🔴 Why Inflation is Going To 25%...They're About to Print $20 TRILLION | David Hunter

People think three and four and 5%

inflation is is hard to handle. Wait

till they see it run like it did in the

early 80s and then some.

>> 25% year-over-year.

>> If you print the kind of money I think

that's going to be printed to deal with

the global bust because keep in mind the

global bust means banking system is

failing. Banking system is starting to

unwind. If they panic and they say we

got to get money in there and that money

first they put shovel in trillions

doesn't stop it. they shovel in more

trillion. I think ultimately you're

going to see 20 trillion out of the

Federal Reserve in new money QE um and

probably proportionally out of every

central [music] bank. So you could have

50 trillion in new money go into the

system.

>> It will trigger demand through the roof

for those things.

>> You're watching Capital Cosm. My name is

Danny. September 10th, 2026, and my

guest today is David Hunter. David, how

are you, my friend? It's been a while.

>> Yeah. Hi, Danny. It's good to see you.

>> Yeah, likewise. Well, um, before we get

started, guys, hit the like and

subscribe if you've not done so yet.

Also, hype the video if you're watching

on mobile and tablet. It really does go

a long way in helping push this video in

the algorithm. So, let's go ahead and

dive into the news here. David, this is

u from today. The PPI

rose 0.4% 4% in August about as

expected. Uh core PPI was up 0.2% softer

than the forecast. On an annual basis

the PPI was up 5.4%.

And it beat expectations by 0.1

percentage points um than the estimate.

So as a result uh we're seeing the

markets sell off. You see see all this

blood here on CNBC right now. Dow Jones

is down. S&P, NASDAQ, uh the metals are

down quite ferociously as well.

Interestingly enough, the bond market is

also down, meaning that yields are

ramping up higher, 4.92 on the US

10-year yield. So, uh David, what do you

make of these uh these new numbers and

how the markets have reacted?

>> Yeah, obviously inflation's kind of um

focused number one, not just today, but

over the last uh month or two. Um oil

prices is obviously a big part of it and

oil's pushing up to 100 bucks. So you

got all those things there. Um like you

said the the number today on PPI came in

pretty much in line. Obviously it's a a

bit high for what they want to

accomplish in getting inflation down but

PPI we know is driven by commodity

price. Commodity prices have been up. Um

so not not a surprise and like I say it

was actually better than expected. So,

um, the market just is a little nervous.

I think they're nervous about Iran and

and oil. Uh, they're nervous about

inflation and and a likely hike at the

September meeting. I don't know if we're

going to get a hike or not, but

certainly the the traders are pricing in

or 70% probability, I think, of a a hike

as of now. Um, so all of that I think

market, you know, I I have to remind

people, um, you know, the market, the

S&P going into today was, you know, off

2% from its all-time high and, um,

probably is off 3% now, but or close to

three. So, but I mean, you throw you

throw a war at it, oil going from high

60s not very long ago to 100.

um you know all the fears of what's

going to happen at the midterms

um you know concerns about uh commodity

prices moving up, egg prices moving up,

etc. inflation

um you know all of that thrown at it and

the market's basically not far off its

highs and and I have to remind people

it's you know the news if you focus on

the news and ignore the market you're

not going to go very far in terms of

performance. you know, it's really I I

think there's a huge wall of worry out

there and the market's absorbing it

pretty well. Um, I think the next step

will be that that wall of worry will be

fuel for the future uh run in the

market. I I've since since we last

talked, I've raised prices on the uh

indexes. So, my my S&P target is now

10,000. Uh my uh Dow targets now 70,000.

My NASDAQ target is 36,000

and that was raised from I think 32 and

my Russell target is is 4,000. So you

know I'm I'm obviously very bullish

here. I don't think this is anything but

just uh you know normal what we see all

the time these two or three or 4%

corrections

um kind of refreshing the posit

refreshes and then you move on up. I'm

not saying that everything's clear

sailing that things can't go wrong but

uh as far as I see the market's acting

behaving very well uh and I'm I'm

bullish. I think you know people think

September October are bad times to be in

the market. I think you're going to find

that this thing's getting oversold

pretty quickly and you're going to have

another run in the market here in in the

next month.

So the S&P is currently at 7500 just

give or take right now. 75.81 a $10,000

price target would take it to you know

that's like a 33% run from where we're

at today. And you know I'm looking at

the CME Fed watch tool here as well.

Right now it's pricing in a a rate hike

of 25 basis points on this month's

meeting uh at 70%.

And so I mean that's not that big of a

deal. Honestly, even if you extrapolate

all the way out to October of 2027,

you're still looking at at most a, you

know, if the current level is is 3.5 to

3.75.

