Apakah Sekarang Waktunya Beli Bitcoin di Harga Bottom? - Ft. Angga Andinata

Right now, we are at the point of approaching 500 days before halving. Will the next cycle follow the same thing? Who knows? But there is something unique. The Bitcoin bottom has always been one month ahead of the previous three cycles. There may still be a phase of last lag, last capitulation, but the risk-reward is okay. When is the best purchase of Bitcoin in one cycle? That is, on the side below the 200-week moving average.

Those who bought below this 100% moving average, bro, in the previous cycle, they said, "Oh, I'm lucky." Maybe next cycle, bro. Maybe next cycle I want to sell a part. Oh, you want to follow the seller, right? Why do I want to sell a part? Because

Okay, let's talk again with Bro Angga, this is the most distant guest. You have to fly a plane to come here. Thank you bro for coming here. So we want to discuss a few things, especially about Bitcoin. Because Bitcoin has dropped 50% from our ATH point, even though it has recovered again. But the recovery is still -40% if people buy it in the market. Then there is another phenomenon, which is

Michael Saylor, because he sold 3.6 billion bitcoins, which is about 4 trillion, but he always said "Never sell your bitcoin"

So suddenly, it's Meladia who launched Bitcoin, right? The person with the largest holder in the world. That's why I want to know from you, with this phenomenon, what is the next cycle like? Have you had any staff that has changed your view, your conviction towards Bitcoin? But before we start, bro, there are many people who ask, bro. This is Henky Adinata's brother, his brother is Henky, who is Henky Adinata.

Banyak orang yang...

- Do you have the same thing with many people who DM you? - That's it. I hope that the same thing happens with Hoki. - Yes. - Who knows, he could be a wheel in the stock market. - Yes. He's in the stock market and in the hype, bro. Both of them. Maybe the same as me, who is Budi Hartono. If you're still the difference between N, Adinata and Adinata, people skip. I'm the same.

- All of them are Kartono? - Yes, yes. - But the fate is different. - No, it's too low. - This doesn't appear in the 1% BCA ownership. - Half a percent maybe. - 0.99 lot. - But we started this, bro. What if, for example, with the sales salesman, after that the cycle is now back to 50,000, now to 60,000.

Do you think anything has changed with Bitcoin? From my point of view, from the point of view of conviction, nothing has changed, bro. From the point of view of conviction, yes.

But Michael Saylor is unique. I see him as a scapegoat, a black sheep. Whereas the Bitcoin he owns and the Bitcoin he sells are very different. He owns 840,000 Bitcoins. He sells 3,600 Bitcoins, which is only 0.0%.

and 0.0% sales will not make a bear market. It's so small. So small in my opinion. And the seller sells, actually, he repeats his strategy that he did in 2022.

which is tax loss harvesting. So by selling with losses, it can save from the tax side. That's why he said he sold but still became a net buyer.

- Okay, I will have a segment that will be a deep dive into the seller. But I want to focus on your loop first. - Okay. - If it's from you, how much is 100% of your portfolio in Bitcoin right now? - The majority is Bitcoin, bro. 100% Bitcoin.

There are a few, but I would say it's a cowboy account. So I have a special account for cowboys. - Outcoin? - Yes, I can buy NFT, buy Ordinals, etc. This is a cowboy account.

investing in Bitcoin only is boring bro, just the CA only test is boring but as an investor and trader, we need dopamine bro and besides dopamine, I also need to master my skills for the needs of content too that's why I can talk about Ordinals, about Runestone, because I

- What's the use of my account? - If it's from 100% of the price, how much is in Bitcoin, how much is in Rupiah, in stock, in obligation, and in the Cowboy account? - There's no Rupiah, bro. Honestly, my Rupiah is only Rp. 7 million. So, if you want to fly, I'll see what it's called.

