Crimea Situation Is Insane

Something incredible is happening right

now during the war in Ukraine. More than

12 years after Russia first invaded and

seized control over the Crimean

Peninsula, Moscow's grip over the

territory is finally beginning to slip.

Near the end of May, the Ukrainian armed

forces announced that they were adopting

a new strategy towards the Russian

occupation in Crimea that they called a

logistics lockdown. Unable to take

Crimea back with troops on the ground,

they were going to use their new

mid-range explosive drones to

systematically target Russia's

logistics, warehouses, equipment,

infrastructure, and supply routes going

in and out of Crimea at operational

depth instead. In effect, this new

Ukrainian strategy aimed to transform

Crimea's geography from a Russian

strength into a Russian weakness by

isolating it as much as possible from

the rest of Russia and Russian occupied

territory. In June, Ukraine's defense

minister, Mkhyo Fenerov, claimed during

an interview on YouTube that this new

strategy aimed to effectively transform

Crimea into an island, which if

successful, would have devastating

consequences for both the Russian

military operating on the front lines

and for Russian society at large. And so

far, this new Ukrainian strategy has

proven to be extremely successful.

You see, the Crimean Peninsula is

geographically speaking already almost

an island naturally. It is only

tenuously connected to the rest of the

European continent in the north through

land by the extremely narrow ismas of

Paraccom, which only ranges between 5

and 7 km wide. Other than this one

natural connection, the rest of Crimea

separated from southern Ukraine by the

seivage or the rotten sea, a complex

labyrinth of shallow lagoons, salt

marshes, and wetlands that are

incredibly difficult to traverse over.

Other than the ismas of Paracop, there

are basically only two other places

across the seash that are both wide and

firm enough to actually handle roads and

railways. Meaning that there are really

only three narrow logistical corridors

between southern Ukraine and Crimea that

land-based logistics can travel across

its scale through the ismiss of Paracop

in the west, through Chongar in the

center, and across the Arab spit in the

east. After Russia seized control over

Crimea in early 2014, this geography

posed a serious challenge for the

Kremlin to deal with since there was no

connection to it by land to the rest of

Russia. Russia sort of solved this

problem by building a $4 billion bridge

to Crimea from Cranadar Cry across the

Kurd straight, which features a highway

that was finished in 2018 and a railway

that was finished near the end of 2019.

