confidentiality and

1:44:01

then go practice it in general. They

1:44:03

can't. It's that the military

1:44:05

exclusively can practice it and then the

1:44:08

inventor gets royalties from that

1:44:10

practice. That may be good for Andre's

1:44:13

defense business, but I I think in

1:44:15

general terrible idea. Greater concern

1:44:17

that I have is it these are these would

1:44:20

be basically secret monopolies. Uh I I

1:44:22

think it's bad enough that we have

1:44:24

invention secrecy act classification of

1:44:27

inventions query whether entire swaths

1:44:31

of technology that could be completely

1:44:34

transformative economically to the

1:44:35

entire world from an energy perspective

1:44:38

for other domains have somehow without

1:44:41

general knowledge been swept up by the

1:44:43

invention secrecy act and basically

1:44:45

confiscated by the department of war for

1:44:48

purely military reasons. That's that's

1:44:51

very concerning to me. The idea of

1:44:53

expanding it overall. I I would argue if

1:44:55

if anything the invention secrecy act

1:44:57

regime should probably go away.

1:44:59

>> We can have this debate. So Palmer is

1:45:00

going to be joining us at uh at the

1:45:02

moonshots gathering on September 25th in

1:45:04

LA. Everybody go to moonshots.com. We

1:45:07

have an amazing day with the moonshot

1:45:09

mates there. We'll be having these

1:45:11

conversations with Palmer Salem. Uh I

1:45:14

mean the what makes America great is our

1:45:17

open innovation policy. people building

1:45:19

on top of other people's creations. What

1:45:21

are your thoughts here?

1:45:23

>> Look, we've seen this uh problem uh get

1:45:28

bigger and bigger over the last 20 to 30

1:45:30

years, okay? Where the disclosure,

1:45:34

especially in an age of AI where people

1:45:36

can just route around it or replicate or

1:45:38

learn from it, it's it's a huge

1:45:40

challenge. The the real mode is learning

1:45:43

loops. uh that's going to be the real

1:45:45

defensibility is what are your feedback

1:45:47

loops and can you learn in a proprietary

1:45:49

way and then create trade secrets around

1:45:51

that and action that in the marketplace.

1:45:54

Continuous innovation is going to be the

1:45:56

winning defense. It's not going to be

1:45:57

ownership. The only people that win in

1:45:59

this whole in this particular model are

1:46:01

the lawyers.

1:46:02

>> Well said. Um Dave, any thoughts here?

1:46:06

>> Yeah, I think you know if there's a

1:46:07

flash point for a World War III, this is

1:46:09

probably one of the most likely

1:46:11

>> seriously

1:46:11

>> where Yeah. Well, well, you know, look,

1:46:14

Alex is right. We're going to discover

1:46:16

new physics, new medicines at an

1:46:18

incredible accelerating rate. And, you

1:46:20

know, places like Europe respect

1:46:22

intellectual property rights, and that

1:46:24

creates a kind of a coherent economy

1:46:26

where you can trade these things. China

1:46:28

completely ignores intellectual property

1:46:30

rights and and just takes it and runs

1:46:32

with it. Uh, so I think the likely

1:46:34

outcome of that is the US will trade

1:46:36

embargo anybody who doesn't respect

1:46:38

intellectual property rights. then you

1:46:40

have to choose are you part of the you

1:46:42

know the free world or you part of the

1:46:44

alternate world but I think that's the

1:46:46

more likely um outcome and that's going

1:46:49

to happen soon like in the next couple

1:46:51

of years because the rate of innovation

1:46:52

is going to go through the roof but

1:46:53

there's no science fiction future book

1:46:55

I've ever read where there isn't massive

1:46:58

amounts of intellectual property being

1:47:00

created by AI at an incredible

1:47:01

accelerating rate and there's some

1:47:03

vehicle by which innovators can profit

1:47:05

from that and if you don't have that

1:47:07

then you don't have the future you a

1:47:09

huge fraction of brilliant thinkers

1:47:13

coming out of, you know, Cambridge and

1:47:14

MIT and Harvard don't work on

1:47:16

foundational technologies because

1:47:19

there's no money in it. And that's got

1:47:21

to change fundamentally. And protecting

1:47:23

intellectual property rights is a key

1:47:25

key way to reverse that tide and get

1:47:27

people working on really important

1:47:28

things.

1:47:29

>> Y I think to Dave's point also, Palmer

1:47:32

fundamentally misunder or appears to

1:47:34

misunderstand the nature of patents. The

1:47:36

whole point of a patent is that you

1:47:38

disclose how it works in return for a

1:47:40

state granted temporary monopoly on it

1:47:43

and say, you know, sort of belly aching

1:47:46

that the the Chinese are running away

1:47:48

with the disclosure. It is really a

1:47:50

quibble with enforcement of of patent.

1:47:53

It it's not you don't want to throw

1:47:54

necessarily the baby out with the

1:47:55

bathwater and say we want to give away

1:47:58

the the patent trade of disclosure in

1:48:00

return for temporary monopoly. Really

1:48:02

what he should be asking is better

1:48:04

enforcement of US patents in China.

