Full Transcript

·YouTLDR

He Sold Everything... Here’s What He’s Buying

1:11:1912,542 words · ~63 min readEnglishTranscribed Apr 27, 2026
0:03

Graham Stefen built his entire brand on

0:05

real estate, becoming the voice of

0:07

rental property investing on YouTube,

0:09

starting with a small $59,000 house

0:12

renovation and turning that into a

0:13

multi-million dollar empire. And now

0:16

he's selling it. Not one property. He's

0:18

not trimming his portfolio. He's selling

0:20

everything. And at the same time, he's

0:22

shutting down businesses, selling his

0:24

forever home, and essentially

0:25

simplifying his investments across the

0:27

board. When someone like Graham Stefen

0:29

walks away from the thing that made him,

0:32

you pay attention. What does he see that

0:34

everyone else is missing? Today on Dumb

0:36

Money, he sold everything and we're

0:37

going to show you what he's buying.

0:40

>> This is Dumb Money Live.

0:45

>> Hey there, Dave here along with Chris

0:46

and Jordan. We are Dumb Money. Welcome

0:47

to Dumb Money Live. Quick reminder, if

0:49

you don't mind, uh, smash the like

0:51

button for the almighty algorithm.

0:52

Graham would be very proud if you smash

0:54

that for us. Uh, thank you guys for

0:57

joining us this morning, especially

0:58

those of you trolling us in the live

1:00

chat for delaying this episode not once

1:01

but twice. Technical difficulties

1:04

scheduling on our end. You might you

1:06

might tell Chris is remote right now.

1:08

He's he's many time zones away in Hawaii

1:12

right now. I don't know if you can uh

1:14

fill us in on anything that you're

1:16

working on there.

1:18

>> Yeah, I'm uh I'm here for a reality type

1:22

I guess YouTube show. Uh, you had the

1:25

pick, Dave, that floating platform in

1:28

the middle of the ocean they built.

1:29

>> I haven't. I'll I'll try to pull that up

1:30

and we can we can show a little bit more

1:32

about what you're doing later in the

1:34

show. Yeah. But we do want to talk to

1:36

Graham Stefen selling everything. He

1:39

posted this video that got 240,000 views

1:41

on YouTube and a post on X that just

1:44

went crazy viral. Uh, 3.6 million views

1:47

so far. It's all about why he's selling

1:50

all of his remaining uh rental

1:51

properties in LA. uh and he he goes into

1:55

the financial reasons, the non-financial

1:57

reasons, the kind of broader context of

2:00

uh uh real estate in California,

2:03

but the thing we're most interested in

2:05

is what he's doing with the proceeds. Um

2:07

because he gives a lot of financial

2:09

reasons. We've been saying this for

2:11

years, real estate, it's it's it's

2:13

messy. It's timeconuming. It's not

2:16

liquid. Uh, and Graham finally realized

2:18

that his net cash flow after all of his

2:20

expenses and taxes, insurance,

2:22

maintenance, all of that, he's only

2:25

making like four to 5%. Which he says is

2:28

like, why am I why am I taking all of

2:30

this extra time and energy to do what I

2:33

could do with a Treasury bond, right?

2:37

>> Yeah.

2:38

>> Yeah. So, um, when you guys sent all

2:40

this stuff to me, I don't actually watch

2:43

Graham. So, like I thought that he was

2:45

like a I thought he was like a dividend

2:47

investor guy. I didn't realize he did

2:48

real estate. Is that bad?

2:50

>> It's It's been a while since uh you've

2:52

you've uh hung out with Graham. No,

2:54

Graham is the buy and hold S&P and he he

2:58

got his start in real estate and

3:00

continues to manage or or continued to

3:02

manage a bunch of properties in LA. Uh

3:06

but he's just buy the S&P and hold the

3:08

S&P and he's changing that. He's he's

3:11

he's come out with a whole new strategy.

3:13

So I we have things to talk about,

3:16

>> but basically LA real estate is not

3:18

passive. It is, you know, people talk

3:21

about passive investments. It is

3:22

anything but.

3:23

>> Oh, Dave, no real estate is passive.

3:26

Jordan, by the way, Graham makes you

3:28

look like a degenerate gambler uh in

3:31

terms of how conservative he is with his

3:32

money, which I always have thought was

3:35

just ridiculously too conservative. This

3:37

is this is such an awesome thing when I

3:39

saw that note go out because, you know,

3:41

every time we're around him or I I'm

3:43

always obviously,

3:45

you know, promoting get more aggressive,

3:48

dude. Get get into the stocks. Get

3:50

leverage, dude. get it. And I I felt I

3:52

felt like the transition was happening

3:54

even before he sent that note out. And

3:57

when he when he did the post, I was

3:59

like, "Yeah, it finally happened." But

4:01

>> full disclosure, Chris and I have been

4:03

on his podcast a couple of times. Chris

4:06

is on it all the time. And you are

4:08

continuously telling him, "Get more

4:10

aggressive. You are, you know, these are

4:12

your investments are basically you're

4:15

you're 95% in cash." Why? Well, the last

4:18

time I was there, he f he he he bought

4:20

Amazon at 197 right at the low. And he's

4:26

>> I know. And I think that's part of it.

4:28

Like he's just like, "What if I would

4:30

have been doing this a long time ago?"

4:32

But here's the thing. This is this is a

4:34

conversation. It's an argument that

4:36

we've been having with so many people

4:39

and so many friends for the last 20

4:41

years. And quite honestly, it was a

4:43

harder argument back in the day because

4:46

most of the appreciation, and I don't

4:48

think people truly understand this, I

4:51

don't even want to say most, but a good

4:53

chunk of the appreciation in buying

4:56

houses and renting them out for cash

4:58

flow. It's all about the the increase in

5:02

value of that home over time. It's not

5:04

about the actual cash flow because more

5:07

times than than not, the cash flow that

5:10

you're generating from a rental property

5:12

that you purchased is so much lower than

5:16

you think it is, okay? Because of

5:18

maintenance, vacancies, capex, uh,

5:21

surprises, property management fees.

5:24

There are a million things that will

5:26

eventually dent your cash flow and your

5:29

returns in residential real estate. And

5:32

when you really dig in deep with guys

5:34

that have been doing this for like 20

5:35

years and they're close to you, they

5:39

will whisper to you and they will admit

5:41

that after all the repairs, after all

5:44

the maintenance, all they're all like on

5:46

the edge of getting out of it like

5:47

because like it's not what you think it

5:49

is. They're like we we're actually

5:50

making our money

5:52

>> based on the appreciation of the real

5:55

estate. So even if the cash flow is zero

5:58

with when you account for the

5:59

maintenance and all the headaches and

6:00

all the BS you got to deal with. Even if

6:02

that's zero, they're still making like

6:05

singledigit mids singledigit returns on

6:08

the appreciation. But guys, and and

6:10

yeah, the dream on paper is that that

6:12

your renter pays for all of your costs

6:15

and then some and then you're going to

6:17

make this big bank when you actually

6:19

sell the property at some point in the

6:21

future. But in a market like LA, the

6:23

appreciation has not really been on the

6:26

trajectory that historically it has

6:28

been. So it's it's like

6:29

>> well really from what I understand the

6:31

benefit is the leverage, right? So you

6:33

can buy a property, you leverage 80% of

6:36

it and your renter is basically paying

6:40

off that 80%. And so that that's where

6:42

you make your money even if the value of

6:44

the property doesn't go up.

6:47

>> Well, you get all that debt paid for.

6:50

But Jordan, that's that that's that's

6:52

hidden risk, right? And this is what

6:55

we're talking about. Like I think real

6:58

estate gives you the illusion of safety

7:01

because it's tangible.

7:03

>> But the reality is is once you get into

7:06

that game, you're taking on a lot of

7:08

leverage usually. And when

7:11

>> a ton of leverage, nobody goes out

7:12

that's in this game and just pays500

7:15

or $700,000 for a rental house. they put

7:18

down, you know, $100,000 and the rest of

7:20

it's debt.

7:22

>> Correct. Um, but there there is a

7:26

tremendous amount of risk in that

7:28

leverage, especially when things go

7:30

wrong, the market reverses, you're still

7:32

having to pay for repairs and at some

7:35

point you even get trapped in these

7:37

homes that you have leverage in. It is

7:39

that that kind of like that black swan

7:41

risk that real estate investors don't

7:44

fully appreciate because it doesn't come

7:46

around that often. But the risk is real.

7:49

It's there. You are in a levered asset

7:52

that's completely eliquid. Okay? An

7:56

eliquid asset that you cannot get out of

7:59

quickly at all. Real estate looks really

8:02

safe, but often you're just hiding that

8:05

risk in the leverage and the illiquidity

8:08

that you have in that asset. And for two

8:10

decades, I've been telling people, yeah,

8:12

real estate's okay compared to doing

8:14

nothing with your money, but compared to

8:17

equities, you're not even playing the

8:20

same game. If if you would have taken

8:22

all that money that you were putting

8:23

into real estate and all that time and

8:25

you would have just thrown that into

8:27

aggressive equities over the past, dude,

8:29

I don't care. You're always winning with

8:31

equities. And guess what? Equities gets

8:33

you your life back. You have a 100% of

8:35

your time. Like, you're not doing any

8:38

work. There's no stress. Fully liquid.

