Will Argentina Invade the Falklands? And Can Britain Stop Them?

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>> If you are not British or Argentinian,

you probably can't understand the deep

passions surrounding the subject of the

Falkland Islands. Passions that arose

during the recent World Cup match

between Argentina and England.

Things have never been the same since

the two countries went to war in 1982

following Argentina's sudden invasion of

the British overseas territory plus the

associated territory of South Georgia,

which had been barely garrisoned for

decades. And it has emerged that the

Argentine junta, the military

dictatorship of the time, ordered the

invasions due to its popularity being in

freefall. What better way than a foreign

adventure to unify a people behind its

own government?

But Buenos Aires underestimated the will

of Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher to

respond militarily. And she also saw an

opportunity to galvanize the British

public behind her also unpopular

government by decisive action and the

restoration of British national honor.

The British task force was impressive

and the Falklands War demonstrated that

Britain in 1982 was still able to act

unilaterally against its enemies,

something which we can't really do

anymore.

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The campaign was difficult operating

8,000 mi from the UK.

And the losses, in terms of men and

equipment, were serious as the

Argentines, in particular their air

force and naval aviation, fought very

bravely and managed to sink several

Royal Navy warships and damage many

others.

The land campaign was also very

difficult in adverse weather conditions

against a well-entrenched opponent.

But the superior esprit de corps and

training of British troops shone through

in a series of mountain engagements to

recapture Port Stanley, the island's

capital.

Argentina surrendering on the 14th of

June, 1982, 74 days after the initial

Argentine assault.

Since then, we keep asking one question.

Will Argentina try to take the Falklands

again?

Successive Argentine presidents have

certainly continued to press their

nation's claim to the islands. And

successive British Prime Ministers have

stated that any attack would be met

again by force.

But the real questions are, is Argentina

even capable of invading the Falklands?

And is Britain even capable of getting

them back?

In order for Argentina to successfully

invade the Falklands today, it needs

three things. Local air superiority over

the islands.

Local naval superiority around the

islands.

And the means to transport and

successfully land an invasion force.

In 1982, the first condition was

irrelevant. The Falklands had no

military aircraft based on them, so no

attacks could be made on the approaching

Argentine naval armada.

Today, that is not the case.

RAF Mount Pleasant, built after the war,

35 mi southwest of Port Stanley, has a

permanent flight of four Eurofighter

Typhoons.

And these very capable aircraft would be

used against any invasion force to

control the airspace over the islands,

and also to attack Argentine ships as

they approach the area.

In 1982, Argentina had a huge number of

jet fighters and bombers that were later

used to attempt to interdict the British

landings to recapture the islands.

The Argentine Air Force, flying from

bases 400 mi away on the mainland, uh

possessed about 45 Skyhawks,

30 to 35 Israeli IAI Daggers,

up to 20 Mirage IIIs,

and up to 10 English Electric Canberra

bombers.

This is not the case today. The

Argentine Air Force's only modern jet

able to reach the Falklands to combat

the RAF for air superiority are six F-16

multirole fighters bought second-hand

from Denmark. A further 12 are now on

order.

The problems for the Argentine F-16s are

numerous.

Firstly, British ground-based radars on

the Falkland Islands can see further

than the F-16s integral radar system.

So, the British would see these

Argentine planes first, giving them time

to launch a response.

The British airbase is protected by a

battery of extremely modern and capable

Sky Sabre surface-to-air missiles

operated by the Royal Artillery.

And lastly, the four RAF Typhoons would

dominate the much older generation

F-16s, and it is very doubtful that

Argentina would win local air

superiority.

Could the Argentine Navy help?

In 1982, Argentina had a very capable

naval air arm that did a lot of damage

to British ships.

Flying from bases in Argentina were

Super Étendard fighter-bombers armed

with Exocet anti-ship missiles. But the

Super Étendard is not really rolled for

dog-fighting, certainly not by

Argentina, which uses it as an anti-ship

platform.

Incredibly, in 2026, Argentina still

operates Super Étendards in the same

role, but their entire fleet of some 15

aircraft is currently grounded due to a

lack of spare parts. Spare parts,

ironically, Argentina normally obtains

from the UK.

In 1982, the Argentine Navy also

possessed an old and upgraded World War

British aircraft carrier named the 30th

of May. It had an integral naval air

squadron aboard consisting of eight A-4Q

Skyhawks,

but not anymore. Argentina has no

aircraft carriers in 2026.