How much is my salary? Is it enough to buy food at the airport? So if you want to pay your electricity bill at the end of the month, you have to pay for it. I don't have electricity. I don't have electricity. Okay. But you have electricity bills, you have school children. So you sell Bitcoin first? That's my electricity bill. We also have...

from the Fiat side, we also have Bitcoin Bidger, which we use to roll in family affairs. - Yes, I see. That's what makes family affairs, you can live every day. - That's right. - You don't have to invest, you can invest 100%. - My current income is 7 million, really. Maybe less. - 7 million is optimistic. - It's okay, I can buy a few bitcoins. - No comment, no comment. - 7 million dollars. - Okay, so what's the rest?

- Okay, so you can say that there are no Rupiahs in fiat. What about the rest? You mentioned Rupiah, Bitcoin, and Cowboy Account. Are there any more? - No, there aren't. - There are only two buckets, Cowboy Account and Bitcoin. - Cowboy Account and Bitcoin are for investment. - How much is the split? How much is the Bitcoin?

More than 98% bro. So 98% Bitcoin, 2% Cowboy, the rest is 0.1% Rupiah. Yup. Yup. Yup. I'm a person like that. But it's funny if my friends don't know. Back then...

I used to be from the opposite side, right? A person who never touched crypto before. Actually Bro Angga was one of the first people I talked about Bitcoin in 2003. We knew each other from there. He was introduced to Andi Sanjaya. I asked him about Bitcoin, and he even gave me a referral. "We need to talk about the temperature too, Bro Angga." That's why I knew him from there. And from there until now, he's still all in on Bitcoin.

But you're not like this, okay, for example, do you have a regret? For example, the regret is like this, "Oh, you know what? I was in October last year or in Q4 last year, I should have trimmed this, I should have moved it to IDR first, even." Or you now, if you repeat it again, you will be like this again. Yes, I want it to be positioned 100% in Bitcoin.

um,

Maybe next cycle, I want to sell half of it. Oh, you want to follow the seller? Why do I want to sell half of it? Because I want to finish it. Finish it with Bitcoin? No, I mean I want to finish it. I want to finish it with all, I don't want to look for achievements anymore. I mean I want to retire, bro. What do you mean finish it, bro? You're threatening me with retirement. I said, okay, retirement. The point is I want to

So maybe they want to sell some, but not to the 50% that they don't need.

The point is to sell some for the pension model for the next cycle. Because I'm pretty much, maybe we're in the same age, bro. I'm already in my fourth year. - Oh, in terms of age, but in terms of Bitcoin, he's more senior. - Only because I bought it a little earlier, bro.

Even though he finally kept it, if I were him, I would sell it. But I'm still in the entry. But for the previous cycle, you can say almost no regret. Why is that? You can even say I'm lucky. Lucky. Why is that? Lucky because we use a leverage strategy. Like what I told you, we use

Maybe you are more familiar with the term "margin". So in the first half of October or November, I don't remember if I'm right, we have closed the position. We closed the position, we told all the members

We still have to maintain our position. Because if we were still in denial, maybe I wouldn't be here today. Maybe at McDonald's. - So, the way you reduce risk is by reducing your margin, your leverage. - That's right. We have zero margin. Zero leverage.

So for Bro Angga, 98% in Bitcoin, 100% in crypto, he has conservative. His aggressive is 100% crypto plus margin. Yes, and when Bitcoin was 95,000, we shared another Kung Fu.

I gave the name of Kung Fu as "Bitcoin on Bitcoin Loan" So you can say that this is a short Bitcoin in the spot market. Now everything is done, reset DGA again. So it means that there are people who ask, when will Bro Angga all-in again on Bitcoin? What is the target for the month? The problem is, how do you keep all-in?

- So you still deposit every month, you have income, the rest of your life, you get your income, you use it to spend your life, the rest you deposit Bitcoin. - Yes, deposit Bitcoin. And actually the best period to deposit Bitcoin is now. The best time to buy Bitcoin is when it's below 200B moving average.