8:41

Like, it it is insane to me that people

8:43

just their whole life is on the real

8:44

estate track as opposed to the equity

8:46

track. I love I love that even the

8:49

biggest real estate guy ever who's been

8:51

preaching this is like, I'm done. And I

8:53

know LA is the worst of the worst in

8:55

that market, but still, it's the same

8:56

way across the country. Dave, we have

8:58

real estate friends here in Texas.

9:00

They're they're doing the same thing.

9:01

They're getting out of real estate into

9:03

equities. Same exact thing. Well, if you

9:05

just do the math and look at your what

9:07

your returns would have been if if

9:09

Graham went back and looked at what he

9:11

would have done if he had sold all of

9:13

his properties in 2020 or in

9:16

2018, you know, it just it and all of

9:19

the the mental energy and stress that

9:22

went into what he actually tried to do

9:25

in LA was uh it was just

9:29

the numbers would be uh way different

9:32

had he had he taken our advice. long

9:34

ago. That's all that's all I can say.

9:37

>> So, my my four things that I want all

9:39

the real estate guys uh to know that are

9:42

kind of evaluating real estate versus,

9:45

you know, investing in equity, right?

9:48

With equity, with public market

9:50

equities, you get liquidity plus

9:53

optionality, and that always wins. Okay?

9:56

You can buy and sell anything instantly.

9:58

You have all of your liquidity. um you

10:01

have true compounding versus trapped

10:03

equity in real estate meaning the

10:05

equities are going to compound cleanly

10:08

with dividends price appreciation real

10:10

estate returns get eaten up by all the

10:12

vacancies the maintenance affairs the

10:14

property

10:14

>> manage financial instruments you can

10:16

hedge your investments also and

10:18

>> you're right you could you could always

10:19

hedge and it's really easy to hedge you

10:21

Jordan you have time leverage uh with

10:24

equity with stocks you have no

10:27

operational load with real estate it's a

10:29

full-time job or part-time job unless

10:31

you outsource it, which is again is

10:33

going to kill your returns and your

10:36

>> I rented a house out once and it was the

10:38

worst. It was the worst. I mean, it was

10:40

like it was it was phone calls on the

10:42

weekends, you know, it was constant

10:44

problems. It was something went wrong

10:46

with the house, so now we've got to

10:47

write a big check to a plumber or

10:49

whoever to come fix problems. You have

10:52

none of those issues with an equity.

10:54

Like people are going to call you and

10:56

say, "Hey, Jordan, you own a thousand

10:58

shares of Amazon. Uh, we need you to,

11:00

you know, we need to,

11:01

>> we need you to come repair the warehouse

11:03

door. The warehouse door is stuck. We

11:05

need you to come deal with that for us,

11:06

Jordan.

11:06

>> That's right.

11:07

>> But, but Jordan, the real estate guys

11:10

will never talk about that because they

11:12

don't they want it to seem like they're

11:14

in this great investment and they don't

11:15

want people to know how hard they're

11:17

working or all their until they do until

11:19

they come out and then when they crack

11:20

and they start telling you all this

11:22

stuff, they admit that man, I wish I

11:25

just never got involved in this because

11:26

it's not what I thought it was. But the

11:28

by the way the fourth thing is very

11:30

important simply better risk adjusted

11:33

returns. Okay you know broad-based

11:35

equities generally returning 10% uh

11:39

annualize over the long term. Real

11:41

estate looks safer but the truth is that

11:44

those returns are like mid to high

11:48

singledigit but roughly half of those

11:50

returns are from price appreciation. And

11:54

now that we're in a world where you can

11:56

no longer count on the price

11:58

appreciation coming from just everything

12:00

goes up up up in real estate, we've seen

12:02

that that's not true. There is a real

12:05

risk factor there that your total

12:07

returns for all the work and all the

12:09

risk and all the ili liquidity is low

12:13

single digits. Like you're doing all of

12:15

that for low single digits when you can

12:17

be getting double to maybe triple in the

12:20

market where your only work is on your

12:23

phone. You could be doing it from the

12:24

beach. You could be doing it from

12:25

anywhere in the world, right? You're not

12:28

a landlord.

12:28

>> Yeah. The other problem is you got

12:29

really big liquidity lumps, right? So,

12:32

um you know, when you sell a house, it's

12:34

a really big event, right? It could be

12:37

$500,000. It could be a million dollars

12:39

um that you're having to take out. Maybe

12:41

you didn't need that. Hey, with stocks,

12:43

you can just sell some. You just sell a

12:45

little bit, whatever you need.

12:47

>> You You're right. And listen, there's

12:48

all these unexpected things that are

12:50

happening now. And part of the reason

12:51

why real estate is getting crushed is,

12:54

you know, the cost to replace an HVAC

12:56

unit today versus eight years ago.

12:59

Massively more expensive. The cost to

13:02

basically do anything in terms of

13:04

maintenance and repairs on your home is

13:06

so much higher right now than it was 5

13:09

to 10 years ago. And these things are

13:12

absolutely crushing the guys that have

13:15

20, 30 houses out there that the bills

13:17

are coming in and the margins on what

13:20

you're making in that ROI are not large

13:24

enough to to handle the bump in in cost

13:28

of ownership for these landlords. It's

13:31

it's terrible.

13:33

So, I I love it. I love it that like

13:35

Graham came to that conclusion

13:37

completely on his own. And I it's not

13:40

just him. It's so many real estate guys

13:43

that I know that are doing the same

13:45

exact thing right now. They're they're

13:47

moving into the markets.

13:49

>> So, let's talk about what he's doing

13:50

with the proceeds because we are very

13:54

still very different than Graham. Graham

13:55

is still super conservative compared to

13:58

us. And if you guys haven't yet

14:00

subscribe to Graham's newsletter, I

14:02

would highly recommend it. It's

14:03

completely free. You can find it from

14:05

his expost. I subscribe and I have

14:09

broken down his exact portfolio and

14:12

we're going to reveal all of that and

14:14

we're going to compare it to ours, the

14:16

the exact percentages of of where he's

14:18

allocating his money and how we allocate

14:20

our money. So, I a little tease, but

14:23

he's basically he's passive. He's uh

14:26

diversified. He's, you know, he's always

14:29

been that S&P 500 buy and hold investor

14:32

and he still does a lot of that, but

14:33

he's he's starting to diversify a little

14:35

bit more. So I think that's that's

14:37

interesting and we need to talk about

14:38

that.

14:40

>> Uh let's see. Go ahead. Hit what is it?

14:42

What does he got?

14:43

>> So and and it's a long article so I've

14:47

summarized it so I don't don't have to

14:49

uh like parse through it but basically

14:51

Graham is going to be 40 to 45% in

14:56

stocks and generally that is S&P 500.

14:59

Those are US equities.

15:01

>> Now let's compare that to to us. I am

15:06

usually 110% in stocks because I use

15:09

margin to buy stocks and then

15:12

occasionally options on top of that.

15:14

Chris,

15:15

>> uh, I have to check my balance. I've

15:17

kind of come off margin a little bit.

15:20

Dude, I am not I'm being really really

15:24

conservative right now. This is actually

15:25

nuts. Oh, I guess I'm I'm not accounting

15:28

for the options though that I have.

15:30

Okay, just in terms of equity, I'm

15:31

obviously always at least 130% equity to

15:35

200% equity. So, at this moment, I'm

15:38

kind of at 140% equity, which is really

15:42

conservative for me. But that doesn't

15:45

include uh stock options that I have,

15:48

which you know, I have, as you guys

15:51

know, I've been playing Amazon options

15:54

for the last few weeks like a complete

15:57

degenerate.

15:59

and it's worked in my favor, but I have

16:02

anywhere between I would say five and

16:07

15%

16:09

maybe maybe at one point it was as high

16:11

as 20% of my entire liquid portfolio was

16:15

in Amazon options. So, and these are

16:18

options that are like at the money

16:20

expiring in a week or two or three. So,

16:24

you know, if Amazon goes down $1, I lose

16:26

10 to 20% of my entire portfolio. That's

16:29

how confident I've been in Amazon.

16:31

>> You're so leveraged that on the most

16:34

conservative day you're 130% and

16:36

sometimes you're 500%.

16:38

>> 200%. But if you add the options in

16:41

Yeah. I mean, you start adding the

16:42

options, I think you can make an

16:43

argument that I'm 300%

16:46

uh 300% equity

16:50

>> between between the equity, the the

16:52

margin, excuse me, between the equity uh

16:55

the margin balance and then the options

16:58

300%. Is at at my most degenerate

17:01

moments.

17:04

>> That's uh pretty pretty insane. And I

17:07

think this would be the time that you

17:08

say you're not a financial advisor and

17:11

this is not something that anybody at

17:13

home should try to play along with.

17:14

>> I mean, look at me. Who who would want

17:16

to copy trade this guy? You got to be

17:18

out of your mind. Uh, no. No. This this

17:22

is this is about our risk risk

17:23

tolerance. And if you've been watching

17:24

the show the last seven years, you know

17:26

that Jordan's risk tolerance is the

17:27

polar opposite of mine. Dave sits

17:29

somewhere in the middle. I don't know.

17:31

Graham probably I didn't think it was

17:33

possible, but Graham like is is beyond

17:35

where Jordan is in terms of

17:36

>> It sounds like he's um way less

17:39

aggressive than I am.

17:41

>> So, how aggressive are you right now,

17:43

Jordan?

17:43

>> Me? Uh yeah. So, what I tend to do

17:48

>> um is I keep about Chris is going to

17:52

freak out when I say this. I keep about

17:54

a decade of cash.