The highest probability target right now

for 13 months from now is what 75 basis

point rate hike between now and then.

>> Yeah. So it does I it does appear like

the market is throwing this out of

proportion which is not unusual for the

markets considering how algo driven it

is as well right you know that's why you

don't trade news right because you're

not going to outperform the algos as a

result but what's the time horizon that

you're looking I mean we just looked at

the CME Fed watch tool they're they're I

mean the probabilities now for next year

is about a 75 basis point rate hike just

about if not less um what's the time

horizon associated with um you know

these market indices that you just laid

out.

>> So if you if you look at all of those

indices I think probably they're they

range from you know like say 33%

probably up to the high30s now uh or you

know at least mid30s depending on the

index. So that's a big run to say you

could see it this year, but I think you

can. I think you could see it in

certainly in the next 3 to 6 months and

I think it's more likely three or four

than it is six. Um so you know it sounds

crazy maybe but I am as I have been

saying for quite a while I am looking

for a parabolic final run into a top you

know secular top. Um, so, uh, if we get

that steep run, you can cover a lot of

ground in a, you know, fair fairly short

time. So, I would not be surprised to

see, uh, a top this year. Uh, and, you

know, if we see that, that's obviously

pretty historic in terms of the run that

we've had for the year and for the, you

know, last quarter. But, uh, I think

that's what we're looking at here. And

again, there's been a lot of nervousness

about um you know, AI. There's been a

lot of nervousness about a top in semis.

You know, they've had such a great run.

Uh I don't see that in my work. I I

think they have another run ahead. Uh

and you're also getting the market

broadening out into things like

financials and materials. Industrials

have been there for quite a while. Uh

they'll continue. So, I think you're

going to have a broad market. I do see

some things starting to show up that are

a little troublesome in the consumer

area. You know, Costco, Walmart, those

kind of things where you could start

wondering whe the consumer is going to

run into trouble here. But I don't think

it's enough to to stop the run into a

top here. I think it's just kind of the

early signs that we are, you know, early

reminders that we are at the end of a

cycle, not not um early in a cycle. uh

and and so you know those things may or

may not you know retail itself when you

look at the sector itself still looks

okay uh but you know some of the the

stocks within it are starting to look

like they may have if not topped out

certainly are starting to run into a

little little uh trouble. So, um, you

know, retail may not be an area that is

is, uh, an outperformer. Certainly, it

may not be a big performer, but some of

those other sectors I mentioned should

should pick up the speed and do very

well.

>> Understood. What about the bond market?

This is the 10-year yield. It has gapped

up today uh, on the PPI release up to

4.92, an eight basis points gap up uh,

on the day. And if you look at this

thing, if we zoom out, let's say 5

years, this is about a this is about

where we were at the last peak here in

October of 2023.

How does this play into the calculus of

the rest of the markets? How do the rest

of the markets interact with this higher

yield here in the bond market and not

just in America, but also everywhere

else, right? Japan, Europe,

>> rates are rising everywhere. Yeah, I

this certainly was not expected by me.

Um, I have been saying for quite some

time that we're we're looking at a a

bottom in bonds and a a top in rates.

You know, three-ear top in rates,

three-ear bottom in bonds. So, going

back to the highs of I think October of

23,

uh, doesn't really bother me. I mean, if

if we kind of do a double top here and

roll over, that that would make sense.

um my you know bonds are extremely

oversold and the sentiment is extremely

bearish on bonds probably of all assets

that's the one that's that's hit the

most. So I I tend to think that we are

going to see this probably we could go

to 5% touch that and go over. He might

even violate 5% just to make a minor new

high get everybody nervous. Um but

ultimately I think we're in a top

formation in rates and that rates are

going to hit a lot lower over the next

year. Um you know I've even said that a

global bust is coming and in that global

bust you could see the 10ear down to

zero. If if that proves true, you're

going from five to zero. That's a huge

huge thing. But, you know, let's let's

see the thing roll over first. Um, but

I'm, you know, certainly today was a

little bit of a surprise. Um, the

reaction to the PPI is what did it, I

guess, and oil prices. You know, oil's

up at $100. Uh, and people are really

nervous about Iran. So, um, but you

know, that's what happens at at major

turning points is things look like

they're they're heading in one direction

and then next thing you know they

reverse.