- Right. Which is more bullish, Hyperliquid or Bitcoin? You have zero on Hyperliquid, right? - I have a little on Hyperliquid. If you have watched it, February, Bro Rey and I asked for 1 altcoin.

I said, "Hyperliquid?" "Why hyperliquid?" I said, "Hyperliquid is above the 30-week moving average." I said, "That's what it is." I had a little bit of hyperliquid at that time.

But in the current position, I'm still holding, there is also hedging with SHARP now, because I'm a little scared of the current chart in hyperliquid. Maybe there is a minor trend reversal. It doesn't mean that the hyperliquid is over, but maybe if what I see from the chart, from the technical analysis, there is a big possibility of a minor trend reversal.

- Yes. Then, in your opinion, how many BTC do we need to have? - As much as possible. If you are a seller or a black rock, you can buy as much as possible.

This is a sister cherry food smile. You ask a person who is 100% conservative. So, the answer is like that. Okay, but if for example,

Your family asks you, "Why not?" For example, I have money, for example, 100 million in the bank. How much do I put into Bitcoin? I'm a worker. If a friend comes to you like that, what is your answer? Just learn Bitcoin first. Because we can't hold Bitcoin, invest in something without having a conviction.

So we have to have conviction on that asset. If you don't have conviction, it seems that the decrease in the price of the stock makes us have an influence on our psychology. - Yes. Did the fact that it dropped 50% from the ATH yesterday

has it affected your psychological life? Have you ever thought, "Oh, I know that." - Psychologically, not. Because I have a little privilege. My privilege is I bought Bitcoin very early. So in 2022, when the price was still Rp. 16,000, with a drop of 50% even now,

It's still in profit, it's still in the money. That's my privilege. There is a drawdown of 50%. But what I have conviction, what I have belief is that Bitcoin is the only asset that can keep its cycle. And there are no other assets that can keep its cycle.

Rarely. There are few people who can repeat the cycle again and again. That's rare, Bro. - So, do you think the cycle will continue? - For now, yes. The cycle will continue. Because if we make a mistake, stupid mistake,

there is always a quote that I say, it's a sin-sweeping. Sin-sweeping in the next cycle. For example, those who bought in the last quarter at Rp126,000, as long as they are still holding, their sins will be washed in the next decade. Those who buy Bitcoin at Rp69,000, their sins will be washed in the next decade of 2024-2025.

So it's unique and not in other assets that I see. 200-week moving average of Bitcoin is always going up. - As long as it's uptrend. - And there are no assets in the world

which is up to today, the 200 week moving average, it keeps rising. But there is no such thing. I don't see S&P 500. But maybe from the upside, it's not as fast as Bitcoin. From the tax benefit, it's not as good as Bitcoin. - Oh, if it's in India? - Yes, in India.

- Yes, yes, yes. Okay. We want to talk about sellers, but can you recap it? Like, when did the seller sell and what happened? Before I ask you in more detail.

- I don't remember when it was sold. Because in my opinion, it's just noise in the market. What was sold was only 0.X% bro. It didn't have any effect on the Bitcoin market. But what affected the Bitcoin market was not the seller, but actually the activities of the wheels that are not visible. - Okay, what do you mean? - So, the activities

- Paroji. Paroji activity. But many people blame the seller. That's weird. Even though the paroji sells much more since the price of around 90-100 thousand. - Maybe because the seller is the most vocal. - That's why I said it became a scapegoat. - But there is one person who makes a concern, the seller is inspiring

modelnya dia dengan dia punya corporate finance strategy itu menginspirasi banyak perusahaan untuk meng-copy paste dia. Intinya kan dia pakai kungfu-kungfu finance buat dapat di pendanaan dan duit dia itu tuh buat dibeliin bitcoin gitu kan. Berarti kan kalau misalnya dulu-dulu tuh selalu ada yang nge-bit terus. Selalu ada permabit gitu. Nge-bit.

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Maybe there are some other Bitcoin tests that are being sold. But what is being worried about is that the permabit is starting to disappear. Is that worrying? Because if no one keeps buying, then what happens? What do you think? I read the promo of Bitcoin Treacherous Company.