17:56

>> Oh jeez. So, a decade worth of living

17:58

expenses in cash and then I invest the

18:00

rest. Um,

18:03

you know, what percentage does that

18:05

shake out at? Uh, well, the market's

18:07

been going up, so less now. I don't

18:09

know. Probably I'm probably like

18:15

80% invested. Um,

18:18

but I also have I also, you know, I I do

18:21

stock options and stuff like that too in

18:22

an aggressive account. So that that

18:25

would push that up, you know, in uh in

18:28

notional, but

18:29

>> yeah, but somewhere around 80%.

18:31

>> Yeah, but I like I like to keep a

18:32

healthy cash position and it's not cash

18:34

cash. It's in a you know, it's in a

18:35

money market that returns

18:37

>> whatever four something percent.

18:39

>> And we we'll talk about cash because

18:41

that is a big holding for for Graham and

18:43

not such a big holding for me and Chris

18:45

and a decade worth for you, Jordan.

18:48

>> All right. You don't want to know what

18:49

mine is, Dave? I I I do have some cash

18:52

in my bank account. I

18:53

>> Yeah. How much cash do you have in your

18:54

bank account?

18:55

>> I keep between three to six Well, about

18:59

I'd say two to six months of cash is

19:01

what I have. And I've been really

19:04

fortunate the past four years to have

19:07

one of the greatest cash flowing

19:08

businesses on Earth. Uh a Pokemon trade

19:11

show called Collecticon. For those that

19:13

you have been following me, you know, we

19:15

started this about four and a half years

19:16

ago. It is it started in the back of a

19:19

banquet room of a hotel. Uh, I'm an

19:23

owner of Collecticon and a founder with

19:25

my three business partners. And if you

19:28

kind of Google Collecticon right now,

19:30

you can read the press release or the

19:31

Hollywood Reporter uh, news article that

19:34

came out a few days ago. We sold the

19:36

company to Ari Emanuel uh, and you know,

19:39

the same kind of entity that owns like

19:41

what WWE and and uh, MMA and all that

19:45

stuff. So, I no longer have any cash

19:49

flow coming from Collecticon. And by the

19:52

way, it has been

19:54

>> that was going to be I was going to talk

19:55

about that after the show because that

19:57

deserves a huge congratulations. Your

20:00

your sale of Collecticon. Uh we people

20:03

have been talking about it in the uh in

20:04

the live chat already.

20:06

>> That congratulations. You you've now uh

20:10

>> surpassed a new milestone. Well, well,

20:14

Dave, it is the biggest exit I've ever

20:15

had from a private company. And quite

20:17

honestly, it's how I've been able to be

20:19

so aggressive on Amazon the last few

20:21

weeks because I knew there was like a 70

20:24

then 80 then 90% chance of the deal

20:26

closing. And I was like, worst case

20:28

scenario, half of the money I make on

20:31

this deal is wiped out because I lost

20:33

out on those Amazon calls. But I

20:35

wouldn't have been as aggressive on

20:37

Amazon without knowing that that big

20:39

chunk of money was coming in. It did

20:41

close. It's awesome. And like it feels

20:44

great, but now I need to make that money

20:46

grow because my cash flow, guys, has

20:49

gone down by like 90%. My restaurants do

20:52

pretty well, but listen, restaurant bars

20:55

don't cash flow that much. Uh, so now

20:59

I'm back to the pulling money from my

21:01

brokerage account every couple months,

21:03

two to three months to support my

21:05

lifestyle, which Jordan, that would

21:07

drive you nut. You do the same thing, I

21:09

guess, Jordan, don't you? You have to

21:10

pull money because you don't have cash

21:12

flow. You You haven't had cash flow in a

21:14

long time, right?

21:15

>> Like cash.

21:18

>> Yeah, I know. So that's why you're so

21:19

conservative. I'm in the same boat as

21:21

you now.

21:22

>> I don't have my cash flow engine

21:24

anymore. Collecticon is gone.

21:26

>> So now I I I need to think about that

21:31

more intently. At least

21:32

>> I've been in that boat for a while.

21:34

>> You could buy the You could buy some

21:35

dividend stocks.

21:37

>> Uh well, no. I'm not doing that.

21:41

>> I'm not I'm not doing that. You know,

21:43

the way I think about my my my equities

21:45

is I always assume that it will go down

21:48

by 70%. So, the number in my head when I

21:51

look at my portfolio, I subtract 70%.

21:54

And that's the number and as long as I'm

21:56

comfortable with that number, I'm I'm

21:58

good.

22:00

>> Yeah. For me, I think about it like um

22:03

everything liquid, I feel comfortable

22:04

with it going down 50%. But that's

22:06

including a large

22:09

uh money market fund. But I so what I

22:12

think about really is that the 10 years

22:14

of cash is a let's say that we had like

22:16

a 2008 style happen right now.

22:19

>> I should have enough cash to get me

22:21

through without having to sell any

22:23

equities for that decade trough.

22:25

>> But you if you can afford that that as

22:28

such a like a mind you your mind can

22:31

just be at ease with that for me.

22:33

>> That's right. Yeah. I'm totally at ease

22:35

with the with them. If the market went

22:37

down 50%.

22:39

I would not think about it.

22:41

>> But then actually reduce your 10ear

22:44

runway to five years and put more uh of

22:46

your

22:46

>> Well, I would do that too. Yeah. So that

22:48

it's cash to put to work too, right?

22:50

>> But our stocks did go down 50% basically

22:53

a month ago. Like my portfolio was down

22:55

40%. The whole thing.

22:57

>> Oh, my portfolio was down like I mean

22:59

inclusive of everything like 5%. Oh,

23:02

Jordan, when my portfolio was down 40%,

23:04

that is when I double triple down on

23:07

>> I bought I didn't go insane, but I

23:09

bought when when the market dropped like

23:11

10%. I dro I bought a bunch of stuff.

23:14

>> The best buy that I had was ARM. Uh the

23:16

thing was up 30% since I bought.

23:18

>> But you didn't change your allocation

23:19

towards equities like like you're not

23:21

deeper in equities now because of that

23:23

drop.

23:24

>> Yes.

23:24

>> Oh, you are. Okay. Good. Good.

23:26

>> But you still have a 10ear runway in

23:28

cash. Huh?

23:30

>> But you still have a 10-year runway in

23:32

cash.

23:32

>> Yeah.

23:33

>> Even after Dave, there's a caveat though

23:36

that we're not thinking about with

23:38

Jordan. When he says 10 years of cash,

23:41

people don't actually understand how

23:43

little cash Jordan uses. He is the most

23:46

frugal. He's literally on gram level in

23:48

terms of frugality of lifestyle. He is

23:52

one of the most frugal lifestyle guys I

23:56

have ever known. He tweaks his sprinkler

23:58

system to save like $4 a month. Okay.

24:01

Like like Jordan, I don't even want to

24:03

know what you spend a month. It has got

24:04

to be so low. It is completely

24:07

ridiculous how cheap you are.

24:09

>> I I have a bit high. I probably don't

24:12

have as much expense as you do, Chris,

24:14

but I um think I'm in in between in

24:16

between you two, but I try to keep a

24:19

one-year buffer in my checking account

24:22

at all times just because. And I use my

24:27

uh I use the stock market as my cash

24:30

flow engine. So I don't I don't need an

24:32

actual cash flow engine. I'm just making

24:34

enough money in the stock market that I

24:36

keep replenishing and have a nice buffer

24:38

in my checking account.

24:40

>> I I think I'm in the same boat as you

24:42

now for the rest of my life, Dave. I

24:43

don't think I'll ever have cash flow

24:45

like I had the last four or five years.

24:48

Um

24:48

>> it's the way to do it. It's so much It's

24:50

so much better. I highly recommend it

24:52

now. Okay. So Graham is 45%ish

24:56

in US stocks. He's 25% in cash and

25:00

treasuries. But his biggest increase

25:03

here is international and emerging

25:05

markets. He is increasing for

25:06

diversification. He's seen strong recent

25:09

performance uh of 26% versus the S&P 16%

25:13

hedged against US stagnation with higher

25:15

growth potential from AI adoption and

25:17

lower baseline economies. He is putting

25:19

28% of his portfolio in international

25:23

emerging markets. How does that compare?

25:25

>> That is first of all, that is quite the

25:29

move for someone like him. That's really

25:32

aggressive.

25:32

>> Aggressive to me.

25:35

>> I Okay, so Jordan, I haven't gone in

25:39

deep on due diligence, but this is

25:41

actually a trade that I'm interested in.

25:44

If you really think deeply about AI,

25:47

automation, robotics,

25:50

how the world economy is going to change

25:52

over the next 20 years, there is a case

25:55

to be made that third world countries to

25:59

some extent will see some of the biggest

26:01

lift. Uh develop at least not maybe not

26:03

fully third world but like developmental

26:06

stage countries. I I saw a report that I

26:09

haven't had the time to read yet that

26:11

said Brazil was in the pole position to

26:15

benefit from the AI super cycle the next

26:19

couple of decades. I want to spend a lot

26:22

of time doing research before I make

26:24

that move. I'm assuming he has already.

26:28

It's interesting, guys. It It's really

26:30

interesting because all of a sudden,

26:32

you're democratizing intelligence.

26:34

You're democratizing the ability to, you

26:38

know, manufacture, right? You're

26:40

democratizing essentially everything.

