【警告】株高の今、次の暴落に備えてやっておくべきこと６選

Hello. This is Kentaro. A

major market crash is coming soon. You'll probably see opinions like that quite often

. The stock market has been performing well in recent years

. Well, there were times when stock prices temporarily fell due to factors such as increased tax liability and lethal risk

. However, it recovered relatively quickly and has since begun to rise

. Many people have likely significantly increased their assets in recent years

. However, on the other hand, US stocks are considered to be

quite overvalued

, and there are concerns that the AI ​​bubble may burst

. Therefore, some people are expressing concerns about a market crash

. Nobody knows if a market crash is really coming, or when

it will happen

. However, it will eventually come

, and how you act at that time will

greatly affect the growth of your assets afterward.

In order to remain calm and act appropriately even during a market crash, it is

extremely important to be well-prepared for such a crash

. So, this time, I'll explain six things you should do to prepare for the next market crash

.

Now, let's get straight to the point. Recently,

more and more people are using new investment strategies to invest in index funds such as the All-Star and S&P 500

. While stock prices have been performing well in recent years, a market

crash is unavoidable if you are investing for the long term

. There will inevitably come a very difficult phase where stock prices fall by 30% or 40%

. However, it's important to

prepare for the crash while stock prices are still doing well, even before it actually happens. This should allow you to remain calm and continue

investing without wavering, even during a market crash

. I

believe this will ultimately lead to building wealth in the long term, so I hope it will be of

some help. The first thing you should do is

decide on the style of clothing you'll continue to buy

. Whether the stock market is rising or falling, I will continue

investing and keep making regular contributions, regardless of the market conditions

. It's like

deciding within yourself not to waver from your core principles

. This is because when a market crash becomes a concern, or when

stock prices actually start to

fall, some people start thinking the following:

[Music] It's dangerous to continue investing now, so let's

stop our regular contributions. Alternatively, we could

sell the fund temporarily before the assets plummet and

see what happens. Well, I

understand the feeling that you might make more money if you avoid the market crash

. However, timing investments other than this is

truly difficult. It requires the miraculous feat of selling near the peak of the stock price and

buying back around that same point, twice in a

row

. Some people might feel that it's possible

. [Music] However, no

one knows where the market peak is or where it is

. I sold my shares thinking it was at its peak, but then the

stock price kept rising. Alternatively, you might manage to

sell off your shares successfully, but while you're

waiting, the stock price might reverse and you

miss the opportunity to return to the market. [Music]

In that case, the

return would be significantly lower compared to if you had simply continued investing steadily

. The difficulty of timing investments becomes

clearer when you consider real-world examples

. For example, around March 2026

, the S&P 500 index was declining due to concerns about the situation in the Middle East

. Around this time, there was a

lot of pessimism about the stock market,

but in April, stock prices rebounded and made a V-shaped recovery. Since

then, the price has significantly surpassed its previous record high. And I doubt there were many

people who could have predicted this turn of events beforehand. In that

sense, those who chased stocks because they were influenced by the market decline likely

missed out on the subsequent recovery and rise, resulting in a

decrease in their assets. Conversely,

those who endured the decline and continued investing steadily were able to witness the lightning-fast surge in stock prices, which must have

increased their assets. Of course, stock prices may

not recover immediately.

And when that actually happens, some people may find it

psychologically difficult to continue investing during a market downturn

. However, if you're investing in a music index fund based on the assumption of a long-term

upward trend

, a decline in stock prices is actually an

opportunity. [Music] Because you're

changing the number of shares you get for the same amount of money. You will likely

reap significant benefits when stock prices recover and rise afterward

. Conversely, if you stop investing because stock prices are falling and you feel uneasy, you might end up just

buying at high prices indefinitely

. In

short, never stop investing, no matter what, and keep

buying funds relentlessly. I

believe this is the most reliable method for us to increase our assets over the long term

. To avoid panicking during a market crash, make a firm decision now to

continue buying

. The second point is to stick to passive operation

. There

are two main types of investment strategies. The first is passive investing

, which, simply put, is an investment method that aims to track the movements of the overall market

. Well, the

products that make this possible are index funds like All-Can and S&P

500

. And the second is active management. In short

, it's an investment method that involves independently selecting stocks and

aiming for returns that exceed the market average.