But it still wasn't enough to fully

logistically support Crimea's population

of more than two and a half million

people. And Russia's expanding military

presence on the peninsula. Russia spent

billions of more dollars heavily

militarizing Crimea after the 2014

conquest with new military bases, radar

stations, airfields, naval

infrastructure, and garrisons that all

enabled the Russian military to have a

large base of operations to invade and

attack southern Ukraine from during the

2022 invasion. While since then, Crimea

has also given the Russians a rear base

to support their military operations all

along the southern frontfront. One of

Russia's principal objectives for having

invaded Ukraine again in 2022 was

establishing a direct land corridor to

Crimea across southern Ukraine through

the Donets, Zaparisia, and Hanolasts in

order to make Crimea less of a

logistical island for them and to

solidify their control over it. Now,

since the invasion, the principal

methods that the Russians have used to

reinforce Crimea with supplies and

troops have been through this web of

roads and rail lines through the

occupied land bridge in southern

Ukraine, through the $4 billion Crimean

bridge that they built across the Kirch

Strait, and through fairies and maritime

base logistics. And all of these

connections have beun being relentlessly

and routinely attacked by the Ukrainians

recently. Before the start of the

current strategy to cut Crimea off from

the rest of Russia, the Ukrainians

repeatedly attacked the bridge across

the Kurd straight first, but with only

limited successes. A truck bomb the

Ukrainians blew up on the highway part

of the bridge in October of 2022 knocked

out two sections of it and resulted in

months worth of repairs. Road traffic

across the bridge was severely disrupted

by the attack for months, but rail

traffic continued relatively quickly

afterward. In July of 2023, Ukrainian

naval drones attacked the bridge again

overnight, collapsing one of its

sections in the process. But like the

first attack, while it managed to

disrupt road traffic across the bridge

for months, rail traffic was minimally

affected and was restored again within

hours. Then in June of 2025, the

Ukrainians reported that they had

secretly planted and detonated

explosives beneath the bridge along

several of its underwater support

structures, [music] but the damage

inflicted was minimal and only resulted

in the halt of traffic on the bridge for

a few hours. The bridge has more or less

remained open to both vehicle and rail

traffic ever since then, but the

repeated Ukrainian attacks on it did

force the Russians into restricting the

bridgeg's use. After the 2022 truck bomb

attack, the Russian authorities

introduced a ban on any trucks carrying

a payload of more than one and a half

tons in most commercial vans from

utilizing it in order to prevent another

similar attack and also reduce the

reliance on large fuel shipments by rail

across the bridge to eliminate the

presence of potentially flammable

materials on it. It's still being used

as a logistics corridor by the Russians

in a Crimea, but the bulk of Russia's

heavy freight routes were transferred

towards the web of roads and railways

across the land bridge through occupied

southern Ukraine and on board fairies

instead with airbased logistics

effectively having been shut down since

the start of the war due to both sides's

advanced anti-air systems. And as

Ukraine's drone technology and

innovation continued advancing with the

help of Starlink and US-made AI powered

Hornet drones, their increasingly

capable fleet of mid and longrange

drones eventually enabled them to begin

reliably and consistently attacking all

of these alternative supply routes into

Crimea as well. Since April of this

year, the Ukrainians have launched

hundreds of mid-range drone attacks

against Russian trucks carrying fuel,

ammunition, and supplies all along the

strategically critical R280 highway that

connects the Russian mainland to Crimea

through the occupied cities of Marupole,

Malipole, and Chongar onwards towards

the major Crimean cities of Symphopole

and Sevastapole. And besides for

targeting Russian trucks and railways

themselves, the drones have been

dropping numerous small landmines all

along the highway that weigh only 500 g

that have magnetic or motion sensors

that are blowing up additional trucks

later. The Russian occupation

authorities like to call this highway

the Novaria highway, but lately the

Ukrainians have increasingly begun

referring to it as the highway of death

instead.

By June, Ukraine's third special

battalion claimed to have taken full

aerial control over the stretch of the

highway between Molapool and Chongar

accompanied by videos of dozens of

exploding and burning Russian trucks

that they had taken out with their

drones. The bridge itself from Chongar

leading into Crimea was struck by

Ukrainian drones at least three separate

times in June alone, critically damaging

it and forcing the Russians to switch

traffic across a pontoon bridge nearby

instead. Then around 50 of Russia's

trucks carrying fuel and ammunition that

were diverted away from Chongar through

the Paricopismas were then further

struck by Ukrainian drones on the 11th

of June as they were attempting to cross

through Ardian. All in all, since this

new Ukrainian mid-range drone campaign

began ramping up in May, Ukrainian drone

strikes had managed to hit virtually all

of the land-based entrance points into

the Crimean Peninsula. From the bridges

over the North Crimean Canal in the

northwest that lead over the ismas of

Paracop to the Chongar bridge in the

center to the Henny Chensk bridge in the

east that leads into the Arabet spit and

all across the R280 highway of death

stretching all the way to Molita. The

result is that by midJune, the Ukrainian

414th Unmanned Strike Aviation Brigade

reported the Russia's military cargo

traffic along the R280 had crashed by an

astonishing 71% over a period of just 2

weeks. Satellite images have also

captured the scale of the damage on

these bridges that the Ukrainian drones

have inflicted, such as this image

captured over the Chongar Bridge in

central Crimea from midJu. This image

captured over the Henny Chesk bridge

leading into the Arabet spit from late

June. And this image captured over the

Stavke bridge that runs over the Crimean

Canal leading into the ismas of Paracop.