26:42

And once you do that, you're getting rid

26:45

of the edge that you have or or third

26:47

world developmental stage countries are

26:49

able to do things that they could never

26:51

ever do because they just didn't have

26:54

the the intelligent population to

26:57

actually put things in motion. where in

26:59

an AI age

27:02

>> that intelligence just exists and it's

27:04

just freely available for any

27:06

government, any company, right? Like to

27:09

come in and and meaningfully improve uh

27:13

an economy. So I it's it's interesting.

27:16

I haven't done it yet.

27:18

>> It's something that I actually have done

27:20

and I've done it through ETFs instead of

27:23

trying to pick individual random stocks

27:24

in a market that I know nothing about.

27:27

>> Yeah, you can't. And a lot I mean like

27:30

trying to trade individual stocks

27:32

internationally on a large scale is

27:34

really hard.

27:36

>> Yeah. And so that it to me that's just

27:38

the easy button way of doing it where I

27:40

can I can be in that section of my

27:44

portfolio I would imagine will I I'm I'm

27:48

hoping grows faster than the S&P section

27:51

of my portfolio, but who knows? Um, but

27:54

I'm I would say I'm generally between

27:58

zero and 10% in international. Uh, I own

28:02

a property in Mexico, so that is not

28:04

really an investment, but that is a

28:07

chunk of money sitting in a developing

28:09

country. Um, but now I uh I'm

28:14

comfortably

28:16

10 to 15% in these emerging developing

28:21

international markets.

28:23

Jordan, are you in any at all?

28:25

>> What? International equities?

28:26

>> Yeah,

28:27

>> of course. Yeah. Um

28:29

>> like like developmental countries like

28:31

not just

28:32

>> Yeah, I mean China. So we got like C Web

28:34

um

28:37

>> ETF. Oh, at some point we need to come

28:40

back around to this subject uh when

28:42

we've done the research because it's an

28:44

interesting play here.

28:46

>> I think it's a Yeah, I think that could

28:47

be a whole show in itself. And speaking

28:50

of whole shows, Chris, I've noticed you

28:53

uh didn't retweet this episode.

28:56

>> Thank you, Dave. I'm I'm on I'm on

28:59

Hawaii

29:00

>> time here and my just not thinking.

29:03

>> We'll let you do that while we talk

29:04

about uh the next big chunk of Graham's

29:08

portfolio because that that pretty much

29:10

accounts for most of it. But he is

29:13

shifting from a tiny position to a

29:15

meaningful asymmetric bet on in

29:18

institutional inflows, ETF adoption,

29:21

debt uh deficit hedging on Bitcoin. He

29:26

is increasing likely to 10 uh 5 to 10%

29:29

of his portfolio allocated in Bitcoin.

29:34

>> We've kind of been in that low to high

29:37

single digits Bitcoin for a long time.

29:40

I'm at the lowest I've ever been in

29:42

Bitcoin. I want to say it's like 1% of

29:46

my portfolio right now. I'm not against

29:49

bring it up to two, maybe 3%.

29:53

But I don't necessarily I think there's

29:55

just too much opportunity in equities

29:57

right now with this AI super cycle.

29:59

There's I don't want to have money

30:01

sitting in an asset that's not directly

30:04

touching that super cycle.

30:06

>> Yeah. I mean Yeah. Yeah. Um, and with

30:09

Bitcoin, I'd rather just own assets that

30:11

are like Bitcoin related

30:14

coin like I've got Coinbase. I've got,

30:16

you know, um,

30:19

>> see, I actually do own Bitcoin. I've

30:21

I've held it for a long time. I I'm

30:23

holding it through this crypto winner,

30:25

although I did, uh, sell it and reby it

30:27

for the, uh, for the tax loss

30:30

harvesting. Uh, I am currently sitting

30:33

at 12% of my assets in crypto, primarily

30:36

Bitcoin. That's a lot, Dave.

30:39

>> Of my liquid investable assets.

30:41

>> Still, that sounds like a lot. I feel

30:44

like that's a lot even for you. It

30:46

>> is a lot. It is. I'm I'm more aggressive

30:49

than Graham on this. And you are the

30:51

least aggressive I've ever heard you

30:52

being in it

30:54

>> at 1%.

30:55

>> It when I become less excited about the

31:00

equities in my portfolio, I think I

31:02

would be open to having a larger Bitcoin

31:05

position. It's just I'm way too

31:09

hyped on this kind of we're still early

31:12

stage AI. I think the opportunities are

31:15

meaningful. I'm I'm leveraged and I just

31:18

want my money in other places right now

31:20

at least. I I think there's more upside

31:22

right now. But I don't know. The Bitcoin

31:26

people are gonna want a lot of Bitcoin.

31:31

>> How much uh how much are you in uh

31:33

CryptoKitties these days,

31:35

>> dude? I I've exited, you killed this,

31:37

all all of my NFTts are are are have

31:41

were sold uh shortly after the NFT

31:44

market started to come down. I I I'm net

31:46

positive on my NFT journey. The only

31:49

ones I kept are the ones that are super

31:51

special to me that I won't sell at any

31:54

price. Not that it matters anymore

31:56

because they're pennies on the dollar,

31:58

but but I love them and it was part of

31:59

that part of my life. And uh

32:02

>> but you haven't sold your Crypto Punk.

32:04

>> Well, no. I I h I do have a few crypto

32:07

punks and I think I am more likely to

32:11

buy more than to sell over the long

32:12

term. I think crypto punks will come

32:14

back. I know you think I'm nuts. I think

32:16

they will come back at some point in

32:17

time. It could be 15 or 20 years.

32:19

>> I can't tell you how glad I am to not

32:21

hear about NFTTS every day.

32:23

>> You hated those episodes so much,

32:26

Jordan.

32:26

>> I hate everything about NFTTS.

32:29

>> He He thought we And we were a little

32:32

insane. I was a little insane. a little

32:34

insane. I was I think I was very

32:37

levelheaded on that knowing that

32:40

anything I put into an NFT is flushing

32:42

money down the toilet, but there's some

32:44

fun in owning. I have one Crypto Punk. I

32:48

have uh that Logan Paul uh project. I

32:52

have I I still have uh the Polaroids

32:55

that have NFTTS attached to them. Well,

32:58

well, now the new man, all the guys that

33:00

were into that are now into uh the

33:03

pre-199

33:05

Japanese manga magazines. There's like

33:08

four that that's where all the appro

33:09

Dude, they're up like 700% in six

33:12

months. Okay, that's where you want to

33:14

put your money buying those manga. Now,

33:17

I think Graham's going to get into

33:18

you're going to get into this because

33:19

some of his stuff is in collectibles.

33:21

I'm actually kind of cautious on the

33:25

collectible market, but that pre99

33:29

Japanese manga that all the influencers

33:32

and content creators have been

33:35

accumulating, that is interesting. If I

33:38

was going to be in a collectible right

33:40

now, that's where I'd be putting my

33:42

money. Um, because they they just became

33:45

great. For those of y'all that don't

33:47

know, like the history of comics, right?

33:50

comics were kind of like the baseline IP

33:53

for all the Marvel movies and all the

33:56

cinema that we saw on on on all that

33:59

stuff, right? Superman, this that, all

34:01

that for 30 or 40 years. Well, now the

34:04

new hot thing is Pokemon and One Piece.

34:09

Well, the the base IP for how all those

34:12

things came to life were basically a few

34:16

years, like four or five years of these

34:18

Japanese manga uh like magazines or like

34:21

really thick magazines and and they were

34:23

basically worthless up until, you know,

34:26

this last year and people started

34:28

collecting them because they were graded

34:31

gradable for the first time. So now for

34:33

the first time this last year, the big

34:35

grading services will actually grade

34:37

these mangas the same way they do with

34:40

like comic books or Pokemon cards. So

34:43

you're seeing a massive lift in the

34:45

valuation and attention to Japanese

34:47

manga. So yeah, that that's kind of the

34:49

insiders alpha on collectibles right now

34:53

>> coming from the guy who just sold

34:55

Collecticon. That's that's some good

34:57

scoop. I might not have any alpha a year

34:59

from now, but I I I just sold this thing

35:01

a week ago, so I still have some alpha.

35:03

I'm still on the inside. Uh that and and

35:06

I think dinosaur bone dinosaur bones. A

35:09

lot of these guys are I I These guys are

35:11

crazy with their dinosaur bones. That's

35:13

another thing they're all buying, right?

35:15

>> I almost bought a dinosaur bone when I

35:17

was on vacation one time.

35:18

>> Like a real dinosaur bone.

35:20

>> Yeah, like a like a fossil.

35:21

>> Shouldn't that be a museum or something?

35:24

>> No, you're supposed to. Yeah. I I I

35:26

don't I do not own, if anyone's

35:28

wondering, I do not own a fossilized

35:30

dinosaur. There's not one in my house.

35:32

>> I don't think they have to be in the

35:34

museum. No, you could you can collect

35:35

them.

35:36

>> No, you can. And actually, you can if

35:37

you if you discover it and you dig it up

35:39

yourself, you can absolutely uh keep it.

35:42

>> Yeah.

35:42

>> This is the age of abundance that we're

35:44

talking about.

35:45

>> So many pieces, right? Um

35:48

>> I want a fully assembled T-Rex in my uh

35:51

in my atrium. That's that's what I

35:53

really want. It might it might fit

35:56

there.

35:56

>> You can you you can absolutely

35:58

>> like wrap around, but

36:00

>> yeah. No, not not at the in my Mexico

36:03

house because it has a doublestory large

36:06

20 by 20 room that uh I I would really

36:09

like to have a T-Rex there.