>> Yeah. So, here is the 10-year yield

again. You know, I drew a line here at

5%. This is the line in the sand, so to

speak. Looks like there's a lot of

resistance here that's been built up

since around 02. Is there any

significance to breaking out of 5% here

on the on the 10-year Treasury yield? um

historically

>> um well certainly if it breaks out with

any gusto yeah I would say that I could

be wrong on rates I don't think that's

the case like I said a you know a

breakout above five you know obviously a

lot of times at turning points uh in

this case we're looking at a top in

rates and bottom and bonds um that

oftentimes you know things move beyond

that resistance or beyond that support

level that was major your support uh

break down and and you get the stops

running, people get nervous and then it

reverses. So, it wouldn't shock me if it

goes above five. Um but it won't be

there very long if I'm right.

>> Gotcha. And how do you see things

playing out in the metals as well? Gold

and silver got hit pretty hard today.

silver uh the hardest hit right now at

the time of this recording at $65 down

about $355 since the release of the news

here. What's your take on um the

forecast? What's your forecast on metals

um in conjunction with your broad market

forecast?

>> Yeah, I I raised my targets uh back in

May, late May, I think. Um on silver and

gold, I raised uh gold to 7,000.

uh I had been at 6,800 I think when we

talked. I raised my silver target to 200

from 180. So I'm I'm still really a big

bull on the metals. Um we we I think we

bottomed you know they silver got down

to 55.

>> Um I forget where gold went down 4,000 I

think. So gold's at 4,400

um plus and silver is at 65 as you say.

Um the bottom silver, you know, month

ago or a month and a half ago was was

55. Um I don't think we're going back

there. I actually think that today is

just kind of a reaction back into um you

know, we we came out of that 55 run, had

a nice run back up to 70 um 72 and

backed off to 64. This one takes you

back there. I I don't think it's

anything significant. I think we'll

resume the upside here pretty soon and

probably be at 90 before too long. So,

um I think the 200 on silver and the

7,000 on gold can be reached this year.

Again, doesn't have to. It could be

first quarter, but you know, it's a 3 to

six month time horizon for me on these

things. And and uh that sounds again

sounds like an awful lot to do in a

short time. But um given what we saw in

silver in and gold in Janu December,

January um I think this next run could

even be steeper.

>> Amazing. Well, the one of the biggest

components of the markets and the master

commodity itself, oil. Oil plays a key

role in input costs and wholesale costs,

i.e. the PPI and transportation cost,

etc. WTI currently trading just a hair

beneath $100 right now at the time of

this recording. Diesel is going skyhigh.

How does this does this not act like as

a deflationary force on the economy

here, David?

>> Yeah, I don't think it's really um doing

that at this point. It could. I mean,

certainly if it if it runs a lot um you

know, it's going to hurt the consumer

and as I say, the consumer is starting

to show signs of of rolling over. I

think so. So, it certainly could. I am

calling for a deflationary bust, but I

don't think it's oil prices that going

to get us there. Um, you know, again,

you look at that chart and there's

certainly a lot of momentum based

chartists that would tell you that this

thing's headed for, you know, probably

140 50. Um, I think it's more of a rally

back into a top, you know, the top we

saw earlier in the spring. Um, and that

it'll roll over from here. We'll see.

Um, but my my call is that we head back

into the 60s over the next several

months and ultimately in the global bust

we can go down into the 30s. So there's,

you know, obviously

straight to Hormuz was a big issue that

got us up there initially. Oil is coming

out. Uh, US is shipping a lot of oil.

Uh, we got the news on Venezuela,

although that's not going to impact

short-term oil. Um, I think that there's

ultimately going to be a glut of oil out

there again once we get things

straightened out in the rand. So, um,

I'd just be careful chasing momentum

here in oil. I, like I said, I I

wouldn't be surprised if we're right

right near an inflection point there,

too. So, that would fit in with a

rollover rate in rates.

>> What if what if a resolution doesn't

doesn't come in Iran? What happens to

oil then? like how does uh from a

scenario perspective?

>> Yeah, I you know obviously if things go

south and we're you know things don't go

well in Iran, it can push oil up. Um,

you know, I'm I'm not necessarily

expecting a resolution between now and

midterms because I do believe there's a

lot behind the scenes of of um the

people on the left, you know, the the um

left left in this country, left

elsewhere, basically pushing Iran to

kind of hold out. I will say a similar

uh thing. You know, Obama went up and

met with uh Carneu I think a couple

months ago. Uh I'm sure the conversation

is about the midterms here in the US.

That's why at the last moment I think we

saw the blow up on tariffs in with

Canada. You know, they had a deal. They

had things going along fine and then

Carney at the last minute said, "Nope,

we're not going along with that." And it

was supposed to be, you know, best deal

we've offered in a long time, I think,

to Canada. So, I think they're just

playing games. And I I I think as as

awful as it sounds, I think the left in

this country is also communicating to

Iran, you know, just just keep messing

messing with Trump until the midterms.

