Full Transcript

·YouTLDR

За это сейчас воюют Китай и США

37:11EnglishTranscribed Jul 21, 2026
0:03

In your pocket lies the control panel for the

0:05

most dangerous weapon

0:07

ever created by mankind. And

0:10

right now China, the US and Europe

0:12

are fighting over who will own it.

0:16

This war is not fought on the battlefield, but in

0:18

deep mines where metals and

0:21

minerals are mined, as well as in scientific laboratories

0:23

and the offices of the planet's leading IT corporations.

0:26

They put all their money into making sure that

0:27

this weapon belongs to

0:30

them [music]. While we're asking Iya

0:32

what the weather's like today, the government is

0:35

using neural networks to plan entire

0:37

military operations, like kidnapping

0:39

Nicolas Maduro or attacking Iran. And it’s

0:45

not for nothing that the richest man on the planet, Elon Musk, says the following things. I

0:48

think the danger from AI is much greater

0:51

than the danger from nuclear warheads. But

0:54

creating a neural network is not just like

0:55

coming up with a program for a smartphone. This

0:58

means controlling the largest

1:00

production chain in the history of the global

1:02

economy. I'll tell you how just a

1:04

few companies are holding the entire

1:07

AI industry hostage,

1:09

and which countries are already winning the

1:12

neural network war that has been going on since

1:15

2014. You will see which places on the planet

1:18

have become the hottest spots of this

1:21

war, while you, without suspecting anything,

1:24

ask the neurons your most intimate

1:27

questions. After watching this video, you'll

1:29

look at artificial intelligence differently

1:31

because you'll learn how we feed

1:34

the most dangerous monster on the planet

1:37

every day and can't stop.

1:39

My name is Nikolai Myachin, and this is Simple

1:41

Economics. Let's figure out how we will

1:43

destroy ourselves.

1:49

[music] On

1:53

February 28, 26, the United States and

1:56

Israel

1:59

killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ali

2:01

Khamenei in his Tehran residence with a single, precise missile strike. The

2:04

American neural network Claude

2:07

developed this operation in 90 minutes. Not hundreds of

2:10

analysts locked in for

2:11

months, but just a couple of the right

2:14

queries to artificial intelligence. How is

2:17

this possible magic? When you write in

2:19

GPT chat about how to get a mortgage at 5%, it doesn't

2:23

understand you as a person. It breaks down

2:25

the query into small parts and then

2:26

selects the most appropriate answer

2:28

based on the combination of words and context. That

2:31

is, the neural network does not think in the usual

2:33

sense, but calculates the most

2:34

appropriate answer. And the better it is

2:36

trained on huge amounts of data, the more

2:38

accurate this answer will be. But remember

2:41

how your child, younger brother or

2:43

nephew grew up. At first, all he could do was

2:45

lie in his crib and coo. But at

2:47

six months the baby learned to sit, at one year he

2:49

walked, at two he talked, and at 7:00

2:51

he went to first grade. [music] So do

2:52

neural networks. Every time you

2:54

ask her something and give her information about

2:57

yourself, you feed her new data. And

2:59

when enough is new, the

3:01

developers release a new model

3:03

that knows even more and gives even

3:06

more accurate answers. So, the neural network

3:08

turns from a baby into the wisest

3:11

advisor on the planet. The experience of a neural network

3:13

model is stored in its weights. It is such a

3:16

set of numerical parameters, well, like a

3:19

kind of DNA. And this DNA is the most

3:23

deadly weapon. If you think

3:25

I've gone crazy and joined the sect of

3:27

accusers of all mortal sins,

3:30

then look at what American officials are writing

3:32

. Direct access to model

3:35

scales will allow the neural network to be used

3:37

to create chemical or

3:39

biological weapons. And the risk for now is not

3:42

that the neural network will one day wake up and

3:45

destroy humanity, but that

3:47

the neural network might end up in the wrong

3:49

hands. Not long ago, on June 11,

3:51

2026, a model from the

3:53

Anthropopic company hacked

3:56

the servers of the

3:57

US National Security Agency in a matter of hours and gained access to

4:00

internal files. What had been built up over

4:02

the years as an impenetrable defense, the neronka

4:05

destroyed in a matter of hours. This is why

4:08

countries close their neural networks to

4:09

others. When Antropic

4:12

released its new popular

4:14

neural network, the Fable [music] 5, on June 9th, just

4:17

three days later the US government forced

4:19

the company to restrict access to it for

4:21

foreigners because the Fable

4:23

5 can even hack corporate

4:26

security systems. Anthroped had to

4:29

close the model and urgently make changes to it

4:31

to make it safe. There is already a shortage of

4:39

highly trained cybersecurity specialists who can identify

4:41

vulnerabilities in security systems and help

4:43

fix them.

4:46

Therefore, to gain practical skills for

4:48

work in this field, I recommend the

4:49

online master's program in information

4:51

security from Skill Factory and MIFI,

4:54

as their department of cryptology and

4:56

cybersecurity is among the

4:58

top three departments in Russia for training

4:59

specialists in computer

5:02

security.

