Bank Earnings: Nervousness Amidst Healthy Numbers

Despite the banks reporting healthy numbers, their stock performance suggests nervousness about the broader economy.

JP Morgan: Robust quarter, benefiting from volatility which allows them to provide for growing risk, particularly in credit card lending. They've set aside a billion in loss reserves due to trading gains and First Republic gain.
Wells Fargo: Weaker net interest income and demand, with a slight release in reserves. Their loan mix is different from JP Morgan
Economic Outlook: Uncertainty prevails due to tariffs and other unknowns. JP Morgan is factoring in more of a downside scenario, though their base case remains benign.
Consumer Spending: There's been front-loading of spending to get ahead of uncertainty, but the data is only through March. The real impact is happening now.
Investment Banking: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are cutting investment bankers early, indicating a slowdown in the banking fee pipeline, highlighting the immediate effect of uncertainty on investment banking businesses. The impact on the consumer economy may take longer to materialize.