And in 2024, the price was driven by ETF at that time. The price of Bitcoin was pumped. In 2025, the price of Bitcoin was pumped, right? Until Rp126,000 was driven by the Bitcoin Treasuries Company. So what happened to the Bitcoin Treasuries Company now?

What happened was a fall. A fall. Many things didn't happen, many CEOs went back. Last time I saw, Jack Mallers, the CEO of 21, went back. So maybe, if I see, this strategy can't be applied in companies other than strategy.

- Besides strategy, why did it become or maybe the strategy has the potential to explode? That's also worried, right? - There is potential like that. So why can't it be implemented in other companies besides strategy? Because strategy has a privilege. It has a privilege since 2002. It started early. Where other companies don't have it. And in the financial market, it has the principle of "winners take it all."

So what are people for? For example,

invest in a company that is underdog. It's better to look for a safe one, to the macro strategy or the strategy of Michael Saylor. So for other Bitcoin and Treasuries companies, have no chance. And this is unique, Bro. When there is, maybe I have said it here, if I'm not mistaken, when there is XXX season,

it may be the top of that season. Do you understand what I mean? - What is it? - So, in 2025, there will be a Bitcoin Trader's Company Season. All companies are declaring themselves as Bitcoin Trader's Company. They will make the next strategy.

There's a Bitcoin Treasuries Company Season. The price of Bitcoin Treasuries Company shares is rising. When that happened, the test stopped for 10 assets, for the assets of Bitcoin Treasuries Company. It's the same as what happened last time, there was a meme season in Robinhood, in the Robinhood chain. It was just a moment.

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the price of Bitcoin goes down below the expected price, then it goes down not only once, but over a period of time, it turns out to stay below, so that the strategy is liquidated, it's forced to sell. When they get forced to sell, they have to sell the price of Bitcoin below, and that will cause more selling pressure, so it's like a spiral down. Is there a concern there?

From the health side of the company, let's open up the data. So all the strategy activities are already on the website. And this is very transparent, even though in a bit strange language. But I'll just try to tell you briefly.

So what was asked earlier, it's scary if this strategy is forced to sell. That's the food that happened. Oh, back then, if I'm not mistaken, there was food at the price of Bitcoin at Rp75,000, that strategy will be forced to sell. Whereas if we have data,

Not like that, Bro. So, this company, Strategi.com, has a market cap of Rp. 37 billion.

with holding Bitcoin at IDR 843,775. And the Bitcoin is not collateralized. So this is fresh. It has a liquid asset that can be sold anytime at any price. The BTC reserve is IDR 55 billion.

What was asked earlier, when Bitcoin goes down to a very low price, and then stays at the bottom for a long time, will the strategy go for sale? So why did the seller sell Bitcoin yesterday? Because they expected a slightly different strategy in the bear market this time. The strategy was a "Bail strategy".

So Barbell Strategy has cash reserve and Bitcoin reserve. Cash reserve is used to pay dividends, to pay debts, or maybe to buy Bitcoin again. But the point is for dividends.

As soon as the price of Bitcoin goes down to a certain price, it will not be liquidated because the Bitcoin is not collateralized, not guaranteed. So this is not a margin. Then, because it already has a bubble strategy, already has a US dollar reserve, then even though Bitcoin is at zero price, it has a buffer for 22 months.

for 22 months. Meanwhile, from the current point of view, the possibility of a bear market, in my personal opinion, is not even a year, maybe a few months left. This is just the final capitulation. So with the USD reserve, they can hold for 22 months. But if this is over, if this is over, and they need to sell their Bitcoin,

They have a buffer for 31 years, bro. With a Bitcoin price of Rp. 65,000. So if the Bitcoin price is Rp. 65,000, they have a buffer for 31 years,

before Bitcoin was sold to pay off all the dividends and debts that he had. - But is this included in his Convertible Note? - Yes, later Convertible Note will be added. So the debt from Convertible Note is here, bro. It's in this column. The debt is only 6.7 billion USD. While Bitcoin's reserve is 55 billion USD.

with a 6% leverage. So we can say that this is not a company, this is a person. This person has a very safe debt, Bro.

