投資特斯拉消逝的四年

Hello everyone, I'm Cherry Today I'm going to talk about Tesla I know I haven't talked about Tesla for a long time Since I last talked about Tesla It was almost 4 months ago It was around June 1st At that time, the stock price was about $170 Now it's about $240-250 Which is 40% to 50% of the price

Actually, there is no big difference. If you are a long-term investor of Tesla, you should be used to the 10% fluctuation of the day. I haven't talked about Tesla for a long time. Not because I'm not interested in this company. It's not because I sold my stock. From the day I started investing in Tesla to now, it's been more than five years. I don't remember exactly what.

I haven't sold a single stock yet. Tesla is also one of the most important companies in my stock market. I've shared this in my previous video. Okay, so what are we going to talk about today? As a long-term investor of Tesla, what made me persist for so many years? Today's stock price is about $241 billion.

4 years ago, in December 2020, the stock price was exactly the same as today. In other words, if you buy in December 2020, and today, after 4 years, the investment has not brought you any profit at all. In comparison, S&P500 has had a total growth of more than 50% since December 2020. So why do I want to invest in Tesla? What am I insisting on?

In the past 4 years, many people have been telling me to stop gambling and investing in Tesla. Even my good friends who care about my family and friends have told me to stop investing in Tesla. So today I'm going to talk about what happened in the past 4 years and why the stock price hasn't changed.

Before we start the video, I want to share a news Seeking Alpha Premium will be officially price increase on 1st October this year The subscription fee will be $300 per year So if you are interested, you can use the link below my video to purchase the subscription before the price increase on 1st October It will only cost $214 per year And if you subscribe before the price increase on 1st October, the price will be $239 per year

So in the next two years, you can save a lot of money and there won't be any cheap discounts after the price rises. So don't miss it! Okay, so if we want to know what happened in the past 4 years, we can first look at the EPS. Tesla's Q2 2020 EPS was 0.03. And this year's EPS is 0.43. In other words, in the past 4 years, Tesla's profit and loss has doubled 14 times.

What does 14x EPS mean? If you don't have any idea about EPS, you can think of it this way As a Tesla shareholder, every share you can make for the shareholder is 14x more than before But Tesla's stock price and company's valuation haven't changed much in the past 4 years

What else didn't exist 4 years ago? Tesla produced Model Y in 2020 And Model Y became the most popular car in the world in 2024 And it's not just electric cars It's the most popular car in the world in all cars It's also the first electric car in human history to be on this most popular car

According to the second quarter's car registration statistics, Tesla Model Y is about to surpass the Toyota RAV4 in the US and become the most popular car in the US. Let's look at another car, Cybertruck. Cybertruck was also released in 2019. At that time, no one believed that Cybertruck would be produced. No one thought it would be successful. Everyone thought it was just a scam to raise the stock price. Because this car looks unrealistic, any experts with driving experience think it's impossible.

We all know that product design conferences are actually very simple Anyone can go to them To make a car that can be shown at the conference This is easy for most car manufacturers It's just a concept car Everyone has seen it at a car show But it's very difficult to make a new car

This is like, "I know how to manage a company." Any MBA student will learn how to manage a company in class. But how many people in the world know how to manage a company? How many Tim Cooks in the world? How many Elon Musk? I think this is the difference between concept cars and mass-produced cars.

Besides mass production, the next difficult step is to make money How to make a car that people are willing to buy and can make money This is what most car manufacturers can't do Even now, everyone on the Internet likes the Rivian Until the second quarter of this year, every car sold loses a lot of money The more you sell, the more you lose In the second quarter of this year, Cybertruck has become the most popular electric Pika in the United States

But for thousands of dollars less

And now the delivery of Cybertruck is limited to the Foundation series. Just this Foundation series has become the most popular electric car in the United States. Then you can imagine Tesla will start to produce this mid-range version of Cybertruck at a price of $80,000. What kind of impact will it have on the market?

Even after the release of the $60,000 Cybertruck, which is a lower-end version of the Cybertruck, it is likely to become the most popular P-Car in the United States. Not only limited to electric P-Car, but it is likely to compete with the F-150 fuel version. And the most amazing thing is that Tesla does not have to spend any money to advertise.

In the US, celebrities and celebrities are willing to help Cybertruck advertise for free. There are millions of celebrities who have posted Cybertruck on their social media. Cybertruck is also the most attractive car on the road now. I know there are many on the road in California and Texas, but it will definitely be eye-catching. Let's take a look at Tesla's semi electric truck.

Tesla Semi was released in 2017 and in 2022, it was the first to be delivered to Pepsi, Pepsi's Pepsi has accumulated more than 7.5 million kilometers of electric car mileage until today Tesla Semi's mass production is expected to start next year

at the Nevada Supermarket that is currently under construction The target production capacity is 50,000 units per year After the launch of the Tesla Semi Bill Gates once said that he thinks these electric cars especially long-distance transportation electric cars are unrealistic because there are too many batteries needed and more batteries will only increase the weight of the car

Well, Tesla hit the jackpot again. According to the latest public information, the Tesla Semi Long-Term version has a weight of 800 kilometers and weighs less than 10,500 kilograms. Generally speaking, a traditional diesel car weighs about 7,000 to 10,000 kilograms.

