加密貨幣發生了什麼事？

Hello everyone, I'm Terry. Bitcoin came to the old time high of $126,000 in October this year. Then it didn't last long, it went down all the way in November. Finally, a few days ago, it went up to $80,000, which is over 35%. Until today, when I'm recording, Bitcoin is still at an over $80,000 price. OK, then Bitcoin has fallen by more than 30%, let alone other bonds. Let's take a look at the Ethereum from $4,700 to $2,700, which is over 40%.

Solana fell from 238 to 128 ADA Cardano fell from 0.9 to 0.4 If you have invested in some more powerful currency like FATCOIN, the fall is more than 70% Today's video is to talk about what happened to the cryptocurrency Why has it been falling? Has the bear market started?

If the bear market has started, how long will it last? First, we need to answer this question. We need to look at a very important chart. It is the chart of the four-year cycle of Bitcoin, the annual production and sales of the four years. From this chart, we can see that from 2012, the first production and sales have been four times. After every production and sales, we can see that the first few months will be a bull market.

The red dot here means that the price of Bitcoin has reached a historical high. After the historical high, the bear market starts.

until the next Bitcoin's price drop. This pattern has been maintained for a while since 2012. After the first price drop, the price of Bitcoin reached its highest point on 371 days. Then it started to go up. After the second price drop, Bitcoin started to go up on 526 days. The third price drop is on the 548 days after Bitcoin started to go up. Let's assume that Bitcoin hit an old time high on October 6th this year, which is about $126,000.

Let's assume that Bitcoin is the highest point of the bull market this round From last year's last year's low-income, which was around April, to this year's October 6th, which is about 534 days This number is similar to the previous two cycles So if history repeats itself, the highest point of the bull market this round is probably 126,000 yuan Another opposition point is that many people say that Bitcoin has entered a super cycle

which means it is no longer affected by the four-year cycle of the bull market because more and more traditional finance and institutions are starting to accumulate Bitcoin plus a series of large-scale US-supported cryptocurrency developments so this argument now looks like it's not that much of a standstill

Because the time line is indeed aligned with the previous cycle If the theory of 4 years cycle is established, which also confirms the bull market this time, then everyone should be most concerned about when the next bear market cycle will end. When will it end? OK, let's look at another picture This picture tells you the length of each Bitcoin bull market and bear market We will not refer to the data from 2012, because that is too old Let's look at the last three cycles

The bull market in 2015 lasted for 1065 days. The bear market lasted for 365 days, which is one year. The bull market in 2019 lasted for 1066 days.

and bear market maintained for 365 days. If the bull market really reached its peak on October 6th, it means that the bull market has gone through 1035 days in total. I don't know if you noticed this pattern, it's like an expert is making an old sign. A bull market with 1060 days followed by a bear market with 365 days. Then another bull market with 1060 days followed by a bear market with 365 days.

And this time it's also 1060 days of bull market, almost 1060 days So if October 6th this year is really the end of the bull market And then it's the beginning of this bear market According to history, how long will this bear market last? This should not be thought about in my head, it's 365 days In other words, if history is repeated again Next Bitcoin will be at the bottom around October next year Then the next round of bull market will start Of course, if history is repeated

OK, if you don't have any information, let's look at another bear market signal. You should have heard that if the price of Bitcoin is over 50 weeks of moving average price, that means the bear market has officially started. What is the moving average price of 50 weeks?

The 50-week moving average is calculated based on the last 50 weeks. Bitcoin calculated the average price of the weekly UTC 11.59 points per week. If the price of Bitcoin has broken the average price of the last 50 weeks, it means that the bear market has officially begun. Let's take a look at the Bitcoin. Bitcoin fell to 103K on November 25.

and still haven't recovered. The time we had a 50-week MA fall is around... April of this year, we had a real fall, but we recovered very quickly. So that doesn't count. It was around the end of 2021. Then it started to fall back to the 50-week MA in March of 2023.

The timeline basically starts with the bear market and ends with the bear market. So if you judge the bear market from the 50-week MA, it's pretty accurate. Another reason why the price of Bitcoin has been falling since October is that many Bitcoin OGs have started to cash out.

This wallet was bought at $10,000 for every $1.5 coin in 2014. That means it only spent $15,000. On November 4, it cashed out $1 billion. This is just one example. In the past few weeks, there have been a lot of Bitcoin deposits.

They also choose to cash out at this time. For example, in July this year, there was a Bitcoin that cashed out nearly $1 billion. It was bought about 11 years ago. Does this early accumulation of Bitcoin cash out behavior mean that they have completely lost confidence in the market? Actually, no. You can't think like that.

Think about those who invested in Bitcoin in the early days. I think it's not that hard to invest in Bitcoin in the early days. The hardest thing is to hold on to it for more than 10 years and not sell it for 10 years. That's how high the faith and conviction you have to have to be able to do it. Think about it. In the past 10 years, you've seen your assets expand from A5 to A6 to A7 to A8 to A10 to A11. In this process, you've been almost free of wealth since A7 and A8.

You just need to cash out, that's it. But you still insist on seeing millions of people every day. And then continue to accompany him through the bull market. There are really very few people like this. But they also have a crazy belief. So I think they are very confident in the cycle of Bitcoin's four-year cycle. And then decide to sell cash out at the end of the bull market. I think it can be understood. Because if I have so much Bitcoin.

I have experienced so much bullfighting I will definitely plan to choose a bullfighting tail and clean it up This can make me calm down a little bit Then you may ask why they don't wait until the next cycle of bullfighting to sell it At that time, Bitcoin may be 500,000 or even 1 million at that time It's not better to sell it at that time When your assets have reached a certain extent You have to add more in the back, that is, add a few more zeros There is actually no point

You can't spend all these money in your life. If I have 100 million dollars of Bitcoin, I will immediately cash out. What's the point of waiting for 4 years to charge 100 billion or even 1 billion dollars? OK, so what I just said is all about the technical side of the chart to explain the collapse of this market.