And these have been far from the only

logistical targets that the Ukrainians

have begun targeting around Crimea

recently. Around the Kirch Strait

between Russia's Cranar, Cryan occupied

Crimea. Ukrainian drone operations have

targeted oil depots on either side of

the strait in Kirch and Kavkaz that

Russia is historically relied upon to

supply Crimea and the whole southern

front with fuel. While on the 21st of

June, Ukrainian drones managed to hit

three out of the five Russian vehicle

fairies that travel across the street

that were set ablaze as well,

effectively shutting down Russia's ferry

service between the mainland and Crimea

in the process and severing yet another

one of Russia's vital supply arteries.

and satellite images once again managed

to capture the scale of Ukraine's recent

drone attacks here too. In this image

taken over the Crimean side of the Kur

Strait from the 22nd of June, you can

see thick billowing smoke from the

burning oil storage tanks in Kirch that

were struck by Ukrainian drones. While

you can see white smoke emanating out

from the Crimean bridge itself, which is

a new defense mechanism that the

Russians have developed to try and

obscure the bridge from drone attacks.

Smoke generating vehicles will drive out

onto the bridge during drone attacks and

start blowing smoke to try and hide the

bridge as seen more clearly by this

image where you can actually see the

smoke blowing vehicles on the bridge

doing their thing. Fuel storage depots

and power lines across Crimea itself

have also been repeatedly targeted. And

the end result of all of this is that

Crimea is not only increasingly running

out of fuel and supplies, but it's also

running out of possible supply routes to

get more fuel and supplies in,

especially with the tight restrictions

on trucks and fuel that are still in

place along the Crimean Bridge, too.

[music] Crimea is indeed getting

steadily transformed by the Ukrainians

into an island [music] surrounded by war

and fire, and it is already beginning to

have devastating consequences for the

Russian military and government. With

fewer and fewer supply routes in a

Crimea being reliably open and with more

storage sites getting struck, the

availability of fuel in the peninsula is

becoming increasingly scarce. Gasoline

began being rationed in Crimea by midmay

that led to miles long lineups at gas

stations, which led to Russian tourists

visiting Crimea from the mainland

bringing their own gas and jerry cans

with them. One of these tourists

reported to the Washington Post in

midJune that they witnessed cues at gas

stations in Crimea reaching more than 8

hours long. And then shortly afterwards

in late June, the Russian occupation

authorities in Crimea took the most

drastic step yet by temporarily banning

all fuel sales for civilians in the

peninsula entirely, reserving anything

left exclusively for the military and

essential services. The biggest sign yet

of just how dire the fuel crisis in

Crimea has got it. And the day after

that announcement was made, even further

restrictions on civilian life in Crimea

came into force. The Russian installed

governor of Sevastapole, the largest

city in Crimea home to more than 500,000

people, announced multiple new

supposedly temporary restrictions in

light of this difficult situation,

including the closure of all public

transportation after 10 p.m., the

closure of all large shops and cafes

after 8:00 p.m., and even the shutdown

of street lights in order to conserve

energy. Residents have even been urged

by the authorities to turn off their air

conditioners despite temperatures in

Sevastapole reaching nearly 30° C or 86

Fahrenheit. Energy blackouts across

Crimea become increasingly frequent that

are also disrupting water supplies that

rely on electrical pumps. While the

occupation government even just banned

the use of riding mopeds and motorbikes

at night due to their noise supposedly

hindering defenses against Ukrainian

drones. [music]

All sporting events, summer camps,

competitions, and training sessions for

children throughout Crimea were also

cancelled by the occupation authorities,

supposedly due to security concerns, but

really because of the lack of fuel, at

least through the 1st of September as

well. And worst of all for the

occupation authorities in Crimea, all of

this is taking place exactly when Crimea

usually experiences its peak tourism

season. Every summer since the Russians

conquered and annexed Crimea in 2014,

millions of Russian tourists from

elsewhere in the country have visited

the peninsula every summer for its warm

weather, beautiful beaches, and famous

summer camps that date back to the

Soviet era. The escalation of the war in

2022 caused a slight decrease in the

number of summertime tourists visiting

since nobody could visit Crimea by air

any longer. But until recently, the war

was generally kept far enough away from

Crimea. Nearly 4 million summertime

tourists still visited Crimea just last

year in 2025, [music] which was nearly

as high as the pre-war and precoid level

tourist visits were. And most of them

all came in their cars along the Crimean

Bridge across the Kirch Strait. With all

of this chaos going on in Crimea right

now, however, the summer 2026 tourism

season is quickly shaping up to be a

catastrophe. In June, Russian tourist

associations reported a 50% drop in

tourist bookings in Crimea compared with

the month before in May. While booking

in July and August are already down by

more than 30% compared to a year ago,

which will inevitably the

crucial summer holiday economic activity

in Crimea that the local occupation

government and residents always rely on.