So the Semi of Tesla is not as heavy as the traditional diesel truck The main thing is to bow to Tesla's engineering team They are really great They have optimized the electric motor to a very large battery capacity It can achieve a very good battery life This is different from other electric car brands Other electric car brands can only rely on increasing the battery capacity to increase the battery life violently Just like Apple and Android phones are different

Apple is not always unlimited to increase the performance of the hardware but rely on continuous optimization software to increase the user experience. In addition, because it is an electric truck, its charging equipment can be installed anywhere. So Semi can also charge at the same time when unloading and loading. This is something that traditional diesel cars can't do.

And Tesla and Pepsi have also successfully verified that they can use 1:1 to replace the existing oil and gas fleet with semi-automatic. And then there is no need to sacrifice any transportation efficiency and increase time cost. This is the technology that Tesla Semi can do now. Of course, because Semi has not yet started mass production, this part has not yet reflected on the company's valuation. But you can imagine that after the real mass production, which transportation company will not want to replace the existing oil and gas fleet with Tesla Semi?

First of all, the battery life is not inferior to the traditional diesel car. It can also be charged when it is off. The maintenance cost is greatly reduced. You can save nearly $100,000 per year. And what's most important? When FSD can run on the semi, as long as a software update, you can immediately save a driver's salary.

The most expensive thing in North America is human resources. And these transportation companies only care about numbers. They don't care about any rumors about Iran and X. As long as they can save money and bring higher profits to the company, they will pay the bills. This is completely different from the general consumer's thinking.

Unlike the general consumer who says "Oh, Iran is supporting the Republican Party, I don't want to buy their car" Or I saw someone on Threads saying "Iran is a deaf man, so I want to sell all my Tesla stocks" For a company, everything is just numbers And Tesla's ecosystem also has Megapack, which will also need to deploy Megapack to stabilize their power system due to the need for charging the truck Many people don't understand what Tesla is doing, this is their ecosystem

The entire ecosystem is helping to build up the future Speaking of Megapack, I've talked about it in a video a long time ago Not just one video, I've talked about it in many videos Tesla's energy deployment will be greatly improved in the future Become one of the most profitable businesses Let's take a look at the second quarter of 2020 less than 500 MWh of energy deployment in the second quarter of 2020 But four years later, which is the second quarter of this year Tesla's energy deployment reached 9.4 GWh

is more than 10 times what it was four years ago. The company's valuation hasn't changed much since then. Let's look at the auto-driving. Tesla's FSD was like this in 2020, four years ago.

The latest version of the V11 has successfully helped North American car owners to solve the pressure of driving on the road by more than 95% You can have breakfast, listen to podcasts, chat with FSD, which you couldn't imagine before Of course, the current version still has to be fully operated, but I can already see the day when the automatic driving was realized I remember only eight months ago, I tested the final version of the V11 in San Francisco

At that time, there were basically no problems on the highway. But on the road, there were a lot of small problems. I was very nervous when I sat in the back seat. But in just a few months, V12 has already been replaced by more than ten versions. Currently, V12.5 has solved most of the problems that the V11 version can't solve. I said in the previous video that I think whether the self-driving car can succeed is a correct direction. It depends on the speed of its replacement. The fact also proves that this is indeed a correct direction.

And we also see more and more autonomous driving research and development companies abandoning radar This also once again proves that Tesla's decision at the time was the right direction In the past four years, all FSD progress has not yet reflected on the company's stock price and company's valuation

The main reason is that these technologies haven't brought real-time revenue to the company yet and then it's reflected in the financial statements. But this is the advantage of a retail investor because Wall Street hasn't seen these numbers yet. They can't change this stubborn model. This will give me a chance to continue to add more when Tesla is lower than the market value. You should know that Wall Street especially likes margin. When these software and service margin start to reflect on Tesla's financial statements, EPS will explode.

The price of the stock will also explode Just like I mentioned in my last video Ever since the price of NVIDIA's interest rate began to rise The price of the stock has also gone crazy And what I just said I haven't thought about the robotaxi Optimus Dojo The influence as a service of each car This is why I insist on investing in Tesla for so many years

Of course, everything is different. So I use Seeking Alpha to look at different analysts' opinions. In fact, the hardest part of investing is not only your persistence and conviction, but also when you make a mistake, you know when to stop. The professional articles on Seeking Alpha are tools for me to repeatedly verify my own opinions. I can see a lot of articles about Tesla on it. Why is it Strong Buy? Why is it Hold? What are the reasons why many analysts recommend selling?

根據這些證據還有理性分析的結果 你可以自己得出你自己的一個結論 這樣子才可以真正讓你成為一個長期的投資人 而不會因為短期的市場波動就恐慌的拋售 我自己曾經也是一個會因為市場情緒而亂操作的投資人

But since I started subscribing to Seeking Alpha and started to get in touch with some professional analysis articles I started to learn how to judge bullshit how to distinguish between what is thought and what are the things I really need to consider to challenge my own basic understanding of the basics And Seeking Alpha is a huge community You can see a lot of people's comments there I think it's very helpful Just like I mentioned in the beginning of my video Seeking Alpha's premium is going to start to rise on November 1st this year It's going to be $300 a year

Before the price rises, if you subscribe to my channel on the 1st of October, you will only need $214 per year. And the renewal in the second year will also lock the price at $239. So in the next two years, you can save a lot of money. So don't miss it. The purpose of this video is not to suggest you invest in Tesla. As I mentioned in the previous video, I think investing in Tesla is a very difficult thing. It's hard to see the stock market fluctuate in this company.

The market is also very emotional All the media hates Tesla Plus, because Tesla has too many subcontractors It also set a bunch of enemies This company before every wave of growth may have a long period of time Your investment is not making any money Just like the last four years S&P 500 has risen more than 50% But I believe as long as Tesla continues to do the right thing

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