If I think he has a very safe debt, he has a buffer cash to hold his emergency funds. - He has a margin of safety that is still high. - He has a security debt of 22 months. And he has a liquid asset that can hold all his debts up to 31 years. Assuming the price of Bitcoin is still Rp. 65,000.

- How much is the average purchase? If I'm not mistaken, it's around Rp. 75,000? - If I'm not mistaken, yes. You should check the strategy website. Everything is transparent here. - Does it mean that if you buy Bitcoin at home, you are smarter than the seller? Their average is lower than the seller's Rp. 75,000? - Yes, because the seller buys it without his money.

- -

We have the previous cycle, we have 4 times, but I don't put the 2012 cycle. The point is this is 2016, 2020, and 2024. If we look from here, this is from the bottom. From the bottom until the halving period, it's about 500 days.

If we look from here, the range is between 400-500 days, the bottom. If we look at the next period, it's similar. Even this 1000 days, sorry, why am I here? Here, until halving. Before halving, 500 days before halving, that's the bottom. Right now, we are at a point that is quite similar

Approaching 500 days, we have 3 months, 4 months left, so October is about 500 days before halving. What do you think? And this is similar, if we zoom in here, just for the sake of science, we zoom in and this is still much more

"Bitcoin used to be only this much, it has to be this far." - "And 10 years later, people will say, 'Bitcoin used to be only Rp65,000." - Yes, it's similar. 300 days, 500 days, something like that. So we're already in 4 cycles that are similar to this. The question is, will the next cycle follow the same thing? What do you think?

- Who knows? But there's something unique. There's something unique from the previous 3 cycles. Bitcoin's bottom has always been one month ahead of the previous 3 cycles. The previous cycle was November. 2022 was November. Then in 2018, it was December.

in January 2015. So, the bonus this time fell in October. But anyway, with the current price, the risk and reward ratio is really okay. Because in my opinion,

there may still be a phase of last leg, last capitulation, but the risk-reward is already okay. We have rebounded from 50,000 to 65,000. Do you think we have passed the bottom or there is still a potential for us to be corrected again? In my personal opinion,

Last low yesterday will be retested, bro. In my personal opinion. Because there is still a midterm election. The midterm election this year is November 3rd, 2026. In 2022, the midterm election is November 8th. Exactly on November 8th, the price of Bitcoin is down. November 11th, the price of Bitcoin is Rp15,000.

- But is the previous mid-term similar? - I haven't checked the previous mid-term yet. But Bitcoin always performs badly in the mid-term election. - What is the correlation? Is it just a coincidence since the data set is only one or is there a certain reason why the mid-term is the same as the lower number? - But in the stock market, there is data that shows it on average.

In the midterm election, the stock market also didn't perform very well.

- Maybe it's the uncertainty. - That's right. Okay. What about the ETF data? If we look at it, from the peak in October 2025, which is the one that pushed the demand for Bitcoin from January 2004 to October 2025, the spike is high. Then from here to here, it's about to decrease

10-11 billion dollars. What do you think? How do you translate this data? Do you see this as people who buy it via ETF have lost interest in Bitcoin? - Yes, if you look at this data, if you lose interest in Bitcoin, then it will drop by 50%. Let's say bro, holding ETF. Which is not reflected in this data.

And in my personal opinion, the data from ETF is not actionable. There's no data that can be extracted from there. If I see it, it's purely from technical.

The psychological market is there. So you can't see, you can't mean anything if you see selling or people who, or in terms of the number of spot ETFs that are bought. No, it's not actionable. In my opinion, it's not actionable. But there is something that can be interpreted here that

Bitcoin goes down, which is not sold by ETF buyers. Because it's obvious, not up to 50%. It's not up to 20% only, it doesn't seem like it. - If we talk about the percentage of in-profit addresses, that this is the first, if we talk about ATH, it's always 99% of people in profit, also called ATH.