We, you know, after that, if you need

to, you know, do what you have to. But I

I think there's incentive for all these

people that are anti-

um America, anti-Trump,

uh to kind of in the next two months

make things as messy as they can, as

difficult as they can for him. So, you

know, I think that's that's what's going

on. Whether they'll be successful, I

kind of doubt it. Um you know, but I I

do think that's what you're dealing with

here. It's amazing to me to hear and it

is, you know, our media is pretty much

on the left to [clears throat] hear them

push this narrative that the US is

losing the war and with Iran and that,

you know, Iran's Iran's in bad shape,

very bad shape and we're, you know,

we're squeezing them even more with the,

you know, both the blockade and the

sanctions in a big way. It doesn't

happen overnight, but they are, you

know, you wouldn't want to be in their

shoes. uh there's no way we're losing

this thing. It's just a question of how

long does it take and how much can they

hold out uh to kind of keep things going

till the election. I think that's your

time frame between the election and year

end. You could see a lot happen and you

you may see it before then. They may not

be able to hold out. But I'm just saying

I think people ignore the politics of

this and the fact that we do have, as

sad as it is to say, we do have people

in this country that are undermining us

for their own self-interest. You know,

they want to they want to win, you know,

take control in in November and they're

doing anything they can to make it

difficult for the Republicans to win.

How does um how does the result of the

election impact like from a again from a

scenario perspective? How does a

Republican win differ from a Democratic

win? Um what does that mean? How does

that impact the economy and the markets?

If you know, let's just start off with

the Republicans. If the Republicans

retain the House and the Senate, how

will that differ from if you know, you

have a split government where the

Democrats take control of one of the two

chambers? Yeah, I don't I don't know if

there's any immediate impact because

obviously you you change horses in

January, so the election. So you you may

not see a a quick reaction. You might

see a you know a short sell off like

we're getting today. You might see, you

know, a few days selloff if the

Democrats win. Um but I don't think it

probably doesn't end if the market's

not, you know, is still running and

there's reasons for it to run. I don't

think the election's going to stop that

uh immediately. Um however, I I do say

from a bigger picture standpoint uh and

you know this is not everybody's view by

any means, but it is my view. We are we

are this election is so crucial in terms

of we're a constitutional republic right

now. If the Republicans win, we'll

remain a constitutional republic. If the

Democrats win, if you just listen to

what they have said they're going to do,

like pack the court, like eliminate the

Senate. Now, I realize it's the the

extremists in their party are the ones

pushing that, but they're gaining more

and more of the voice. Um, and, you

know, do away with the filibuster to get

accomplish what they can. you know, make

uh u you bring uh Puerto Rico in as a

having allowing them to have two seats

in the Senate, etc., you're going to

ultimately see uh the end of a

constitutional republic if if their

promises come through. Um so I do think

this election is almost as important as

was the 24 election when Trump came in

in terms of stopping the craziness. I

mean we are we are being driven a you

know for the first time in a in our

history to to the edge of a cliff where

we will lose America as we know it. I

believe and I'm I'm not being I'm not

exaggerating the risk. I think that risk

is very real. Um so people should

understand that they may not like Trump.

They may not like uh some of you know

the fact that we even those that

supported him don't like the fact they

went into Iran etc. Um but you know

people need to realize take you know

take a step back and realize the stakes

are very big in terms of you know

they're obviously obviously his his

capabilities are done if they win

because there you know they're going to

impeach him. They've made that very

clear etc. He's he's going to have a

hard time accomplishing mush. You can

say well that's gridlock that that could

be good for the markets that neither

side gets anything done. They don't

spend more money. Um, but I think

there's so much more at stake than that

this time around. So, I just I just

caution people, um, you know, be careful

kind of voting on emotion with the

anti-Trump type vote and that kind of

thing. Understand there's a much bigger

longer term consequence if if the left

wins this election.

>> So,

>> it's been a paid political announcement.

[laughter]

Well, let's let's talk about the

Treasury as well. The Treasury uh

they've been doing these bond buybacks

now for close to a few weeks, maybe

close to a month now. The latest one

they they announced they well they did

one yesterday at to the tune of $6

billion

uh buying back the Treasury bonds. Uh

now they announced as of last night 18.5

billion is the next bond buyback.