36:11

>> Oh, in the Mexico house.

36:12

>> Mhm.

36:13

>> Oh, okay.

36:15

>> Uh so I don't have any collectibles.

36:17

Chris, do you still have any uh Pokemon

36:19

cards or any anything that you would

36:21

consider collectible?

36:23

Yes, I have some stuff. So, because I

36:26

was having to do all these all these uh

36:28

collect collect shows the last five

36:30

years. So, I was traveling the country

36:33

basically just a thousand tables trading

36:36

Pokemon and all this other stuff. I

36:38

decided at one point in time that I was

36:41

going to corner

36:44

uh the market for uh there's these

36:47

Disney cards that came out and I

36:50

basically corned the market for Elsas.

36:52

So I have like more of these Elsa cards.

36:55

We're talking like six figures of Elsa

36:58

cards and I'm thinking about kind of

37:01

diversifying out of that. I also have

37:04

some sports card stuff that I want to

37:06

get out of. I'm actually not a big

37:08

believer in sports cards. I think that,

37:12

you know, they peak and trough based on

37:15

the age of the collector who was most

37:18

interested in those years of sports. So,

37:22

I don't love it as a long-term

37:23

investment. I'm just not a even though I

37:26

own Collecticon, I'm not a collectibles

37:28

guy. Like, I'm just not uh you know what

37:32

I like. I like

37:33

>> you surprised me all the time with

37:34

collecting uh cornering the market on

37:37

Elsa cards.

37:38

>> I It was

37:39

>> I would have never I would have never

37:40

guessed that about you.

37:41

>> I was bored and I had to spend so much

37:44

time at these shows. I just figured I

37:47

might as well get into something. And

37:50

there is a new Frozen movie coming out

37:53

in like 18 uh two years, a year or two.

37:57

And I think that will be the perfect

37:59

exit window uh for this Elsa collection

38:02

that I have built up over the past few

38:04

years. So, so we we we'll see. I mean, I

38:08

was just doing it for fun on the side,

38:11

but I'm getting out of all collectibles

38:13

now. Now that I'm out of collect, I'm

38:15

I'm getting out of all collectibles. I'm

38:17

done.

38:17

>> So, Graham Graham says that his uh

38:20

percentage of portfolio, it's just a

38:22

small hobby for him. collectibles uh are

38:25

basically passion assets that that do

38:28

have potential ROI like his 2005 Ford GT

38:31

is up 65%. Uh but he's very selective uh

38:36

analog uh he he's into Disney sells

38:39

supercars that sort of thing. Uh but it

38:41

is not something that he considers a uh

38:43

core to his investment portfolio. Um but

38:48

he does enjoy the drive for free

38:49

appreciation of his collectible

38:51

vehicles. I think he loves them though.

38:54

I think the thing is when you

38:55

>> He does and his his garage and his his

38:58

new space is basically all garage.

39:02

>> I listen if if you get enjoyment out of

39:05

collectibles and the appreciation if it

39:08

happens is just a bonus for you, right?

39:10

So I I I get why people love doing that

39:13

stuff. It's just it's just not for me.

39:16

My collectibles are are are stock

39:18

tickers or option tickers.

39:21

That's was what I like to call

39:23

>> you collect stocks. I collect stocks and

39:25

then I trade them out for different

39:27

stocks when I when I get bored with one.

39:29

>> Boom. And you you could see

39:30

>> so much it's so much more intuitive to

39:32

me.

39:32

>> Yeah. I can't even think about owning

39:33

cars. Like I'd rather just own

39:35

companies.

39:37

>> Yeah.

39:38

>> I get no enjoyment out of cars though.

39:40

To me, I look at a car and I'm like gh I

39:42

got to drive somewhere car.

39:44

>> I only enjoy ownership if it fits inside

39:46

of my phone. If I can't I don't want

39:48

physical

39:49

>> I don't want physical anything.

39:51

Okay. So, this last category for Graham

39:54

and this is uh this is one that I think

39:55

is interesting for us to talk about

39:59

because of our history with it. Private

40:01

equity. Graham says that he is

40:03

minimizing and exiting private equity.

40:06

It he calls it a big regret. Uh he says

40:09

it's illquid. It's a tax hassle. There's

40:11

discounts on the on exits. Now, he's

40:14

going to avoid anything that is not

40:16

tradable within weeks. I've heard some

40:19

things that private equity that there's

40:20

like a there was a big private equity

40:22

boom and that there's going to be a real

40:26

problem when these private equity firms

40:27

start trying to turn out of all the

40:30

different rollups that they've done. Um

40:32

I you know I I don't know what they do.

40:34

Do they have to try to take them public

40:36

now? Do they um you know I think they're

40:38

running out of other firms to sell them

40:40

to.

40:42

To me, that's kind of the biggest risk

40:44

of private investing in general. When

40:47

there was a market for it and people

40:48

were and there like there was new rounds

40:50

and there's always an opportunity to

40:51

sell. That's one thing. We're not in

40:53

that world now, right?

40:54

>> And other than somehow going public, all

40:57

of these things that are sitting in my

40:59

balance sheet of private investments are

41:02

basically written down to near nothing.

41:04

>> But some of these things seem really

41:06

weird to go public. Like there are

41:07

private equity firms who specialize in

41:08

like dentist offices, right? And so

41:10

you're going to send public like a

41:13

random collection of family dentist

41:14

offices.

41:15

>> I feel like those are just cash flow

41:17

businesses for the

41:18

>> Yeah. You just hold on to them and flow

41:19

the cash.

41:19

>> Yeah. And hopefully they pay dividends

41:21

at some point.

41:22

>> Yeah.

41:22

>> But at some point you have to return uh

41:24

money to to the equity holders in the

41:26

private equity fund.

41:27

>> Well Well, first of all, when we use the

41:29

word private equity, it means so many

41:30

different things. I I think the the

41:32

private equity that you're referring to,

41:34

Jordan, where they're essentially

41:36

aggregating dentist offices or vets,

41:39

>> I I think that's still probably a great

41:41

business. I think it's going to generate

41:42

great returns uh for people that are

41:45

invested in that type of private equity.

41:47

But the private equity has expanded so

41:50

much the last 10 or 15 years because

41:53

there's been so much money pumped into

41:55

the sector that they're getting outside

41:58

of their wheelhouse and they're just

42:00

starting to throw money into sectors

42:02

because they have so much money. And the

42:05

problem with any private investment is

42:08

that when you're going through a period

42:09

of time like we are now with this AI

42:11

super cycle, the world is changing

42:14

faster than we've ever seen it change.

42:17

And if you're invested in a business

42:18

that you can't get out of, that business

42:21

might lose its relevancy or the e the

42:24

the economic conditions that that

42:26

business operates under might radically

42:29

change due to something like AI. So

42:32

there is a big chunk of the private

42:34

equity sector that's invested in

42:36

businesses not understanding that the

42:40

world was going to change so quickly and

42:42

a lot of these businesses might get

42:43

their valuations destroyed the same way

42:46

that we've seen SAS valuations get

42:48

destroyed in public equities. The

42:50

difference is they can't exit. So if you

42:53

don't like being in Salesforce and

42:56

you're like this is a risk that we're in

42:58

this AI age, you could have just sold

43:00

your Salesforce three months ago or six

43:02

months ago. But if you have the

43:04

equivalent type of holding inside of a

43:06

basket of private companies in a private

43:08

equity fund, you can't necessarily get

43:11

out of that. And that's that's the

43:13

issue. It's similar to what we were

43:14

saying about real estate. People don't

43:17

fully appreciate how amazing liquidity

43:20

is in public equities. I've been

43:23

preaching this my entire life. The fact

43:25

that you can radically change in and out

43:28

of all of your portfolio in a

43:31

millisecond at any moment in time is so

43:36

valuable and people just underappreciate

43:38

how valuable that is except during times

43:41

like this. because we have a close

43:43

friend that was invested in one of what

43:45

the largest most prominent uh private uh

43:50

real estate uh funds in the state of

43:54

Texas, right? So all the big money

43:56

historically has been thrown into these

43:58

huge real estate funds where they would

44:00

own real estate all around the world and

44:02

they would develop properties. Well, we

44:04

saw what happened to commercial real

44:06

estate the last five or six years.

44:08

Massive freeze on commercial real estate

44:10

for a number of reasons. Part of it due

44:12

from work from home, part of it due to

44:14

escalating interest rates, uh part of it

44:17

due to uh construction cost uh

44:20

accelerating beyond what anybody thought

44:22

was possible. So, a lot of these funds

44:25

that were considered somewhat safe went

44:28

belly up. And we have a close friend

44:30

that literally lost a 100% of his m of

44:33

his money across all of the funds that

44:35

he had invested through this massive

44:37

institutional real estate, commercial

44:40

real estate. uh fund company, right? And

44:43

that's just not something that any of

44:44

these investors thought was possible and

44:47

they couldn't exit. There was no way to

44:48

get out.

44:49

>> Yeah.

44:49

>> Right.

44:50

>> Now, okay, there there's a new form of

44:52

investing. A question from the chat.

44:55

This is uh Nate wants to know what you

44:56

think about the Robin Hood Ventures

44:59

Index, which is which is a fund

45:01

basically. Uh and I bought it and I'm up

45:04

20% in it since it launched. Um it is

45:07

basically it buys startup companies. uh

45:10

preipo like datab bricks, revolt, maror,

45:15

airwalls, boom, supersonic, ramp, aura.