But if we talk about the low point, it's 53%, then 44%, this is the last concede, we are at 60% in profit. If you see this, do you translate something from here or do you also see it as nothing to consider from here? If this data is percent address in profit, in my opinion, it can still be used. It can still be used, in my opinion.

We can't give time. But this can give us insight that actually, the current position is that the price of Bitcoin is already okay. Maybe if you want to follow the previous cycle, you can wait for this price until there are more holders who are losing again. And in my opinion, there is a potential there. But even if not,

The stage is okay because I also hold Bitcoin. In the methodology that we have, now we call Bitcoin at stage 1. So an asset must reset the stage. There are stage 1, stage 2, stage 3, stage 4.

C1 is the base stage, the hidden accumulation. But the bottom of an asset or Bitcoin will not happen when retail is still euphoria. What I see now is that retail still has a little bit of euphoria. - Really? - I think if I look at the main source,

- Still, bro. - Oh, really? 50% already. The holder is like, "When? Please." - But Bitcoin was there when retail was bankrupt. - Now it's not bankrupt. - Angry, disappointed.

That's the bottom of Bitcoin. As we felt in 2022. We felt despair, disappointment, anger, and ashamed to talk about Bitcoin. There was no hope. At that time, smart money started to accumulate.

The next stage is stage 2, that's bull run. Then there's stage 3, capitulation. When capitulation or topping off, it's marked by many holders who are profitable. So this chart is still usable. - Then for you to see... - The fourth stage is the bear market.

Then for you to see earlier, when the price is going down, the smart money is buying again and buying with a sizable amount, where do you see that from? Who? For example, if the price of Bitcoin goes down, if the price of Bitcoin goes down, all people will give up. Now as people who give up, we have to see using data, what is this smart money doing?

Is it possible that the smart money will be left behind? Oh, it can't be bought at all. Therefore, if it can't be bought at all, if the price goes down, I also don't want to follow it. But if everyone is still desperate, after we have learned from history, we see it with data, oh, it turns out that the smart money is already accumulating again. It means that

it should follow what happened yesterday, so it can be a potential bottom and rebound. How do you make that decision? How do we see the data that this smart money is collecting or not? From the methodology we have, we have stage analysis. Now we are in stage 1B, where this is the period of Bitcoin's bottoming.

They know where the smart money will come from. Smart money will buy when they have a period of 2x. When the time is really bottom, hidden accumulation, maybe smart money that has a conviction or OG, then the next time is when the 30-week moving average.

So that's the key. Let's see from the technical side. I've made two key lines. I said magic lines. The magic line is in Bitcoin. Each asset has its own magic line. But for Bitcoin, 200-week moving average and 30-week moving average. When is the best purchase of Bitcoin in a cycle? It's basically below the 200-week moving average.

Those who bought below 200BMA in the previous cycle said, "Oh, I'm lucky." Now, in the current position, Bitcoin is still hovering at 200BMA. The currency is still down, it's still hesitating.

But when it's below 200 big moving average, that's the best time to buy. I can say that the generational world was created at that time. So like I said, billions made in bear market when the price of Bitcoin is below 200 big moving average. If we look back from 2022 to 2023,

200 week moving average is the yellow color. So it's the best buying time. There are two best buying times. The first is under 200 week moving average. The second is during 30 week moving average. If you look at the time when the price of Bitcoin reached 30 week moving average,

What happens next? It's a turn. Here too, when the price of Bitcoin passes the 30-week moving average, this green one, what happens? It's a turn. Because the 30-week moving average is considered a magic line in institutional. When they see the price of an asset passing and surviving above the 30-week moving average, there are many smart money that follow.

- Yes. - Many institutions are involved. That is an institutional signal. Because there are certain hedge funds, it is set in an algorithm, they can't buy assets below the moving average.