What impact do you see in the long run

in all of these bond buybacks here? Um

how will this kind of impact uh I guess

the treasury markets and the way the

market views

um liquidity like will the market

eventually start to see like will this

eventually start to trickle down into

the rest of the markets and kind of like

it did with QE. Um

>> yeah, it's I mean all they're doing is

changing the maturity um waiting in in

the Treasury portfolio. So you're you're

not creating money, you know, you're

taking uh you're taking long bonds out

of circulation and you you're funding it

with short-term paper. So So there's not

it's not less debt in there. It's not

more money in the system. It's it's kind

of a um a way of sending a message to

the markets that hey we do have some

ability to to influence the market. We

you know you are going to have to deal

with the treasuries efforts to get rates

down. Uh so don't ignore that. But in in

the scheme of things I don't think it's

um you know it can help as a catalyst to

turn things. It's not the big story. The

big story is, and I'm either going to be

right or wrong on this, but the big

story is the economy is slowing down,

ultimately heading for a recession and

worse, and that inflation ultimately is

peaking and rolling over, and that, you

know, most of what we've seen here in

the last six months has been more about

oil prices and and that trickling

through to other inflationary items. Um,

so I I I do think ultimately rates are

rolling over, but it's not so much

because of the Treasury. They they can

help a little bit at the inflection

point, I think, but that's about it.

>> Hey guys, quick pause. The US debt has

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like this thing is ready to go

parabolic. And as a result, investors

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the pin comment. And now, let's get back

to the video. So, once we get to the um

what was it you said the 3 to four month

time horizon

uh for the various price target that's

that have been laid out, what happens

then? Then is that when the the global

bust uh occurs is you know three to four

months takes it around December January

around that time.

>> Trying to trying to time a bust is hard.

So I'm not I'm not going to be able to

tell you which which month or even which

quarter it happens but I do think we're

moving towards that. Uh I've said that

obviously for a while that we're heading

towards one. Um you know bust is

something we haven't seen in this

country in you know in 90 years or more.

Um we came close [clears throat] in

20089. So this is something I think can

be worse than that. Um you know trying

to call any kind of time frame on that

is difficult but I'll do it within you

know I do I do think within 2027 you

could see it. Um and once it starts

it'll unwind I think pretty fast. The

big story is the leverage in the system.

You know we've got 330 trillion plus in

debt around the world. uh we've got

derivatives that are through the roof.

We've never been at these levels in

terms of the level of derivative

leverage in the in on the markets. So,

it's it's really a point of what

triggers that unwind. And you never know

that if we knew that, we probably could

kind of postpone it. Um but something's

going to trigger it whether it be a bank

in Europe or banking system in Europe or

Asia or Japan. Uh you know, who knows?

But I think ultimately as we've seen in

past unwinds, you know, 20089 being the

most recent, once it starts going

downhill, it's awfully hard to start

because of that le stop because of that

leverage. So, um, you know, I'm not

saying the market's going to top out and

then we head down the next day. You

know, tops can be a process uh where,

you know, you might be in that top for a

couple months or a few months before you

really see the worst. Or you you could

go to a high, come down 10%, go back up,

either retest that high or halfway back

up, uh then go down, you know, 20 or 30%

and then have another big rally. It's

going to take time. It's not going to be

from top to bottom in a few months. you

know, it's I would guess a bare market's

probably going to be something of the

magnitude of 8 to 12 months. Um, and the

economy probably 12 to 18 months.

>> Any signals that investors should w

watch out for to kind of get a sense of

like how close we are to a global bust?

>> Yeah. Well, I'm I'm a contrarian and so

sentiment is big for me. I've said in

terms of the markets, the the telltale

sign for me is when and you're not

getting it right now. You've got a

pretty big wall of worry again because

of oil prices, because of interest

rates, etc. But when we started to see

it earlier in the summer, but when all

of a sudden um your your strategists on

the street and your you know all the

market analysts on the street,

economists are all raising their targets

and all telling you this thing has years

to run that you know because of AI or

because inflation's rolling over or

because the Fed has now turned more

easy. um any of those things could cause

them to say, "Yeah, this thing has a

couple years to run." Uh there's nothing

on the horizon that that should stop

this. When you hear that kind of

rhetoric where what I call all-in time

type of sentiment where everybody's

bullish, that should be your warning

signal that hey things doesn't mean it's

going to trigger it immediately, but it

does tell you you're you're in that

territory where you know bulliance is

just you know way too high.

Can't can't you also have an instance

where they just

they kind of reenact what we saw in in

like Bimar Germany where you saw the

stock market make new nominal highs

however uh when controlling for the

money supply that was not the case. Can

they not create some sort of QE scenario

some sort of uh liquidity injection to

keep the markets propped up and to give

sort of like this illusion that the

markets are stable? I mean, they've done

it before. Um, like if you chart the S&P

to if you chart the S&P relative to

gold, for example, or to the money

supply, uh, you'll see a different

story. Um, as it relates to like

all-time highs and things of that

nature.