Many people start investing with passive strategies,

but especially in the current

climate, it's quite common to stray from passive investing altogether

. For example,

influenced by opinions such as "60% of Orca's holdings are US stocks, so it's not diversified," one might

buy various products with the aim of broader diversification. Alternatively, the

idea is that since the returns on the S&P 500 are concentrated in specific companies, you should only invest in stocks that have performed well in recent years.

These may seem effective at first glance

. However, considering the long term, including during market crashes, it is

extremely important to be careful not to stray from passive investing. First of all,

active trading has a poor win rate.

According to S&P Dowzy Jones Index, only about 10% of active US equity funds have

outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 15 years, while the

remaining 90% have underperformed the S&

P 500. Even with investment professionals

managing the portfolio, this is the reality. Moreover, if

we ordinary people were to actively manage our funds, the

results would likely be very disappointing

. In other words, let's

increase diversification even further than with Orkan.

Aim for a return higher than the market average. Thinking this way is

more likely to have the opposite effect than the other way around

. Well, the reason why Orkan's

US ratio is 60% is because that's how the stock market is right now

, and the

companies that generate high returns in music change greatly depending on the era

. Furthermore, doing unnecessary things and

moving away from the passive approach can

lead to various disadvantages. You might find yourself constantly worrying about the state of your investments and

easily influenced by information on social media. When stock prices fall, you might

feel more scared and end up exiting the market altogether

. Alternatively, even if the

stock market as a whole enters a recovery phase after a crash,

your assets might not recover quickly because you've been tampering with your investment portfolio in the wrong ways

. Considering all of the above, I

believe that continuing to invest passively by buying the entire market is the rational approach, both for steadily increasing assets and for entertainment purposes

. I don't deny that people who enjoy investing as a hobby may

engage in some active, satellite-style investing. However, the

core of my investment strategy will remain passive. I

strongly recommend that you keep this in mind. Next, the

third point is to reconfirm your risk tolerance

. I've always said that it's important to keep buying index funds that are broadly diversified across the entire stock market

. However, there is one crucial

prerequisite to this. That is, within the limits of risk tolerance

. Risk tolerance is the

degree to which you can tolerate a certain level of negative impact. [Music] This

varies greatly from person to person depending on their age, family structure, future spending plans, personality, etc.

However, in any case, voting beyond the disk allocation limit could lead to a

crash that could be fatal

. You might end up selling at a low price when the market is down

, or you might find yourself unable to carry out your life plans

. [Music] And the market is booming.

Sometimes we underestimate our risk tolerance, and we're tempted to

invest a lot of money

. [Music] So, now is the perfect time to

reassess your own risk tolerance and consider how

much money you should allocate to stocks, or rather, risky assets

. As

for specific methods, there isn't one that's been

decided upon. I'll just

introduce one way of thinking about it. That's an approach that separates the aspects of daily life and one's lifestyle from the aspects of one

's mental state

. First, regarding lifestyle and life planning

, this refers to a certain amount of emergency funds, roughly equivalent to

six months to two years' worth of living expenses

, as well as money you plan to use in the near future, such as education expenses or

car purchase costs. These kinds of things should be held as government

bonds for individuals, without taking any risks

. Well, securing this properly will

help you steadily execute your life plan. So,

the amount remaining after deducting these is basically the money that can be put into investment,

but there's one more thing you

need to consider: your own mental state. It comes down to how

much your assets can psychologically decrease before you can no longer tolerate it