1:48:07

>> Agreed. All right, I'm going to move us

1:48:08

into the world of healthcare abundance.

1:48:10

So, two stories this week are

1:48:11

demonstrating an incredible impact of AI

1:48:13

on healthcare abundance, demonetizing

1:48:16

and democratizing diagnostics uh for

1:48:19

billions of people. The first story is

1:48:21

the performance of GPT 5.6 six saw uh

1:48:24

which was released a couple weeks ago on

1:48:27

healthbench professional which is

1:48:28

openai's hardest medical benchmark uh so

1:48:32

jat GPT or GPT 5.6 saw set a brand new

1:48:35

all-time benchmark high and then the

1:48:38

second part coming out here is in a

1:48:40

blind test across roughly 20,000

1:48:43

individual physician judgments in other

1:48:45

words uh you know diagnos diagnosing for

1:48:48

accuracy safety completeness GPT 5.6 ICS

1:48:52

answers were compared to specialty

1:48:55

matched physicians other words

1:48:56

pulmonologists, pediatricians, whatever,

1:48:58

who were given unlimited uh full access

1:49:01

to the web and unlimited time to answer

1:49:04

and the doctors still lost. So we've got

1:49:07

Chad GPT. We've known this for some time

1:49:09

that these AI diagnostic models are

1:49:11

better than the best physicians given

1:49:13

all the tools that humans can use. The

1:49:16

second part of the story comes from

1:49:17

Meta. So, OpenAI's own healthbench

1:49:21

professional benchmark which is 525 real

1:49:25

clinical tasks. Meta's Muse Spark 1.1

1:49:28

again released last week uh beat chat

1:49:32

GPTs uh or GPT 5.6 Saul on across the

1:49:36

marks and it was 7 times cheaper. But

1:49:39

even better, I mean important to note

1:49:41

here is that Muse Spark is free inside

1:49:45

of all of Meta's products. you know,

1:49:47

WhatsApp and Facebook and Meta today

1:49:50

serves 3.56

1:49:52

billion daily active users using their

1:49:55

products. So, here we've got a situation

1:49:58

where the top medical AI capabilities

1:50:01

are now free to over 3 and a half

1:50:05

billion people on the planet. And that's

1:50:07

just extraordinary. I mean, this is the

1:50:08

abundance thesis at large. Uh and again

1:50:12

as people talk about the concerns of AI

1:50:14

and so forth, please realize this.

1:50:16

People who've never had access to the

1:50:18

best diagnosticians now have them. Sim

1:50:22

there is a there's there's a model in an

1:50:24

AI doctor in China that's being used in

1:50:27

rural environments by 100 million people

1:50:30

already. Right? Basically diagnosis is

1:50:34

has had massive cost collapse. The

1:50:36

healthcare domain is particularly

1:50:38

interesting because it's where abundance

1:50:40

becomes actually morally urgent, right?

1:50:43

If you can deliver way better first

1:50:45

inline answers at at like near zero

1:50:47

cost, it's how quickly can you safely

1:50:50

get it out there? That's the only

1:50:51

question. And so, uh, it's absolutely

1:50:54

and right, let's recognize that in

1:50:57

almost every country in the world,

1:50:59

there's radical doctor shortage.

1:51:01

>> So, this is really, really critical. You

1:51:03

see like this is such a July 2026 story

1:51:06

where think about it Instagram now gives

1:51:09

better medical advice than a human

1:51:10

doctor.

1:51:11

>> It's it's it's pretty pretty wild. It

1:51:14

cost of intelligence not just going too

1:51:16

cheap to meter. Cost of medical

1:51:18

intelligence becoming too cheap to

1:51:20

meter. free basically free. I mean

1:51:23

that's

1:51:24

>> well the the ultimate too cheap to meter

1:51:25

is asmmptoically free right but I I I

1:51:28

would say probably I I in all honesty I

1:51:31

suspect a little bit of mild benchmaxing

1:51:33

by meta on on this meta spark 1.1 is on

1:51:38

if you believe the ai

1:51:40

cost frontier analysis it is on the

1:51:43

optimal cost frontier but it's not at

1:51:46

the top so if it's beating say fable 5

1:51:49

which barely allows you to do anything

1:51:51

biological or GPT 5.6 which does allow

1:51:54

you to do it. That does to me suggest uh

1:51:56

in all honesty a little bit of mild

1:51:58

benchmaxing but still it's it's a great

1:52:00

day when Instagram gives better medical

1:52:03

advice than human doctors.