5:04

You can apply all the knowledge you gain on

5:05

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5:07

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5:09

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5:11

Export Control. Here you will receive a

5:13

systematic foundation from the first weeks of

5:15

training. You will learn to speak the same

5:17

language as business. You will master the full

5:20

security cycle, from infrastructure code to

5:22

business processes. You will gain a unified

5:24

understanding of security, from cryptography and

5:27

operating system protection to legal

5:29

frameworks and security architecture.

5:31

Online Master's degree is a modern

5:33

format of education. It is in-person and provides

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5:37

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5:39

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entirely online. And there is also

5:44

government support. The cost of an

5:45

educational loan starts from 225 rubles. per

5:48

month for the first semester. Classes are taught

5:50

not only by MEPhI's best professors, but

5:53

also by Cybersecurity staff from Sber,

5:56

Kaspersky Lab, CryptoPro, and

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other companies for whom

6:00

information security is a

6:02

natural working environment.

6:04

Learning from scratch is the key to any

6:07

completed higher education. To

6:09

prepare for entrance examinations,

6:11

Skill Factory offers a free

6:12

preparatory course and

6:14

consultations. By submitting your application

6:16

now, you can gain access to

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additional events and materials from the

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OTFI even before the course begins. So,

6:23

to gain strong

6:24

practical skills in Cybersecurity,

6:26

follow the link in the description or

6:28

this code on the screen. Admission to the program is

6:30

now open, and places are limited,

6:32

so hurry.

6:37

And here's the most paradoxical thing: today, no

6:40

one will ban or destroy

6:42

artificial intelligence, because people have

6:44

already become accustomed to neural networks doing routine, and sometimes even the

6:46

main work, for them,

6:49

while businesses have begun to implement neural networks in

6:51

every nook and cranny to squeeze out maximum

6:52

profits, laying off thousands of now

6:55

useless workers. For example,

6:58

in Indian factories, workers

7:00

are wearing cameras so that artificial

7:02

intelligence can then train robots to do this work

7:05

, which will replace people. And in

7:07

New York today you will get paid to

7:09

clean your apartment. Everything to

7:11

record this process on camera and then

7:14

train cleaning robots.

7:16

But the state is not concerned about future

7:18

unemployment now, but rather about the fact that if you don’t want

7:21

to be destroyed, you need to create

7:23

your own models. Today, the United States is ahead of the entire

7:26

planet at the first level and chain

7:29

. They created the most

7:31

popular neurocities in the world: Cha GPT,

7:33

Demminay, Claude and, of course, Grock.

7:36

Each of these models is tailored to its own

7:39

specific task. This is how open AI is trying to

7:42

turn GPT chat into a universal

7:44

assistant for all occasions. Google

7:46

is also turning Jemin into an assistant

7:48

that integrates into all of its services. And

7:50

given that Google is used by nine

7:51

out of ten internet users,

7:53

the company has billions of customers

7:56

who make Google smarter every day

7:58

. Grok is spying on the live

8:00

feed of a social network banned in Russia

8:02

. So, AI knows what's

8:04

being discussed right now, but it's the perfect

8:06

tool for finding and analyzing the

8:08

latest information and the future foundation

8:10

for the most sophisticated propaganda. You might

8:12

think that the creation centers are the

8:14

IT company headquarters in

8:16

San Francisco and London, but this is not the case.

8:19

Behind this first level,

8:21

where developers sit and write code,

8:24

there is a real iceberg of

8:26

bottlenecks in which the

8:29

entire global industry is crowded. It is precisely on these very

8:32

bottlenecks that the outcome of the

8:34

geopolitical pursuit to create

8:36

humanity's most dangerous weapon,

8:39

which is happening right now before our

8:42

eyes, depends. To understand economics, you

8:44

only need to start with one book.

8:46

More than 10,000 copies sold.

8:48

Average rating 4.9. Book Simple

8:50

Economics. Search on marketplaces or by the

8:53

link [music] in the description.

9:00

When you message GPT chat about how to get

9:03

a mortgage at 5%, the signal from your

9:05

smartphone or laptop enters the

9:07

internet and travels through fiber-optic

9:09

cables to the load balancer. This is a

9:12

control room that evaluates

9:14

server availability, load,

9:16

latency, user region, and

9:18

hundreds of other parameters so you get a

9:20

response in 5 seconds, not a minute.

9:22

And after selecting a server, the balancer

9:24

sends your request there. And then

9:26

the magic, or rather the physics of computing,

9:28

happens in the humming data centers

9:30

scattered around the world. Here's what

9:32

Google's Alabama data center looks like,

9:34

where

9:36

power disappears like a black

9:38

hole. In general, all the data centers that

9:39

exist on the planet today

9:41

consume more electricity in a year than, for

9:43

example, the whole of France. Electricity

9:45

powers the heart of artificial intelligence.