>> Yeah, that's that's really one of the

reasons why I do think um we're not

going to see it is because we did see it

so recently. You know, in 2008,

obviously, we we printed money QE1, QE2,

QE3, and then in 2020, we put out 5

trillion. You know, the Fed put out five

trillion. What you have heard since then

from both both Jay Powell when he was

Fed chair and from Kevin Worsh probably

even more emphatically is we are not

doing that again. We do not want to go

back to pumping money into the system at

those kind of rates and you know zero

interest rate policy. We saw what it

did. We saw you know some of the

problems it caused in terms of the

breaking out of inflation etc. So, and

and Wars is basically a monitorist uh

and has told you he wants to rein in the

balance sheet, the 5 trillion that went

in in 2021.

He wants to bring it back to a

normalized balance sheet. I don't think

he's going to be able to anytime soon

because of um some of the, you know,

issues right now, but that's his goal.

So if he if he's looking to shrink the

balance sheet, he's not about to turn on

the spot and let it go or else he's

really he's going to have a hard time

with himself, I think, in terms of how

he believes. So So I I and I do hear

that a lot is what's what's to stop them

when when you really do start seeing

things break and say the market's down

20%, what's to stop them from printing

money? I think what's going to stop them

is we we don't want to go back there

again, you know? So in other words,

they'll be fighting the last war and

saying, "We know that was a mistake." So

it's going to make them more re

reluctant to ease this time in those

kind of, you know, there'll be some

money put in, I'm sure, but they'll be

slow to do it. They'll be reluctant to

do it in size, which means it's it's

that delay because ultimately they will

do it. It's that delay though where they

say, "Yeah, well, we're not gonna we're

not going to intervene this time

because, you know, it ends badly." It's

that delay where you have, you know, a

month or two or three where they say,

"We can't do that this time that things

can really hit an air pocket and and go

down." So ultimately there will be a

deer in headlights moment where they

realize we you know we got to turn up

turn on the spigots in a big way because

the financial system around the world is

starting to un unwind big time. You will

see that. I just think it's going to

take time to get to that rightsiz policy

and in that time it takes uh things you

know it's an air pocket. Things can go

down in a vacuum. once they print money

um they can stabilize the markets.

There's a long lag before it turns the

economy up again. So um you know I I

think you're going to see um you you

could see an 80% drop in the market is

what I have said uh from top to bottom

over the course of eight or 10 months.

>> And it'll be like I said it won't be a

straight line. You'll go down, let's say

you go down 30 or 40%. Then you'll have

a, you know, couple month rally,

probably a big one, retrace 50% of that,

go down again, another, you know, 30 or

40% uh from from that level, uh, and

then you might have a third, you know, a

second bare market rally before you have

a final drop to a bottom. So, it's

definitely not going to happen in one

straight line.

>> Yeah, that's never the case. What about

like the these fiscal and sorry monetary

decisions? Don't they because of the

political nature here? Um we we kind of

like look at things from at most

two-year time horizons because that's

you know you have an election every two

years.

Wouldn't it be wouldn't the incentives

lie for them to

print money in the moment just because

it's politically expedient? And they're

really I mean they're really kind of

forced to do so just to not uh give up

the next election to the Democrats or or

something like that.

>> Yeah. Well, I I don't think politics I

don't think the the next election cycle

is going to really um it may coincide

with that, but they're going to be much

more focused because this is a global

bust if I'm right. Um they're going to

be much f more focused on, you know,

saving the financial system. And I think

that happens. If I'm right that the bus

starts probably first half next year, um

then you know you're you're probably

talking about late 27

um where they're they're going to be you

know really pumping money fast. Um maybe

maybe even before that. So so you know

that would coincide with if they were

doing it for election reasons, they'd

probably start then anyway. So I think

it'll you know it's not that one's going

to I I think the the um unwind the

financial um deleveraging you know the

banking system failing is going to be

the trigger not so much you know gearing

up for the election that will you know

coincide I think but there going to have

much bigger fish to fry.

Could something like something external

like something in Japan, say the the yen

carry trade continuing to unwind. If you

look at the yen carry trade right now,

it's it was at a high of about 4

percentage points the spread between the

US 10ear and the Japanese 10ear. Now

it's at around half of that. It's around

1.8%. If that continues to tighten,

is there like a chance that like some

sort of external factor can

cause some sort of contagion within the

markets or something to do with the

currency markets if the yen continues to

drop and they they need it needs more

interventions? I mean, how will that

kind of impact? Yeah, I have said I

think Japan is a wild card in in this

coming bust that that you know you you

had decades where they they basically

said we we are moneti monetizing the

debt. We you know we're going to keep

our system going by and doing exactly

what everybody else found out in 20089

doesn't work. You know if you print too

much money it comes back to haunt you.