45:19

>> Wait, do they own actual shares?

45:21

>> They own Yeah, they own actual shares or

45:24

various uh instruments that represent

45:26

shares and you can buy it and sell it.

45:30

>> You say various instruments that

45:32

represent shares

45:33

>> or like SPVS and things. Um

45:35

>> yeah. Yeah,

45:36

>> they they may not because shares may not

45:39

actually exist or they may have a

45:40

contractual uh right to buy the shares,

45:43

that sort of thing.

45:44

>> I think I think it came from a good

45:46

place in that Robin Hood and Bahad are

45:49

frustrated that

45:52

regular investors, right, retail

45:54

investors get locked out of latestage

45:58

private investments, right, and then

45:59

they have to wait until the company IPOs

46:01

and they have to buy.

46:02

>> I think everybody should be frustrated

46:04

by this that Yeah. the public companies

46:06

you have access to is a fraction of all

46:09

of the cool companies that are out there

46:11

right now. Look, if and think about if

46:13

Andre were a public company right now,

46:15

what it would be doing, right?

46:16

>> Of course. But but Jordan,

46:19

>> I mean Dave, I would like it better if I

46:21

could just invest in individ individual

46:23

companies as opposed to the fund. What I

46:25

do love about it, I don't know the exact

46:28

terms, but I believe there's a 0% carry.

46:31

So, he's doing no carry on it, which is

46:34

very different from if you want to try

46:36

to get into those companies through a

46:38

private fund and you're paying a 10 or

46:40

20% carry. So,

46:42

>> so they have they have a an expense

46:44

ratio of 2.13%

46:46

until August and then a management fee

46:50

uh

46:51

>> uh of from 2 to 1%.

46:54

>> Annualized,

46:56

>> I believe. So, I' I'd have to more into

46:58

the details. It It seemed

47:00

>> reasonable. It was not like a 2 and 20

47:03

>> or 10 and 20.

47:04

>> It wasn't just a fee. It's just an

47:06

annual fee.

47:07

>> Yeah. normally you'll pay that fee plus

47:10

a 20% carry. So, at least he's not doing

47:13

a carry and and and that and that's

47:14

great. The difference I think is that

47:17

like I like to know the companies I'm

47:20

investing in and and I want to I don't

47:22

love investing in just like a blanket

47:25

>> a basket. Yeah. Yeah. A basket. Like I

47:29

>> you like to be able to pick and choose

47:30

your stocks, but these are stocks that

47:32

are not stocks that you can't buy

47:34

otherwise. And it's an interesting

47:36

concept to me to uh to allow individuals

47:39

to invest. And like I said, just full

47:41

disclosure, I did buy it. Uh and my

47:44

buying it has no impact on the price

47:47

because it's these priced elements

47:49

within it. And yeah.

47:52

>> Um yeah, I'm I'm neutral on it. Like I

47:55

said, I I want to pick individual stocks

47:57

and I want to be able to lever in and

47:58

out of them and quickly and all that

48:00

stuff. Uh,

48:01

>> I wonder if I wonder what the

48:02

maintenance rate if I can actually

48:04

margin on top of this.

48:06

>> That would be interesting.

48:09

>> Um,

48:12

what else guys? Is that his whole is

48:14

that his whole portfolio then?

48:16

>> That is his whole portfolio. Um, he

48:18

wants to be liquid. He wants to not have

48:21

any California real estate overall. He's

48:23

wants to be more aggressive on equities

48:25

and Bitcoin uh with less cash drag,

48:28

simpler liquid portfolio.

48:30

uh and he basically just wants fewer

48:32

moving parts. He doesn't want to have to

48:34

deal with uh returns that that are being

48:37

killed by expenses and taxes.

48:40

>> Did he mention a triple leverage ETF in

48:42

there?

48:43

>> He didn't mention that that I that I saw

48:45

the one the one that my entire

48:48

>> allocation to triple Q.

48:50

>> I I keep my entire uh retirement

48:52

portfolio in a triple leveraged uh ETF

48:55

at all times. whole thing. The whole

48:57

thing. I only keep 20% of my retirement

49:00

portfolio in that triple leverage ETF.

49:03

I listen Dave, we did the research on

49:06

it. Like on paper, theoretically,

49:11

we shouldn't lose all of our money and

49:13

it should theoretically generate 2x

49:15

returns even though it's a triple

49:17

leverage ETF after fees. Uh it should

49:20

generate about 2x returns theoretically

49:23

over the long term. uh if we don't have

49:26

the biggest crash in history and even

49:29

then

49:30

there's a chance it can come out and it

49:32

would likely recover it and

49:34

theoretically give us

49:35

>> theoretically because it's already gone

49:36

up so much that it would recover. Now I

49:39

I misspoke. I'm not 100%. I do have uh

49:43

some Robin Hood shares in that as well.

49:45

I I'm in I'm primarily in the leveraged

49:47

fund, but I do have some Robin Hood

49:49

shares that I think were given to me for

49:51

moving money to Robin Hood, but

49:54

otherwise it's fully in a leveraged ETF

49:57

currently in the leveraged uh uh UPRO,

50:01

which is uh the S&P 500. Uh I the one

50:05

thing I I I wish you know Graham would

50:07

do at some point and I wish a lot of

50:09

people would do publicly is talk about

50:12

having that higher risk higher reward

50:16

big money bucket separate account. Yeah.

50:20

Where they are investing in options

50:23

right and they are investing with

50:25

leverage. Maybe you know they're they're

50:27

in that triple leverage ETF. they're

50:29

maybe they're taking, you know, they're

50:30

buying options on high conviction trades

50:33

like what I did with Amazon the last few

50:36

weeks. Um, if you bucket that money

50:39

totally separately and just designate a

50:42

different type of money to go into that

50:44

bucket knowing that it could

50:46

theoretically get wiped out. I think

50:49

everyone needs to have that and it's

50:51

just frustrating that we we still don't

50:53

think that way as retail investors. We

50:55

still lump all of our money together and

50:58

we're afraid to take these big risks

50:59

because guys, what happened with me and

51:02

Amazon the last few weeks, as I've been

51:04

saying, you get one call right like

51:06

that. I I did it last year with Nvidia,

51:08

remember? And Robin Hood, you do that

51:11

one time in your life. You make one big

51:14

call that you're willing to put the

51:16

money in super leveraged and you get it

51:20

right and you become a top 1% investor

51:22

over your entire life just from getting

51:24

that one call right. That's how big of a

51:26

difference maker it has. and and it

51:28

could be years before you get that

51:31

confident around a particular company

51:34

and a time frame, but you want to have

51:37

money bucketed for that moment in time

51:40

so that you can go all in because like

51:42

you guys know what I did on Amazon. It

51:44

was insane.

51:45

>> It was insane.

51:46

And

51:47

>> your timing on that was uh just

51:50

miraculous and not because you knew

51:53

anything or had any you just you were

51:55

just had a very strong conviction that

51:57

Amazon should go up because of where we

51:59

are in the AI cycle and you just went

52:02

all in

52:03

>> guys when when the market hit its bottom

52:06

and it was the most like the worst of

52:08

the worst weeks. I don't remember was it

52:10

a few weeks ago, a couple weeks ago, uh

52:12

my account was down like 40% and I went

52:15

all in on Amazon options. My Amazon

52:18

options I think were up to as much as

52:22

40% of my entire full portfolio where

52:25

Amazon. So I was prepared to lose

52:26

another 40% of my liquid net worth.

52:29

>> But you had this check coming in from

52:31

Collecticon. You you you took risk. You

52:33

took risk when you had a very high

52:36

likelihood of having a a replenishment

52:39

event for any losses.

52:41

>> But even then, it would have been like

52:43

half of that check if I huge massive

52:47

amount of money.

52:48

>> Okay. So, tell us where where you think

52:49

Amazon goes from here.

52:52

>> We're going to talk individual stocks.

52:54

The the chat has been blowing up saying

52:56

you guys are stop talking about

52:57

collectibles. Tell me about stocks. So,

52:59

let's let's go Amazon. Where does Amazon

53:01

go from here?

53:02

>> I I still love it. I love it just as

53:04

much as I loved it at $198.

53:07

Uh where I kind of went all in. I went

53:09

all in more at like two some 205 and

53:12

then more at 215. It's at what 260 now.

53:15

258. I don't know.

53:16

>> I don't care to 300.

53:18

>> I don't even care.

53:20

>> Susa wants to know.

53:21

>> I'm all in. I'm all in. I'm not

53:23

>> 26343.

53:25

>> What I do, guys, is I continue to roll

53:28

up my options. So I basically take we've

53:30

talked about this in the past,

53:30

>> but you're not you're not still that

53:32

deep like 40% of your portfolio in

53:34

Amazon options. You've

53:35

>> No, because back

53:37

>> what I'm doing is I'm rolling my options

53:39

up. So I'm I'm selling my options. I'm

53:41

taking the profits and then I'm taking

53:44

some portion of those profits to

53:46

purchase new options at a higher strike

53:48

price obviously because Amazon keeps

53:51

going up. So I've essentially

53:54

>> taken the gains. Those are my gains. I'm

53:56

not losing them. I'm taking a part of

53:58

the profits to reup in new Amazon

54:00

options.

54:01

>> What would you just ballpark your

54:03

current Amazon option percentage out of

54:06

your total portfolio?