. It would be wise to refer to past market crashes for guidance

. For example, during the Lehman Shock, the

S&B 500 index fell by more than 50%

. It fell by about 30% even during the COVID-19 shock

. In other words, imagine your assets decreasing by 30%, or in the

worst case, by half. Based on that,

the amount you feel you can tolerate will be the

appropriate investment amount within the range of risk intensity

. If you're someone who doesn't mind a significant temporary decrease in money you don't plan to use, you'll be able to

invest a large portion of your surplus funds

. On the other hand, even if you don't plan to use it, you might find it frightening if your current

assets, or rather, your investment amount, were to decrease by more than 30%

. Well,

theoretically, there's no problem. That does

n't mean I'm mentally okay. If that's the case, you should consider cashing out

part of your fund or

adjusting your monthly contribution amount. However,

naturally, reducing the proportion of stocks in your portfolio will also

reduce the benefits you receive when stock prices rise. Therefore, it's

important to take that into consideration and take risks that are appropriate for you. In investing, the

most important thing is to stay in the market.

Therefore, it is essential to reconfirm your own risk tolerance

. Next, the fourth point is to

have a moderate perspective. The key is moderation

. Specifically, it's not about having an excessive expectation that stock prices will continue to rise every year

, but rather the idea that there will be

phases where they fall significantly, but in the long run, they will rise

. As I mentioned at the beginning, I've seen quite a few opinions recently that the current

stock market rally is due to an AI bubble, or that a

crash will occur due to the bubble bursting

. Well, it's true that the recent surge in stock prices is

mainly driven by giant American

tech companies. These companies are

making massive investments in AI, and expectations are growing in the market that

AI will generate even greater profits

. In other words, the

stock price is rising partly because the aircraft is being released first. In

that sense, if investments in AI bear fruit and companies

generate profits as expected, stock prices are likely to remain healthy

. However, if demand doesn't keep up and it does

n't translate into much profit, there's a

good chance the price could plummet. This might make you

feel uneasy, but

generally speaking, it

takes time for new technologies to become widespread. Furthermore, as excessive

expectations subside, stock prices may plummet, and

some companies may falter. However, there will

undoubtedly be companies that continue to improve their technology amidst this situation. And in the future, the

potential of such technologies will be re-evaluated and

gradually incorporated into people's lives. As a result,

stock prices are expected to recover and rise

. In fact, during the IT boom of the 1990s,

stock prices plummeted when the bubble burst. However, as

the internet became more widespread, the

stock market as a whole also grew significantly

. Considering that, even if the current stock market is a

bubble and a crash is coming, I do

n't think there's any need to be afraid. Well,

however, American stock prices didn't

really take off during the World Pope's Day. This upcoming crash could be on a similar

scale, and it could even lead to the

collapse of capitalism. Some people might feel this way

. However, it is believed that the

prolonged influence of the World Pope in America was

largely due to the influence of Kinmoto. Well, one aspect of the reason stock prices and the economy haven't been able to improve is that the government hasn't been able to

supply a lot of money through monetary easing

.

However, that is not the case now. If a market crash or

recession were to occur, governments and central banks in various countries would likely

implement economic measures to support the economy and stock prices

. Of course, some companies and industries will

face difficult situations

. However, looking at the overall picture, other

companies and growing industries will

emerge that will replace them. Therefore, I

think you can expect a sufficient return in the long term if you invest in the entire market through an index fund. Furthermore, the possibility of

capitalism collapsing cannot be ruled out. But by then, it's all over

.

Those who haven't invested have also suffered significant losses, and the value of the currency is likely not being maintained

. So I don't

think there's much point in worrying about that. By

maintaining a moderate level of caution, you'll be less affected by market crashes and be able to

continue investing with a long-term perspective. Next, the fifth

point is to live a life close to home. I'd like you to

imagine this for a moment: what would happen if stock prices

plummeted

? Of course, a

decrease in your own assets is a major concern, but that's

not the truly frightening part.