They've been able to, partly because

they're such a homogeneous society,

partly because I think their their

businesses are very efficient, they've

been able to hold off inflation for a

lot longer than, you know, we normally

see, excuse me. But, um, now you're

starting to see inflation break out, uh,

interest rates break out, and I think

it's just beginning. So that they are

certainly a a likely candidate, a

wildcard candidate here for being the

reason for the bust or the you know the

trigger for a bust or certainly a big

component of the bust. I think Japan is

is a uh you know a potential real

problem. Um not so much carry trade. I

you know we had that uh carry trade

unwind in August of a couple years ago

um two or three years ago and I think at

that time it was you know everybody was

taking advantage of the zero interest

rates in Japan and investing elsewhere.

Um they they got caught there. We had

that, if you remember, we had that real

fast selloff and and uh I think it I I

got to believe that an awful lot of

those that were doing that uh learned

their lesson. And so I don't think Japan

as much from a carry trade standpoint is

the risk is just the whole country in

how they've conducted policy um is a

real risk. Carry trade will be part of

it, but I I wouldn't say that's the

primary thing. It's more it's more

monetary policy. Um, you know, they we

didn't we didn't all of a sudden uh find

that money doesn't work, that money

doesn't ultimately cause inflation. I

think it just they were able to keep it

going longer than anybody else has. But

and now they're starting to run into

that, you know, where they can get very

hurt.

>> Understood. Well, I think we covered the

waterfront. Uh, right, David? Anything

else you want to cover before we wrap

up? Um I would just uh talk about AI

because it's been such a big thing

lately. I do think AI is is a p

potential risk. Um you know we're seeing

a lot of obviously

big demands for for building the data

centers and you know the power to go

along with it etc. And you are getting

push back from uh localities you know

communities who don't want it. So all

that's going to be the noise around it I

think for the balance of this market

doesn't stop AI from going higher AI

stocks from going higher here. I do

think there's another, you know, run in

them to new highs. But I do think also

that, you know, looking out beyond that,

AI could be a real problem in terms of,

you know, we maybe got ahead of

ourselves in ter terms of what it could

do. And obviously now we're starting to

hear some of the dire stories of what,

you know, could end our could could end

this society as we know it in the not

too distant future. I don't know about

that but but um I do think AI will be

part of the story on the downside as

well. So um you know it'll be

interesting next year to see what you

know what goes up goes down. Uh what

goes up can come down. So you know I do

think people have to realize that we're

in the latter part of a what I call a

44y year secular bull market that

started in 1982.

Um, and we're, you know, as I remind

people, the Dow in August of 1982 was

780 or 770 something, and it's now, you

know, 54,000

or 50 whatever it is thousand. Um,

and so people have to be aware we've

come a long, long way. And when it does

top out, if this truly is a secular top,

um, you can get hurt bad. So, we're

we're in the last inning or extra

innings. Um, and uh there could be a big

runup here as my targets tell you, but

it can unwind very quickly. So, people

have to be aware of the risks here as

well as the rewards.

>> What do you think of this symbiotic

relationship now that's seemingly been

formed in the last couple of years

between AI and the commodity space? As

you know, hyperscalers are heavily

reliant on energy and various materials

to to manufacture the the chips that

constantly need to be replaced every

couple of years or so. Of course, you've

got the high energy costs, high energy

uh side of things. So, there is a tie

into the commodities complex. If you do

see weakness and selling off in the AI

space, will that filter down to

commodities as well or is that not the

case? What do you Yeah, I think it's

it's it's AI for sure is an influencer

there, you know, an important factor

there, but it's the overall, you know,

if the global economy really um you

know, gets hit hard, you're going to

see, like I said, I have oil going to

$30 in the bust. Uh copper, which I have

a target now, $9 for this cycle, you

know, that could fall by, you know, 70

80%. So um and silver and gold aren't

aren't really so much you know

industrial commodities but you know

silver could fall by 70 or 80% and gold

by 50% certainly. So yeah I think across

the board and all you know industrial

metals um everything I think will will

get hit and it will be a deflationary

bust in my opinion. Um so for sure but

on the other side of the bust and it's

not drawn out like a depression so it's

not three four years of downside it's

you know it'll happen fast uh cleanse

the system to some extent all that money

being printed in response to the bus

will bring us out of it you know in a

pretty quick fashion. So the next cycle

which is probably 28 29 30 31 32 three

um that cycle will be very much a

commodity driven cycle because AI won't

be done um we'll still have chip

shortages uh you know the shortage will

go away to some extent because of the

bust but we'll come back the other side

and still need so commodities of all

kinds I think are going to soar next

cycle whereas this cycle was really a

technology cycle the next cycle I think

is going to very much an industrial

commodity cycle and probably even a

commodities which are starting to act

better. I think next cycle you're going

to see those go through the roof. So you

know this everybody's worried about

inflation here when it's you know 3%

plus and they want it down under two

ultimately they're going to get they're

wishing to see it go down into deflation

next cycle I think inflation go to 25%

by the end of the cycle. So, uh, if

think if people think three and four and

5% inflation is is hard to handle, wait

till they see it run like it did in the

early 80s and then some.