Do you have high conviction using these two data? Very high conviction, bro. This is a psychological mark that is formed over a very long period of time, bro. If you have such a high conviction, why do you have to be in the CA? Why don't you buy it when you hit the target?

pattern that you already have this high conviction. For example, don't wait until the 30 week moving average hits. Oh yes, when the 30 week moving average hits, we will reset our strategy. With our strategy that is more advanced. But for now, this is not the time to use leverage. Because there is still a final capitulation.

In my opinion, Bitcoin is a small possibility to go down in the 200-week moving average. This is a 200-week moving average, not below. Because the 200-week moving average is around Rp. 63,000. The price per day is Rp. 65,000. A small possibility for Bitcoin to go down in the 200-week moving average.

Even if it doesn't cover that possibility. But my mission, I have a mindset as a trend follower. So trend follower is we accept facts that we won't get top and bottom. We only buy and invest using leverage

when it's just a rush, when it hits the 30-week moving average at least. - Sometimes I have to... - Do you understand? Sometimes I have to switch my mindset because this person has a 100% conservative baseline. - Bitcoin. - Yes, 68% in Bitcoin. Because I haven't found an asset whose 200-week moving average is constantly rising in the long term. It's a block genesis.

While if you look at gold, the moving average is going up and down. - Yes, because for you, like US, it's outside your window because of the progressive debt, right? - Yes, for Indonesia. And also in the stock market, any stock market, whether it's Indonesia, America, Japan, altcoins, we have to be disciplined.

We need to be disciplined. Discipline is not just about cutting losses. Don't make any more mistakes. Cut losses and don't deny it. Because there will be no more sins. - If it's individual stocks. - Individual stocks. But SPY is supposed to be okay. SPY is okay. But I don't make any more mistakes.

the upside that I got was probably not much. We are betting on something in this life. I understand. I want to ask. If we look for something that is too safe, we won't go anywhere. We have one big bet, one conviction in our lifetime. I think everyone

have experienced that. Successful people have experienced that, bro. They have one big bed. That's it. They have one big bed. People here are making me crazy. You are also a property person. I was also in the property. And I have a mentor who is also a property person. So I have a mentor in the property.

He built a hut, about 10 units. He was fired because the hut that had been built didn't work. It didn't work, bro. It was in the wrong location. Then he found another location.

The location was really on the top of the mountain, bro. It was really low. If people see it, it's impossible. It's impossible to be a house. But at that time, with the rest of the capital, plus he called his brother, he said, "Do you want to share these two projects?" "I don't have money, but I have confidence that this can happen."

His brother said, "Okay, let's split 50-50. You run it, I'll model it." It turns out that in the house that was running down, it was an amazing success. And it was a big bet that made him able to go to the next project, to the next bigger project, to the next bigger project.

Everyone has stories that I think are very interesting because

the spectrum of what is it? the risk tolerance of a person is different from end to end I have to remind myself that beside me is a person who sees the return SPY is small because from the beginning if we consider over the past 10-20 years

16% if we talk about IDR, if we talk about Bitcoin, of course it is much younger than the historical return, it is much higher. If we talk about Bro Team, he targets 30% of the future IRR. - For Bitcoin? - For Bitcoin. That's why it's like that. But I want to ask about this, for those of you who are interested in SPY, but they turned off because

Okay.

Stock tokenized stocks. So we can buy SPY which is the crypto version. We can buy QQQ which is the crypto version. Even individual stocks like Nvidia, Microsoft, etc. are tokenized. In your opinion, how safe is it? For example, we talked about the backing of Ondo or something else. We see the name.