So, what about local naval supremacy?

Here, Argentina could conceivably, in

2026, overwhelm the Royal Navy assets

currently stationed around the Falklands

region, mirroring the situation in 1982.

In 1982, the only British naval vessel

in South Atlantic waters was the Royal

Navy ice patrol ship HMS Endurance.

She stayed well out of any fighting that

followed.

Today, the Royal Navy has two vessels in

the region.

The Falkland Islands guard ship based at

Mare Harbor, a naval facility 5 mi from

RAF Mount Pleasant.

This vessel is HMS Medway, a 2,000-ton

River-class offshore patrol vessel,

basically a Corvette.

However, she can't be classed as a

Corvette because of her armament, only

one 30-mm cannon, two general-purpose

machine guns, and two Browning .50

caliber machine guns. She carries no

missiles at all.

The other vessel is the ice patrol ship

HMS Protector, whose armament consists

of four .50 caliber machine guns and

five GPMGs.

These vessels would stay well away from

Argentine destroyers and Corvettes

deployed to protect any landing force.

So, the final problem for Argentina

would be actually transporting an army

to land on the Falklands.

In 1982, the Argentine fleet was

impressive. It had, as I mentioned, one

aircraft carrier,

a World War II-era light cruiser, the

General Belgrano,

two modern Type 42 destroyers, the same

type used by the Royal Navy, four older

World War II-era Sumner- and

Gearing-class American destroyers, and

three Drummond-class Corvettes,

plus two diesel-electric submarines.

There was also an amphibious landing

ship,

and a large icebreaker, the ARA

Almirante Irizar, a supply ship, and

several other survey, transport, and

patrol vessels.

The Navy also deployed some 20

helicopters with the fleet for supply,

anti-submarine, search and rescue, and

landing troop operations.

In 2026, the Argentine Navy presents a

very different picture, reduced to no

carrier capability, no functioning

submarines, a small surface fleet of

only three destroyers and six Corvettes,

and a single amphibious support ship,

and the old icebreaker Almirante Irizar

still in service, plus one tanker and

one supply ship.

If the Argentine Air Force failed to

destroy the RAF Typhoons at Mount

Pleasant, it is hard to see how any

small invasion force could get near the

islands without being attacked and badly

damaged by British aircraft. And even if

they managed to land any troops, these

ships would be subject to the same types

of attack mounted by the Argentine Air

Force against the British landings in

1982.

But for the sake of argument, if

Argentina managed to overwhelm the

British air defenses and land troops on

the Falklands, as in 1982, the objective

must be to capture the Falkland Islands'

main settlement, Port Stanley, and the

military bases and airfield surrounding

it. But unlike in 1982, the British have

in place a considerable military force

to defend these locations, numbering up

to 1 and 1/2 thousand personnel.

In July 2026, the British garrison

consists of a Rifleman infantry company,

that is a company detached from an

infantry battalion for service in the

Falklands. In this case, from the 5th

battalion, The Rifles. Plus a squadron

each from the Royal Engineers and the

Royal Logistic Corps.

In addition, the Falkland Islands

Defense Force, a very well-equipped army

reserve unit recruited locally, numbers

about 40 well-trained personnel acting

as light infantry.

In terms of fighting troops, and I

include the Royal Engineers and the

Royal Logistic Corps personnel in this

figure along with some from the Royal

Artillery, it would amount to at least

four companies of Riflemen and could be

reinforced by other personnel from other

support units based at Mount Pleasant

and elsewhere.

This is much more than what the

Argentines faced in 1982.

Such a force could make a prolonged

defense until help could arrive. And

that help would have to be another

British task force.

Here, however, we might have a problem.

Any long-term plan to eject an Argentine

incursion would require a significant

British naval response. And this is

where things could get a little bit

difficult for London.

As I've shown in several videos of late,

the once mighty Royal Navy has been run

down by successive governments to a tiny

fraction of what it was in 1982.

For example, in 1982, the full naval

component of the task force to retake

the Falkland Islands consisted of two

aircraft carriers,

eight destroyers,

15 frigates,

two landing ships, and six submarines.

Not to mention 22 Royal Fleet Auxiliary

Support Vessels, including three more

landing ships.