>> 25% year-over-year.

>> If you print the kind of money I think

that's going to be printed to deal with

the global bust because keep in mind the

global bust means banking system is

failing. Banking system is starting to

unwind. if they panic and they say we

got to get money in there and that money

first they put shovel in trillions

doesn't stop it they shovel in more

trillion I think ultimately you're going

to see 20 trillion out of the Federal

Reserve in new money QE um and probably

proportionally out of every central

bank. So you could have 50 trillion in

new money go into the system.

>> It will trigger demand through the roof

for those things in this country.

Obviously we're reshoring. We're

building plants for AI. We're building

new semiconductor plants. You know, we

got we got to worry about replacing some

of the Taiwan capacity if China takes it

out. So there's going to be a lot of

demand for steel for you know all all

the construction products all the um

commodities of all kinds metals of all

kinds um and those things are going to

be demand through the roof and supply is

not something you can just run up.

Supply takes decades to to rebuild you

know to build up. So you're going to

have because of the money printing,

you're going to have demand run up in

two and three years and you can't you

can't match it with supply. Supply is

going to be way short of what demand is.

And the only thing can give that is

price. So price will go through the

roof. Um and and obviously it'll flow

through to wages. It'll flow to through

to you know consumer products and

everything else. So ultimately and and I

think whale can go to $500 in that

environment. So if it goes to 30 or

anything close to 30 in the bust,

five, seven years out from the bust, you

could be looking at $500 oil. Imagine

what that does in terms of what happens

beyond that, you know?

>> Oh, yeah. $500 oil. I actually was

looking at this chart the uh the other

day. Like if you look at oil in various

stages throughout history, it's always

gone from different phase stages. So if

let's look at this here really quick.

This is US oil price going back to 1861.

And you'll notice that you go through

these various ranges and you break

through them and you never come back.

For example, in 1861 you were bounded

between 63 to $422.

uh post 1948

uh you were at around $269 to $1267.

From 74 to 04 or so 03 you were looking

at around $12 to $40 oil. And then this

is the current era that we're in where

we're kind of been bound around 35 to

140. So if the next era follows suit and

I just copied and pasted one of the

rectangles here. I mean, this takes you

around an upper bound of 500 or so.

>> Yep. That's interesting. That way. Yeah.

And if you remember that low point in

this last um cycle was down into

negative territory for a day. You know,

it did get down into the single digits

and the teens. So, so if it goes to 30

this time, it's still, you know, above

that and then from that point takes you

up to that 500. So, yeah, I think I

think that's what we're looking at.

Again, it's probably not going to happen

over 20 years. I think it's going to

happen over less than 10.

>> Fascinating stuff. Anything else uh you

want to touch on, David, before we wrap

up?

>> Yeah. No, I think that's that's pretty

good for today. That'll that'll have

people scratching their heads.

>> Thousand%. Where can people find you,

David?

>> Um yeah, I'm on uh X every day. Uh my

handle is at uh Daveh contrarian. Um and

then I also write a quarterly letter

that is by subscription comes with a

cost. Um that is all you know it's a

macro letter with my market. uh you know

as I say in in Exaland I can you know

the tweets are small you know are short

so you know you get a lot of information

out there kind of piece by piece in in a

long form letter I can describe my

rationale better so so some people like

that yeah you can get a lot on on X if

you want it for free if you want to pay

for something beyond that I do have a

letter

>> Awesome well uh we'll post your links

down below for people to check out check

them all out uh check them tag Sorry.

Check them out everyone. Got a little

tongue tied here. Um, and yeah, like,

subscribe, comment down below. Comment

go David go in the comments section. Let

me know your thoughts on this video. Did

you agree? Did you disagree? Uh, let me

know what you agreed on. But you've got

to let me know why you agreed or

disagreed um on a certain topic. And uh

yeah, check me out on Substack as well,

capitals.ubstack.com.

And if you'd like to diversify your IRA

into gold and silver, check out our good

partners at Noble Gold. I have a link to

them down below as well. So, with all

that said, I'll catch you guys next

time. Have a good one. Bye. Thanks,

Annie.