9:48

Millions of graphics

9:50

processors like these. It is the processor, or rather

9:52

its brain, a miniature chip, that does all the

9:54

work. It selects the

9:56

most appropriate answers to your requests to

9:58

tell you how to get a cheap

10:00

mortgage. Several processors

10:01

are combined into one cluster to later

10:03

create an entire supercomputer in this

10:06

data center. Why is this necessary? Ah, well,

10:08

imagine that your question to the GPT chat

10:11

is a sack of potatoes. You can take a knife

10:14

and start peeling potatoes one by one, but

10:16

if GPUs worked like

10:19

that, then the answer to a simple morning

10:21

question: what should I wear today? You would

10:24

receive it already in the evening before going to bed. So the

10:26

GPU divides a sack of

10:28

potatoes between hundreds of assistants

10:30

who peel them simultaneously, and you

10:32

get the answer in 5 seconds. While

10:35

GPUs are ideal

10:38

for running artificial intelligence,

10:39

they were originally designed for

10:41

video game graphics. Yes, it's all because of

10:44

those who already pre-ordered GTA 6 and took a

10:46

vacation until the end of November 2026

10:48

. It is because of them that we will be destroyed by

10:51

artificial intelligence. To avoid

10:53

growing and become smarter, they

10:55

need more new data centers. But it

10:59

won’t be possible to build up the entire land with these hangars. And here we

11:00

encounter the first bottleneck

11:02

. Firstly, electricity is not

11:04

infinite. Before building a new

11:06

data center, a power source must be found somewhere

11:08

, otherwise the power will go out in millions of apartments

11:10

nearby. And secondly,

11:13

there's no point in building a data center if you

11:15

can't buy as many chips as

11:18

you need. Well, imagine this: one

11:20

of the most in-demand

11:22

technologies today is in terrible

11:23

shortage, and chip manufacturers would be happy

11:26

to make more of them, but they themselves are running

11:29

into a shortage of components. A chip is a

11:32

silicon crystal containing thousands of

11:35

computing cores, which is the brain of

11:37

artificial intelligence. The chips are

11:39

so small that they are literally

11:41

drawn layer by layer onto the surface of

11:44

silicon wafers. This process

11:46

is called photolithography.

11:49

The plate is first polished to a mirror

11:51

finish and then coated with a special

11:53

light-sensitive material. After

11:55

this, a template with a drawing of the

11:57

future chip is placed and sent to a special

11:59

EUV lithograph. Inside this machine,

12:02

tiny drops of molten

12:05

tin fly. Powerful lasers hit them and the tin

12:08

turns into plasma. Plasma emits

12:10

extreme ultraviolet light.

12:12

This light is then collected by a system of

12:14

mirrors, directed through a special

12:16

template, and transfers

12:19

the outlines of the future chip elements onto a silicon wafer. This

12:21

process is repeated many times

12:23

because the chip is not a single pattern. It is a

12:25

multi-story microscopic city where

12:29

transistors are formed on the lower level. These are miniature

12:31

electric current switches. Above

12:33

them are insulating layers, metal

12:36

tracks, and so on. And each layer

12:38

must fit perfectly on the previous one.

12:40

If the pattern shifts even a nanometer,

12:43

everything will go to waste. And only one company in the world can produce such complex

12:45

equipment, the size of a school

12:47

bus weighing 180 grams, where

12:51

miniature chips are printed with microscopic

12:53

precision.

12:58

It seems that this is where this whole

13:00

iceberg and industry begins. [music]

13:02

But no, its roots go kilometers

13:05

underground to where quartz is mined.

13:08

In general, quartz is the second most

13:10

common metal on the planet.

13:12

But usually it contains a lot of impurities:

13:14

iron, aluminum, potassium. But for the

13:16

lithograph to work its magic, the

13:19

flint plate, which

13:20

is made from quartz, must be

13:22

crystal clear. The impurity content must

13:25

exceed 10 parts per million. In

13:27

percentage terms, this number looks like this: 99% pure

13:30

quartz is 999.

13:33

And there is only one place on the entire planet

13:35

where

13:37

such pure quartz can be mined on an industrial scale.

13:39

Sprucepine.

13:41

380 million years ago,

13:43

two lithospheric plates,

13:46

Africa and North America, collided in this area. The rock

13:49

became extremely hot after the accident, and since it

13:52

happened at a great depth, water

13:54

could not penetrate there and bring with it

13:55

various congestion. Eventually, the quartz

13:58

solidified into crystal clear material, making it

14:00

possible to produce chips for our

14:02

smartphones and computers. [music]

14:04

So it turns out that the modern chip

14:06

is a miniature microcircuit

14:08

that has taken literally the entire

14:10

global economy hostage. Without this

14:13

fingernail-sized component, a car wouldn't move or an

14:15

airplane fly, and there's simply no replacement for this entire

14:18

chain, as it's the

14:20

most efficient technology for

14:22

processing big data today. But that's

14:25

not all. The second key element, without

14:27

which the neural network will not work,

14:29

is ultra-fast memory, soldered right

14:32

next to the crystal. It enables

14:34

thousands of cores to operate smoothly, without

14:36

allowing them to sit idle. This is why Ii

14:38

can answer your questions so quickly

14:40

. And until it became such a big part of

14:42

our lives, chip and memory manufacturers

14:45

remained in the shadows. But as soon as

14:46

neural networks took off, everyone suddenly

14:48

needed both chips and ultra-fast

14:50

memory. And it is clear that it is

14:52

simply physically impossible to increase production in the shortest possible time

14:54

. To do this, we need to find

14:56

money, build new factories, hire and

14:58

train hundreds, if not thousands, of people.