54:09

>> Uh I would say 5% right now today.

54:14

>> All right. That that may I I'll be able

54:16

to sleep better at night knowing it's

54:17

only 5% and not 40%.

54:20

>> Uh but I could get excited tomorrow and

54:23

it could go up to 10 or 15%.

54:24

>> I know that's that's what worries me.

54:26

All right. What are your What are your

54:28

thoughts on uh Robin Hood near-term?

54:30

>> Love it. Love it. Love it. Oh. Oh. Oh.

54:32

Near-term. I don't have any like super

54:34

strong thoughts on it like this week or

54:36

next week. Love it long term. I love

54:40

being able to buy it down here. I went

54:42

deeper into Robin Hood at 70.

54:44

>> Uh I think I just picked up some more

54:46

calls this morning. So like I just want

54:49

to be heavier Robin Hood, but not for

54:51

the week or for the month. This is like

54:53

I don't I don't know when Robin Hood's

54:55

going to pop again. It could be six

54:56

months from now. I don't care. I want to

54:58

have a bigger position in Robin Hood

54:59

long term.

55:00

>> You're in long. You're in for the long

55:01

term on Robin Hood. I'm in Robin Hood

55:03

for the long term.

55:06

>> Let's talk about AMD.

55:08

Michael Levescu. I'm I can't read these

55:11

names. It's too small.

55:13

>> Um, yeah, I have AMD. It's part of my AI

55:18

sector trade. I have a handful of

55:20

companies like Micron, AMD. I don't I

55:23

think I accidentally sold my Intel. It

55:25

makes me sick because I like I was

55:26

running out of money and I needed money

55:28

because my margin was capping out on

55:30

that Amazon trade. So, I was forced

55:32

>> like what is what is the what is the

55:34

dirtiest name in my portfolio? Intel.

55:36

>> Yeah. Well, it's just like

55:38

>> and then it just rocketed.

55:40

>> I had to I had to pick something and I

55:42

picked Intel to sell and of course

55:44

Intel's flying. Uh I have AMD, listen,

55:48

great. Like it's part of my sector, my

55:50

AI super trade, but it's not the one I'm

55:52

going heaviest in on. Uh, Micron. I I

55:55

love I love all of the uh memory

55:57

companies. Did you guys have you did you

55:59

see uh uh

56:00

>> SanDisk keeps just going crazy?

56:04

>> Uh Raku, the Japanese company we did a

56:06

show on. Dude, it's almost doubled. It's

56:10

crazy, dude. This is the imaging company

56:12

in Japan that basically uh is a healthc

56:15

care company, but they have imaging

56:17

equipment that they're repurposing to to

56:20

check the circuitry in AI chips before

56:22

they head to the data center. They're

56:24

one of like two companies in the world

56:26

that does this. Uh this the we did a

56:28

whole episode on this I don't know a

56:29

month or two ago and since we did that

56:32

episode the stock is up like 70%. Um

56:36

astonishing. Unfortunately, I couldn't

56:38

get leverage on that. uh because it's in

56:42

a global account, you have to transfer

56:44

into yen. There's no options. You can't

56:46

do margin.

56:48

But I I'm astonished. Uh Gian Shu Dong,

56:51

who is our close friend who tipped us

56:54

off on that trade, he did this like I

56:56

don't know 60page report on Reaku. He

56:59

really nailed it. Gianu nailed it again.

57:03

He's been on fire. He's the He's our

57:04

Bloom Energy guy, too. So, speaking of

57:08

Bloom Energy, too,

57:09

>> uh, see Bloom,

57:11

>> it exploded off of that um,

57:15

>> listen,

57:15

>> off of that uh, expanded contract with

57:18

Oracle.

57:19

>> This is what we've been saying.

57:20

>> It's it's up 55% in the past month.

57:24

>> But this is what we've been saying.

57:25

Bloom Energy is in negotiations with

57:28

every hyperscaler. So, like, when are

57:30

they going to when's the Meta

57:32

announcement? When's the Amazon

57:34

announcement? when is the Google

57:35

announcement? Like the they're what

57:38

they're bringing to market simply has to

57:41

be fully proven. Um, but they are still

57:46

>> and with each announcement it gets a

57:48

little bit more proven and easier for

57:49

the next company to actually take them

57:51

seriously because I think that that

57:52

their biggest problem was kind of people

57:55

not believing their tech and now Oracle

57:58

and then the stock booms up and if we

58:00

get another announcement I I just expect

58:02

that that chart should go up with a jolt

58:06

every time there's a new announcement

58:08

and if not I don't know what I don't

58:10

know what we're doing. The the issue

58:12

with Bloom is it's a super volatile

58:14

stock, right? So any bad news, any even

58:18

P, By the way, Bloom went down to what

58:21

$75 a share on quote bad news that we

58:25

knew was BS. That's why we doubled down

58:26

on Bloom. But

58:28

>> but it doesn't matter if it's BS. If

58:30

there's some rumor or some

58:32

misinterpretation of the market or

58:34

Bloom, people will take that stock down

58:37

so violently, it could drop by 40% in a

58:41

millisecond. So, if you're invested in

58:43

Bloom, you need to be ready for that

58:45

type of volatility. But wow, has Bloom

58:48

performed for us, man. That has just

58:50

been one hell of a call this year.

58:53

Uh, what else people want to know about?

58:55

Troy Baker wants to know if there's

58:57

anything new with Sphere, which is

58:59

another one that uh in the past month is

59:02

up 13%.

59:04

Uh up 430%

59:07

in one year. You were in this heavy for

59:11

uh the Wizard of Oz trade. Are you still

59:14

in it?

59:15

>> I

59:16

>> Anything new? And now I think I'm

59:18

pulling my account up because sometimes

59:20

I don't even know. But I believe I am

59:23

fully out of sphere.

59:25

>> I'm fully out too and kind of regretting

59:27

it.

59:28

>> Well, you know, like I said, here's the

59:30

deal, guys. It was a social arbit trade

59:34

and we entered sphere when there was a

59:37

massive information imbalance in the

59:39

company and we exited it when the rest

59:42

of the world

59:44

learned about what we already knew.

59:47

Okay. So since then the company has gone

59:49

up like 400%. And that's what being a

59:52

social investor is all about. Does it

59:54

mean that Sphere can't continue to grow

59:56

from here? Absolutely not. Um the

59:58

company could but but that's a different

1:00:00

trade. So I need to now understand what

1:00:03

new information do I understand about

1:00:06

sphere that the market hasn't

1:00:07

appreciated or is unaware of for me to

1:00:10

get back into sphere because I'm not

1:00:12

buying sphere as a fundamental you know

1:00:14

investor or as a technical investor. I

1:00:17

only buy and sell things as a social orb

1:00:19

investor. So that's why I'm out of

1:00:21

sphere. My thesis is now well known and

1:00:25

the stock price same listen bloom I

1:00:28

still think bloom is really

1:00:30

misunderstood by a big chunk of the

1:00:32

market. I think bloom if they continue

1:00:34

to execute if uh I think there's a lot

1:00:38

more upside to bloom if the company

1:00:41

executes because I do think they will be

1:00:43

a primary beneficiary of the power trade

1:00:47

for the AI super cycle. So, I don't want

1:00:50

to sell sell my bloom yet.

1:00:52

>> Let's talk about a stock. We talked

1:00:53

about our winners. We always also

1:00:56

address our losers. Let's talk about

1:00:58

TAC, Trans Alta.

1:01:00

>> Uh it currently uh three-month chart on

1:01:03

that it's down two and a almost 3%. One

1:01:07

month it's down 5%.

1:01:10

One year still up 44%. But we were not

1:01:12

in it for that for that rise.

1:01:14

>> But it's up 3% today.

1:01:17

>> Yeah.

1:01:18

>> Yeah. Well,

1:01:19

>> Transalta, uh, they got killed by a

1:01:22

couple things. One, the we were

1:01:24

investing in Transalta because of the

1:01:27

inevitable move of data centers to

1:01:30

Alberta and Trans Alta would be a

1:01:33

primary beneficiary as one of the few

1:01:36

companies that has excess power in

1:01:38

Alberta to partner with data centers.

1:01:40

Right? Then they hit a major delay with

1:01:45

uh their data center deal. The

1:01:47

administration here in the US from my

1:01:50

intel is pressuring all the hyperscalers

1:01:53

not to move into Canada. They want them

1:01:55

here. So that could present additional

1:01:59

delays going into Alberta. Three, they

1:02:01

had an exceptionally warm uh winter in

1:02:04

Alberta which kind of hurt their energy

1:02:07

situation there in terms of pricing. So,

1:02:09

it was kind of like the perfect storm of

1:02:12

bad news. I'm not selling because I

1:02:15

still believe I I think I have exited

1:02:18

part of my position because I needed to

1:02:19

exit partially out of a lot of positions

1:02:22

when my account got destroyed last

1:02:24

month. But I feel that it is an

1:02:28

inevitability uh that data centers will

1:02:31

get into Canada and Alberta

1:02:33

specifically. So, I'm holding the

1:02:36

majority of my position in Trans Alta.

1:02:39

It kind of sucks that we're not

1:02:40

participating in this market move right

1:02:42

now, but I'm not selling for now. I I I

1:02:47

think I I don't know how long it will be

1:02:49

with this administration before they

1:02:51

loosen up some of that rhetoric on

1:02:54

having to build just here in the US, but

1:02:58

I think it's an inevitability. So, it

1:03:00

could be two months from now or or 18

1:03:03

months from now before that story

1:03:05

finally gets to play out.