Let's look at some basic reasons. First, Wall Street analyst Tom Lee said that the crash was caused by software leakage. Because at that time, on October 10th, a decoupling of USD/E stable currency caused a large number of accounts to be cleared. At that time, even if you only opened two times the leverage, it would be cleared directly. This kind of rapid fall performance is called leverage flush out. Causing the entire cryptocurrency market to fall quickly.

Because in fact, the long-term is a dead spiral. With the low-cost base products being liquidated, the higher the selling pressure, the price of the market continues to fall. And then cause more long-term. In fact, it is a little bit like the Terra Luna of that year. Because of the incident on October 10, in addition to many flash long-term losses, the biggest loss gap is actually in the stock market of encrypted currencies. Due to these losses, the next stock market will continue to sell assets to fill in the gap.

You may be wondering why the market is so bad and the market is losing. Let me explain a little bit. In the transaction of encrypted currencies, the market is providing buyers and sellers at any time to ensure that the market is flexible and can trade. When the price breaks down in a short time, the buyers will be forced to buy in the asset that the price falls quickly.

and the stock on hand will suffer huge losses. But in this case, the market still has to take over. Because this is their job. Otherwise, the market will lose liquidity. At that time, because of the large number of contract break-ins, the demand for liquidity suddenly rose. The market was not enough to take on the pressure. As a result, the stock of the market was quickly consumed.

and they need to invest more money to make up for the loss. In the end, they can't provide the depth that the market should have. And then it falls more and more. That's the vicious cycle and then causes a spiral of death. Of course, we can take a more positive angle.

The uncertainty of the world economy is the most important factor. The most feared AI bubble is in the US. The uncertainty of the fall of the US in December is also in the US. Although the market is still very likely to fall.

But you have to know that any little uncertainty can cause a collapse of the cryptocurrency market and the technology stock market. This kind of high-risk asset is very, very sensitive. Another thing that affects the global market liquidity is the increase in the interest rate of the Japanese central bank. Because Japan's current plan is to slowly continue to increase interest rates. This will lead to serious impact on the price of assets like Bitcoin. Then you must be wondering what the relationship between the increase in interest rates of the Japanese central bank and Bitcoin is. First of all, you have to know that Japan was in Japan before 2020.

利率其實一直都保持著0 甚至是負的 那自從貿易戰開打之後呢 日本其實是慢慢的在提升利率 來控制通脹 那你要知道 當以前利率低的時候呢 在日本借錢呢 基本上就是免費的概念 所以說很多日本的企業還有機構呢 基本上就是靠所謂的 carry trade 來賺免費的錢 carry trade 的意思就是 跟日本的銀行借錢 因為利率基本上是0 所以說能借多少就借多少 然後他們再把那些錢換成美元

to buy those 3% or 4% returns of US dollars. This is basically a business that does not make money. Because the risk of using US dollars is basically very, very low. This is the so-called carry trade. In fact, many people did this in Taiwan before. Because Taiwan's interest rate is very low.

They borrowed money from the bank and exchanged it for US dollars to buy a house in the US. But now the US is starting to decline and the Japanese central bank is starting to rise. That means the profits of Carry Trade are being compressed. This leads to a very expensive and risky business.

Because you have to consider the cost of exchange and the risks of exchange So these institutions, with the increase of the Japanese central bank They slowly sold their carry trade assets Whether it's bonds or other U.S. stocks Then exchange for Japanese yen Take it back to the Japanese bank to pay off

This will cause the market to be less flexible because of the carry trade. You should also know that the flexibility of the market determines the high-risk assets, such as the price of technology stocks and Bitcoin. The reason why Bitcoin has been so popular recently is because the risk of flexibility is reduced. So the high-risk assets are the biggest impact of cryptocurrency. And it will be the first and most obvious.

Because the cryptocurrency can be traded for 24 hours. Okay, so that's the reason why the cryptocurrency has been so popular recently. In fact, I think Bitcoin is a very complicated thing. No one can really explain it now. Why is it so popular? Why is it so popular? It's still a very controversial asset.

Is it a market-friendly asset that can play a role in market uncertainty? Can it be a potential asset like gold? Or is it actually like a technology stock? A high-risk, high-investment asset And it's because of its globality and super high liquidity And the quality of 24-hour trading We actually can't use a simple technical side or a basic side to explain the changes in the market

So that's why I still continue to use DCA Bitcoin. I haven't sold a single Bitcoin since I bought the first Bitcoin. Of course, I also know that Bitcoin has a four-year cycle. And the Bitcoin bull market cycle. I've talked about these since my first video. But because this market is too complicated.

Plus, we have the US midterm elections, the US will be down, and QT is about to end. QE is coming. When the liquidity opens up, plus the world's policy of encrypted currency is getting more and more relaxed, everything will be able to bring up the market sentiment in a very short time.

Plus, my investment experience in the past few years tells me that timing the market will definitely be a disadvantage over long-term buy and hold. The money I just talked about, those Bitcoin stocks that have been holding for more than 10 years, have also been verified again. So I didn't sell it, I was also going to keep it. I won't adjust my position according to the cycle.

Alright, I hope this video is helpful to you. If you want to invest in cryptocurrency, please visit the link in the description. There are the exclusive registration link of the cryptocurrency exchange I am currently using, and all the open-end login lessons. All have been organized on my website, you can go and see for yourself. You are also welcome to join my only TG group or follow my IG. I will share all my transactions there. OK, see you next time.