15:01

This is how the whole industry looks in cross-section

15:04

. At the first level are the

15:06

developers of neural networks, Open AI, Google,

15:09

or Hiring a team of programmers and

15:12

writing code is perhaps the

15:14

easiest task in this entire chain,

15:16

which is why it is the biggest nesting doll. The

15:19

second level is data centers and a

15:21

smaller matryoshka doll. The most prominent

15:23

representative of this level is the

15:25

world's most valuable company, Nvidia, which

15:28

sells chips and other equipment for

15:30

data centers and earns

15:32

$200 billion a year from this. Of course, other

15:35

hardware manufacturers want to push

15:38

NVIDIA out of such a rich market. AMD,

15:40

Brotko, and even Google have joined the

15:42

race. And note that all of these companies are

15:44

entirely American. Therefore, the US has

15:47

every opportunity to tie their hands and

15:49

prohibit them from working with the wrong

15:51

countries. On January 15,

15:53

2025, the US Department of Commerce imposed

15:55

restrictions on the export of the most

15:57

advanced neural network chips from the country. All

15:59

other states were divided into three

16:01

groups. US allies such as Japan,

16:03

South Korea and the UK receive

16:05

advanced equipment without restrictions.

16:07

Around 120 countries, including Singapore, Israel, and the UAE,

16:10

can only rely on the supply of

16:12

previous-generation chips to

16:14

stay one step behind. But

16:16

Russia, China and Iran have no chance at all

16:19

here. Limit the key

16:21

component of future weapons creation, and

16:23

your opponents will be toothless.

16:26

China responded by developing its own

16:28

chips. And even after

16:30

Donald Trump visited

16:32

China on May 15, 2020 and allowed the Chinese to buy

16:35

previous-generation chips from the US, he did not

16:37

order a single such chip from the

16:39

Americans. Why? Because if

16:42

your country gets hooked on equipment

16:44

produced by your rival, it will

16:46

gain a powerful trump card in resolving any

16:48

disputes. So for China,

16:50

import substitution of American chips

16:53

is a matter of principle and sovereignty.

16:56

In general, there is nothing wrong with national chips or even

16:57

messengers. The

17:00

only question is how to use them.

17:02

For example, deliberately slowing down or

17:04

blocking competitors, but this is clearly not

17:06

ok. I explained what Max can expect with this approach

17:09

in my

17:10

Telegram channel, Simple Economy.

17:11

Read this post by following the link in the description

17:13

or by clicking on the code on the screen. There are already

17:16

more than 280,000 of us, and

17:19

we really understand what is

17:21

happening in Russia and the world and what we should

17:23

do about it. So, if you also

17:25

want to understand, then you are welcome.

17:27

Nvidia's products

17:29

have been replaced in the Chinese market by Huawei, which

17:31

has been on the US blacklist since

17:33

May 16, 2019. While

17:36

Nvidia's share of chips in China was

17:38

40% in 2025, it will drop to

17:41

8% in 2026, while Huawei's share of its own chips

17:43

will exceed 50%. At the same time,

17:45

Huawei's chips are still inferior to

17:48

Nvidia's most advanced developments, but they are superior to

17:50

their previous models, which Trump

17:52

kindly allowed to be purchased. Well, that's

17:54

not necessary anymore. Thank you. So, we

17:56

can safely add

17:58

another second-level flag to this map for

18:01

Huawei, a company from the Chinese city of Shenzhen.