On the 26th of June, when the occupation

authorities in Crimea formally declared

a state of emergency across the

peninsula, thousands of cars packed with

tourist and residents attempting to all

flee at once triggered a massive 15

kilometer long traffic jam on the

Crimean side of the Kurt Strait Bridge

leading back to the Russian mainland.

One of the most visible attempts at a

mass exodus [music] out of Crimea yet

seen during the whole war. The

consequences of the logistical lockdown

that's now plaguing Crimea is also

affecting the Russian military's

operations further to the north along

the front line as well. The Crimean

Peninsula with all of its storage sites,

depots, arsenals, airfields, and

military bases along with its proximity

to the Russian mainland has been able to

support the Russian army's offensives in

southern Ukraine for years now. But with

the peninsula becoming increasingly

locked down by Ukraine's methodical

drone campaign, more and more of

Russia's supply routes will have to be

shifted away to the more vulnerable and

exposed landbridge in the north instead.

This is critical because stretching a

truck supply route even by an additional

80 to 100 km will reduce the volume of

supplies that a truck can transport by

30% a day, which directly results in the

Russian military being able to mount

fewer and fewer assaults along the

front. The longer that Crimea is locked

down from a logistical perspective, the

weaker that Russia's military operations

in the occupied regions of Hersan and

Zaparisia will become. Even Crimea's

ability to serve as an air base is also

becoming increasingly degraded as

storage sites and launchers on the

peninsula are increasingly becoming able

to be targeted by Ukraine's [music]

drones. It's even been reported that

Russia's mobile air defense teams in

Crimea tasked with shooting down the

drones are [music] also having to ration

their fuel, which is reducing their

ability to stop the attacks from getting

even worse.

And all of this is increasingly becoming

a disaster of legitimacy for Vladimir

Putin. The way that Russia was able to

seize control over Crimea virtually

without any bloodshed in 2014 was widely

viewed as Putin's greatest geopolitical

triumph in Russia. It became the

keystone symbol of Russia's resurgence

to great power or even superpower status

in [music] the 21st century. and it

provided Putin with a great deal of his

mandate to rule and popularity with the

Russian people. Now, however, with

Russia's grip on Crimea proving to be

increasingly tenuous, [music] Ukraine is

applying tremendous amounts of pressure

on Putin. If Ukraine manages to make

Russia's control over Crimea unviable,

and regular civilian life on the

peninsula difficult or even impossible,

then the Ukrainians will gain major

leverage in any future negotiations on

ending the war with the Kremlin. Crimea

is almost certainly not returning back

to Ukrainian control again anytime soon,

and the Ukrainian military is still a

long way from being able to mount a

successful attack to retake it by force.

But apparently, instead, the Ukrainians

can actually keep making both life and

military operations in Crimea

increasingly unviable through this new

mid-range drone campaign that is

systematically destroying all of

Russia's supply routes into and out of

the peninsula. And so far, the Russians

haven't been able to figure out a

successful enough counter measure. If

the situation continues, pressure would

build on Putin to escalate or negotiate

or risk a humiliating mass population

exodus from Crimea like it seemed was

taking place near the end of June when

the state of emergency was declared and

there was that 15 km long traffic jam

leading to the only bridge out. And if

there isn't a ceasefire, then the

pressure on Putin will just keep on

building and building as this once great

symbol of Russia's restored imperial

power continues withering away under the

mass of Ukraine's relentless drone

attacks. For now, Crimea indeed appears

to have been transformed by the

Ukrainians into an island surrounded by

war and fire. Ultimately though,

figuring out and solving the

geopolitical crisis in Ukraine will

likely be as difficult going forward as

it's already been for more than a decade

since Russian troops first marched

across the border and seized Crimea in

2014. But something that is very much

figured out on the other hand is what

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