1:03:08

>> I'm hanging on to it. And uh as a as

1:03:10

just a tracker for knowing uh where this

1:03:13

is since we first talked about it, it is

1:03:16

down 14%.

1:03:18

Because that's what I'm down in. And I

1:03:20

>> People were asking about healthcare

1:03:21

stocks. Um I don't buy healthc care

1:03:23

stocks when tech stocks are exploding.

1:03:27

For me, healthcare is like a recession

1:03:29

stock because people overspend on health

1:03:31

care during recession.

1:03:33

>> So, I bought a healthcare stock. Jordan,

1:03:35

>> you did?

1:03:36

>> Yes, I did.

1:03:37

>> Which one?

1:03:37

>> So, it's a it's a s You know how

1:03:39

everyone's talking about this SAS

1:03:41

apocalypse, right? All these SAS

1:03:43

companies are getting destroyed.

1:03:44

>> Eliminated. I was trying to figure out

1:03:47

which of these SAS companies that got

1:03:49

destroyed, if any, do I actually like

1:03:52

long term that I that I think is

1:03:53

relatively protected from AI. And the

1:03:58

company I settled on was Viva Systems,

1:04:02

Vev.

1:04:04

um they are I mean you could research

1:04:07

them but they are basically in the

1:04:09

healthc care world and I think because

1:04:13

they sit in that world I think there's

1:04:15

simply more hurdles more regulation the

1:04:19

moat is larger I think the degree of

1:04:23

safety and trust that's involved in

1:04:26

anything that touches that sector is

1:04:29

going to make it more difficult for pure

1:04:33

artificial intelligence frontier model

1:04:36

companies to come in and disrupt the

1:04:38

space. So they got beaten down along

1:04:40

with all the other SAS companies and I

1:04:44

like them. So I I opened up I mean pull

1:04:46

the chart you could see look at that.

1:04:48

Wow. They literally got basically cut in

1:04:51

half by 50%. I took a position in the

1:04:54

last couple weeks. So we'll see it's a

1:04:56

long they're basically a cloud uh cloud

1:04:58

provider for the health sc life life

1:05:02

sciences industry.

1:05:03

>> Yeah. You see I don't really view that

1:05:05

as like a healthcare stock. When I think

1:05:06

healthcare stocks I'm thinking you know

1:05:09

like uh you know any of the any of like

1:05:12

UNH or uh you know

1:05:15

>> okay I I'm talking more

1:05:16

>> hospital stocks um HCA those types of

1:05:20

stocks. But we believe that the entire

1:05:24

sector is going to massively grow over

1:05:28

the next couple decades because of the

1:05:30

aging uh population. Right, Jordan? So,

1:05:33

>> I'm not saying that I don't like

1:05:34

healthcare stocks. I'm just not buying

1:05:36

any right now when tech stocks are going

1:05:38

insane. Whenever they roll over,

1:05:39

whenever tech stocks, you know, have

1:05:41

their next freak out and we're all

1:05:43

recession doom and gloom, then I might

1:05:45

buy some healthcare. But that's why I

1:05:47

like Viva Systems because they they they

1:05:49

got cut by 50%. Right? They got cut by

1:05:52

50%. They are a technology company that

1:05:55

I think long-term actually has some huge

1:05:58

tailwinds as more money gets pumped into

1:06:02

the entirety of the health care sector

1:06:04

with the aging population. So I I think

1:06:08

with with reg the regulatory environment

1:06:10

it gets really tricky Jordan when you're

1:06:12

talking about United Healthcare and all

1:06:14

these other you know insurance

1:06:16

companies. What is the government going

1:06:18

to mandate? I I have no clue. But I'd

1:06:21

rather be in a technology company there

1:06:23

that that's going to benefit from the

1:06:25

expansion of that sector that's somewhat

1:06:27

I think protected

1:06:29

>> from the regulatory environment. And

1:06:31

that same regulatory environment

1:06:33

actually might protect them a bit from

1:06:35

pure AI type companies that aren't fully

1:06:38

proven out touching patient data, you

1:06:41

know.

1:06:41

>> Yeah, I think that's good.

1:06:43

>> So related to healthcare and probably

1:06:46

the topic for an entire episode on its

1:06:48

own, but how do we invest in the peptide

1:06:51

trend? Josh wants to know.

1:06:53

>> Check back with us next week when we do

1:06:55

our peptide episode of Dumb Money. That

1:06:58

is going to be a good one, guys. This

1:07:00

peptide trend is no longer a trend. It's

1:07:04

officially a super cycle just like AI.

1:07:07

This is going to be one of the biggest

1:07:11

movements I think of the decade. Uh it's

1:07:15

unstoppable. It started just with kind

1:07:18

of rich guys talking about peptides from

1:07:22

their doctor kind of getting doing stuff

1:07:25

that no one else even knew about. And

1:07:27

now it's starting to scale out and

1:07:30

become democratized to where

1:07:32

>> it's gone ex mainstream and it will be

1:07:34

the thing that is on the Today show in

1:07:36

two months. And so we we definitely want

1:07:39

to get in early.

1:07:40

>> Guys, let me tell you this is no joke.

1:07:42

The the peptide trade is real. Uh we're

1:07:45

going to dive really deep into the

1:07:46

peptide peptide trade next week. We are

1:07:49

in the earliest stages of uh the

1:07:53

commercialization of peptides. I I look

1:07:56

at this moment in a similar way to when

1:07:59

I was talking about GLP1s back before

1:08:01

anybody was talking about GLP ones.

1:08:03

Remember Dave? When we were at the OMIC

1:08:06

trade, people thought we were insane.

1:08:09

I think like 35% of my portfolio back

1:08:12

then was in Eli Liy. Um and

1:08:16

>> yeah, you you were early on Eli Liy. Um

1:08:19

I was later that was that was good.

1:08:22

>> Jordan, I see

1:08:23

>> Novo Nordisk.

1:08:25

No, Novo. Actually, I'll take it back. I

1:08:27

was in Novo before really.

1:08:28

>> Novo was first. I own some Novo right

1:08:30

now.

1:08:32

>> I'm kind of mostly out of that stuff.

1:08:35

Yeah. Again, because the market, not

1:08:37

that it's bad, but the market now fully

1:08:40

understands everything that I understood

1:08:42

about the GLP1 movement back in the day

1:08:45

and how large it was going to get.

1:08:47

>> Um, I think peptides, guys, are

1:08:50

potentially that big. This is such a

1:08:53

massive storyline. We just got to figure

1:08:57

out the trades and

1:08:59

>> let's be mindful of time. We're we're at

1:09:01

an hour and nine and I know that uh we

1:09:04

>> got because I am stumping for

1:09:08

schoolboard elections.

1:09:09

>> Wait, what does that mean?

1:09:11

>> I don't know what that means.

1:09:12

>> Are you gonna be on a

1:09:13

>> So, I'm like out at the at the polling

1:09:15

sites talking to voters.

1:09:17

>> Oh, boy. Yeah.

1:09:18

>> Local politics. Very political.

1:09:22

Love it, man. Love it. Everyone should

1:09:24

get involved in local politics. That's

1:09:26

where people's time should be spent

1:09:28

trying to make a difference, I think.

1:09:30

>> Um, all right. Well, let's hope Amazon

1:09:32

keeps moving here, guys. Amazon earnings

1:09:34

next week. We might need

1:09:35

>> That's right. Oh, we we should probably

1:09:36

do an Amazon episode in addition to a

1:09:39

peptide episode if we, you know, we're

1:09:42

not going to be able to pull that off.

1:09:43

We We can do like one episode a month. I

1:09:47

I love the peptide episode research

1:09:49

because I'm I'm researching it for the

1:09:52

trade, but I'm researching it for

1:09:54

myself. I I I need to get some of my

1:09:56

hair back, man. I I need I I

1:10:00

>> I might be taking peptides, man. They

1:10:03

are the uh it's it's the supplement that

1:10:05

actually works. I

1:10:07

>> I was with a guy yesterday. He was on

1:10:09

this reality show thing with me and this

1:10:12

guy was 57 years old and I swear he

1:10:16

looked 37 tops. I said, "Tell me right

1:10:19

now everything that you're on right

1:10:20

now." And I I have a list I have a list

1:10:22

of the pep diets he's on.

1:10:24

>> Send me the list.

1:10:25

>> I will, man. Cuz like it's

1:10:27

>> You just send you to Brian Johnson's

1:10:28

website.

1:10:31

>> No, this guy was legit. Legit. I could

1:10:34

not believe like I I would do anything

1:10:37

to look like this guy looked. Um so

1:10:40

yeah, this is this will be a fun one. We

1:10:42

do our peptide episode.

1:10:43

>> All right, look for that next week here

1:10:46

on Dumb Money. Everybody have yourself a

1:10:48

great weekend. Oh, little uh view of

1:10:50

which island are you on there in Hawaii?

1:10:52

>> Uh I am on the northshore of Hawaii

1:10:56

leaving imminently. So like this is my

1:10:59

last couple of hours here. I've been

1:11:01

here all week. Uh, I'm I will be home

1:11:05

within hours. So

1:11:07

>> So we we'll see it was we'll see you

1:11:09

soon and we'll see everybody else next

1:11:11

week here on Dumb Money.

1:11:13

>> Thanks.

1:11:15

>> And I have to hit the button twice.

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