18:03

It turns out that any sanctions are a

18:05

double-edged sword. On the one

18:07

hand, you limit your

18:08

opponent and get ahead while he is

18:10

dragging himself around somewhere. On the other hand,

18:13

there is always the risk that he will do something of

18:14

his own, yes, better, and not just

18:16

catch up with you, but overtake you, and you will

18:19

not be able to do anything about it. The leverage will be

18:21

lost, and in addition, your own

18:23

producer will become weaker, having lost

18:25

such a fat market. Incidentally, this is what

18:27

Nvidia's CEO himself says, and he's

18:29

certainly not thrilled about the

18:31

restrictions that are preventing him from

18:33

earning billions. In short, this is the

18:36

kind of struggle that is taking place at the second level and

18:39

chain, where the US is also in the lead, but

18:43

China is already hot on its heels. But

18:45

only the world's most valuable company,

18:48

Nvidia, doesn't manufacture processors and

18:50

chips from scratch. She assembles them from

18:53

ready-made components that are manufactured for her by

18:55

others. So now

18:57

NVIDIA is stuck in a traffic jam, waiting for deliveries of

18:59

chips and high-speed memory. Two

19:02

leading manufacturers of precisely this type of

19:04

memory, necessary for chips,

19:06

are located in one country in the world, South

19:08

Korea. These are SK H K Heinex with a share of 61% and

19:12

Samsung 17%. Between them is the American

19:15

Mikron with a share of 21%, meaning that the total for the

19:19

three of them is almost 100%. In the list of the most valuable

19:22

companies in the world, these three occupy

19:23

twelfth, thirteenth and fourteenth

19:25

places, respectively. Moreover, while

19:27

Samsung produces not only memory, but

19:29

also much more, such as smartphones and televisions,

19:31

SK HX is focused solely on

19:34

producing this ultra-fast memory.

19:37

Paradoxically, 20 years ago this

19:39

company almost went bankrupt

19:42

because this memory was not in demand at the time

19:44

. Well, today the same

19:46

product has made it the most valuable company in

19:49

South Korea. even allowed it to overtake

19:50

Samsung, which had been the leader for a quarter of a

19:53

century. All three say that

19:56

RAM supplies for this year,

19:58

2026, are already fully

20:00

booked, and the shortage is unlikely to disappear

20:02

even in 2027, although the

20:04

companies are actively building new factories.

20:07

Incidentally, it's not

20:08

just Nvidia that's lining up for memory, but also China's Huawei,

20:11

which could more quickly replace the

20:12

Americans in its market. But it

20:16

lacks components for chip production. But while two

20:18

South Korean companies share 100% of the market,

20:21

just one Taiwanese company has captured

20:23

90% of the

20:25

advanced chip market. This is TSMC. Well, here it is

20:28

in seventh place among the most expensive

20:31

companies on the planet. It turns out that the third

20:33

level and chains are controlled by

20:35

key suppliers of components for

20:37

the creation of graphics processors

20:39

that literally fit on one

20:41

hand. The first is Taiwan's TSMC, and the second,

20:44

third and fourth are SK, Kinix,

20:46

Micron and Samsung. These companies literally

20:49

hold up the entire global economy. Without their

20:52

chips and high-speed memory, the

20:54

production of smartphones, computers,

20:57

cars, bank cards,

20:59

telecommunications equipment, and,

21:01

of course, those very same data centers for

21:03

artificial intelligence would collapse. But if

21:07

this third matryoshka is just a few

21:09

companies, then this fourth one is just

21:11

one company, ASML,

21:16

from the Netherlands, where they manufacture those

21:18

very lithographs for printing chips. Yes,

21:21

lithographs are not only made in

21:22

the Netherlands. For example, the Japanese Nikon

21:24

produces DUV lithographs. This is the previous

21:27

generation of such machines. The difference between DUV

21:30

and EUV is the wavelength of ultraviolet light

21:33

they work with. And in Ivy it is 14

21:36

times shorter and is only 13.5 nm.

21:40

This is 6,000 times thinner than a human

21:43

hair. The shorter the ultraviolet wavelength,

21:45

the more accurately the chip can be drawn. Let's

21:48

take two pencils. One is sharply

21:51

sharpened, and the other has a thick rod.

21:54

And you will immediately notice the difference here. The same is true

21:57

for lithographers. The more accurate the drawing,

21:59

the more compactly

22:01

the transistors can be packed and a greater number of them can be placed

22:03

. This means the chip will become more powerful. And so far,

22:06

only the Dutch have been able to create such a

22:08

thin pencil, such a complex

22:10

machine that can draw chips with

22:13

precision down to the nanometer. In

22:15

2026, the company plans to

22:17

make and sell 60 machines, and in

22:20

2027, a whopping 80. Such a device

22:23

consists of, well, about 100,000

22:25

parts, many of which, yes, ASML

22:28

also orders from others. Well, for example, the

22:32

Carlisle company makes mirrors for reflecting ultraviolet radiation. And they have their own

22:35

suppliers. So this chain goes on and on

22:38

. However, the problem is not only

22:40

finding money and waiting in

22:41

line for an EUV lithograph. The supply of

22:44

such equipment requires an export

22:46

license from the Dutch government,

22:49

which is friendly with Washington. And you can

22:51

probably already guess that the States

22:53

have gotten busy here too. ASML

22:56

does not sell lithographs to China, so the

22:59

Celestial Empire is not yet capable of creating the most advanced chips

23:01

. Well, because there is nothing to

23:04

use. At the same time, the company's director, like

23:06

his colleague from Nvidia, is

23:08

not at all thrilled with these geopolitical games

23:11

and warns: "It

23:13

will all end the same way as with chips. China

23:15

will develop its own machines and not

23:17

only stop depending on their

23:19

lithographs, but will also begin to

23:21

seriously compete with them. But until

23:23

this happens, the fourth level and

23:26

the chains are again in the hands of the States, because the

23:28

Dutch government is dancing to their

23:29

dota. So, are the fifth and fourth

23:32

levels really going to the Americans? But

23:33

China has something to respond with here. Even the most

23:35

complex ASML lithograph can't create a chip out of thin

23:38

air. It needs materials like silicon,

23:40

gallium, germanium. All these

23:42

rare earth metals and dozens of other

23:44

components are needed, because without them,

23:46

modern electronics simply wouldn't

23:48

exist. And 70% of this market is

23:51

controlled by China, which,

23:53

in response to bans, deprives its

23:55

opponents of access to such valuable

23:57

raw materials. Because of which the States

23:59

Rare earth metals are being sought all over the world, from

24:01

Ukraine to Greenland. True, the United States

24:03

has a trump card in North

24:05

Carolina, in the town of Sprucepine, where

24:08

70% of the world's ultra-pure quartz is mined.

24:12

Such pure quartz is

24:14

truly a trump card in the hands of the United States. And

24:15

therefore, China is forced to purchase 95% of the

24:19

quartz it consumes, of course, from the

24:21

Americans from Sprucepine. But in April

24:24

26, Chinese scientists

24:27

discovered a large quartz deposit

24:29

in Tibet, which can be purified to

24:31

99.9%.

24:33

And so, having its own source of ultra-pure

24:35

quartz could free China's hands. But

24:38

extracting ultra-pure quartz is only

24:40

half the battle. Then it needs to be

24:42

made into a flint wafer. And 70% of the

24:45

global market for flint wafers for

24:47

IC chips is currently controlled by

24:49

a single Japanese company, Etsu Chemical

24:52

. This is another

24:54

bottleneck for the third Matryoshka doll. However, at the

24:57

fifth level of the raw materials chain,

25:00

both China and the United States hold strong positions.

25:02

Although the Americans, thanks to The crash of the

25:04

spheric plates 380 million years ago is

25:06

still in a more advantageous position. Does

25:09

this mean that since the United States somehow

25:11

controls every level of this

25:14

chain, the entire artificial

25:16

intelligence industry is under its complete

25:18

control? But China

25:20

disagrees and is preparing to

25:23

take over the most important point in the world

25:26

. But what kind of point is this, if the

25:29

industry has so many bottlenecks

25:32

at every stage? I'll tell you now.

25:42

Here is a map where all the points of

25:43

control over artificial intelligence are marked.

25:45

On US territory there are three flags:

25:47

first, second, and fifth level. These are

25:49

the offices of leading developers and applications

25:52

from Silicon Valley, the headquarters of the

25:54

main supplier of the entire industry

25:56

Nvidia, and the Srupai quartz mine.

25:59

At the other end of the map, on the Chinese

26:01

side, there are two flags. This is Huawei.

26:03

Well, your own Nvidia at home. And control

26:06

over raw materials, rare earth metals.

26:09

When the bird came out, the American stock

26:11

market lost a whole

26:13

trillion dollars in just one day, because no one

26:15

could have imagined that China If Deepsk develops its

26:18

model so cheaply and so quickly,

26:21

it will create competition for American

26:23

companies. However, Deepsk has only become popular

26:26

in China and Russia, while the global

26:28

market is still dominated by Cha GPT and

26:31

Gemin. That's why it has

26:34

n't yet received its own flag. Although, of course, the basic

26:36

minimum for creating a national

26:39

neural network in China has been fulfilled.

26:41

It seems that the remaining flags are scattered

26:43

all over the map. The Netherlands controls the

26:45

supply of chip production machines.

26:47

South Korea - memory production.

26:49

Taiwan - chip production. Japan -

26:51

silicon wafer manufacturing.

26:53

But all these countries are allies of the

26:55

Americans, who not only

26:56

supply the United States with everything they need, but also

26:58

impose export bans on their products

27:00

to China and friendly countries.

27:03

Of course, allies are good, but it's even

27:05

more reliable when the entire chain is on one

27:08

's own territory. Therefore, America

27:10

agreed with Taiwan's TSMC to

27:12

build US factories. And already in

27:14

October 25, the

27:15

first advanced chip was produced there. In total,

27:18

three factories will be built by 2030. However, even they are

27:20

not will cover all the needs of American

27:23

companies, so this is not a replacement, but only an

27:25

additional source for Americans to obtain the

27:27

necessary components for the industry

27:30

. [music]

27:31

Since 2020, the United States has invested

27:33

more than $645 billion in development and supply chains within the country

27:35

. These are dozens of projects

27:38

from raw material extraction and production

27:40

to research

27:42

laboratories. And today, the

27:43

Americans are far

27:46

ahead of everyone else in the world, investing a

27:48

quarter of a trillion

27:50

dollars a year in the industry. Does this mean that the United States

27:52

has won the war to create the weapons of

27:54

the future? No, the Chinese

27:56

disagree. We already know about Deep Purple and Huawei, the first

27:59

and second levels. By

28:01

2030, China plans

28:03

to import-substitute 80% of all components

28:06

needed for chip production.

28:08

Well, for example, already now 40% of domestic

28:11

demand for silicon wafers, the foundation of

28:13

any chip, is covered by its own National

28:16

Silicon Industry Group from Shanghai.

28:18

So the third matryoshka is still missing, but

28:21

the Chinese are moving towards having it

28:23

. But replacing The fourth link, the

28:26

Dutch lithographers, will be very

28:27

difficult. Right now, Chinese companies

28:30

from the EI industry are urging Xizenping

28:32

to create their own ASML. But will it work?

28:36

That's a really big question.

28:38

Without advanced chip production machines,

28:40

the Chinese are forced to make do.

28:42

They're using old lithographs and

28:45

inventing shortcuts. Well, like creating a

28:47

different architecture for the chip itself, which

28:49

allows for increased

28:50

productivity. But it's like

28:52

building a house not from modern

28:54

bricks, but from ordinary stones, but

28:56

fitting them together so that the walls

28:58

become just as strong. Well,

29:00

admittedly, it costs a lot more. The fifth

29:02

matryoshka doll only partially belongs to China

29:05

. Yes, rare earth metals

29:07

are the strength of the Celestial Empire, but quartz

29:09

has to be ordered from the Americans.

29:11

Only the launch of their own mines in Tibet and

29:14

other regions of the country will finally

29:16

free them from this dependence. And

29:18

the Europeans,

29:21

who don't want to be dependent on either the

29:24

US or China, also dream of their own chain. Europe's main strength

29:27

is, of course, the Dutch. ASML.

29:29

The fourth matryoshka isn't just in their

29:31

hands; the rest of the world is dancing with it.

29:33

The fifth matryoshka—quartz—may one day

29:36

stand alongside the fourth. In Norway,

29:38

geologists have discovered a deposit of

29:39

ultra-pure quartz. Well, it still needs to

29:41

be mined and processed. Processing,

29:43

however, won't be a problem.

29:45

The Quartz Corp. operates in Norway

29:47

, where

29:50

quartz from the American company Spruce is also processed. But the

29:52

rest of the chain is much more

29:54

complicated. Europe doesn't have its own TSMC, which manufactures

29:57

chips for [them]. It doesn't have its own Nvidia

30:00

or Huawei either. The closest equivalent of these

30:02

companies in Europe, Axelera AI, appeared in

30:05

the Netherlands only in 2021

30:06

and doesn't yet have the experience or

30:08

technology to seriously compete with the

30:10

Americans and Chinese. It turns out

30:13

that the second and third matryoshkas are out of the question, just like

30:18

the first. Currently, the most famous

30:20

neural network from Europe is the

30:22

French company Mrl AI,

30:24

which was founded in 2023.

30:26

Google alumni. Cha is the European

30:28

equivalent of GPT chat. However, even in

30:31

France itself, it accounts for less than 1% of

30:34

internet traffic. Let alone

30:36

other countries. So far, all we hear from Europe are

30:39

loud slogans about

30:41

becoming world leaders in artificial

30:43

intelligence. But how

30:44

this can be achieved is still

30:46

unclear. But the US has an answer.

30:49

Money. And right now, greenbacks are

30:51

taking over the entire AI industry

30:53

, depriving US allies of their

30:56

silicon shield. I've heard the expression "

30:59

silicon shield" or "chip shield"

31:04

when talking about your company.

31:06

Perhaps because our company

31:08

supplies a lot of chips to the world.

31:14

Maybe someone will refrain from attacking.

31:18

For Taiwan, TSMC is not just a source

31:21

of pride, but a company that

31:23

supports the island's de facto independence

31:26

. In case you didn't know, in 1949, the

31:30

Chinese government, which

31:31

had lost the civil war to the communists, fled to Taiwan.

31:34

Realizing that such a large neighbor next

31:36

door represents Faced with an existential

31:37

threat, it began to think: "How can we become

31:40

so indispensable to the entire world that we can

31:42

maintain our independence?" The choice fell

31:45

on technology. The government decided

31:47

that they didn't have enough people to become the world's factory

31:49

. Therefore, in 1973, the

31:55

Industrial Technology Research

31:58

Institute (ITRI) was established under the Ministry of Economic Affairs of Taiwan. Its mission was to

32:00

take promising technologies and

32:02

turn them into a source of income and

32:04

influence for the entire country. In

32:07

1976, ITRI

32:09

acquired a license for

32:11

microchip production technology from the Americans for $10 million. 19 of the

32:13

best engineers went to the States

32:15

to study this process firsthand. And a

32:17

year later, the first

32:19

microchip production line was launched in Taiwan. But then it

32:21

turned out that while the defect rate in America

32:24

is 50%, Taiwanese

32:27

engineers managed to reduce it to

32:29

30%. In 1985, Morris Chunk became the head of ITI

32:32

. He was born in China and

32:35

came to the United States at the age of 18, where he received an excellent

32:38

technical education at the Massachusetts

32:40

Institute of Technology. Well, and then

32:42

spent 25 years working at Texas

32:45

Instruments, a

32:46

chip manufacturer. Morris Chunk

32:49

rose through the ranks to become the

32:51

company's second-in-command, senior

32:53

vice president, because under his

32:55

leadership, the company began to

32:57

profit well from chip shipments. It was precisely this kind of

33:00

person, someone who could turn

33:02

technology into money, that was needed in

33:04

Taiwan. Chunk

33:07

was personally invited to the post of director of the institute by the

33:09

Prime Minister.

33:10

And just two years later, in 1987, Chunk

33:14

founded the very same Taiwu Semiconductor

33:17

Manufacturing Company (TSMC). Morris Chunk

33:20

proposed a simple but revolutionary

33:21

idea: to create a company that doesn't

33:24

design its own chips and doesn't

33:26

compete with customers, but only

33:27

manufactures them based on someone else's design. And while

33:30

other companies were distracted by

33:31

design, architecture, and marketing, TSMC

33:34

was able to focus on one thing: becoming the

33:36

best foundry for everyone. That's why

33:39

NVIDIA, Apple, AMD, and other

33:40

tech giants

33:42

began working with TSMC without any fear. They knew

33:45

that this foundry wouldn't steal their developments or

33:47

become a competitor. And TSMC

33:50

Meanwhile, TSMC has been perfecting its

33:52

chip production technologies for decades. And

33:54

this experience, technology, and team of

33:57

engineers cannot be copied. TSMC

33:59

has become a veritable flint shield for

34:02

Taiwan, protecting the island as well as

34:04

American missiles and guns.

34:07

However, when TSMC announced

34:09

the construction of factories on American

34:10

soil, politicians on the island

34:13

panicked that their shield had cracked.

34:16

This frightens them even more than a

34:19

Chinese attack. If a war starts, the company

34:21

will be destroyed. Everything will be destroyed.

34:23

If China takes Taiwan, it won't

34:25

get everything ready-made.

34:28

Supply chains will be disrupted, engineers will emigrate to the States,

34:30

the experience and technology accumulated over

34:32

decades will disappear. And

34:34

TSMC factories will be useless under the control of the right

34:36

party. But the blow to

34:39

China's economy without Taiwanese chips will be

34:41

terrible. China will lose 17% of its GDP,

34:44

and the rest of the world 10%. Hundreds of companies

34:47

will go bankrupt because they won't be able to

34:48

manufacture their products without chips, and

34:50

thousands of workers will end up on the street. Isn't that

34:53

so? Does anyone need this? That's a completely different

34:55

matter. If the shield simply goes to the US, then

34:57

Taiwan will be left without cover. And the

34:59

global economy won't collapse. The chips

35:02

will be churned out in American

35:03

factories. Then no one will stop

35:05

China from taking the island into its

35:08

own hands. That's how powerful

35:10

technology is today. But even the most exceptional raw materials

35:13

won't give you that kind of power.

35:16

Even a super-pure quartz deposit with

35:18

pruspine in the American outback can

35:20

be replaced somewhere in northern

35:22

Norway or mountainous Tibet. And in a

35:24

worst-case scenario, such a deposit can be

35:27

captured. No special skills are required

35:29

to dig the mineral out of the ground

35:32

. That's the real strength of

35:35

TSMC, ASML, Skyx and other [music]

35:38

bottlenecks and industries. These

35:41

companies can't be copied or

35:42

captured. They can only be offered

35:44

the fattest piece of the pie and bought out.

35:47

That's why the war of the future will not be a

35:49

war of motors or even drones, but a war

35:52

of economies, money and promises, where the winner will be

35:54

Not the strongest, but the

35:56

richest and smartest, and the world's most powerful weapon will fall into his hands

35:59

. It seems that the

36:04

US has taken the lead in the AI ​​race today. Not only have they

36:05

amassed the most important

36:07

industry players, but they're also investing enormous amounts of

36:09

money to acquire the rest.

36:11

China is still lagging behind, but it's entirely possible

36:13

that the Celestial Empire is simply not showing all

36:15

its cards. That's what happened with Deepsik, who

36:17

suddenly jumped out and said, "Boo!" "

36:20

Scared of the entire American industry."

36:22

[music] The weapons in our smartphones

36:24

are real, but while the two superpowers

36:27

are figuring out who's stronger, it seems like you and I have

36:29

nothing to fear. But as soon as

36:32

one of them gains a decisive upper hand,

36:33

the world will split into those who have

36:35

access to the cutting edge, and those who will

36:38

slide into a dependent Stone

36:40

Age without it. [music] We have a hand in determining who will win

36:43

every day, choosing

36:45

which neural network to send our request to

36:47

today: the GPT chat or Deep PSK.

36:50

So even one person here becomes a

36:52

cog in this all-powerful mechanism.

36:55

If you're afraid to miss out when

36:57

the winner of this war is clearly

36:58

determined, subscribe to this

37:01

channel, to my Telegram channel, Simple

37:02

Economy. There I explain what's

37:04

really happening in Russia and the world. This

37:06

was Nikolai Myachin with you. Bye.

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