1:52:04

>> I think that's our that's our takeaway

1:52:06

uh quote from the from today's pod. Um

1:52:09

I'm going to uh move us to one more

1:52:11

longevity story that I love. This is

1:52:13

breaking news from yesterday. Uh and it

1:52:16

really got me excited here. I know you

1:52:18

Alex and I were talking about this. So

1:52:20

for for decades, one of the fundamental

1:52:22

problems of aging uh is the slow

1:52:25

accumulation of of what are called

1:52:28

advanced glycation end products. I love

1:52:30

the acronym. It's called ages. A ge

1:52:33

uh and these are sugar molecules that

1:52:35

cross link and damage your proteins in

1:52:38

your body over the course of time. So

1:52:40

this chemical reaction is called

1:52:41

glycation. And it happens slowly in our

1:52:44

bodies as we age. It stiffens your

1:52:45

arteries. It clouds your lenses with

1:52:47

cataracts. It damages kidneys. wrinkled

1:52:49

skins. And this idea uh is that it's

1:52:53

always been irreversible until this

1:52:56

week. And yesterday in Nature

1:52:57

Communications, a team from a new

1:52:59

startup called Revel Pharmaceuticals

1:53:01

demonstrated an engineered enzyme called

1:53:04

CMLA uh that acts like a molecular lawn

1:53:07

mower. I love their description. A

1:53:08

molecular lawn mower. It oxidizes away

1:53:10

the glycation scars and restores the

1:53:13

original healthy protein underneath. And

1:53:16

amazingly, this isn't happening just in

1:53:18

a test tube. They showed it worked in

1:53:21

human tissue samples from elderly

1:53:23

donors, reversing damage that

1:53:25

accumulated over the lifetime. It's

1:53:27

still early, but the significance of

1:53:29

this cannot be overstated. A category in

1:53:32

aging that we've always filed as

1:53:34

permanent just became reversible. Um and

1:53:39

again we talk about longevity escape

1:53:41

velocity we talk about you know our

1:53:43

ability to understand the 5 billion

1:53:45

chemical reactions per second per cell

1:53:48

in your 40 trillion cells and when we

1:53:51

talk about reaching lev you know escape

1:53:54

velocity by 2033 it's tech like this so

1:53:57

congrats to uh to Revel um in in doing

1:54:00

this

1:54:01

>> and and not just Revel I mean a couple

1:54:04

of interesting notes here it was Revel

1:54:06

and Calico the California Life Company

1:54:10

that was one of the one of the alphabet

1:54:12

other bets that's been I would say like

1:54:15

a lot quieter than say Whimo. Uh they're

1:54:18

still doing work that that's very

1:54:20

encouraging to me that Calico is

1:54:22

apparently deeply involved in this and

1:54:24

and has a heartbeat. A couple of other

1:54:26

points the the broader process here

1:54:28

class of chemical reactions are called

1:54:31

Mayard reactions. It's also the reason

1:54:33

why when you bake bread the the outer

1:54:35

crust is usually brown or chemical

1:54:39

>> or yeah or or it's why this is

1:54:41

vegetarian speaking why everything

1:54:43

purportedly tastes like chicken. Uh it's

1:54:45

the same class of reactions but the the

1:54:47

sugar is reacting with uh the carbonial

1:54:50

um functional group or carbonial uh uh

1:54:53

groups within sugars reacting with um

1:54:56

with the amines in in proteins to to

1:54:59

create broad class of molecules that

1:55:01

that look optically brown. So the same

1:55:03

thing is going on in the human body. To

1:55:05

to me this is very exciting because it's

1:55:07

not quite unscrambling eggs but it's it

1:55:10

it's halfway there. It's it feels almost

1:55:12

it again strictly speaking it's not like

1:55:15

uh reversal of the thermodynamic arrow

1:55:17

of time but it's the next best thing if

1:55:19

if we can remove all of these uh

1:55:22

unwanted sugar plus protein byproducts

1:55:26

that are associated with inflammation

1:55:28

and and other coralates of aging with uh

1:55:32

directed evolution of uh of a protein

1:55:35

that came from bacteria. Like what else

1:55:37

is there out there in the biosphere for

1:55:39

us to mine in addition to all the

1:55:41

obvious glip ones? Great potential for

1:55:44

uh longevity, escape velocity. What

1:55:46

other bacterial innovations can we use

1:55:48

to turn back agent?

1:55:50

>> It's human engineering. We're taking

1:55:51

control. It's going from evolution by

1:55:53

natural selection to evolution by human

1:55:55

direction. And I love that.

1:55:58

>> I'll be I'll be happy when I have

1:55:59

Ramine's hair.

1:56:01

>> That's when I'll be happy.

1:56:02

>> Well, there are lots of companies

1:56:03

working on that, Sem. So gentlemen, uh

1:56:06

grateful for our time today. I'm excited

1:56:09

for Starship 13 launch later today. Wish

1:56:13

Elon and the the group there uh lots of

1:56:16

luck. Uh Reine, congrats on the success

1:56:19

of Liquid AI and and excited to have you

1:56:22

on the pod with us. Dave, great move

1:56:24

investing in Reine. Um

1:56:27

>> on behalf of all of our

1:56:30

Thank you.

1:56:30

>> Yeah, gentlemen. Have an amazing week.

1:56:33

I'm I'm sure we'll be having an

1:56:34

emergency pod very soon because the

1:56:37

speed of the singularity waits for

1:56:38

nobody.

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