Especially those that appeared in Indonesian local exchanges. Is that something that

as safe as USDT, for example. Or there's a potential DPEC like LUNA, that's what people are afraid of. For example, people have... people are stingy with SPY. But in order for them to be safe on the interest, they buy tokenized SPY or tokenized QQQ, for example. But in the end, it turns out to be like LUNA, for example. It's zero, right? It's over. What do you think? In my opinion, the DPEC is not. Because this is not an algorithmic stablecoin, first. But what needs to be noted

tokenized stock is not for long-term investment. Meanwhile, the stories about people who succeed in SPX, they hold for tens of years, bro. They keep compounding. Which one... Why do you think tokenized stock is not for long-term hold?

Because we still don't know what the regulations are. The regulations are still unclear. I don't know, maybe I should ask someone who understands more about where the tax comes from. Is it considered a crypto asset? - It should be a crypto. - Or is it considered another asset? Like CFD and so on.

Also, from the regulatory side, we don't know yet. Maybe one day, the stock token will not be allowed. So, all those who have stock tokens will be liquidated. That means they will be converted into cash. And that has happened many times before. In global exchanges, it happens many times. When they issue stock tokens, there is a point where this exchange is not supporting anymore.

And they will be converted into cash. - Yes. Because it's still new, so we don't know if it's worth it or not to hold it for the long term. - But at least we have alternatives. - Yes. Especially if the short term is less risky. For example, there are friends who call the bottom of SPY.

- Someone asked, "Are there any concerns about BTC for now?" For example, MSTR has already discussed it. This person asked for quantum computing. - For now, not. Because if there is a quantum computer that is great, I think Bitcoin will be the most ready asset to deal with quantum computers. Meanwhile,

which is more worrying, bro. Maybe our assets in the bank, or maybe our personal data, KTP, etc. which without quantum computers is already a bubble. But from my personal point of view, I think quantum computers are still far away for cracking Bitcoin. What many people are worried about is

their mollets can be cracked, can be bobbled, without the private key. For the current quantum computer technology to bubble an address, it takes millions of years, bro. It still needs millions of years. So, quantum computers are not as sophisticated as that. But why is the news of quantum computers being released continuously, bro?

Because when it's released, there are those who want to accumulate it. - How do you prove that? - Prove what? That they spread fear like this so that others want to accumulate it. Yes, because in the financial market, it's all about psychology. So if I am a hedge fund or a smart money that wants to accumulate, I won't let other parties or retail companies that follow the accumulation.

But when I want to throw away the goods, I will make the news as fantastic as possible, as exciting as possible, as bullish as possible, so that it has exit liquidity. Do you understand? - Yes. In theory, it makes sense, right? But have you ever, is there a way for us to track it? Oh, it's true, like during these bad times, these people who are big fans want to accumulate. - No, I mean,

Food keeps coming out, but nothing is proven. - Nothing is proven. - Maybe it's hard. - Right. - Who ordered the news. - Right. - This is the last question about DCA. Is the strategy for BTC okay from now on? It's good that Bitcoin is in DCA. When will it start? So that we can get the bottom price. - In my opinion, now it's

the risk-to-risk and reward ratio is good in the CRC, in my opinion. But it needs to be considered. It needs to be considered for friends. Because the risk tolerance of each person is different. Do you have emergency funds? He doesn't have emergency funds. His emergency fund is Rp.1 billion.

I said it's safe. But I have a privilege, I have Bitcoin worth Rp16,000 and so on. People who ask that must be new. Maybe they don't have a portfolio at all, never experienced Bitcoin from cycle to cycle. And now there is a potential, who knows, we will go to recession. Who knows, we don't know. Who knows we will be in lay-off.

I mean, don't let us rush to the DCA now, but it turns out that our main job is in trouble. It turns out that we are in a layoff. And we have to sell Bitcoin at a lower price than we bought because we are forced to. Forced because of the layoff.

- Yes, I understand. - You understand, right? So I'll draw a line first because each person's risk tolerance is different. And usually, the Bitcoin bottom is always followed by a recession, lay-off, which makes people more desperate, more disappointed, something like that. That's a typical Bitcoin bottom. When we are still optimistic, that's not the bottom.

- I think. - Yeah, yeah. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -