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Jiang: 90% of Humanity Could Be Gone in 50 Years. What Could Cause It?

1:24:10EnglishTranscribed Jul 24, 2026
0:00

The next 50 years, 90% of humanity dies

0:03

off. Dies off.

0:04

>> Professor Jung, in 2024, on camera, he

0:07

made three predictions. John would win

0:09

the election, America would go to war

0:11

with Iran, and the US would lose that

0:13

war. The first two have already come

0:16

true. Today, the world's biggest [music]

0:17

podcasts talk about his predictions

0:19

because the third one is coming true

0:22

right now. [music] The entire world

0:24

right now is off balance. The war in

0:27

Iran, I don't see them stopping. I only

0:29

see them expanding and increasing, but

0:31

sooner or later there will be peace.

0:33

Right? Right. The problem with peace, so

0:36

I'm going to visualize this for you. He

0:38

graduated from Yelp with honors and

0:40

worked as a [music] researcher at

0:41

Harvard, a man China invited to educate

0:43

its future leaders at the most

0:45

prestigious school in the country. For

0:47

the 20 years, he saw both the American

0:49

and Chinese systems from the inside.

0:52

Maybe that's why he notices what others

0:54

miss. Let me explain the three major

0:56

[music] reasons why America is in

0:58

decline.

0:59

>> But Musk says AI will save America.

1:01

Isn't [music] that true? When they say

1:02

that AI will transform society, they

1:04

don't mean you'll make your life easier.

1:06

Okay. So, the secret to the AI [music]

1:08

civilian state are two things. Two

1:10

things that allows me to predict their

1:12

behavior, but then also allows me to

1:13

control how you behave. Your predictions

1:16

keep coming true with frightening

1:17

accuracy. How did you learn to see

1:19

things this way? 10 years ago, [music]

1:24

I was broke. Broke. Broke.

1:26

>> I think about how I should just myself

1:31

and I'll be free of this hell. Hell,

1:35

hell.

1:36

>> When I was getting ready for this

1:37

interview, I expected a big episode

1:39

about geopolitics, but I walked away

1:41

with a story I still can't get out of my

1:43

head. It turns out the man whose

1:46

predictions keep coming true once

1:47

couldn't see his own future. how he went

1:50

from that point to being hurt by

1:52

millions. That might be the strongest

1:53

part of this episode. But once you hear

1:56

his predictions, you might change your

1:58

mind. Enjoy.

2:09

>> Yeah, it was a long journey to start

2:12

this recording today. Thank you so much

2:15

for joining our podcast. Thanks for

2:18

coming all the way to Beijing.

2:19

>> Professor Zan, I have to tell a little

2:22

bit my viewers. In 2024 on camera, you

2:27

made three predictions that Trump would

2:30

win, that he would star war, and that

2:34

America would lose it. It come true. You

2:38

graduated from Yale with distinction.

2:41

did research at Harvard's graduate

2:43

school of education and spent 20 years

2:46

teaching inside the most elo school in

2:49

Asia. Just in the beginning shortly, can

2:53

you say what is your mission and

2:56

passion?

2:58

I am first and foremost an educator. So

3:01

my mission is to enlighten and inspire

3:05

as many people as I can hopefully

3:09

through our podcast. Um and this

3:11

something that I would want to do for

3:13

the next 50 years

3:14

>> and as I understand your background

3:18

helped you in this way.

3:20

>> Absolutely.

3:22

>> Let me ask you about your life about

3:26

your childhood. What was uh at the

3:30

beginning? So I was born in 1976

3:34

in a small fishing village in South

3:38

China. And at that time, China was very

3:43

poor because this is at the tail end of

3:46

the cultural revolution and China has

3:49

been closed from the world for the past

3:52

10 years. My father was a high school

3:55

teacher at that time and he was very

3:57

concerned about China's future. So for

4:00

the sake of me, his son, and his future

4:04

children, he decided to immigrate to

4:07

Toronto, Canada, where we had relatives.

4:11

And for the rest of his life, he would

4:13

be a dishwasher.

4:15

And so because we were poor, you know,

4:17

my father cut my hair and all the

4:19

clothes I I wore were gifts from

4:22

relatives. So they were handme-downs.

4:25

They're secondhand clothes. So my

4:27

classmates didn't want to play with me.

4:30

I was never allowed to play in the games

4:34

that they played on playgrounds during

4:37

the recess. When the teacher asked us to

4:40

partner with a friend for school trips,

4:42

no one wanted to be be my partner. At

4:45

the end of grade one, um my teacher

4:49

asked to talk to my mother. My mother

4:52

didn't speak English. Uh she says to my

4:55

mother through the translator, "Your son

4:58

is wonderful. He's very polite. Uh he's

5:01

very obedient, but he does not speak a

5:05

word of English. This entire year, he is

5:09

in my classroom and he does not

5:11

understand anything I say. Every day

5:14

he's staring outside the window. He's

5:15

learned nothing this past year." And so

5:19

my mother hears this.

5:22

She asked the teacher, "Do you mean

5:25

[music] that you want my son to repeat

5:28

grade one?" And my teacher said, "No,

5:34

that's not what I meant. What I meant is

5:39

he should go to kindergarten." And my

5:43

mother then does something that changes

5:47

the course of my life. She turned

5:49

around, looked down at looked down at

5:51

me, and she asked me, "What do you want

5:54

to do?" I said, "I want to go to grade

5:58

two. I don't want to go to kindergarten,

6:00

and I don't want to repeat grade 1. I

6:03

want to go to grade two." Now, that was

6:08

the worst decision of my life because

6:11

the teacher was absolutely right. I go

6:14

into grade two and I fall further

6:16

behind. I become very insecure. I

6:18

stutter. Uh I'm afraid to speak in

6:20

public. And by the time I hit grade

6:23

eight, my life is just terrible. And my

6:27

father is being bullied at work as well.

6:29

I'm a very disobedient kid. Hits me a

6:32

lot. He's very violent towards me. And

6:34

at this point, I think to myself,

6:37

there's no safe space for me.

6:40

Um, I think about

6:43

I think about how I should just

6:47

and then just disappear and no one will

6:51

miss me and I'll be free of this hell

6:57

and that I'm living in. But I don't do

7:00

it. And the reason why is there's a part

7:03

of me, maybe there's this light inside

7:06

of me that dreams of a better world. And

7:11

I'm thinking myself how I'm shy, I'm

7:14

insecure, I stutter, but I see myself

7:18

one day on stage talking to an audience.

7:23

With my words, I'm able to move people.

7:26

I'm able to inspire people. vision in my

7:29

head that one day I could make a

7:32

difference in the world. I don't know

7:33

where it comes from. I don't know why I

7:35

believe it, but I believed it. So, I

7:38

continue. I struggled. I persisted.

7:46

>> I'd like to ask about your predictions.

7:49

How did game theory help you make them?

7:52

>> Right. I start to perceive each nation

7:54

state as a rational player trying to

7:58

optimize

8:00

or maximize the outcome.

8:04

And so let me explain using game theory.

8:08

>> Yeah.

8:09

>> Why I was able to predict that the war

8:14

uh between United States and Iran would

8:16

start. Okay. So I'm going to uh

8:18

visualize this for you. Yeah. Please.

8:20

All right. What is the game being played

8:23

about? What's it's being played about

8:25

trade access, right? It's about

8:27

resources and how to control resources

8:30

and how to move resources resources from

8:32

one place to the next. All right? Now,

8:35

in the game of geopolitics, there's a

8:36

very important theory that you need to

8:38

know. It's called the Mckender

8:41

theory. Okay? And Mckender was a British

8:45

uh military strategist. He he explains

8:48

how Britain as a naval power can

8:50

maintain control over the world. So at

8:55

this time in history, this is the 18th

8:57

century, 19th century,

8:59

people trade mainly by the sea because

9:03

it's the cheapest, fastest way to trade

9:06

around the world. The theory is very

9:09

simple. If you want to control the

9:11

world, you have to control certain choke

9:14

points. maritime choke points in the

9:17

world and then the world has to obey you

9:20

in order to access resources. Okay. And

9:23

so the most important choke points are

9:27

the

9:29

cape of good hope. It allows you to go

9:33

around Africa and reach Asia. Then you

9:36

have the straight of humus

9:40

>> which Iran now controls.

9:41

>> Yeah. You also have the Red Sea which is

9:44

where the sewers canal is and this is

9:46

important because the Middle East is

9:50

where most of the world's oil is

9:52

produced and you have to uh ship the oil

9:56

through the moose and the Red Sea in

9:58

order to access the rest of the world

10:01

especially East Asia over here you have

10:03

something called the sh of Malaa

10:06

okay which is between uh Indonesia and

10:09

Malaysia and the only way for East Asia,

10:13

China, South Korea, and Japan to access

10:17

Middle East oil is through the SH of

10:19

Malaka. You also have the sh of Jialter.

10:22

Okay. Over here in the Western

10:23

Hemisphere, you have the Panama Canal.

10:26

Um, and now what's happening is that you

10:28

now have the Arctic being opened up.

10:31

Most of human history, these were the

10:34

critical maritime choke points. So as

10:37

long as you able to control these choke

10:39

points, you basically control the world.

10:41

And this is what gave rise to the

10:44

British Empire. Otherwise, how could a

10:47

such a small island nation control the

10:50

world? This is the theory. But there's a

10:52

problem with this theory, which is that

10:55

as the world industrializes,

10:57

it becomes cheaper to build railways.

11:01

And with railways, you can negate the

11:03

sea. You can trade through land. you

11:06

don't have to trade fuse anymore.

11:08

>> And so the great fear amongst British

11:11

strategists is that one power would

11:15

emerge in Eurasia that could unify

11:19

Eurasia and then

11:22

u blockade Britain from accessing

11:26

Eurasia. And so the entirety of British

11:30

strategy was to prevent a land power who

11:35

could unify Eurasia. So at first it was

11:38

the French, right? This is what led to

11:40

the Napoleonic wars. There were seven

11:43

wars.

11:44

>> Yeah.

11:44

>> Napoleon won six of them and he lost the

11:46

last one.

11:47

>> And the reason why Britain fought these

11:48

wars is to ensure that France cannot

11:51

control Eurasia. because um if Napoleon

11:55

controlled Eurasia then Britain would

11:59

collapse economically. Then um after

12:02

Napoleon this led to the great game

12:04

between Russia and Britain for control

12:08

of Central Asia.

12:10

>> Mhm.

12:10

>> And then this is what led to World War

12:12

I, right? Because Germany was emerging

12:15

as the European hedgemon. And if Europe

12:18

became too powerful then it could build

12:20

railways into the Middle East into

12:23

Central Asia and Britain could not allow

12:25

that. That's what led to World War I and

12:27

World War II. Now after World War I and

12:30

World War II, America became the empire

12:33

but America still maintained this

12:35

system. And again the idea is in the

12:38

game of geopolitics what matters is

12:40

trade access. And the way to uh maintain

12:44

your empire is one to have the greatest

12:47

navy in the world and control the choke

12:49

points, but second of all to create

12:52

chaos

12:54

within Eurasia. What's happening right

12:56

now is that the entire Middle East is on

12:59

fire. the GCC, the Gulf Cooperative

13:03

Council, Saudi Arabia, uh Qatar, uh UAE,

13:08

they're not able to export oil around

13:12

the world anymore.

13:14

And this leaves now two major suppliers

13:18

of energy in the world. They are the

13:20

United States who which controls the

13:22

Western Hemisphere and Russia. And

13:25

that's what the great game is about.

13:28

It's about trade access. It's about

13:29

control of resources. It's about who is

13:33

allowed to trade with who. Right? So

13:35

given that the Middle East is in fire,

13:38

Japan,

13:40

China, South Korea can either buy LG and

13:44

oil from the United States or Russia.

13:46

And those are your two options.

13:48

>> Mhm.

13:48

>> Okay. So that's what this war is about

13:50

according to game theory.

13:55

>> Let's go back to your early years. What

13:57

did you do after high school?

13:58

>> In grade 10, a substitute teacher comes

14:02

into the English classroom. I feel

14:05

here's my chance to convince someone

14:11

I can be someone one day. And that one

14:14

week I'm with her, I'm a very different

14:17

person. I'm focused. I raise my hand. I

14:21

participate. I feel safe with this

14:24

teacher. And this teacher told me, "I

14:27

see something special in you."

14:30

And then that was it. She's went away. I

14:33

never saw her again. I don't remember

14:34

her name. I don't remember what she

14:36

looks like. All I remember are her

14:37

words. You are someone special. I felt

14:41

validated at that. From that point

14:43

onwards, I decide to make myself

14:47

special. One day, I'm sitting in the

14:49

classroom and my the guidance counselor

14:51

walks inside the classroom. I didn't

14:54

even know we had a guidance counselor.

14:56

She talks about how maybe some of you

15:00

for whatever reason you might want to go

15:03

to the United States for college, but

15:06

don't do that because the schools in

15:08

United States suck except for the Ivy

15:11

League, but the Ivy League is for rich

15:13

people. [laughter]

15:14

And then I hear this, Ivy League, what

15:16

is that? So I become interested. So I go

15:19

to the library and I study up on the Ivy

15:21

League. The Ivy League is where the

15:24

world's leaders go. These are people

15:26

with charisma. These are people who are

15:28

athletic. These are people who have

15:30

demonstrated tremendous character,

15:32

tremendous communication skills,

15:34

tremendous leadership skills. So from

15:37

that point onwards, I commit myself to

15:42

becoming Ivy League material. So, I

15:45

switched schools from my average to the

15:49

most elite academic public school in

15:52

Toronto. And they did not welcome me

15:54

because I was an outsider. But I didn't

15:57

care because I had a purpose. And my

16:00

purpose was to get into the Ivy League.

16:03

Then every day

16:06

um on the subway, it took me 30 minutes

16:08

to get to my school from my uh home. I

16:12

read The New Yorker. I read the Atlantic

16:14

because I needed to prepare for the

16:17

vocabulary test that was the SAT and

16:19

everyone in the school knew that I was

16:22

utitarian. I was ambitious. Then I

16:25

applied to four universities MIT, Yale,

16:31

Harvard, Princeton. So the first school

16:34

to reject me was MIT. It was a very

16:38

small envelope and it was a one-page

16:41

letter that said, you know, we like you.

16:44

You're a strong applicant, but there are

16:45

too many applicants. We have we have to

16:47

turn you away. Rejection letter was

16:48

Harvard. And Harvard wrote the best

16:51

rejection letter ever. Okay? [laughter]

16:54

Um because what the letter said is this.

16:57

The letter said, "Ultimately, it doesn't

17:00

matter where you go.

17:02

What matters is what you do when you get

17:04

there." I read the letter and I and I

17:06

thought to myself that is very very

17:08

true. Thank you Harvard. Um so Harvard

17:12

also rejected me but it was a very nice

17:13

rejection letter so I forgive Harvard.

17:15

Uh and then Princeton rejected me and by

17:18

midappril I've not heard from Yale. I

17:20

just assumed that Yale would also turn

17:24

me down. I didn't feel I I need any

17:27

chance. At the end of April, I go home

17:30

and in my mailbox there's this letter

17:32

from Yale and I didn't want to read

17:35

another rejection letter. So, I threw it

17:37

in the garbage and I went up to my room

17:40

to read. But then I was like, you know

17:44

what? I really should open that

17:46

rejection letter. I open it and the

17:49

first word is congratulations.

17:53

So now I go to Yale and I'm thinking to

17:57

myself that my life is forever changed.

18:01

This is Yale. Here I'm going to meet

18:04

people who will become my best friends

18:07

and we will do great things together.

18:10

And here every day I'm going to engage

18:13

in intellectual discussions with people

18:17

who are very serious. It's a place for

18:20

you to learn the etiquette, the

18:24

attitude, the manners of the elite, how

18:28

to think like them and how to talk like

18:30

them. And for the four years I was

18:33

there, I basically

18:36

became very isolated, very, very

18:38

alienated. I felt even more depressed.

18:42

At the end of the first year, our

18:43

freshman year, you're supposed to find

18:46

friends to room with,

18:49

>> but no one wanted to room with me. So,

18:52

they put me in the attic of the

18:55

residential college, Jonath.

18:59

And it was actually called Wear Hall,

19:03

WIR.

19:05

And there's like six rooms. They're

19:06

closets. They're for people who no one

19:09

likes. and I was one one of the um six

19:12

that no one actually liked. So Yale was

19:15

a very traumatic experience for me.

19:18

Rather than liberate me, rather than

19:21

empower me, it basically traumatized me

19:24

into my own depression.

19:30

This is one of the most fascinating

19:32

stories I've ever heard on my podcast.

19:35

You are very brave person. Thank you so

19:38

much for being honest and for sharing

19:41

this story with me today. We'll

19:43

definitely come back to this later. And

19:47

uh what are your predictions right now?

19:49

What are they about? What do you think

19:53

will happen in the future? So to

19:57

understand the future, we have to use

19:59

game theory to understand the situation

20:01

of each nation state. Okay. So let's

20:05

look at look at America first. America.

20:08

What is the source of American power?

20:12

What is the point of America? And the

20:15

point of America is to protect the

20:19

supremacy of the US dollar.

20:21

>> Yeah.

20:22

>> Right. Because everyone now uses the US

20:26

dollar and America can print an infinite

20:29

number off them. So that's a source of

20:32

American power. The problem with the

20:34

dollar is that it's a Ponzi scheme.

20:36

meaning that the US dollar has no

20:38

inherent value in itself. It's only

20:40

valuable if people want it. And

20:44

unfortunately right now because of

20:48

financial corruption in America because

20:50

the American military is too

20:52

overextended, a lot of nations are

20:55

choosing to walk away from the US

20:58

dollar. So look at Japan and China, they

21:01

are selling more US treasuries. The GCC

21:06

nations for the longest time were

21:09

supporting the American economy, were

21:11

buying US dollars. Yeah.

21:13

>> But because of this war, they're now

21:15

forced to sell more US dollars in order

21:17

to finance their own economies now that

21:19

they can export oil. What's so what's

21:22

been happening is that the bond yields

21:24

for US treasuries have been going up.

21:27

This is a problem because right now

21:29

America has $39 trillion in debt. So if

21:34

the debt yield, the interest rate is 5

21:37

to 6%, that means America has to pay $2

21:40

trillion

21:42

in interest payments alone annually. And

21:45

you can imagine that over time this

21:48

entire Ponzi scheme will collapse. So

21:51

America has absolutely no choice but to

21:54

force the world to continue to buy US

21:57

treasuries. So the only strategy

21:59

available to America is to use the

22:03

Mckender hypothesis and create as much

22:06

chaos as possible so that the world is

22:09

forced to go to America to buy energy

22:14

weapons. Okay. So um imagine a situation

22:19

like this where right now in Europe

22:21

there's a war going on between Europe

22:24

and Russia. In East Asia, there's

22:27

conflict now between Japan and China. In

22:31

the Middle East, the conflict is between

22:33

Iran versus United States and Israel.

22:36

Every one of these nations requires

22:39

energy, oil, weapons. America is a

22:44

continental fortress that has unified

22:46

the Western Hemisphere. Now, they have

22:49

infinite resources. They're able to turn

22:51

these resources into weapons that they

22:53

can sell the rest of the world and the

22:56

rest of the world is forced to to buy US

22:57

dollars in order to buy this energy and

23:00

weapons from America. Okay. So that's

23:03

the American strategy moving forward.

23:05

They have actually no choice in the

23:08

matter because they're addicted to US

23:10

dollars require the rest of the world to

23:12

buy US dollars. So they need to force

23:14

the rest of the world to buy US dollars.

23:17

You said that the US may have big

23:19

problems in the near future and uh that

23:23

the chance of this is high. But Elon

23:26

Musk recently said that AI can help uh

23:30

the US. He also tried to find problems

23:35

in the US government before. Now he

23:38

believes AI will help the US and other

23:43

western countries. What do we think

23:45

about this? Okay, so let's analyze why

23:48

America is in is in decline. And when

23:50

you analyze why it's in decline, what

23:52

you recognize is that it's declining for

23:55

every single reason why empires in the

23:57

past have declined before.

24:00

>> All right, so let's go over the three

24:02

major reasons why America is in decline.

24:04

All right, so the first major reason is

24:08

financialization.

24:09

>> Okay, what what does this mean? It means

24:11

that when an empire arises, it focuses

24:15

on manufacturing. It focuses on creating

24:18

real products, weapons, yeah, consumer

24:20

goods. But over time, what empire does

24:23

is it offshores its manufacturing to

24:27

other people, to other nations, to other

24:29

groups. And it focuses on financial

24:32

speculation primarily the idea of usery.

24:35

Okay? Money lending. Why? because that's

24:38

the most profitable thing to do.

24:41

>> But the problem is that financialization

24:45

does not lead to real productive growth.

24:48

It doesn't lead to real wealth

24:49

generation. It's only it only looks like

24:52

money on paper. If you open a restaurant

24:54

or you open a factory, you're

24:56

contributing growth to the economy,

24:58

right?

24:59

>> Yeah.

25:00

>> On average, you could be seeing a return

25:02

of 2%. But if you take the same money

25:05

you put in the stock market, you see a

25:07

return of 5%. So who's going to do any

25:10

work, right? And the reason why this

25:13

arises is because of the nature of

25:15

capital. Capital consolidates. Capital

25:18

monopolizes. And once you monopolize,

25:21

it's easier for you to make money and

25:23

you don't have to do a good job anymore,

25:25

right? So think of um Google and Apple.

25:28

They spend most of their resources on

25:31

stock buybacks in order to create this

25:35

illusion that they're creating more

25:36

value for stock brokers. This is all

25:39

financialization. And the problem with

25:40

financialization is that it warps

25:43

mentality of your population. Before it

25:47

was good, what was important is to work

25:50

hard and contribute to your community.

25:53

And that meant that people took pride in

25:55

going to the factory and making products

25:57

and helping the factory become

25:59

wealthier. Now what matters is get rich

26:04

now. Right? So that's why people like

26:06

Andrew Tate are so popular.

26:08

>> Mhm.

26:08

>> Right? Because he's telling you, "Hey,

26:10

if you work hard, you're a sucker.

26:12

You're a loser. If you follow rules, if

26:15

you listen to your boss, you're a loser.

26:18

You're a What you want to do is

26:22

get rich and become your own boss,

26:24

right? And that mentality has taken over

26:26

young people. There's a huge problem

26:28

because it means that it's hard for an

26:32

empire in decline like America to invest

26:34

in long-term projects. So AI absolutely

26:39

in theory AI could make America a much

26:43

stronger society. It could create real

26:46

wealth. The problem is if you look at AI

26:50

and what's been happening is that it's a

26:52

basically a Ponzi scheme where there's

26:54

only a few companies and they all just

26:57

invest in each other creating the

26:58

illusion of wealth and even today no one

27:04

knows how to make money out of AI. So

27:07

open AI has chachib people don't don't

27:10

appreciate this but for every new

27:12

subscriber to to chachib they lose

27:15

money. CH GBT is not a profitable model

27:19

and no AI expert can tell you how to

27:23

make money. And the problem is that in

27:26

Empire Decline, it's all focused on

27:29

speculation. It's about gambling. It's

27:31

about getting rich as opposed to being

27:34

practical and pramatic. Okay? So that's

27:36

idea of financialization. That's the

27:38

first problem with an empire in decline.

27:40

Second problem with an empire in decline

27:44

is the demographic crisis. The idea is

27:48

that because society is prosperous and

27:50

it's stable and it's peaceful, people

27:54

get older and because they're getting

27:57

older, they're able to monopolize much

28:00

of the wealth, power, and status in

28:04

society, leaving little opportunities

28:07

for young people. And we're seeing that

28:09

throughout the western world today where

28:11

the baby boomers are in charge and they

28:14

refuse to give up power.

28:16

>> So think about these US presidents.

28:20

They're all baby boomers. You go to

28:22

Congress and you've got guys like Chuck

28:25

Grassley who was a US senator and he's

28:28

93 years old. Can you imagine that? 93

28:34

years old and he is still working as a

28:39

US senator. He's the fourth person in

28:43

line to become president of the United

28:45

States. If Donald Trump dies, it's JD

28:48

Vance. If JD Vance dies, it's

28:52

uh Mike Johnson. If Mike Johnson dies,

28:55

it's Chuck Grassley. And so what's

28:57

happening in the western world is the

29:01

baby baby boomers refuse to retire. So

29:03

what do young people do? They refuse to

29:05

work. They refuse to have children. They

29:08

become indifferent to society. But the

29:10

next step is for them to fight each

29:15

other for a civil war to break out. And

29:18

this is just historically what's always

29:23

been true. Okay. Okay. You mentioned

29:26

there are three ideas. What's the third

29:29

one? Right. And the last the last and

29:32

the most important is the idea of elite

29:34

overp production. Okay. So this is an

29:37

idea from a historian named Peter

29:39

Turchin. He sort of mathematically model

29:41

how revolutions happened. And so he

29:44

looked at the French Revolution. He

29:45

looked at the fall of the Roman

29:46

Republic. He looked at many serious

29:49

events throughout human history. And

29:51

mathematically he discovered the main

29:55

cause

29:57

of civil war of collapse is you have too

30:02

many elite struggling for too few

30:06

positions of status of power. Right? So

30:10

think about how how in America for the

30:13

longest time financeers were in charge.

30:17

Wall Street was in charge. But then

30:20

these past 20 years, you have the tech

30:21

revolution. So now you have these tech

30:23

oligarchs like Ellen Musk and Peter

30:25

Theel and Larry Ellison. They want to be

30:29

in charge as well. So what happened was

30:31

that they sponsored someone to come into

30:35

Washington DC to overthrow the financial

30:38

elite. And this person of course was

30:40

Donald Trump. Who backed Donald Trump in

30:45

2024?

30:47

Peter Theo, Larry Ellison, and Ellen

30:50

Musk because they're trying to overthrow

30:53

the power of the financial elite and

30:55

establish the power of the tech

30:57

oligarchy. And so what's going to happen

31:00

in America over next few years is a

31:02

civil war arising between the old guard,

31:04

Wall Street, and a new guard, Silicon

31:06

Valley. [snorts]

31:08

And what Peter says is that this is the

31:10

most common explanation for why

31:13

societies go into decline. Okay. So

31:16

again to summarize there are three major

31:20

symptoms of a nation in decline. America

31:22

has all three. Financialization,

31:24

demographic crisis where where young

31:26

people refuse to um have children and

31:30

work and then elite overprouction. Okay.

31:33

And then everything else is an outgrowth

31:35

of these problems. For example,

31:37

immigration. Why is there immigration

31:40

both legal and illegal to United States?

31:43

The answer is young people don't want to

31:47

work and so you need to bring in

31:48

immigrants in order to replenish the

31:50

workforce. But we know historically if

31:53

you do this if you allow too many

31:54

immigrants to come into the country it's

31:56

going to cause civil chaos.

31:59

I'd like to go back to that time. How

32:01

did you graduate Yale with honors? How

32:05

was it possible? So, I went to Yale

32:10

expecting to study math and physics

32:12

because, you know, look at me. I'm I'm

32:14

I'm I'm Chinese, right? [laughter] So,

32:19

>> it didn't mean I love math and physics.

32:22

It's just like I'm Chinese, so I just I

32:23

just go study math and physics. So, I go

32:26

into Yale, plan to study math and

32:27

physics.

32:28

>> Yeah.

32:28

>> But, but Yale also requires you to study

32:31

humanities to graduate. So, I took

32:34

English. We're studying Chaucer and

32:38

Spencer

32:40

and Milton.

32:41

And

32:43

my first semester at Yale, I was

32:47

completely lost because I came from a

32:49

public school,

32:51

whereas most of my classmates came from

32:53

pretty elite private schools. So there

32:56

are certain things that they did which I

32:58

didn't know you were supposed to do. For

33:00

example,

33:02

if the teacher assigned you a book to

33:04

read, you're supposed to go read that

33:06

book. And I didn't know that. [laughter]

33:08

I didn't know you're supposed to

33:10

actually read the book before you come

33:12

to class. I thought that the teacher

33:14

would tell us what the book was about in

33:17

class. So [snorts] during a seminar

33:19

discussion,

33:21

I didn't say anything. I was completely

33:22

lost. And things got so bad that my

33:25

professor, my English professor

33:27

suggested that I don't take this class

33:29

anymore. she wanted me to like like go

33:31

do something else because she felt I was

33:34

wasting you know her time as as well as

33:36

my time because I was not following what

33:38

was happening in the class. But by the

33:40

time in English class that we got to

33:44

Milton

33:46

uh and Shakespeare

33:48

and the romantics Keats and Wsworth,

33:51

something snapped in me. Okay. something

33:54

caught my attention and I felt a

33:57

connection to the poetry I was reading,

34:01

especially Paradise Lost and I felt that

34:05

a spark had been ignited in me and I

34:08

became really interested in English. My

34:12

first semester in [music] English, I

34:14

only got a C minus, which is the worst

34:15

grade you could possibly get. And then I

34:18

got an A minus in my second semester and

34:21

I be I improved tremendously as a

34:25

writer. And so I felt as though

34:29

maybe before I was asleep and now being

34:33

at Yale in this seminar reading Milton

34:37

woke me up and said, "Hey,

34:41

this is who you really are. You're meant

34:44

for something bigger than all this. So

34:46

start paying attention, start getting

34:48

the work, start taking yourself

34:50

seriously." [music] And so I became a

34:52

very good student. Um, and that actually

34:55

made me even more alienated at Yale

34:57

because Yale was a competition and a lot

35:00

of the competition was to get approval

35:02

from from the professors

35:03

>> and you got it

35:05

>> and I got a lot of approval from my my

35:07

professors. In fact, I'm still friends

35:09

with uh my professors with some of my

35:12

professors. In fact, when I go to Yale,

35:15

I stay at their house. Uh, so they liked

35:19

me a lot and we stayed in touch these

35:21

past 30 years and we're still good

35:22

friends.

35:23

>> That's almost impossible to believe. You

35:25

started with a teacher telling you that

35:27

you should go back to kindergarten and

35:31

you became one of the top students at

35:35

Yale. That's an incredible story. I'm

35:38

trying to make sense of what happened

35:41

and there's a theory. If you want to

35:43

learn, then what's going to happen is

35:46

you're going to be assigned the hardest

35:48

life possible

35:50

because that's the only way you can

35:52

truly learn. So learning isn't about

35:56

reading books. That's part of the

35:58

process, but the real process is to put

36:00

you in circumstances that really

36:02

challenge you and force you to

36:06

persevere, either thrive or die. And I

36:11

think that's what happened. I think that

36:13

I came into this world demanding the

36:16

most challenging life possible. I always

36:20

chose the hard path in life because in

36:24

my heart I knew that's what will allow

36:28

me to truly

36:30

uh thrive as a person. So that's a

36:35

theory, but recently I've I've come to

36:39

this conclusion.

36:46

You said AI creates an illusion of

36:48

wealth, but can governments also use AI

36:52

to control people?

36:54

Um, do you know much about computer

36:56

science?

36:57

>> Uh, I know this. It is LLM models.

37:00

>> Okay. All right. So um for the sake of

37:02

your audience I'm just going to go some

37:03

into some basics about all okay so the

37:07

idea of computers is that it engages in

37:09

recursion okay recurs recursive loop

37:12

yeah

37:12

>> okay just loops in order to solve

37:14

problems the most basic problem it's

37:16

trying to solve is a math problem like

37:18

what is 1 + 1 okay

37:20

>> and a computer can do that now when

37:23

you're able to do it infinitely right 1+

37:26

1 plus 1 plus+ one you create great

37:28

things you're able to do things that

37:29

humans aren't able to

37:31

The other thing is that if you're able

37:33

to do 1 plus 1, you're bas basically

37:35

able to do every possible computation

37:37

including subtraction, multiplication.

37:40

Uh and so computers are wonderful thing,

37:41

but we need to remember that ultimately

37:44

it's about recursion. Okay, it's about

37:46

taking a simple algorithm and repeating

37:47

it infinitely in order to generate an

37:50

output that you want. The other thing

37:51

about computers is that what it's really

37:55

good at doing is uh database management.

37:59

Okay, so you have a lot lot of

38:00

information inside a database and there

38:03

are two things you want to do with this

38:04

database. The first is you want to sort

38:06

it basically organize information in a

38:08

way that benefits you and you want to

38:10

search it. Okay, basically you want to

38:12

retrieve information that is important

38:14

to you. If you look at most of AI, it's

38:19

basically this database management. So

38:21

what's Google? Well, Google is taking

38:23

this database that is the internet and

38:26

searching for information that you want,

38:28

right? That's Google.

38:30

>> But you also got facial recognition

38:31

technology. Facial recognition

38:32

technology is just basically

38:34

differentiating a billion faces and then

38:38

searching for the face that you want.

38:41

Okay. So, and then LLMS, right? Large

38:44

language models are the same way where

38:46

they take the entire possibility of

38:50

languages,

38:51

right? And then trying to uh search or

38:56

create uh something that you want. When

39:00

they say that AI will transform society,

39:02

they don't mean it'll make your life

39:04

easier. Okay. So, let's look at

39:06

Palunteer.

39:08

>> What is Palanteer really trying to do?

39:10

What it's really trying to do is take

39:12

all the databases in the world and

39:14

combine into one database. And then once

39:17

it has this one database, it can then uh

39:20

categorize people

39:23

into subcategories, right?

39:25

>> Yeah.

39:26

>> There are two ways that I can uh know

39:29

how you behave. The first is I look at

39:31

who your friends are and then I look at

39:33

your past behavior, where you spent your

39:37

money, how you spent your money. Okay?

39:39

Once I have these two crucial piece of

39:41

data, who your friends are and what

39:44

you've done in the past, I can predict

39:46

your life for the next 50 years, right?

39:49

And then what what I can do is I can

39:51

take people who are like you, who are

39:53

maybe [snorts] uh born in the same

39:55

neighborhood, have the same interest,

39:58

and then at age one, I can predict how

40:00

that person will behave for the next

40:02

hundred years.

40:03

>> So that's a project of palunteer, that's

40:05

a project of AI.

40:06

>> Yeah. Yeah.

40:06

>> To categorize people in a certain way

40:08

that allows me to predict their

40:10

behavior, but then also allows me to

40:12

control their behavior. And this is

40:14

what's called the AI surveillance state

40:16

or the AI control grid. And that's what

40:18

AI is.

40:19

>> Maybe some governments could also use AI

40:23

in good way. For example, for public

40:26

safety. What do you think about that? Is

40:29

it possible?

40:30

>> It's absolutely possible. I live in

40:32

China and we have an AI civilian state.

40:35

There's digital ID and there's digital

40:37

currency. There are cameras everywhere.

40:39

>> And you know when I first came to China

40:41

30 years ago, everyone would steal

40:43

everything. So if you left your laptop

40:45

>> Yeah. We can admit that here is very

40:48

safety.

40:49

>> Exactly. Right. So like if you just left

40:52

your laptop at Starbucks, went went to a

40:54

washroom, it'd be gone like that. Now

40:56

you can leave your laptop in public

40:58

because there are cameras everywhere.

40:59

>> Yeah.

40:59

>> And there facial recognition technology.

41:01

So if you steal the laptop, the police

41:02

know who you are. And it's really

41:04

convenient because let's just say you go

41:06

to supermarket, you don't have to use

41:08

cash anymore. You can just scan your

41:09

face and then the machine will

41:12

automatically deduct

41:14

>> Yeah. money from your account. China is

41:17

a testament to the power of AI

41:21

surveillance.

41:23

But there are problems with this. The

41:25

problem is that if you look at China for

41:28

the past 20, 30 years,

41:32

there's been very little creativity.

41:35

I've been in China for a long time and

41:39

1980s in 1990s, China was making

41:42

producing great movies. You have Jung

41:44

Mo, you have Changai

41:46

uh and these were really interesting

41:48

movies

41:49

>> and it was producing really interesting

41:51

ideas.

41:52

>> Yeah. And these past 10 years, China has

41:55

not been able to produce that many great

41:57

ideas. If you look at soft power, China

42:01

is not that great in terms of soft power

42:03

in that, you know, you have Japan and

42:05

everyone in the world loves anime. You

42:08

have Korea, South Korea, and everyone in

42:09

the world loves K-pop. China is not as

42:14

vibrant and dynamic as a society as it

42:17

used to be.

42:19

Um, and you can make the argument that

42:22

people are much more unhappy

42:26

than before.

42:28

So, for example, isn't it wonderful? You

42:32

you can just use your phone and call a

42:37

taxi driver and then he'll take you

42:39

anywhere

42:40

>> or app. Yeah.

42:42

>> Right. And it's really cheap, too.

42:43

>> Yeah. Yeah.

42:44

>> Right. But think about the emotional

42:48

pressure on that taxi driver. His entire

42:53

world, his entire life is controlled by

42:55

the algorithm.

42:57

So if you get a bad review, they deduct

43:03

your salary.

43:05

>> Yeah.

43:05

>> If you are late, they deduct your

43:08

salary.

43:09

>> Because of that, I regular try to give

43:11

five stars.

43:13

>> Exactly. This is ruled by AI. It is

43:15

heartless. It is about compassion. It is

43:19

inhumane

43:20

in many ways. So there are good things

43:23

like cheap cheap, you know, cat rides

43:27

and um safe streets and con convenient

43:31

purchasing, but there are bad things as

43:33

well. For example, you lose your soul.

43:35

you know, on platforms like YouTube, if

43:39

you do something wrong, you might stop

43:42

being recommended. And let's just say

43:46

that we do this YouTube video and for

43:50

the reason YouTube accidentally labels

43:54

it as

43:56

politically inappropriate.

43:58

Well, you're completely screwed, right?

44:00

Because good luck trying to find a

44:02

person who to complain to. Good luck

44:05

trying to plead your case. It's

44:08

impossible. It's all controlled by

44:10

algorithm. And the reason why is the

44:13

company doesn't see us as humans

44:14

anymore. These people who do AI,

44:19

their ambition is to make is not to make

44:22

society

44:23

much more vibrant, to make human life

44:27

much more creative. That's what they

44:29

say. Their entire purpose is to make

44:34

everyone into a robot. Okay? So, let me

44:36

give you an example of this. For the

44:38

past 10 years, they've been they've been

44:40

trying to solve the self-driving car

44:43

problem. So, a lot of these companies,

44:45

Tesla, Google, they've been trying to

44:47

introduce a fully automatized

44:52

car.

44:52

>> Yeah.

44:53

>> They can't solve the problem because

44:55

there's an edge case. And the edge case

44:57

is drivers who've lost their jobs, who

45:00

intentionally get into an accident with

45:04

the self-driving car. You can't solve

45:06

that problem. It's impossible to map out

45:09

human intention. So, there's one

45:12

solution to this problem. The solution

45:15

is make every car robotic.

45:20

Make every car self-driving. Take away

45:23

the steering wheel.

45:25

and you solve the problem.

45:28

When you buy a car, it's all electric.

45:30

It's all digitized. There are cameras

45:32

everywhere and there's no steering

45:33

wheel. So, you get in a car and where

45:35

and you can tell the car where to go.

45:37

And it's great if you think about it

45:38

because [snorts] you it's it'll be safer

45:41

for everyone. There'll be no accidents,

45:43

but you've lost all agency and you lost

45:46

all autonomy. And that's the world we're

45:49

moving towards where the thing that

45:52

they're most afraid of, the AI people

45:54

are most afraid of is human agency. So

45:57

the way to solve this problem is you

45:58

take it away from people. You don't

46:00

allow people to drive cars. You don't

46:03

allow people to make choices. You don't

46:06

allow people to waste money. Right? If

46:09

you are buying alcohol, they'll program

46:12

a digital currency to prevent you from

46:13

buying alcohol. There's nothing you can

46:15

do about it because everyone's using

46:16

digital currency.

46:19

>> Today you are a guest on shows like

46:22

Tucker Carlson and many people talk

46:26

about your predictions because they are

46:28

often very accurate. I want to ask you

46:31

did your education and life experience

46:35

help you see things this way? How do you

46:38

make these predictions? Okay. So, um

46:42

this fame is only recent, right? It's

46:45

only been the past one year. So, let me

46:48

talk about what happened after Yale.

46:51

So, I came to China as a high school

46:54

teacher wanting to reform Chinese

46:57

education. And my theory was very

46:59

simple. China has 1.3 billion people.

47:04

They don't speak English. I speak

47:06

English. Therefore, everyone should just

47:11

obey me and they will learn English.

47:14

That was my theory, right? Um, so here

47:17

in China, they speak ching English,

47:19

Chinese English, and for them that's

47:22

English. So, if you try to teach them

47:24

like real English, they don't care. Um,

47:27

so I learned that the hard way. So, I

47:29

floundered through uh school and I

47:32

decided I can't become famous being an

47:36

educator.

47:37

Um, so I decided that I'll try to become

47:41

a journalist

47:43

and I was a journalist for a couple

47:45

years, but that didn't work out either.

47:48

Then I tried be becoming a doctorate

47:50

filmmaker. That didn't work out either.

47:52

I tried working for United Nations in

47:55

Afghanistan. Didn't work out. And by my

47:59

late 20s, early 30s, I was a broken man

48:03

because

48:05

I had failed everything I tried. I felt

48:09

that

48:11

um the world was hopeless.

48:14

I basically for two years lived with my

48:18

parents. I lived in a basement. and I

48:21

played video games

48:24

every single day until my parents got

48:26

sick of me and threw me out. Okay, so

48:28

they threw me out and I'm forced to come

48:30

to China because China is cheap and I

48:32

speak the language [snorts]

48:34

and

48:35

every

48:37

day I would get up at

48:40

12:00 2:00 in the afternoon and then in

48:45

the evening I would go and I would get

48:47

drunk.

48:48

In the middle of winter, I sleepwalk

48:51

naked into a blizzard and I open the

48:55

door, okay? And like there's this

48:57

whiteness and the wind is whipping at me

49:01

and I'm fing back and that's a sign from

49:05

God which is like you better start

49:08

getting your act together. Um, and so I

49:14

um commit to change [music] my life. I

49:16

needed to reflect on how I got to this

49:19

point because I I was a very student at

49:20

Yale and 10 years later I'm a dismal

49:24

failure.

49:26

And I reflect and I recognize that my

49:31

Yale education

49:32

was very very limiting.

49:37

And there are three reasons why. First

49:40

of all, when you go to a place like

49:42

Yale, what you're taught is that only IQ

49:46

matters. If you're able to articulate

49:49

idea, then you are smart. But all the

49:53

forms of talent, whether it's musical

49:56

[snorts] or uh physical doesn't really

49:59

matter. All that matters is uh IQ. Uh

50:04

second thing is that failure is not an

50:08

option. You must succeed at all costs.

50:11

If you don't succeed at Yale, sorry, if

50:13

you graduate from Yale and you don't

50:14

succeed, you might as well Okay, so

50:16

there's a lot of pressure to succeed to

50:18

prove you're worthy [snorts] of a Yale

50:22

education. And the third thing is you

50:25

don't need to work with anyone. Just

50:28

based on your talent, you'll be able to

50:30

succeed on your own terms. And all three

50:33

of these things were not true.

50:36

And so I committed myself

50:39

to

50:40

changing my programming. What I wanted

50:43

to do was step outside of my body and

50:47

then look look inside my mind and then

50:49

reprogram it in a way that allows me to

50:53

to be more free to be more in control of

50:57

my life. Now at this point in my life

50:59

and this is like my early 30s I become

51:01

interested in a theory called

51:02

neuroplasticity

51:04

which is to say that we can always

51:05

rewire the synapses in our brain to be

51:08

whoever we wanted as long as you commit

51:10

yourself to the right activities. So for

51:13

one year

51:15

I decide to do things I've never done

51:18

before in my life including uh cinema

51:23

comedy [snorts] because the one thing

51:26

that in my life I was most afraid of was

51:30

being laughed at. And again for the

51:33

longest time I took myself very very

51:35

seriously. But the moment that I got on

51:38

stage and I told jokes and people

51:39

laughed at me, I felt they were laughing

51:44

with me.

51:46

The feeling of being able to bring joy

51:50

to the world made me feel extremely

51:54

happy and edified.

51:57

I also tried um a lot of sports, for

52:01

example, Brag jiu-jitsu. M

52:04

>> so um I'm not sure if you practice

52:06

Brazilian jiu-jitsu but the way they

52:08

train is very very strange because I did

52:11

Mu Thai and in Mu Thai they teach you

52:13

technique right and they make you

52:15

practice but jitsu you go to the um

52:21

place and for the entire time they beat

52:24

you up there's this bigger guy and all

52:26

he does is beat the crap out of you and

52:28

at the end of it your neck is sore you

52:31

know you want to cry I'm I'm going home

52:34

from the training and I think to myself,

52:37

this is really stupid. I'm getting beat

52:39

up in my 30s and you know when I was a

52:43

teenager in Toronto, I was also getting

52:45

be beaten up. The difference is this

52:47

though. The difference is now I'm paying

52:50

for the privilege of getting beat up in

52:53

my 30s. But what happened is that

52:56

through this training, you start to lose

53:00

a lot of your fear.

53:02

I also tried skydiving.

53:06

Don't do that, by the way. [laughter]

53:08

Complete waste of money. Um, but I did

53:11

skydiving. I did parkour. I learned how

53:15

to sing. Uh, I learned the piano. I I

53:20

did everything possible. And I also

53:24

tried cooking. So when you go to cook

53:26

cooking school, you're supposed to make

53:28

two dishes and you're supposed to

53:29

present your dish in front of the chef

53:34

who will then give you a grade.

53:35

>> Yeah.

53:35

>> And so uh we make our dishes and all my

53:39

classmates, they line up and they're

53:41

very proud of their accomplishment and

53:43

the chef tastes the meal and smiles and

53:49

says, "Great job." And then the students

53:51

feel great. It's my turn to present the

53:53

dish. A chef looks at me and says, "I'm

53:57

not touching this." [laughter]

53:59

And I'm like, "Wait a minute here. Wait,

54:02

wait, wait. This is strange. Are you

54:04

failing me? Are you going to fail

54:07

cooking school?" At Yale, the professors

54:09

don't do that. Okay? The professors tell

54:11

you how great you are. Even when you

54:13

suck, they say, "You're great. You're

54:15

going to go conquer the world." And here

54:17

in cooking school, they tell you the

54:18

truth. And I thought that was illegal.

54:21

You're not supposed to do that as a

54:22

teacher. And cooking school was a

54:25

humiliation ritual for me. But then I

54:28

started to observe my classmates. And

54:30

there's this one girl in my class and

54:33

she's 18 years old. She would get up at

54:35

4:00 in the morning to do two hours of

54:38

CrossFit. Then she'd bike to her work

54:41

and for like eight hours she would cut

54:45

vegetables.

54:46

>> Okay, just cut vegetables. And then

54:49

she'd come to cooking school

54:51

and then she'd go home and do it again.

54:54

And I and I and I thought to myself,

54:57

"Wow, she is so much more impressive

55:00

than I am, right? Because here's a

55:03

person who is dedicated, who's

55:05

passionate, who's committed to her uh

55:10

ambition, and why do I think I'm better

55:14

than her just because I went to Yale?"

55:16

And so I recognized that

55:18

um Yale is about making people arrogant.

55:23

It's not about making them educated. If

55:26

you really want education, the best

55:28

place to learn it is in life. So open

55:31

your heart, open your eyes, and learn

55:35

from others. And that one year really

55:38

changed the way I perceived myself and

55:41

the way I perceived education. and I

55:43

became much more determined to have an

55:47

open mind and to look at the world much

55:51

more objectively. These past four years

55:56

um I've been uh teaching politics in the

55:59

great books Plato Homer Dante and I

56:03

decide to upload my classes to YouTube

56:07

u because I want to generate a

56:10

international audience and my wife and I

56:14

are very at first we're very optimistic.

56:16

We were like we think that we can hit

56:19

5,000 subscribers. That's our goal.

56:22

5,000 subscribers. [snorts] And maybe

56:24

it'll take some time, maybe it'll take

56:26

four years, but with 5,000 subscribers,

56:30

I'll be able to help better per pro

56:32

promote education reform in the world.

56:34

Today, my YouTube channel has 2.6

56:38

million subscribers. [laughter] Uh, so

56:40

that sort of surprised us. Our our goal

56:42

was 5,000. We hit 2.6 million. But

56:47

that's how I came to today. Can we talk

56:52

about success? I know you've done some

56:54

research on this topic. Can you share

56:56

your conclusions with us? What makes

56:58

people successful in our world? So if

57:02

you look at all the studies of people

57:04

who are successful, there are certain

57:06

trait habits that they have, they have

57:08

certain habits that enable them to to

57:11

succeed. Okay. The first major

57:15

um habit is self-control

57:19

or delay gratification.

57:22

So the idea is you you're willing to put

57:24

away immediate pleasure

57:27

for long-term gain. So the famous um

57:31

example of this is something called a

57:32

marshmallow experiment. Yeah.

57:34

>> By Wal Walter Mitchell. And Walter

57:36

Mitchell at that time was working at

57:39

UCLA. This is 1960s. and he asked

57:42

children who are five and six to come to

57:45

his laboratory

57:46

to talk to just have a friendly

57:49

conversation. And then Walter Mitchell

57:52

would say to them, "I'm sorry, but I

57:55

need to go to a meeting for 5 minutes.

57:57

Could you please wait for me?"

57:59

>> Mhm.

57:59

>> I'm really sorry. So here, as an

58:01

apology, I'm going to give you one

58:03

marshmallow, but if you can wait for me

58:07

to come back

58:09

and you still have not eaten that

58:11

marshmallow, I will give you two

58:12

marshmallows. So then he goes away and

58:17

he comes back and he sees some kids have

58:20

already eaten that first marshmallow and

58:22

some kids who have not. Okay? And then

58:25

what what what he will do is what he did

58:27

was he tracked them for 50 years. And

58:30

what he found was that those who passed

58:33

the marshmallow test were more likely to

58:36

do better in school. They did better on

58:39

test scores. They were more likely to

58:43

graduate from university. They were more

58:45

likely to succeed in their work. They

58:48

were more likely to get married and have

58:51

happy marriages. and the group that

58:53

didn't pass

58:55

the test was a complete opposite. That's

58:59

the idea of self-control. Okay. So, the

59:00

first principle is self-control. Second

59:03

principle is something called

59:05

resilience.

59:06

So there's another Stanford psychologist

59:09

uh named Carol Dwight and she did

59:13

research into who succeeds

59:16

and

59:17

she came to the conclusion that those

59:20

who succeed have growth mindset

59:24

and those who fail have fixed mindset.

59:27

Growth mindset is whenever you encounter

59:31

failure or difficulty, you see it as

59:34

opportunity to grow. So you welcome

59:37

failure.

59:38

>> Yeah.

59:39

>> Those who have a fixed mindset see

59:43

failure as the worst possible defeat. So

59:47

they run away from failure. And so if

59:51

you keep on accepting new challenges,

59:53

you keep on growing and therefore you

59:55

keep on succeeding. Okay? So that's the

59:56

idea of resilience. And the third

59:59

principle is the idea of

1:00:00

self-reflection. This is this was um

1:00:03

intro introduced to us by a researcher

1:00:06

named K. Anders Ericson. He spent

1:00:09

decades looking at which students

1:00:11

succeeded. So he was basically looking

1:00:13

at violinists.

1:00:15

>> So uh he did a lot of research in the uh

1:00:17

in Berlin.

1:00:18

>> He went to a music school there and kids

1:00:21

at age five get into this music school.

1:00:24

And so he looked at uh these different

1:00:26

groups and he and he what what he

1:00:28

recognized is those who most succeeded

1:00:31

practice something called deliberate

1:00:33

practice. You can practice for as long

1:00:35

as as long as you want but the most

1:00:37

important thing is to be objective

1:00:40

in

1:00:43

assessing your weaknesses. Okay. So

1:00:46

these are the three basic ideas.

1:00:48

Self-control,

1:00:50

resilience, and self-reflection. But if

1:00:53

you go deeper,

1:00:56

what you recognize is that a lot of this

1:01:00

has to do with family. You come from a

1:01:02

good family that's wealthy and well

1:01:04

educated, you're much more likely to

1:01:08

have self-control. You're much more

1:01:10

likely to be resilient, and you're much

1:01:12

likely to engage in self-reflection.

1:01:16

So, what's the difference?

1:01:19

The difference is that if you come from

1:01:23

a good family,

1:01:25

you are much more likely to receive

1:01:29

unconditional

1:01:31

love.

1:01:32

How

1:01:34

deeply were you loved as a child by your

1:01:37

parents? How much love did you receive?

1:01:40

Because if you receive a lot of love,

1:01:43

you're much more likely to love yourself

1:01:45

and to love others. And therefore,

1:01:48

you're much more likely to engage in

1:01:50

self-control,

1:01:52

self-reflection, and resilience. But if

1:01:55

you didn't receive any love as a child,

1:01:58

you hate yourself and you fear yourself,

1:02:03

and so you're less likely to

1:02:06

succeed.

1:02:07

>> And uh do you think IQ score is

1:02:11

important uh for success?

1:02:14

I think IQ

1:02:17

is one of the greatest illusions out

1:02:20

there. So, uh there's a very famous

1:02:23

American writer named Neil Postman and

1:02:26

he wrote a book called The End of

1:02:27

Education and his argument is

1:02:32

the only reason why we have tests is so

1:02:35

that adults can differentiate between

1:02:37

smart kids and dumb kids. meaning that

1:02:41

intelligence is something that we just

1:02:43

made up

1:02:44

>> in order to justify a hierarchy of

1:02:47

power.

1:02:49

What would happen if all the adults in

1:02:53

the world disappeared today? Can we

1:02:56

imagine this world? Well, you everyone

1:03:00

would be like, "Oh, well, it'd be Lord

1:03:01

of the Flies. All the kids, the

1:03:03

teenagers would start

1:03:05

they would starve to because they're

1:03:07

incompetent." No. What happened is the

1:03:11

kids would all start working together.

1:03:16

The dumb kids, the smart kids, they

1:03:19

would lose these distinctions and every

1:03:22

kid would do what he or she could in

1:03:27

order to build a better society.

1:03:30

If you just leave kids alone, if you

1:03:32

just trust them, they'll go on and do

1:03:34

great things. We know this because in

1:03:37

the 19th century in Hawaii,

1:03:41

all these different immigrant groups

1:03:43

were brought in to work in plantations

1:03:45

on Hawaii. The plantation owners made a

1:03:48

purpose of inviting different ethnic

1:03:51

groups because they figured like if

1:03:53

they're from different ethnic groups,

1:03:54

they can't work together because they

1:03:55

don't speak the same language.

1:03:57

>> Yeah.

1:03:57

>> So, the parents are working in

1:03:59

plantations and the kids are left alone.

1:04:02

There's no school.

1:04:04

So what they do they create their own

1:04:07

language they create their own society

1:04:10

and they create their own games in order

1:04:13

to teach each other when I think about

1:04:17

country like Russia it's very large and

1:04:21

it's hard to manage such a big territory

1:04:24

some people say there are about 140

1:04:27

million people there and it's difficult

1:04:30

to organize work across such a space But

1:04:33

if you use robots instead of people, you

1:04:36

could use the whole territory more

1:04:39

effectively, grow the economy and uh

1:04:43

change many things. Why do you think

1:04:46

this view is wrong or do you think uh it

1:04:50

is actually correct? Okay, to answer

1:04:54

this question, we need to think about

1:04:57

the fundamental nature of reality.

1:05:00

And if you look at how human society is

1:05:03

created,

1:05:05

the main pillar

1:05:08

is the exploitation of labor. For the

1:05:12

longest time, this concept was called

1:05:14

slavery.

1:05:15

>> Right? So if you go back to the Greeks

1:05:18

uh and you read Aristotle, he tells us

1:05:20

that slavery is just a necessary part of

1:05:25

life. Never before in human history have

1:05:29

we had a society in which everyone had

1:05:34

time to be creative. And so Ella Mus and

1:05:37

other tech uh utopian uh thinkers

1:05:41

believe that robotics AI dization will

1:05:47

give us this paradise.

1:05:51

>> Yeah.

1:05:51

>> I don't think it's possible.

1:05:56

So let me explain why using Plato's

1:06:00

allegory of the cave. Okay. So in

1:06:03

[snorts] Plato his book the republic he

1:06:06

he uses a metaphor to describe human

1:06:08

society. So imagine a cave underground.

1:06:11

It's dark. No light comes in. And there

1:06:13

are prisoners about a million of them

1:06:16

lined up together chained to the floor.

1:06:20

They can't move. They can't even turn

1:06:23

around. They can only stare at a wall.

1:06:26

Behind them is great fire.

1:06:28

Around this fire are people. What they

1:06:31

do is they take puppets and they project

1:06:33

these puppets onto the wall. So the

1:06:37

prisoners are seeing shadows on a wall.

1:06:41

They believe that these shadows are

1:06:43

real. So they start to create

1:06:44

civilization around the shadows. They

1:06:46

give it names. They create language.

1:06:48

They create religion. They even create a

1:06:50

priesthood to celebrate these shadows as

1:06:51

gods. They create schools in order to

1:06:54

teach these shadows to their children of

1:06:57

civilization arises from these shadows.

1:07:02

For whatever reason, a prisoner breaks

1:07:04

free of his change. And so he goes

1:07:07

outside and at first he's blinded by the

1:07:09

light, but over time

1:07:12

he adapts to this new world of light and

1:07:16

his eyes feast on the beauty around him.

1:07:20

He thinks it's all divine and he thinks

1:07:23

he's in heaven and he asks himself, why

1:07:27

did I delude myself all this time?

1:07:32

So he wants to go back and convince

1:07:36

everyone to break off the chains and go

1:07:39

into light with him. And so he goes back

1:07:44

[snorts] and

1:07:46

the elite should want to, right? Because

1:07:49

if the prisoners would break free, then

1:07:52

society collapses and nothing can

1:07:54

function anymore.

1:07:56

Instead, what happens is the prisoners

1:08:00

him themselves.

1:08:03

Why? Because they're too wedded to this

1:08:06

reality and they don't want to be told

1:08:08

that this is all in uh illusion.

1:08:13

So to to go back to the Ellen Mus

1:08:16

argument,

1:08:17

>> yeah,

1:08:18

>> you're going to have a lot of people

1:08:20

first of all who will fight against the

1:08:24

robots because they're afraid of losing

1:08:27

their jobs. They're also afraid of

1:08:28

losing their own reality.

1:08:31

Right now, what the elite is most afraid

1:08:33

of are people sabotaging data centers

1:08:38

because it's actually very easy to

1:08:39

destroy a data center, right? It's all

1:08:41

electricity. you can just rig a drone of

1:08:43

explosives and go blow up a data center.

1:08:47

Um, so people are naturally resistant

1:08:50

towards change. Do you think uh this

1:08:53

trend will continue?

1:08:54

>> I think that if you have a society in

1:08:59

which a lot of men are made redundant,

1:09:03

they lose their livelihood,

1:09:06

then they will take up arms. they will

1:09:09

start to create violence in order to

1:09:10

reclaim their livelihood.

1:09:14

>> But maybe by the time people understand

1:09:16

the risks, it will be too late and uh

1:09:21

they will not have enough power to

1:09:24

change things. So being a truck driver

1:09:28

is one of the most lucrative jobs that a

1:09:31

high school dropout can have, right? You

1:09:34

don't need a college diploma. You don't

1:09:36

need to be educated to be a truck

1:09:38

driver.

1:09:39

>> Well, what happens if you make truck

1:09:42

driving automated,

1:09:45

robotic, these millions of truck drivers

1:09:47

would lose their livelihood. Are they

1:09:50

going to sit back and not do anything?

1:09:54

>> Of course not.

1:09:56

>> Right? So, it's most likely that they

1:09:58

will seek vengeance that they will try

1:10:02

to destroy the robots. And the same

1:10:04

thing happened during the industrial

1:10:06

revolution when you had a lot of

1:10:08

craftsmen

1:10:10

who made beautiful products by hand.

1:10:14

They were proud of the work they did.

1:10:16

They pro they also provided good

1:10:18

livelihood to their families. And then

1:10:21

you had factories come in. You had um a

1:10:25

lot of work was being mass manufactured.

1:10:28

And so these people would start would go

1:10:30

and destroy factories. So you could have

1:10:32

a similar situation.

1:10:34

>> Yeah.

1:10:34

>> With AI,

1:10:35

>> right? There were people called Ludits,

1:10:38

but in the end they lost their jobs and

1:10:43

everything changed.

1:10:45

So the first problem is social

1:10:48

resistance. Second problem is we don't

1:10:52

actually know if it's possible

1:10:55

to create a world of robots.

1:11:01

We just hope.

1:11:02

>> Yeah, we're [laughter] just hoping. But

1:11:04

there has not been enough evidence to

1:11:07

suggest that this AI robotic vision is

1:11:14

possible. The first was uh social social

1:11:18

will something do with this problem

1:11:21

because they will lose their jobs.

1:11:23

>> Yes.

1:11:24

>> And you said here is something else.

1:11:27

>> Yeah. So

1:11:29

right now if you look at development of

1:11:32

AI, it's very hard to move AI from the

1:11:39

digital world into the real world. I'm

1:11:43

just speaking as an industrialized,

1:11:45

right? I'm using game theory. I'm asking

1:11:47

and so I need to mass manufacture

1:11:49

robots.

1:11:49

>> Yeah.

1:11:50

>> To mass manufacture robots, I need a lot

1:11:54

of crucial ingredients. silicon, rare

1:11:58

earthbs, lithium, and right now there's

1:12:01

a war going on. So, it's getting harder

1:12:03

and harder for me to source a lot of

1:12:05

this material. I'm also unsure the

1:12:09

profitability

1:12:11

of robots. I'm not sure how how much it

1:12:15

will cost to produce. I'm not sure if

1:12:18

they'll work. I'm not sure people will

1:12:19

buy them.

1:12:21

So, but now, is there another way to

1:12:24

solve this problem?

1:12:26

And a possibility

1:12:28

which I think is much more cost-

1:12:30

effective is to turn humans

1:12:33

into robots.

1:12:35

So and all the ingredients are in place,

1:12:38

right? So you have in the world

1:12:40

something called the gig economy where

1:12:43

people are U drivers where people are

1:12:46

working part-time as janitors basically

1:12:51

labor on demand. They're all controlled

1:12:54

by the algorithm, right? We we just

1:12:57

discussed this.

1:12:58

>> Yeah.

1:12:59

>> You also have millions, hundreds of

1:13:03

millions of immigrants who want to come

1:13:07

into these Russian societies to work.

1:13:11

Because in the future, if you're in

1:13:14

Africa, it's possible there's a famine.

1:13:18

Famine. Yeah. In famine, you could have

1:13:20

a famine in Africa next five years. Yes.

1:13:22

What people don't appreciate is that the

1:13:25

earth itself, the planet itself can only

1:13:27

sustain about two billion people. So the

1:13:30

way we've solved this problem is by

1:13:32

inventing fertilizer

1:13:34

and about a third of the world's

1:13:35

fertilizer is transported through the

1:13:37

shoo. Shoo has been closed down for the

1:13:41

past 2 months. It's planting season

1:13:45

right now. So a lot of places can't grow

1:13:47

food. We don't know about the

1:13:50

consequences now, but wait 6 months and

1:13:53

you're going to hear lots of reports of

1:13:55

food shortages around the world,

1:13:57

especially in Africa, which is dependent

1:13:59

on fertilizer in order to grow grow grow

1:14:02

crops. So, we are we are moving into a

1:14:06

time of tremendous flux in of tremendous

1:14:10

volatility. You're going to have a lot

1:14:11

of people who will be desperate just for

1:14:14

food. So you can turn them into cheap

1:14:17

labor,

1:14:19

right? And then the last element

1:14:22

is your mobile phone. Your mobile phone

1:14:26

has become in many ways your best

1:14:28

friend.

1:14:29

>> Yeah.

1:14:29

>> Or your alter ego. You spend so much

1:14:31

time on the mobile phone. Now let me ask

1:14:34

you this question. Is there really a

1:14:37

difference between a mobile phone and a

1:14:39

microchip inside your brain?

1:14:42

You can drop out your phone microchip.

1:14:46

[laughter]

1:14:47

>> Well, here that's a good point. But you

1:14:49

know, a lot of workers cannot

1:14:53

leave behind the mobile phone. If you're

1:14:55

a Uber driver, your mobile phone is

1:14:57

attached to you because your your mobile

1:14:59

phone is

1:15:00

>> you will know have a job and food.

1:15:03

>> Exactly. You also have people working in

1:15:05

the AI industry, right? Who who who um

1:15:08

label training data around the world.

1:15:10

they're also married to their phones. So

1:15:13

you have cheap labor

1:15:17

um that's desperate for work. You have

1:15:20

microchip technology that that you can

1:15:21

implant into a person to control how

1:15:24

this person behaves and then you have

1:15:28

um mass demand in western aging

1:15:31

societies. So all the ingredients are in

1:15:33

place. So why not just turn humans into

1:15:37

robots which is cheaper than actually

1:15:40

create robots to replace humans.

1:15:42

>> And it's true that uh some companies now

1:15:45

reducing their use of AI because it is

1:15:49

very expensive. They lose a lot of money

1:15:52

sometimes millions of dollars and some

1:15:55

companies even tell their workers uh not

1:15:58

to use AI because of the cost. But

1:16:02

[snorts] maybe in the short term it

1:16:05

could be come cheaper than

1:16:08

[clears throat] it's now. Do you think

1:16:10

uh that is possible? So um the reason

1:16:15

why consumer good products have becoming

1:16:18

cheaper over the past 20 years is

1:16:20

globalization, right? It is cheaper for

1:16:23

you to source materials from around the

1:16:26

world. But in a time of war, in a time

1:16:29

of conflict, in a time of delization,

1:16:34

in theory, the cost of robots can only

1:16:37

go up, but the cost of humans can only

1:16:40

go down because you have hundreds of

1:16:42

millions of refugees from Africa, from

1:16:46

Asia, who are desperate for food. So,

1:16:50

aren't you better off

1:16:52

turning humans into robots than me mass

1:16:56

manufacturing robots not knowing not

1:16:59

being able to control the cost of

1:17:02

critical minerals? So now because of

1:17:05

crisis, economic instability and wars,

1:17:09

it may be difficult to make it cheaper

1:17:12

in the short term.

1:17:15

>> Look at inflation, right? Look at how um

1:17:18

energy prices are going up.

1:17:19

>> Yeah.

1:17:20

>> Right. So you look at for example data

1:17:23

centers in America.

1:17:26

They consume a tremendous amount of

1:17:28

energy. They consume a tremendous amount

1:17:31

of fresh water and they don't really

1:17:34

provide a tangible benefit to society.

1:17:37

So I I'm not sure how far you can take

1:17:42

the AI dream.

1:17:44

>> Okay. You said that it would be better

1:17:47

to have about two billion people on

1:17:49

earth. Do you think we will face

1:17:52

demographic problems in the near future

1:17:55

will the population keep going down? I

1:17:59

think over the next 50 years it is

1:18:01

entirely possible that 90% of humanity

1:18:04

dies off because we can imagine that

1:18:06

these wars that are being fought around

1:18:09

the world right now, they will only

1:18:10

expand. I don't see them stopping. I

1:18:12

only see them expanding and increasing,

1:18:16

but also because of these wars, it's

1:18:18

harder to get resources to the rest of

1:18:21

the world. Um, you're going to have

1:18:25

a lot of famine throughout the world.

1:18:30

We're also seeing a lot of changes to

1:18:34

the weather and it's possible that we

1:18:36

will have some environmental

1:18:38

catastrophes over the next 10 20 years

1:18:41

that's going to put out a add a strain

1:18:44

on global supply of food. Um and if that

1:18:47

were to happen then wars will break up

1:18:49

everywhere because people are fighting

1:18:51

for precious resources. Historically we

1:18:54

humans have fought over resources.

1:18:57

Historically, we lived in a time of

1:18:59

scarcity, in a time of war, in a time of

1:19:03

conflict. And we believed that we have

1:19:07

left all that behind. And unfortunately,

1:19:09

what's going to happen is history is

1:19:11

going to have its revenge. And it's

1:19:14

going to be brutal because the entire

1:19:18

world right now is off balance. We are

1:19:21

living too well, too prosperous, and

1:19:25

we've borrowed, we've mortgaged the

1:19:27

future. And so I see only tragedy and

1:19:31

conflict for the next 50 years. I'm a

1:19:34

young guy. I'm 25 and I have many

1:19:38

friends and family. I think about my

1:19:40

future and their future. Honestly, I

1:19:43

care about people and about humanity in

1:19:46

general. So what advice would you give

1:19:49

our viewers today and how can they stay

1:19:52

safe and succeed in life in today's

1:19:56

world? So um I'll give you two pieces of

1:19:59

advice. Okay. The first piece of piece

1:20:01

of advice is reclaim your attention. The

1:20:05

second advice is always trust your gut.

1:20:10

Always trust your intuition. The most

1:20:13

valuable commodity in the world is

1:20:16

attention. What the greatest act of

1:20:18

rebellion that you can make is to say,

1:20:22

I want to reclaim my attention. Meaning,

1:20:25

I turn off the computer. Meaning, I take

1:20:28

long walks by myself and just think

1:20:31

about who I am and what I want.

1:20:35

Read books, talk to friends, keep

1:20:38

focused, be present. When you do that,

1:20:42

you could forever transform the world.

1:20:45

Transform yourself, you transform the

1:20:49

world. My second piece of advice is

1:20:52

always trust your intuition.

1:20:56

We all came here for a purpose.

1:21:00

We can only know our purpose by

1:21:03

listening to our instincts, which tells

1:21:06

us if you're happy or you're not happy.

1:21:09

We're all here to learn. We're all here

1:21:12

to love. We're all here to grow. You

1:21:15

have to ignore ignore the noise. You

1:21:20

have to let go of your fear. You have to

1:21:23

trust your instinct and do whatever you

1:21:26

think is right and know that whoever

1:21:30

tells you not to do that, whether it's

1:21:34

your parent or your teacher or your

1:21:37

friend, they don't have your best

1:21:39

interest at heart. 10 years ago,

1:21:43

I was broke. I had no money. I didn't

1:21:48

have

1:21:50

a job.

1:21:52

I didn't have any money in my bank

1:21:56

account. I didn't have a place to stay.

1:22:01

And

1:22:03

at this at that at that time in my

1:22:06

history, I've basically given up on

1:22:09

life.

1:22:10

But there was a part of me that

1:22:15

wanted love.

1:22:18

I aspire to [music] love.

1:22:22

And

1:22:24

magically, out of nowhere,

1:22:28

an angel came into my life who is now my

1:22:31

wife.

1:22:33

I told her, "If you want to be with me,

1:22:37

it is possible that we'll be poor

1:22:40

forever. [music]

1:22:41

It's possible that we'll just have to

1:22:44

struggle through life. we'll be in pain

1:22:47

throughout

1:22:48

um our life. And she said, "I don't care

1:22:52

because I love you."

1:22:54

We had a child together now. We have

1:22:56

three [music] children together.

1:22:58

[snorts] And so

1:23:01

don't think with your brain. Don't plan.

1:23:07

Don't say, "I need to do this job. I

1:23:09

need to make this much this much money.

1:23:12

I need to be in this place."

1:23:15

Dream [music] with your heart.

1:23:20

Look for love

1:23:22

and the universe will

1:23:26

provide for you. Because when I met my

1:23:29

wife and we married and we had our

1:23:32

children, we didn't have a plan. I had

1:23:36

no idea at that time that I would have a

1:23:39

YouTube channel and it would have over 2

1:23:41

million subscribers.

1:23:43

I didn't know this. If your heart is in

1:23:47

the right place, if the true will and

1:23:50

desire, then the universe or God,

1:23:54

whatever entity you believe in will

1:23:57

answer you and provide for you.

1:24:01

Have faith in yourself and [music] seek

1:24:05

love, meaning, and purpose in your life.

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