Aircraft totaled 38 Sea Harriers and RAF

Harrier GR3s, and 163 helicopters from

the Royal Navy, the RAF, the Army Air

Corps, and the Royal Marines.

The field has been leveled up for the

Argentines today.

Putting together a British task force a

fraction of this size would be an

extremely challenging thing to do in

2026.

We do have two aircraft carriers, but

they are mechanically unreliable. And I

think if one was sent out, it would

probably break down long before it

reached the South Atlantic.

Protecting it from air and missile

attack would be very difficult, as we

have virtually no functioning escort

ships left.

Remember in 1982, we managed to send

eight destroyers and 15 frigates to the

South Atlantic to escort those two

carriers, and still managed to keep up

our other Royal Navy commitments

globally.

Today, we have six destroyers and five

knackered frigates. And these ships seem

to spend most of their time in refit.

A full air group of 24 F-35B Lightnings

plus 14 helicopters should be available

on the carrier. And of course, Royal

Fleet Auxiliary ships will be sent as

well with more helicopters.

We wouldn't need to worry about

Argentine submarine attack for Argentina

has no functioning submarines at

present. But then, neither does Britain.

All of our hunter-killer submarines

currently being laid up in dockyards

under maintenance.

To carry the task force troops south and

land them in the Falklands would require

specialized amphibious warfare ships.

But both of these were recently

withdrawn from service and are due to be

sold or scrapped leaving just three Bay

class landing ships from the Royal Fleet

Auxiliary to do the work.

But I emphasize the fact that any

British aircraft carrier would probably

break down long before reaching the

South Atlantic. And without the carrier

and its integral air group, there would

be absolutely no point in attempting to

retake the Falklands. You'd have no air

cover.

So, I think this would be a serious

weakness for us.

Also, the F-35s aboard the carriers are

known to be extremely delicate planes

requiring extensive refits and

maintenance schedules. And I don't think

they would do very well in the harsh

conditions of the South Atlantic.

So, to be honest, pretty much any move

made by Argentina on the Falklands today

could probably be contained by the

British forces already there.

However, as we've seen, Argentina is

expanding its military capabilities.

For example, the only way that I could

see Argentina militarily taking the

Falklands again would be if they could

neutralize the RAF Typhoons of Mount

Pleasant or put the runway out of

commission.

At present, of course, Argentina has

only six F-16s, but would eventually

have 18. And the US recently announced

that it is selling them two KC-135

Stratotanker aircraft to supplement two

existing Argentine in-flight refuelers.

These facts should be of concern to the

Ministry of Defense in London.

The better tanker capabilities will

allow Argentine F-16s to stay airborne

for longer and begin the sort of

loitering and harassing activities made

by Russian aircraft around British

airspace in Europe. Couldn't all-out

attack by 18 F-16s on the Falklands

successfully overcome the four Typhoon

aircraft that are based there?

This is a question in itself.

When you factor in British naval

weakness in the South Atlantic, and

we've already established that Argentina

has naval supremacy in the region at

present, could such an air attack

overwhelm the small RAF contingent and

be followed up by a landing operation by

the Argentine Navy?

Argentina is currently in negotiations

to purchase three new submarines,

amphibious warfare ships, and two new

multi-role frigates, probably from

France and/or Denmark.

No proper British warship or submarine

is available in the region.

It doesn't seem absolutely beyond the

realms of possibility that in the

future, perhaps in the near future,

Argentina could make a landing on the

Falklands, which is an oil-rich

territory, very desirable to foreign

states due to the huge revenues that it

generates.

If a rejuvenated Argentine Air Force and

Navy successfully lands troops on the

Falkland Islands, Britain could do

almost nothing about it.

As I've shown, the Royal Navy is

currently too small and its ships too

unreliable or elderly to be able to send

a second task force to liberate them.

The only way to prevent a landing is to

immediately beef up British defenses in

the region. In particular, the naval and

air force assets in the South Atlantic.

But, I won't hold my breath.

If Argentina was to make a move on the

Falklands, the naval situation appears

to be in their favor, largely because

they know, like I know, and you know,

and the rest of the world knows, just

how militarily impotent Great Britain

has become through the efforts of

politicians' deliberate neglect of

national defense.

These are all complex questions. I'd be

very interested to see what you have to

say about all of this in the comments

below.

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