This could potentially shake up our everyday lives

. The Lehman Shock is a good

example of this; when stock prices fall sharply, a

full-blown economic downturn often occurs in conjunction with it

. So, if the economy worsens,

unemployment will rise and the risk of food insecurity will increase

, and it's quite possible that bonuses and salaries will be cut.

Naturally, it's conceivable that you yourself could find yourself in such a

situation

, in which case your household finances would be severely strained

. In the midst of difficult living conditions, assets are also dwindling

. Such a situation would be

extremely mentally distressing. Alternatively,

even if you understand intellectually that a market crash is a bargain, you might be

unable to buy stocks and instead be

forced to draw down your assets. That's why it's so

important to live a stable life from now on, so that you'll be able to cope even if difficult situations arise. Specifically, the first step is to

carefully control your spending.

Generally, as income and assets increase, expenses tend to

increase as well. This is due

to what's known as lifestyle inflation or the wealth effect

. However, if you increase fixed expenses, you are more

likely to struggle when your income decreases due to displeasure or other reasons. Well, it will become more

difficult to reduce expenses. Therefore, it's

important to be mindful of not raising your standard of living too much. When it comes to enjoying luxuries and such, I

think it's best to spend money selectively. Furthermore, strengthening human capital, or the ability to work and

earn money, is also very effective.

People with in-demand skills or qualifications

, or those in households where one person is working, are likely to have a

very strong defense against a sharp decline in the market.

[Music] Because the income is relatively stable,

even if stock prices fall, it's easier to minimize the negative impact on one's life

. This will make it

easier to continue your monthly savings, and you should be able to

turn dips into opportunities to buy more. In that

sense, taking action now to significantly increase the overall human capital of households is a very

important measure to take against a market crash

. Having a solid foundation for one's life can

mitigate the damage even if a market crash or religious injustice occurs

. Since it's impossible to know when the economic situation might worsen, let's

focus on living a sensible life from now on in order to continue investing steadily. Next, the sixth point is to

understand the strengths of individual investors. Well, this is just a

supplementary point, but I think it's a surprisingly important

perspective. [Music] In conclusion, the

strength of being a homemaker is that you are allowed to do nothing, or rather, leave it alone

. What this means is that the

majority of transactions in the market are conducted by institutional investors, which are essentially

groups of investment professionals. Since they manage clients'

money, they are

quite sensitive to short-term gains and losses. Therefore, if

any factors causing concern spread, they

sell their stocks to avoid losses. In other words, it will withdraw money from the stock market

. Well, if you do nothing and your assets

decrease significantly, you'll get yelled at for what you've been doing

. And when many people

sell at the same time, the stock price can

fall sharply. However, if the

economy starts to show signs of improvement, including political policies, then

professionals will see it as an opportunity to make money and

return to the market. Well,

as a result, stock prices are expected to recover and start rising again

. On the other hand,

we individual investors can stay in the market without doing anything, even if stock prices fall

. [Music] In other words, unlike investment professionals, there is

no need to buy or sell. And yet, you

can expect long-term returns while riding the market trend, so in that respect, it has

significant advantages.

Understanding this point will help you stay calm even when stock prices fall in the short term or when you see

information that sensationalizes a market crash

. I believe this will lead to a more settled, long-term approach to investing

. While stock prices have been performing

well this year, market crashes are unavoidable when investing

. And no

one knows when the crash will come. [Music] In

that context, the important thing is to take

measures and make preparations in advance so that you will be alright no matter when a market crash occurs

. By deepening our understanding of market movements and crashes, we can

enhance our mental resilience to market downturns. In addition, it's important to

prepare your living foundation and

reconsider the level of risk you're willing to take, so that your daily life and life plans aren't significantly disrupted by fluctuations in the stock market. If you can do this, you should be able to

stay in the market without panicking even when a market crash occurs. I

believe this will lead to increasing your assets in the long term. Let's continue working together to

build our investment and wealth.

[Music] Thank you for watching until the end

.